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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #98,101
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:32am Jul 10, 2011 8:32am
Quoting biDc
Confluences of FR + PPZ + BRN 96/96.5 + 150EMA. Touch trade possibility?
your fibs are not correct (at least for the validation of your setup). you are using fib retracements. therefore only the fibs for the last swing and his retracement are important.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #98,102
  • Jul 10, 2011 10:04am Jul 10, 2011 10:04am
After very weak nonfarm numbers we area seeing fly to safety and chf is getting bought again. This setup looks interesting and 1.1970 is the key level here.
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  • #98,103
  • Jul 10, 2011 10:25am Jul 10, 2011 10:25am
Quoting aserbfx
eur/gbp
beob. but coming in a nice support-zone with fib, minor rn and s/r.
will take a look for a long on h4 or d1 at around 0.8850.
A quick question- Is it safe to go long on BEOB instead of BUOB? Everything looks fine here except BEOB.
Thanks,
Vinay
  • #98,104
  • Jul 10, 2011 10:32am Jul 10, 2011 10:32am
Quoting aserbfx
your fibs are not correct (at least for the validation of your setup). you are using fib retracements. therefore only the fibs for the last swing and his retracement are important.
I see thanks!

Last one on my watchlist
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  • #98,105
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:07am Jul 10, 2011 11:07am
Quoting biDc
I see thanks!

Last one on my watchlist
yes, i like it.

just one comment (and this time not about your fibs :-) ):
here , divergence is not valid before we see an upbar in the macd-histogramm. because the price can still continue to fall adn therefore the macd-histogramm can fall below the previous low.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #98,106
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:11am Jul 10, 2011 11:11am
cnl on weekly.
these are setups i adore: strong bullish trend. nice rectangle. all highs are very close together (within a range of 4 cents).
volume is falling, so the stock may take some time to cut through.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #98,107
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:14am Jul 10, 2011 11:14am
Quoting aserbfx
yes, i like it.

just one comment (and this time not about your fibs :-) ):
here , divergence is not valid before we see an upbar in the macd-histogramm. because the price can still continue to fall adn therefore the macd-histogramm can fall below the previous low.
Interesting point about histogram. Maybe I should add this little rule to my trading plan too. Thanks!
  • #98,108
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:54am Jul 10, 2011 11:54am
Quoting aserbfx
negative. because in a sideways market. no swing. and coming into a support-area and around 86.20.
note that the fibs are for a retracement of the current move. the 61.8 you mentioned is the fib for the uptrend since april 2011 (pic1). there the pair found resistance and retraced. it is not valid for a pullback of the shorter downtrend.
for the current move (here this week) take a look at the second pic. you can enter here at the 50, 61.8, up to you.
In fact, I am short on AUDJPY based on H4. I am currently in negative.. but I think it will eventually hits 85 area.
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  • #98,109
  • Jul 10, 2011 12:18pm Jul 10, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting aserbfx
yes, i like it.

just one comment (and this time not about your fibs :-) ):
here , divergence is not valid before we see an upbar in the macd-histogramm. because the price can still continue to fall adn therefore the macd-histogramm can fall below the previous low.
Ah gotcha. Thanks again!
  • #98,110
  • Jul 10, 2011 12:37pm Jul 10, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting J.W. Holmes
Hey vinayn, I am cautious of a short here. The 61 fib and close above the 8850 kinda supports a retracement back higher IMO. If you played the BEOB short it would be more of a continuation play since its in the middle of a bearish move. The 8850 is a ppz so I'd be cautious putting an order right there hoping that support becomes resistance. Hope that makes sense. If I played this as a continuation short i would have wanted to see a close below 8850.

Edit: On the weekly I see a two week pin bar. If I were shorting this pair I would do it from the...
I do recognize a two week PB on weekly.

Shape and size of the PB looks good. But it has no space.. Trading into box.
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  • #98,111
  • Jul 10, 2011 3:59pm Jul 10, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting Gpfx
Hello All,

This is my first post ever so please bear with me.

Firstly I would just like to say how good this thread is and the quality of information that is provided is excellent, so many thanks for that as I am learning a great deal.

