Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

Thanks for your input. The trade is doing well. I am expecting a bit of a retracement though. We'll see how this will pan out. The stock market is shot and so I expect risk tolernce to diminish

We'll see...
Olu

As commented before this index is quietly rallying. We are on the verge of a breakout. This breakout will more than confirm the tanking of the euro as the euro makes up 49% of the index (i think). I said we would nt see 74 in a hurry and now we are attacking 76 area.

Just uploading a weekly chart of the cadjpy with the 13 and 34 emas on them

These MAs have crossed to the downside.
We also had a weekly doji with a high around 85.00 whose low at 83.32 has been broken to the downside. So one ought to be bearish on this one. Note it is a weekly chart

Olu

I have uploaded a daily chart of the xagusd for your consideration

Stoch has turned down.
Price just sitting on the 100sma
recent bearish engulfing candle

As I commented before on this thread, things dont look tooo good for silver. We have has a 'mania' and historically after a mania prices go right to the starting point of the mania. Consider the nasdaq tech bubble. We are nowhere near the bubble highs.

There are, of course, arguments that silver should recover and further rally because of inflation and 'rush to safety'.

Olu

@81.35 (entry 83.10)

Olu

Please find uploaded a daily chart of the SP500 stock index. I have indicated 2 shoulders and the head of a well known formation. What do you think?. By the way it is not a H&S until 1255-1260 area is broken to the downside. If this happens then we are heading for Oct 2004 levels! That is a stock market crash.

The implications are immense:
it means we have seen the highs in this index
It means the us$ will rally hard
it means a world wide recession
It means commodities (crb index) will tank
it means we will have QE3, QE4 etc but it wont crash the us$ as all central banks will be doing the same

it means there will be a tradable opportunity to hedge this downfall

Just my thoughts

1.3483 now.

New Porsche Turbo ??

You dog.




golfer

For the newer folks.

Olu likes close below 100 ema with stoch turning down from 80+ place order at close of daily and stop above 2 x daily ATR.

Trail at daily high + 20pips until taken out.

Nuts and bolts simple folks.


BBO...trend trader !



golfer

I couldnt have put it any clearer Golfer. That's the long and short of it

Olu

We have a breakout to the downside today on this pair. QE3 is being mused therefore the usd should weaken. Mr B is testifying at the moment and the markets are trying to read into everything he says in order to make a decision about the dollar. Before we rub our hands and scream 'continuation' we need to wait for the candle to close...and do our due dilligence

Olu

because of the data. The data has come out and the us$ is slightly weaker.
Benanke is speaking today we need to factor that into whatever trading we want to do.

Olu

Find uploaded a 2h chart of the nasdaq. We have a 'rough' h&s. if it confirms looks for a target of 40 points from the neckline 2331. Bernanke is speaking and the markets are not liking what he is saying at the moment.

Olu

Took a short on this pair looking for a reversion to the downtrend

Olu

Please find uploaded a weekly and monthly chart of cash silver (XAGUSD).

From the get go I want to say I am bearish this pair as I feel there is a bubble forming which was part-deflated recently. This downmove was sharp and account busting and can be clearly seen on the charts. Also generally when bubbles burst price goes back to 'whence it came from'. For cash silver this is the upper 10s!

However that said we are technical traders and I want to say I will be keeping an open mind about silver from now on.

By the way I tried selling this when I saw a doji on the daily chart at overbought levels. Went short when the low of the doji was broken to the downside. The long and short of the trade was that I closed out early and ended up 'donating' to the forex cloud out there.


Now some analysis.

Weekly Chart:
I have uploaded a weekly chart with the stochastic (8,3,3) on it. It has the 100ema on it as well. I have drawn some lines in red on the chart to help with analysis. Note the following:

Price is above the 100ema (this is bullish-dont forget this is a weekly chart as well)
Stochastic has turned up (this is sooooo bullish - why did I try and sell this thing?)
Price itself was for the last 9 weeks between 32.80 and 39.20 area. All that faffing about in that range. Now price is threatening a breakout to the upside. A close outside the box is an indication of intent to travel further north. It has the support of the stochastics.

Monthly Analysis:
The monthly chart also has the Stochastics (8,3,3) on it and the ATR(14)
Price has had a run up from 10 all the way to 49 area in 2 years! A lot of the run up happened recently and we had this massive push down. That down candle is huge. After that we had an inside 'candle' the high of which has been taken out. Now I am not happy with the stoch pointing down as this conflicts with the weekly chart. However the downmove was treacherous and it would take time to bend that down stoch back upwards to agree with the weekly. In fact you can see the blue line starting to curve upwards...

Fundamental Analysis:
The main support this commodity has is the expectation of QE3, QE4 etc. If the value of the us$ is to be eroded we need something that will be tangible that will keep its value. It cant be paper money. It cant be food crops but something that is not limitless in quantity like paper money. Gold and Silver are good candidates - hence the prospects of a rally in these metals. If money is printed by Bernanke we could rocket past the old highs at 49. And now we have hints that this will be done. The markets will push for this till it gets it. How will the markets push for this? By falling. And falling some more. Then what was being discussed will have to be done. Gold will rocket too !


What do we take from this? Keep a look out for new trends or the continuation of old ones. In silver and any other instrument you trade. Stay out of congestion zone trading - except if you are comfortable and experienced with that. Your account will only be chopped to pieces. Real value will be destroyed in the coming months (if there is QExx) and trading income will have to act as our hedge against these losses. In fact if we catch a good trend or two we might even come out not only hedging our losses but making a handsome profit too.

Watch over your account. Only accounts that have something in them when required can take advantage of any trades when they come along. Participating in a bubble is not a bad thing as long as you get out before the collapse.

Sorry for the big post. But I have to unload what I am carrying around in my head before it explodes!



Have a great weekend

Olu

Closed the trade for a loss

Good job on your Silver analysis! Back in late April when we were in the 49 Area I set my TP at 50 (I had bought around 34) and watched it crash taking most of my profit with it!
I ended up taking some off at around 45 and buying again at 34. I'll buy again on the next pull back because in my opinion long term is very bullish...

I'm holding Gold and now that it has made a new record high I'll wait for a pull back and buy again.

I should mention that I trade both with ETF's in my retirement account to avoid the terrible US tax man for a few more years....

Well done on your trades on this silver. I will be looking at ways to get long if there is any more hint of QExxx

Olu

Today is a day for consolidation, reflection and profittaking. Even Silver is retracing a bit. The Stock market is up in Europe and America also promises some relief

However the issues have not gone away. And One thing I have noticed with these markets is that the falls are very sudden and terrific. You look at you charts and say to yourself that 'I will revisit this pair higher at x.xxx area' but you find that the markets either do not get there before it turns or it gets there for a fleeting moment when you are at work. To add insult to injury the markets fell away all the way to where you wanted to take profits - without you in it!

What can a trader do to reduce this occurence?

A friend of mine - GolferFx advises using options. Pay your premiums and sit tight. This method is quite nice when there is a lot of volatility and the ups and down are making you reach for antacids

Another way is limit orders. Set you entry points, stop loss and take profit levels and walk away. You then come back and check out where you stand.

Olu

Update on Ecad.

Look out below.


golfer

I hear you. I part took profit on my position. To the point that I only have a miniscule position in there now. I have to find a place to reload safely. Thanks for the chart Golfer. Much appreciated

Olu