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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #24,361
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:35am Jul 5, 2011 7:35am
Guys, I've downloaded all the relevant stuff from this thread, videos included, andI plan to start reading and watching it at the next weekend. I basically like the frame I quickly looked at. Sorry for sounding stupid but before I embark myself on such a huge task, can someone please answer a couple of questions? I've noticed the thread starter hasn't posted here for ages and also the number of posts has noticeably reduced; this is usually a bad sign. Can you please confirm you have actually used this system on live accounts and it is actually profitable? Thanks in advance to whomever will reply.
  • #24,362
  • Jul 5, 2011 2:34pm Jul 5, 2011 2:34pm
Well, although I would still love some feedback, I think I've found the answer to my question here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post1857100
Phillip's statement is very heart warming indeed...
  • #24,363
  • Jul 7, 2011 1:24pm Jul 7, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting espinozafer
Try to calibrate your MACD. The classic is 12,26,9. But try to find the sense of the data with a heavier MAcd Histogramé .
52,24,18 or
78,36,27

Personally, I use the last calibration for my plattform
Hi, yeah I've actually been using a 50,200,13 MACD Histogram for my trading, since I use the 50 and 200 EMA to determine the trend.

Using RMI or Stochastics or MACD Histo:
50 above 200 I go long on pullbacks.
50 below 200 I go short on peaks.

Only if there is divergence between two nice highs or lows do I trade countertrend. That's my strategy.
  • #24,364
  • Edited Jul 8, 2011 7:51am Jul 7, 2011 4:44pm | Edited Jul 8, 2011 7:51am
Here is a weekly chart and the daily. The weekly chart shows a gradual up move for the EUR. Currently, you can see that we are in a bit of consolidation period with good support on the 21 MA/green.

Next chart is the daily. You can see the consolidation period better indicated by the red support and resistance lines. Also one thing to note is the hammer daily candle showing a probable bottom.

Personally I'm looking for a long position that will break out of the consolidation period. Another thing to note, when I'm in a consolidation period I don't pay as much attention to the moving averages. Remember TC's stand for a trend continuation and we currently are not trending

Edit: Don't forget the jobs report is out this morning. We also are testing the lows of that daily hammer

Edit 2: In on news at 4275, but just on a practice account and now out at 4336
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,365
  • Jul 8, 2011 12:43pm Jul 8, 2011 12:43pm

Remaining in the Spirit of the Strategy


EurJpy/20:00 candle-July 5th,2011/GMT+2


...this is to show my analysis on the previous weekend, and how that was able to give me a righteous trade opportunity during the week-the first week of July 2011...If you can find time to do this appropriately every week, you will become a super forcaster...although you might not be right all the time, but as you proceed, you will by yourself correct yourself...a natural phenomenon...

Analysis

Daily time frame:

We are or price is within that purple trendline parallel to each other, price is ranging within that boundry, and the week closed with a bullish candle kissing the top of the trendline, from the indication on the chart, that top trendline is a strong resistance level for price...therefore I began to see it happen ahead of time-price finding resistance at that level giving me an apportunity to go short...

With this in mind, and to reduce my risk should it happen as anticipated, I switch to our time frame=the H4: I would be looking for a nice entry so as to enter early within the Daily candle or bar if it formed...

Right: According to the date above which the trade was ripe, just as anticipated, the H4 gave that opportunity: Price did find resistance at that daily trendline and giving an opportunity to go short with a bearish engulfing candle...it was also MACD divergence aswell{i did not show it}...also a sHs on the MACD also...but price action alone confirmed that move...

Take Profit Analysis:
A lot of approach can be applied. But what I did was use the Fibonacci tool, I draw the Fibo on the Daily frame and profits were according to the Fibonacci levels-
38.2/365 ema
50.0/89 sma
61.8 levels...respectively... these levels are clearly seen on the H4 chart

Comment: ...there is also another scenario that would have happened...I did have it in mind actually, but I gave the former more regard than this one: the scenario is that nothing stops the price to break that resistance line which I established on the Daily frame...so my plan was that if price breaks it, I will get to the H4 time frame, wait for the price to pull back to this trendline finding some sort of support there, and starts to move away, probably making a TC on the MACD, and that will definitely be my entry to the up side, ie going Long....

PLEADE SEE CHART FOR FUTHER DETAILS ON THIS TRADE...it is self explanatory on the charts...

God bless Phillip

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-larger view-showing daily trendline on H4 frame+overall.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #24,366
  • Jul 8, 2011 1:05pm Jul 8, 2011 1:05pm
...this is a quick update on the trade posted above....to the glory of God everything worked out perfectly...

SEE CHART....


