Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

#4,981
Apr 8, 2011 6:45pm Apr 8, 2011 6:45pm

siewhf
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 270 Posts

Fridays CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS report showed speculators turning aggressively AGAINST THE YEN. After six weeks in a net long position including +7.0K last week yen positioning fell to a net short 43.2K contracts. AUD continues to be the darling of futures traders, hitting FRESH RECORD +90.9K NET LONGS. The net long euro position expanded to 58.9K from 56.6K and the market remains short of the U.S. dollar but positions were trimmed slightly. The CFTC will be mostly be closed if the U.S. government shuts down, meaning this will be the final Commitment of Traders report until a budget is passed.

#4,982
Apr 18, 2011 11:05pm Apr 18, 2011 11:05pm

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

hey everyone!!

I'm new to forum, I've only recently started to really use the COT to enter trades. I've noticed just how powerful it really can be. Seriously amazing =)

I have a question, I believe, its the large traders (hedge funds) that us small traders in comparison should be following right? So when the commercial traders are net short, and the large traders are net long, I should be buying right?

I noticed an example not to long ago when commercial traders were net long, so I thought short, but NZD kept rising against the USD. It was really interesting to watch. Any thoughts?

#4,983
Apr 18, 2011 11:11pm Apr 18, 2011 11:11pm

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

Quoting SanMiguel

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Any thoughts on AUDUSD, GBPUSD?
Both look like shorts from the COT report but we have gold surging still (bullish AUD) and also there is the recent speculation about GBP interest rate rises causing bullish GBP price action.
?

Ignored

I still have a bullish bias based upon the COT report. It looks like AUDUSD is building up for a breakout. I'm just waiting to see what will happen. I'm waiting for the market to prove to me its ready to start trending.

#4,984
Apr 19, 2011 8:59am Apr 19, 2011 8:59am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting eurisko

Disliked

hey everyone!!

I'm new to forum, I've only recently started to really use the COT to enter trades. I've noticed just how powerful it really can be. Seriously amazing =)

I have a question, I believe, its the large traders (hedge funds) that us small traders in comparison should be following right? So when the commercial traders are net short, and the large traders are net long, I should be buying right?

I noticed an example not to long ago when commercial traders were net long, so I thought short, but NZD kept rising against the USD. It was really...

Ignored

It's not as simple as it seems, I like to look at large institutes.There are multiple setups that I use, for instance I use "COT Div" (I call them type I and II depends on direction of div) , here I posted a type I COT div on Swissy. One other setup that I use when there is a switch in net positioning, like USDJPY in this example, I try to get into the position by use of S/R or fib.

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#4,985
Apr 19, 2011 9:55am Apr 19, 2011 9:55am

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

hey shahab8b

Interesting chart you have there. I'm now starting to look at it on timingcharts.com. Can you tell me what your exact settings are on it? I tried to replicate it on the site, but I'm still missing a few things. What are your settings?

Like you said, you use the futures charts to time when to enter into the market right?

#4,986
Apr 19, 2011 9:58am Apr 19, 2011 9:58am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting eurisko

Disliked

hey shahab8b

Interesting chart you have there. I'm now starting to look at it on timingcharts.com. Can you tell me what your exact settings are on it? I tried to replicate it on the site, but I'm still missing a few things. What are your settings?

Like you said, you use the futures charts to time when to enter into the market right?

Ignored

on the COT box use only large traders (the green line), for the chart I use candlestick /D channel and RSI

#4,987
Apr 19, 2011 10:38am Apr 19, 2011 10:38am

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

Thanks. I figured out how to look at the chart now. I'm just wondering how to figure out who to follow, while using the COT report, I thought it was a good idea to follow the large traders? But it seems that even the large traders could be on the wrong side of the market. By reading the charts now, it seems that you could follow both?

How do you recommend, that I look at the COT charts correctly?

#4,988
Apr 19, 2011 11:16am Apr 19, 2011 11:16am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting eurisko

Disliked

Thanks. I figured out how to look at the chart now. I'm just wondering how to figure out who to follow, while using the COT report, I thought it was a good idea to follow the large traders? But it seems that even the large traders could be on the wrong side of the market. By reading the charts now, it seems that you could follow both?

How do you recommend, that I look at the COT charts correctly?

Ignored

As I mentioned look at large institutes, it's not just that, you need to come up with a setup, I mentioned here two types of setups, I myself came up with 9 setups. The simple way is to look for 1-net position 2-trend 3-COT index 13 weeks, 4-COT Div 5-COT index 0 or 100 , etc

#4,989
Apr 24, 2011 6:59am Apr 24, 2011 6:59am

dr_who
| Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 411 Posts

This article is one of the best available about COT and it includes free COT indicators and methods that really do work:

http://articles.mql4.com/867

He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another

#4,990
Apr 24, 2011 7:48pm Apr 24, 2011 7:48pm

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

I still have a AUDUSD bullish bias. I will be looking to addon to my position after the AUD CPI comes out on Tuesday.

