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  • #181
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:26am Jul 6, 2011 10:26am
What is your entry rule for your BO strategy? Limit orders?

I usually watch PA live at those lines for a BO and often let it penetrates instead of chasing. For different TF's, entries should be different?

Just wondered how you do it in your case with 15M.
A successful trading depends on knowing what to analyze.
  • #182
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:59am Jul 6, 2011 10:59am
Well, will see what will come from this setup.
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  • #183
  • Jul 6, 2011 11:25am Jul 6, 2011 11:25am
Quoting altoronto
Well, will see what will come from this setup.
That is not an area of strong consolidation. I would not be looking for a breakout here.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #184
  • Jul 6, 2011 11:47am Jul 6, 2011 11:47am
Hi FH,

Thought I would respond if thats ok, as I was the main party looking for a long earlier.

The one point I would make is that I did not have an expectation that price would break long, but was only looking to trade it if the price did break to the upside.

I had thought that the purpose of the larger artifact was to provide an insight into how price had reacted previously at these levels ? On this basis I was of the view that the potential R:R on the trade was probably not strong enough to provide 1:2 o 1:3, which is the type of level I aim for and I also think you mentioned previously.

Speaking personally, I dont feel compelled to trade over frequently and tend to keep the trigger finger relaxed. When employing any method I look to take 2/3 good setups per week. Yes, I do miss opportunties, but I also control my trading and it serves me well.

For example, the trade I took yesterday looked a lot clearer to me as the CZ formed close to a previous area of resistance and the consolidation contained 20+ bars. Not trying to look for the perfect set-up, but just being selective and avoiding over exposure.


My thought process my have been incorrect earlier in terms of following this method, but I certainly would not be basing it on other methods here at FF (no disrespect intended).

Hope this is taken as intended as constructive discussion around an excellent method.

Best,
FXR.



Quoting forexhard
Let's break this down...

~The attached pic shows a Short breakout that several of you were expecting to break Long instead.

~Your expectation was based on prior price action from hours, or even days, before.

~Your assumption would have been correct had you been following one of the other systems found here at the FF.

~And you would have lost 40 or 50 pips.

~And no doubt you would be feverishly trying to recalibrate your entire system, because after all it was a "false breakout" (what is a real one, btw?)

But is that really...
  • #185
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:19pm Jul 6, 2011 1:19pm
buy now.... resistance white line....eye!
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  • #186
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:32pm Jul 6, 2011 1:32pm
@Porfirio But that is not a break out according to the method of FH, is it ?

Maybe there is some kind of resistance ... but we cannot speak of a wide consolidation in my view ....

Lots of green pips !
  • #187
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:32pm Jul 6, 2011 1:32pm
Looks like decent consolidation now building, 20 bars so far.
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  • #188
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:33pm Jul 6, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting forexhard
My system ignores times of day. This is absolutely intentional. CZ's don't know what time it is, so neither should we. Time-based breakout systems (London, NY, Tokyo) are self-limiting. And it is this self-limiting nature that causes problems like "false breakouts", not the idea of a breakout system in and of itself.

And personally I wish that phrase didn't exist. There is no such thing as a false breakout. There is only a breakout that hit your SL before it hit your TP. Traders that use phrases like false breakout are trying to shift...
I don't think you understood my question. I have been trading a few years albeit not very successfully but one thing I've learned the hard way is ALWAYS check the higher time frames for trend direction. My 4 hr bars open and close at a certain time so I have to totally disagree with you - one cannot ignore time!

I have followed your system with interest but it concerns me that newbies will lose money here by trading "false breakouts". I say "false breakouts" because as far as your system is concerned one needs the move "out of the box" to continue in order to make some pips otherwise one is going to get badly hit on a constant basis! Thus surely, unless my logic doesn't add up, one would check the general trend as well to have an extra check to see that the trade has a chance of succeeding. As a case in point, we've seen a couple of consolidations in the GBPUSD pair over the last 24 hours which some traders on this thread have falsely concluded to buy GBP whereas the trend has been strongly down until about an hour ago.

So I respectfully request that if someone makes a helpful suggestion which could save people perhaps losing a lot of hard earned money that you don't so quickly poo poo the idea. Thank you!

By the way, I haven't lost any money trading a false signal or breakout or whatever you don't want to call it (and I certainly would not try to hide the fact if I did!) because I do take the trouble to check the longer term charts before I would to commit to any "out of the box" trade.

rgds

Jerry
  • #189
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:37pm Jul 6, 2011 1:37pm
Porfirio, I warned you before about your posts. We don't use Andrew's Pitchforks, and you are not highlighting any CZ's in that pic. Please start the thread over and try following the rules.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #190
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:40pm Jul 6, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting FXreds
Looks like decent consolidation now building, 20 bars so far.
Yes, that's worth keeping any eye on. Start mapping out the Hi-Lo stops and have your triggers ready to pull should the CZ prove tradable. Good luck!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #191
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:49pm Jul 6, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting jmtini
I don't think you understood my question. I have been trading a few years albeit not very successfully but one thing I've learned the hard way is ALWAYS check the higher time frames for trend direction. My 4 hr bars open and close at a certain time so I have to totally disagree with you - one cannot ignore time!