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have been demo trading the J16 method for about a month now (on daily only) and so far doing well as I have no losers (which is unbelievable), however at...

Hey there partner,

Good to have you posting up on the thread. Keep it up. Active participation will take tons of time off of the learning curve (If only I could have figured that one out)

Don't have much time to post a reply, but here it what I am seeing on this one. This would not be an ideal level 101 trade. The main reason for this is the bar not being at a swing low to go in for the buy. You are playing off of some fairly serious areas of resistance. In this instance the trade may or may break through and the resistance may or may not turn into support. If you have not become proficent at playing the basic bars at swing highs and lows then work on that so that you may then head into level 201 trades with a solid base of knowlege and understanding.

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That having been said this is not a trade I would really want to be in until we broke those 3 previous bar highs. This also has a look to it of being a head and shoulders at the moment. That would not be conducive to trading up.

Anything is tradable if it fits your strategy, but make sure that you know what the strategy is. Don't trade hopes and prayers. That is what the 95% that fail trade. J16 is about finding an edge using PA in the right place.

Ryan
  • #98,112
  • Jul 10, 2011 4:05pm Jul 10, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting Gpfx
...
Please comment on the daily long setup considering the weekly PB.

Many thanks.

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I am also going to get long on the break of the pin bar, the reason for my trade is that it is bouncing off my 21 day HL/2 EMA. in a trending market, I think buying on such a MA pull back is the right thing to do.

if you are concerned about the most recent highs, I would suggest watching out the 97.5 level which is the most recent high, (the PB on the weekly). I wouldn't worry too much about the BRN of 97 in this case.

just my two cents.
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  • #98,113
  • Jul 10, 2011 4:33pm Jul 10, 2011 4:33pm
Gungriffin, Halfstep,

Many thanks for your comments.

I have now decided not to take this trade mainly in the intrest of getting into the habit of only taking A+ trades.

Another point I didn’t notice until after my post is that there is divergance in the daily MACD.

Thanks again
  • #98,114
  • Edited 5:00pm Jul 10, 2011 4:40pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting cprao
In fact, I am short on AUDJPY based on H4. I am currently in negative.. but I think it will eventually hits 85 area.
same trade(because it makes sense, not technical - the weekly pinbar is pathetic); wanted to add another half at 87, but probably I'll stick to half a position on aud/usd I still have... since it gapped down(though it should fill, but probably won't reach 87).

target 85(could be 84.3 with part of it, but probably I'll unload all at 85 - loaded 1st half at 86.6).

sl(if I'd have hard sl) would probably be 88 or 88.7. I'll start "evasive manouvres" at 88 to get out.


regarding chf/jpy - 96.5 was a tested value 10 years ago too. 96.5 should be pretty relevant.
  • #98,115
  • Jul 10, 2011 5:00pm Jul 10, 2011 5:00pm
Interesting one that I thought that I would throw up here. Not sure that I would really want to take this. Looks like it may be taking off without me though, but that is fine. Main thought on this is that it is a bit more sideways than I would prefer, but it is bouncing almost right off of the TL... Would be looking to move my stop by the time that it hits .8300
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  • #98,116
  • Jul 10, 2011 5:52pm Jul 10, 2011 5:52pm
This I find interesting; gbpcad daily BUOB at swing low.

Very close FTA at base of previous PB. Maybe we'll get to 1.5600?
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  • #98,117
  • Jul 10, 2011 6:04pm Jul 10, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting snowly
same trade(because it makes sense, not technical - the weekly pinbar is pathetic); wanted to add another half at 87, but probably I'll stick to half a position on aud/usd I still have... since it gapped down(though it should fill, but probably won't reach 87).

target 85(could be 84.3 with part of it, but probably I'll unload all at 85 - loaded 1st half at 86.6).

sl(if I'd have hard sl) would probably be 88 or 88.7. I'll start "evasive manouvres" at 88 to get out.


regarding chf/jpy - 96.5 was a tested value 10 years ago too. 96.5 should...
Are you shroting based on weekly or you already shorted based on weekly ?
I believe 86.90 or 87 is a level to watch on H4.
  • #98,118
  • Jul 10, 2011 6:04pm Jul 10, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting 5.25
This I find interesting; gbpcad daily BUOB at swing low.