God bless Phillip

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,367
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:32pm Jul 8, 2011 2:32pm
it is a clear explanation on how it has to be done. well done! thank you for the explaination.
Yvon
  • #24,368
  • Edited Jul 9, 2011 6:44am Jul 8, 2011 10:08pm | Edited Jul 9, 2011 6:44am
Quoting alright
Well, although I would still love some feedback, I think I've found the answer to my question here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post1857100
Phillip's statement is very heart warming indeed...
Hi alright,

I was lurking this thread few yrs back It was very hard for me to understand at that time. I gave up this system about 2 yrs ago(but I told myself I will be back to study this thread again when I am ready) & during that time & later on I was searching for the best system to suit me which I have found none but at least along the way I have learned manythings " patient, disclipine, price action & some basic stuffs."

Here I am now, Many thanks to Raymond(Morelands) is still around.
I can recall few yrs back there were Palmer http://www.fxtradeblog.com/ ( there r many things to learn from his blog(free) regarding about macd 4hrs system, Saka(now full time trader- in his profile), Ira & many more. Why this thread is very quiet bcos Phillip is seldom around here.

As a newbie(already 5 yrs lol) I understand the problems that all the newbies are facing so at least I can guide them some direction may be it helps. at least nowaday I'm making pips.

Why this system is good bcos it teachs you - how to trade the market in every conditions which most traders need "trend, counter trend, range & breakout trades"

These r guidlines Please understand I'm not trying to teach you or showing off. Put it this way we r exchanging ideas.

After I came back to this thread this time I was trying to trade everythings - trend, counter trend, range & breakout trades then there r so many thing in my head and with my full time work - too heavy & too much lol.

So what I'm going to do now is :-
1. Stick to one pair only( the most is 2) IT's very important WHY? bcos you know what is going on with the market on that pair even your eyes are closing or you are sleeping lol.
2. backtest TC(trend continue trade) again. and go live with micro lot. Note I will skip the demo bcos I've done that. " live with micro lot would be interesting".
For Fresh Newbies to this thread please do demo first before go live (as I can recall Phillip said backtest about 6 months datas then demo 3 months or at lest 30 trades) - learning about patient & disclipine, you will understand later on what I mean.

3. then move on (backtesting,demo & live with micro lot) one by one counter trend trade (RT,RB,DT,DB & sHs)... range & breakout trade....and so on.

Raymond or anyone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Infact I hardly post the thread but I understand most problem the newbies are facing which I've been through. At least I can give them some ideas. Was thiinking for a short note it became long & Long note Sorry.

Cheers,

Peed.
  • #24,369
  • Jul 9, 2011 1:55pm Jul 9, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting novice198
Hi NaustingFx,

4 candles back we also had a signal to go short (break of channel and then retest and agian going down), but that trade failed. Any way we could have avoided taking that trade.
Cheers
Novice
*******************************************************

Hello Novice198


...hello fellow trader, it was nice reading your analysis. Please I would like to see charts added to your analysis another time you post your contributions...I tried to know the currency pairs you are talking about and the time or day you took the trade, but I could not...so please do include chart(S) another time, it will help....

How is your day going? I wish you success in your trading and in life.
My greetings to your household.
Bye for now.
Cheers!
  • #24,370
  • Edited 5:46pm Jul 9, 2011 5:27pm | Edited 5:46pm
Welcome back Peed. We all struggle to get this far(being profitable) and it is nice to know you stuck it out. Way to go
Raymond

Quoting peed
Hi alright,

I was lurking this thread few yrs back It was very hard for me to understand at that time. I gave up this system about 2 yrs ago(but I told myself I will be back to study this thread again when I am ready) & during that time & later on I was searching for the best system to suit me which I have found none but at least along the way I have learned manythings " patient, disclipine, price action & some basic stuffs."

Here I am now, Many thanks to Raymond(Morelands) is still around.
I can recall few yrs back there were Palmer[url="http://www.fxtradeblog.com/"]...
  • #24,371
  • Edited 6:01pm Jul 9, 2011 5:44pm | Edited 6:01pm
Here is the demo trade I did off of the news. I explained in earlier posts that I was looking for long trades based off the weekly and daily chart. The news provided me the opportunity that just looked ripe for the picking. I'm still not confident enough to do it live, but with enough practice and time I will. Below is the 5 min chart with the red lines indicating my entry and SL. The entry cande is a nice hammer. The second chart is the 4 hr and shows why I took profit when I did...the 21 was support and now would be resistance. The 5 min candle was within that green bar on the 4 hr. If you have more interest in trading the news, Welshguy provided some great videos on Youtube. It is under Sionsmith.

I still think price is going to go up and out of this consolidation period. I'm basing that on Elliott Wave theory. One interesting thing to note is that every wave in this consolidation period has been a retracement of 76.4 of the previous wave, pretty cool and something that frequently happens with triangles
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 070811-demotrade.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #24,372
  • Jul 11, 2011 2:33am Jul 11, 2011 2:33am
Fellow Traders,

Thank you very much for keeping this thread active. I have just spent a week absorbing the content and method of Phillip Nel's strategy.