#4,991
Apr 26, 2011 6:08pm Apr 26, 2011 6:08pm

Forex090909
| Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2011 | 10 Posts

Great thread,

Keep up the great work. Do you use the COT to only confirm entry positions or to you just enter for longer term. e.g. If everyone long USDJPY for example do you wait till it breaks resistance or just get in where you can with large S/L and let the market ride your trade? Thanks

#4,992
Apr 26, 2011 8:34pm Apr 26, 2011 8:34pm

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

AUD CPI came in at 1.6%, this will further push AUD up, along with strong COT bullish sentiment.

I'm looking to enter long, AUDUSD, when I see a decent retracement on the H1 chart.

Note: Took 40 pips pre-spike trade on CPI news release

#4,993
Apr 27, 2011 12:57am Apr 27, 2011 12:57am

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

Quoting Forex090909

Disliked

Great thread,

Keep up the great work. Do you use the COT to only confirm entry positions or to you just enter for longer term. e.g. If everyone long USDJPY for example do you wait till it breaks resistance or just get in where you can with large S/L and let the market ride your trade? Thanks

Ignored

I personally use COT to give me a bias, which will often be weighted along with fundamental factors (rumors, economic or political problems) and technical factors, I do not enter immediately, I wait for the market to prove to me, that its ready to start trending. I use ichimoku for swing trading, i wait for a breakout in either direction, then a retracement which is identified using RSI. I will then either buy the dip or sell the rally and hold that position. I will re-enter and add onto my positions, if the market presents the opportunity.

By the way, I'm curious to know what you mean by "everyone long USDJPY", if "everyone" is long, and the large traders (hedge funds) are at their most bullish or bearish then that could mean the trend is about to end, because there is no one else to buy and push the market further up.

#4,994
Apr 28, 2011 5:55pm Apr 28, 2011 5:55pm

euriskofx
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

I was reading an article regarding the fundamental analysis of the U.S. GDP, it came out at 1.8%. Here's a quote from the article...

Quote

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.8% during the first quarter of 2011. Not exactly what the doctor ordered for a still very sick patient. If we were back to a tolerable unemployment rate, an annual GDP growth rate of 1.8% would be a little disappointing but not that unusual for an expansion. The problem is, growth this slow would often mean a rising unemployment rate, the last thing we need at the moment.

Now, as of this post the EUR/USD pair has reached 1.4840. I'm interested in the quote "The problem is, growth this slow would often mean a rising unemployment rate", NFP and the U.S. unemployment rate is coming out next week, due to the disappointing GDP number, I'm expecting to see the EURO continue to rise against the U.S. dollar. I will wait first to see what the weekly COT report says, I will be interested to enter long sometime next week on EUR/USD.

#4,995
Jun 2, 2011 3:35am Jun 2, 2011 3:35am

aghast
| Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

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Cable:

Ignored

Hi,

nice to see you here again. I was observing the same pattern in the cable. do you think a possible support at the few previous lows/highs will hold, so we can try a long for a few quick pips with a new short waiting at the trendline?

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Fortune always favors the brave.

#4,996
Edited 6:01am Jun 8, 2011 2:37am | Edited 6:01am

aghast
| Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts

Quoting aghast

Disliked

Hi,

nice to see you here again. I was observing the same pattern in the cable. do you think a possible support at the few previous lows/highs will hold, so we can try a long for a few quick pips with a new short waiting at the trendline?

Ignored

follow up. trade entered. mental stop in place. target in support area or under it if breached. * price may bump from trendline support. will close 1/2 of position and move mental stop to breakeven.

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Fortune always favors the brave.

#4,997
Jun 23, 2011 2:32am Jun 23, 2011 2:32am

aghast
| Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts

hi,

here is a possible EUR/USD long formation. Support may arise at the TL as shown on the chart, coinciding with multiple lows now support levels. Target will be the resistence TL from the two recent highs. C.O.T still shows net long positions on the EUR/USD with net positive gain from last week date (may change tomorrow when C.O.T data is released). Anyway buy if TL holds with stop under the new formed low around the TL, target upper TL.

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Fortune always favors the brave.

#4,998
Jun 27, 2011 11:22pm Jun 27, 2011 11:22pm

aghast
| Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts

Quoting aghast

Disliked

hi,

here is a possible EUR/USD long formation. Support may arise at the TL as shown on the chart, coinciding with multiple lows now support levels. Target will be the resistence TL from the two recent highs. C.O.T still shows net long positions on the EUR/USD with net positive gain from last week date (may change tomorrow when C.O.T data is released). Anyway buy if TL holds with stop under the new formed low around the TL, target upper TL.

Ignored

SL @ BE or under the low, TP at trendline touch or 50.0% fibo

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