Very close FTA at base of previous PB. Maybe we'll get to 1.5600?
Could we be looking at a weekly PB too?
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  • #98,119
  • Edited 6:52pm Jul 10, 2011 6:38pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting cprao
Are you shroting based on weekly or you already shorted based on weekly ?
I believe 86.90 or 87 is a level to watch on H4.
shorted aud/usd and I want to switch to aud/jpy after nfp(the idea is the same, but, well, bad nfp still isn't exactly usd supportive so I'd prefer jpy - chf still seems overbid and eur/chf might be a time bomb - and when ppl. will stampede out from that chf will drop hard across the board).

Generally, because I think Bernanke does an excellent job given the overall utterly pathetic US econ. and the levers they have and since QE3 doesn't make sense, there won't be a QE3. So commodities will drop; and ppl. are still pricing many QEs - much like they priced Trichet increasing a quarter of a point monthly(totally ridiculous) back in april. Technically, the pinbar should add minimal support to the move(but it's rather pathetic, so wouldn't hold my breath - talking about the weekly one)

I shorted right after nfp, tp, shorted again on retest of 86.6 and dumped some of my aud/usd. If it'll reach 87, I'll add and dump the rest of my aud/usd reaching my switch. If it'll straight dive(unprobable) I'll stick with 50/50 in the 2 pairs.

to paste from my notes for this trade:

"Downwards – 1st obvious and solid zone is 86.3; stopped today’s move, held at the start of the week, and has very solid confluence – 76 of main move(fukushima – may), 38 of last move down, 61.8 of last move up and 86.3 per se

2nd zone – confluence of 2 fibo’s(38 of last up and 76.4 of down move) + 85.5

3rd zone – 85 – brn & 23.6 of last move up; and target(85.076).


Upwards – 87 is where I plan to load the other half of my trade. Case I load, must unload aud/usd one at be.

87.5 – 87.7 – max. of last move. Should provide most support.

88.35 – 88.5 – previous peaks before all time high."


The three fibos I've used being march - may upmove, the consequent downmove and the latest upmove(84.0x - 87.7x).

I was also thinking about half at 85.0x and half at 84.3x, but those 70 pips might be too much sweat. Will see how it evolves; the basic reason I went with this trade is that I still don't see the reason for the big buob weekly from last week. But you know - when there's no reason for the market to breakout and it does, probably the breakout is real. So I'll be extra careful...

For the time being news are favouring this trade and still aud is dubiously resilient...

news wise, what I'll watch is, to paste again(times are local, obviously):


"11th – 4.30 am – home loans(aud)
12th – 3.30 pm – trade balance(usd)
13th – 5am – cny – gdp. Hmm…
5pm – Bernanke testifies – not sure of relevance
14th – 3.30 pm – US retail sales(and ppi, which doesn’t matter, and unemployment weekly)
15th – 4.55pm – UoM consumer sentiment(probably vaguely relevant)"

p.s. - anyway, I think 86.3 is key. If it'll keep on holding after some major risk off news or one of those news listed above signaling it should break... I'm out.
  • #98,120
  • Jul 10, 2011 6:53pm Jul 10, 2011 6:53pm
Quoting snowly
shorted aud/usd and I want to switch to aud/jpy after nfp(the idea is the same, but, well, bad nfp still isn't exactly usd supportive so I'd prefer jpy - chf still seems overbid and eur/chf might be a time bomb - and when ppl. will stampede out from that chf will drop hard across the board).

Generally, because I think Bernanke does an excellent job given the overall utterly pathetic US econ. and the levers they have and since QE3 doesn't make sense, there won't be a QE3. So commodities will drop; and ppl. are still pricing many QEs - much like...
I am totally with you on 86.3. It may struggle here for a while until it trends down towards 85. I do have 85.30 a level to wach.. and 85 is final destination.
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