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Reminiscences of a gentleman speculator 2006-2014 19 replies
Reminiscences of an alcoholic college student 40 replies
For those who have read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator ... 2 replies
Reminiscences of a FX Operator 1 reply
From Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 3 replies
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QuoteDislikedInteresting..you think it could be that switched on investors have already accepted the fact that things in the EZ are going to only get worst from here on, and would have opted to divert funds into other favorable investments?
DislikedBased off the EUR/USD's relative price action to other risk vehicle's, yes.
I've been thinking about the creditors too. They will not act until the EZ actually makes a decision on what to do with banks. Recent news suggest this won't be solved any time soon. They have shown that they are willing to keep playing the credit agencies games. The french idea fell flat, they have to go back to the drawing board. I don't think Greece will default any time soon.Ignored
QuoteDislikedNFP tomorrow will be important. The idea has been planted that the slowdown might be over. It just needs to materialize.
Greece and Dismal US news in a nutshell was what scared investors away in June. Those two situations are showing some signs of light. Treasury dealers expect their downtrend to continue.
QuoteDislikedPortugal looks like they might want to take some spotlight in the future, sucks to be euro.
QuoteDislikedDebt ceiling is around the corner too. Tax revenues going into the deal will dictate republican opposition. Unless democrats found 2 trillion dollars to slash somewhere. Fxlive noted obama calmed his rhetoric today.
Sounds like stuff investor stuff right? They make longer term trades so I wouldn't think they take all the small things into account.[b] I remember that awesome video unamedplayr posted with the bank dealer and the long term trader. The long term trader said he simply ignores most of the day to day news. While the bank dealer changed...
DislikedHi there
finally a thread worth the time, I am trading Eur Usd, from my observation point Eur Usd gained yesterday upon adp and ECB press while rate got higher to 1.50,
as also manipulation,,, but as we look macro Euro is in bad position portugal, not to mention geece,,, so I am assuming to see the further development....down ´´as Tact1cal mentioned´´
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DislikedI must admit that I have not attempted to put on any trades based on this book, yet. However, as an Order Flow generator newbie, this book is great:
Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets by Ashraf Laidi.Ignored
QuoteDislikedAlso, there is a thread in the Trading Discussion section that was started by Razorjack called "Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading." It was only active between Jan-Feb., 2010.
I haven't seen any references to it on the major Order Flow threads. I am giving it a read, and it definitely fits with Trizzle's longer term approach.
QuoteDislikedIndeed, but I can see the rift between the credit agencies and the EuroZone institutions beginning to get a bit widened, and that can't bode well for the currency. Greece may not default anytime soon, but I'm thinking that by mid-August/September when the Troika comes along to see if they're meeting their fiscal targets, the markets may finally realize that they are throwing good money after bad....
DislikedWow! Those numbers SUCKED! LOL I wish I could have been around to trade it. I checked the numbers while I was driving and laughed out loud. This is pretty damaging for bullish sentiment. I'm going to have to do a lot of planning for next week. Good luck with your positions!Ignored
QuoteDislikedSince we're all sharing information. Anyone ever read this thread? One of my all time favorites.
DislikedNice thread
btw. MT4 Mobil has 30 indicators and it can be installed in devices with windows 6.5 or latter and Dukascopy's platform for Iphone can handle indicators as well.Ignored
DislikedSo I returned home after my month abroad, and unfortunately it will result in updates to the journal being a bit more spaced out than they are currently. Perhaps a weekly/biweekly analysis and summary of my positions.
I started the weak on a rather sour note..I had a position in EUR/USD in anticipation of bearish sentiment this week, with its stop at 1.4300..nowhere on my price feed or any others that I checked did price hit 1.4300, and it turns out it magically got stopped out?Ignored
DislikedSo I returned home after my month abroad, and unfortunately it will result in updates to the journal being a bit more spaced out than they are currently. Perhaps a weekly/biweekly analysis and summary of my positions.