Can anyone tell me if his system is still in use by learned traders, the above post would imply that it certainly is and in pretty much the form described by Phillip.

I also notice that he has not posted here for a while and that as of this morning the site www.fxtradeblog.com (which I believed was set up by Phillip) shows a message saying "site expired".

I am embarking on using this strategy as a mainstay for my trading plan so I would really appreciate any words of update that anyone may be able to supply.

Many thanks.
  • #24,373
  • Jul 11, 2011 2:47am Jul 11, 2011 2:47am
Quoting alicimo
Fellow Traders,

Thank you very much for keeping this thread active. I have just spent a week absorbing the content and method of Phillip Nel's strategy.

Can anyone tell me if his system is still in use by learned traders, the above post would imply that it certainly is and in pretty much the form described by Phillip.

I also notice that he has not posted here for a while and that as of this morning the site www.fxtradeblog.com (which I believed was set up by Phillip) shows a message saying "site expired".

I...
I asked a similar question a few posts back but I never got any reply. This other site is in Phillip's profile http://www.phillipnel.co.za but it looks like its commercial, so I don't know. I hope someone else will answer.
  • #24,374
  • Jul 11, 2011 3:34am Jul 11, 2011 3:34am
Quoting alright
I asked a similar question a few posts back but I never got any reply. This other site is in Phillip's profile XXX but it looks like its commercial, so I don't know. I hope someone else will answer.
My opinion, this strategy will continue to works because it base on emotion (rhythm of the market). Thread was start on 2007 and some member still post in this thread, meaning this strategy is proven enough. Most thread just die after couple of months

http://www.fxtradeblog.com/ was setup by Palmer, he was using 4H as to get the whole idea of what is going on and using smaller time frame for entry. Not recommend for newbie ( like me ... )

The site that you mention is commercial, Phillip was out from this thread for quite some time because of that. Eventually he come back
You can find the whole story somewhere in this thread.

Keep reading
  • #24,375
  • Jul 11, 2011 4:00am Jul 11, 2011 4:00am
Dear alright and ydaudw, thank you for your replies

I assumed that the 4 Hour MACD strategy was still extant because of the posts above from members and the fact that it is based on sound and enduring methodology - price action.

Thanks for the link http://www.phillipnel.co.za - just looked at it and it includes a 4 HOUR MACD summary video from Phillip Nel and details of a "Combo Box" deal of smaller time-frame strategies - anyone have any information/experience of the Combo Box ?

Ydaudw, I will continue to read through the posts so thanks- going to take some time to get fully updated as just finished the recommended reading list outlined in Post No 1.

Thanks again
  • #24,376
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:28am Jul 11, 2011 6:28am
Sorry All, another Question if I may,

I notice that Phillip tends to trade (would not say recommend as such) EURUSD and GBPUSD for the 4 hour MACD strategy. Does anyone know if he recommends any other pairs, or Does anyone have experience of other pairs that are successful with the strategy. I was looking to perhaps select 4/5 pairs to monitor and trade over the month?

Thanks
  • #24,377
  • Jul 11, 2011 5:27pm Jul 11, 2011 5:27pm
Well, it looks like the next one will be short, not long on the EUR. That just goes to show you that you should wait for conformation of your theory before you place a trade. Theory alone is not enough. I've learn that lesson in the past.
Raymond
  • #24,378
  • Jul 11, 2011 5:33pm Jul 11, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting alicimo
Sorry All, another Question if I may,

I notice that Phillip tends to trade (would not say recommend as such) EURUSD and GBPUSD for the 4 hour MACD strategy. Does anyone know if he recommends any other pairs, or Does anyone have experience of other pairs that are successful with the strategy. I was looking to perhaps select 4/5 pairs to monitor and trade over the month?

Thanks
Phillip does follow the AUD/USD, the swizzy, and EUR/JPY and one other one. However you should be careful if you are new. I would recommend you trade 1, or 2 pairs at most, until you become profitable on them consistantly. Plus you should be able to see the major time frames in your head with possible future scenarios. I know you want to make $$$ and lot of it quickly, we all do, but be wise about it
Just my 2 cents
Raymond
  • #24,379
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:44am Jul 12, 2011 3:44am
Dear Morelands (Raymond)

Thanks for your wise words. 2 is quite enough I agree, and two will have ample opportunities over a month. EUR$ would seem to be an obvious one, would you choose AUDUSD as another (or Cable?)
Thanks
Nigel
  • #24,380
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:57am Jul 12, 2011 6:57am
In Phillip's early days, if I am correct, he traded the GBP and EUR.
Raymond

Quoting alicimo
Dear Morelands (Raymond)

Thanks for your wise words. 2 is quite enough I agree, and two will have ample opportunities over a month. EUR$ would seem to be an obvious one, would you choose AUDUSD as another (or Cable?)
Thanks
Nigel
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