I have followed your system with interest but it concerns me that newbies will lose money here by trading "false breakouts". I say "false breakouts" because as far as your system is concerned one needs the move "out of the box" to...
ad 1) There shouldn't be a contradition! FH is right when he states a deep consolidation can take place at every time, but of course you are right too, because it is always helpul to consider the higher TF !!

ad 2) FH means that there is no "false" breakout as even the so-called "false" bo in his example would have given some green pips!! A trader who would have intended a long term trade with sl still at the lower end of the box would have been stopped out!

Please FH, correct me if I am wrong .....
  • #192
  • Jul 6, 2011 1:58pm Jul 6, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting jmtini
I don't think you understood my question. I have been trading a few years albeit not very successfully but one thing I've learned the hard way is ALWAYS check the higher time frames for trend direction. My 4 hr bars open and close at a certain time so I have to totally disagree with you - one cannot ignore time!....

Jerry
Jerry, Did you just say that you are not a successful trader, but you still want to offer me your trading advice within my own teaching thread? This makes sense to you? You don't see a dilemma brewing there?

There are A LOT of skilled traders posting in here who find my ideas very positive and helpful. Part of learning the good stuff is UN-learning the bad that we took in before. This is the stage where you find yourself right now, whether you know it or not. But I do know it. I want to help you as much as I can, but I can't help a person whose mind is closed.

I almost closed this thread until the guys here convinced me otherwise. Maybe you should ask them why that is, why it is that they begged me to keep it open.

Good luck what ever you decide.

FH

EDIT: I just checked out your profile and you have been posting in at least a dozen other system threads lately. I don't see how you can ever succeed this way. Even if you don't settle down here with us, settle down some place exclusively for a couple of months at least. Trying out 5 new systems a week will drive anyone to distraction, I don't care who they are.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #193
  • Jul 6, 2011 2:29pm Jul 6, 2011 2:29pm
FXreds,

Your post skips around quite a bit, but I'll do my best to answer the key points.

First, I don't find you at all disrespectful. Keep those comments coming.

Second, I never said the large artifact was for looking back. That's an assumption that you and a couple of other guys made completely on your own. I know why you did, or course: Because every other thread you ever belonged to always looked back in various ways, am I right? Just exactly like how Jerry is telling me that every other thread he belonged to always told him to look back at the higher time frames. Same thing. Not an ounce of difference between the two notions. It's the identical concept being expressed with slightly different charting tools -- but all of them are studying past price action to chart future price action. Same diff. The only time you ever saw me discussing the large artifact was in reference to how price might react to it well after a breakout had occured. Please direct me to the posts where I ever said anything more than this.

Finally, if you really are waiting all week to grab just 2 or 3 of the best possible trades, then you are one of the wisest and most patient people around, and I wish everyone could be more like you. If Forex came with a list of cardinal sins, being impatient and over trading would be at the top of the list.

FH
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #194
  • Jul 6, 2011 2:30pm Jul 6, 2011 2:30pm
thanks for the system .... is right I have given my personal interpretation, and put no more images to not confuse

sorry


thank you very much
  • #195
  • Jul 6, 2011 2:35pm Jul 6, 2011 2:35pm
Hey Squalou...you've got a friend here! Thank you



[quote=squalou;4755293]Hello forexhard and all,

As some of you may already know, i have been involved in several Breakout strategies in the past year on the "London Breakout" and "3 Tier" threads from mer's system, where i wrote indicators and EAs to trade those systems.
As forexhard is pointing out, "Time-based breakout systems (London, NY, Tokyo) are self-limiting."
  • #196
  • Jul 6, 2011 2:54pm Jul 6, 2011 2:54pm
GBPUSD M5
Thanks again to FH !
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  • #197
  • Jul 6, 2011 4:10pm Jul 6, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting FXreds
Looks like the short off the box earlier is working out ok
Looks like it did... so now how do we figure out if it will go long or short?

My thinking was that it would go long as we saw in previous examples that the PA "usually" goes back to where it came from

So when we spot the price trying to break the other way, maybe that would be a clue to go that way instead?
  • #198
  • Jul 6, 2011 5:41pm Jul 6, 2011 5:41pm
Who else is looking in this area - thanks in advanced for any feedback.

Thank you FH for starting this thread
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  • #199
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:57pm Jul 6, 2011 7:57pm
Quoting forexhard
This is a common question. And in my opinion, this is where most systems go wrong. Because it assumes that I, as thread starter, have an answer for every question. And it assumes that I have a one-sized-fits-all exit strategy. This is not your fault that you think like this. Every thread goes in this direction -- every one. But not this one. I will not have a suitable answer for every question, and I will not attempt to teach a system that everyone will trade exactly the same as me. It's just not possible, and this is why systems die the...
Excellent answer.

IB
  • #200
  • Jul 6, 2011 9:17pm Jul 6, 2011 9:17pm
The chart you posted has your small box (rectangle) out in no man's land where there is no price action. That to me appears that you are predicting that in this "space" there will be some future consolidation.

Why don't you load the wonderful tool and template provided by Squalou in Post # 146 on page 10 of this thread where the boxes are drawn automatically for you when they meet the criteria of 4 hours of consolidation to form a box.

Many thanks to Squalou for this handy tool.


Di
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