I started the weak on a rather sour note..I had a position in EUR/USD in anticipation of bearish sentiment this week, with its stop at 1.4300..nowhere on my price feed or any others that I checked did price hit 1.4300, and it turns out it magically got stopped out? Seeing as the market dropped to 1.4000 today I was a little stirred,...Ignored
DislikedThanks guys, that reassurance was quite what I needed, especially since I've been feeling a little bit off lately, maybe it's because I've been on the wrong side of the volatility. Hopefully I'll be able to have a good little sit back and think about the possible implications of the various events going on to help position myself better.Ignored
DislikedThere was a time way back in May when I was particularly interested in USD/JPY breaching 79.50, and now that it has, I see the very real possibility of JPY intervention in the near future.Ignored
DislikedEvents I'm watching are the EZ debt crisis and Debt Ceiling talks as they carry on. Today the dollar got pummelled, and the JPY could see a safe haven bid if the Italian Bond Auction today does not proceed well, and subsequently, if an alarming number of banks fail the stress tests on Friday. Goes without saying I'm playing this short EUR/CHF and short USD/JPY as well. The latter more because I get the feeling the specs want to bait BoJ into intervening...timing will be everything with that trade, but if they do..it will be free money in the pot,...Ignored
DislikedThat certainly doesn't feel good. My experience tells me that it's best to take a time out for the day, a few days or a week and wait a) the markets to calm down a bit and b) for one to clear up one's mind. You've shown some real skill previously and I'm sure it's just the politicians messing around rather than your analytical capabilities that are doing the damage.Ignored
QuoteDislikedIt's a topic that never gets old when USDJPY goes below a certain level but I just can't see the Japanese intervening this time around, not until the yen reaches 75 or below. Unilateral interventions don't work and I'm sure the BOJ knows that. Last time around, just after the earthquake, it managed to convince G7 CBs to come and help but that was a natural disaster. This time around it's just free market forces doing their thing. So if they intervene, they are going to have to do it alone and that certainly doesn't help.
What's more, even if they...
QuoteDislikedI did some trading in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami and it wasn't all that fun. I made a killing by fading the move down in EURJPY (riding the elevator up with the BOJ) but later lost it all and then some during the European session. The European session was much more liquid and intervention attempts were faded. I put in a long position only to see it crash a short while later. In my foolishness I didn't use a stop thinking the ECB would ride to the rescue. Well it did, but about a half an hour too late for me. The take-away point...
QuoteDislikedEZ crisis...debt ceiling 'debate'... so much BS and so little substance. What a pity. It looks to me that it has reached a point where it doesn't matter what the news is because the market is so volatile that even a position taken in the right direction will get taken out if not careful.
DislikedThe hindrance in my plan was the random 100+ pip spike last nite that effortlessly smoked my stop before coming back down. I get the feeling that this is going to make JPY longs that much more cautious meaning the down-move may take longer than I anticipated, and since my margin gets tied up so fast, it may be worthwhile to invest it in other areas with quicker turnover.Ignored
USD/JPY sits at 79.00, up from around 78.70 when I sat down. Inbetween we had a horrendous spike to 79.55/60 just as European traders were taking off their coats followed by an instantaneous sell-off. Not surprisingly given the speed of the rally, rumours the BOJ had intervened soon circulated. Seems they hadn’t.
Rather the blame for the spike was put on the shoulders of a US commercial bank and to a lesser extent a large Japanese bank and a UK clearer. Talk is they combined to execute a very large corporate order, but I’m not sure we’ll ever know exactly what went on.
Suffice it to say once it became clear it wasn’t the BOJ in open market down we came and since then it’s been narrow range bound trade in the pairing. Talk of sizeable sell stops now through 78.40.
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...ppy-covers-it/
QuoteDislikedI'm putting it off as simply traders who are looking for excuses to trade. Most of the action during the day isn't enough to grab my attention..it's when things get quiet into the Tokyo handover that it gets interesting...
DislikedThese spikes are not helping, you are right about that. But then again, this is nothing new in the capital markets. Strong hands > weak hands. Spikes like this are to be expected whenever USDJPY goes below 79 as entities such as Kampo (and other Japanese companies) and international banks look to initiate JPY shorts or cover their exposure. There was some info on today's spike over at forexlive which to me sounded pretty convincing. Then again, who am I to tell?
[indent][i]USD/JPY sits at 79.00, up from around 78.70 when I sat down. Inbetween...Ignored
QuoteDislikedI've been mixing up my sleep sessions the last couple of days and I've had the opportunity to trade the Asian session. Absolutely crazy! But also very fun if you're on the right side.