Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Reminiscences of a gentleman speculator 2006-2014 19 replies

Reminiscences of an alcoholic college student 40 replies

For those who have read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator ... 2 replies

Reminiscences of a FX Operator 1 reply

From Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 3 replies

Attachments: Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator
Exit Attachments

Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator

  • #281
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:24am Jul 1, 2011 9:24am
Took up a position on the ISM trade, but now I have to decide how I'm going to manage it..it has some upside potential so perhaps I shall let it run.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Attached Image
  • #282
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:33am Jul 1, 2011 9:33am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Took up a position on the ISM trade, but now I have to decide how I'm going to manage it..it has some upside potential so perhaps I shall let it run.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
nice catch. I decided to rather take in with the hunters.
  • #283
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:33am Jul 1, 2011 9:33am
Risk was taken off rather quickly, so we'll see where this bad boy goes. I was thinking around the day's highs seeing as we have very little news on the horizon. If it does make it that high, then I'm thinking off holding it over the weekend, since we may get a gap-up...

Quoting vicky_ag
nice catch. I decided to rather take in with the hunters.


Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #284
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:40am Jul 1, 2011 9:40am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Took up a position on the ISM trade, but now I have to decide how I'm going to manage it..it has some upside potential so perhaps I shall let it run.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
the report came out way better than expected.. everyone was worried it might dip below 50

I took 8.5% gain while avoiding the USD

I saw the spike and closed everything expecting a big whiplash.. plus its friday and I don't want to wait around if they fade and have to wait for trend to resume.. if london starts taking profits from the week at 11 EST.. etc etc..

I'm good for the day now have a great weekend Trizzle its been a fun week keep up the good journal..

Please let us know what to expect new week regarding fundamentals I will be researching this weekend as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ISM.jpg Size: 200 KB
  • #285
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:55am Jul 1, 2011 9:55am
Quoting newyear498
the report came out way better than expected.. everyone was worried it might dip below 50

I took 8.5% gain while avoiding the USD

I saw the spike and closed everything expecting a big whiplash.. plus its friday and I don't want to wait around if they fade and have to wait for trend to resume.. if london starts taking profits from the week at 11 EST.. etc etc..

I'm good for the day now have a great weekend Trizzle its been a fun week keep up the good journal..

Please let us know what to expect new week regarding fundamentals I will be researching...
Ohhh I wouldn't say everyone Looks like you booked yourself some good profit. Good way to end the week. I'm not really comfortable with my grasp on fundies like say bug, so I can't really give concrete expectations as to what will play out next week...I tend to react as things play out. Perhaps you can come to some good forward estimates yourself this weekend?

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #286
  • Jul 1, 2011 3:08pm Jul 1, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I read this article recently, and I think it has potential to deal massive damage to the Franc, but the SNB has stated that it isn't considering intervening in the markets, according to its monetary policy. I'd wait for it to turn on its promise before I act on that piece of news, but yes it has the potential to cause massive unwinding.

Good eye.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

Sorry for the late reply Trizzle thanks for the answer i cathed some swissfrancs but to late but still had some. Should have followed my gut on this 1 and open longs bit in the gbp and eur /chf earlier. This is the chf futures currently at channel bottom would be intresting technically if whe break it. http://screencast.com/t/lqGbZHF3dQmr
  • #287
  • Jul 2, 2011 7:34am Jul 2, 2011 7:34am
Just some thoughts about the NFP

As an American who interacts with government officials.. I will tell you all I heard from may till recently is talk about job cuts.. but the union threaten protest and that saved a lot of jobs

with all economics however we have that delay feeling.. like economy goes into recession.. then job cuts happen.. so it could be similar.. talk of job cuts still.. but good reports come out.. then they hire people

so I have to consider that

however with the type of forecast they are giving for NFP to me it signals a higher probability to undershoot



Considering this is the start of July we are in for a ride I suppose.. you have to consider the Dow is making a huge rally as well

Basically it comes down to NFP to determine if the recent EUR/USD trend would continue bullish or bearish

I suspect our best offense is a good defense.. take advantage of what looks like high odds Euro rate hikes.. but avoid the EUR/USD

at the same time I'm interested in yen as well with there economy recovering.. but then again.. if USD comes out good.. its an interesting battle between the two largest economies in the world... Hmm.. More meditation I see
  • #288
  • Edited 6:21pm Jul 5, 2011 5:31pm | Edited 6:21pm
Trizzle:

I am reading through all of your posts now. I am really impressed by the growth that you've demonstrated in the last six or seven months, and the effortless way that you are able to express your understanding of things...I tried to explain liquidity to my girlfriend this weekend, it was a nightmare.

I am new to Order Flow trading, but I am using the summer to read, read, re-read, and read some more.

It really is hard to believe that you are only 18 or 19 years old. I've been a uni prof for 10 years, and I really love to see folks your age devote themselves to their passions.

I must admit that when I first got to FF, I went to the J16 thread, and other price action pattern threads, but I just could not get passionate about trading.

Certainly, the thought of making money kept me going, but Order Flow trading has challenged me intellectually, and now thinking about the market is becoming a passion of mine. Over the last few weeks, I've read the Market Wizards books and More Money Than God. The thought of matching wits with some of those guys is motivating.

In one of your posts on Carnegie's thread you mentioned "gapping regions void of open interest." I saw a Darkstar posting regarding this, as well. Unfortunately, I don't know to what it refers. Can you explain it to me, or direct me to something that I can read? Does it relate to the liquidity disequilibrium that Darkstar mentioned?

Keep up the good work; it's inspiring.
  • #289
  • Jul 6, 2011 4:47am Jul 6, 2011 4:47am
@newyear498: We'll see how it plays out. It comes in at an interesting time amid the new crisis fiasco. Wonder how ADP will come out...

@TheCheetah: That was a very encouraging post from you, and I'm glad you're liking the journal so far. Like you, approaching trading from the intellectual, almost chess-like perspective is very appealing to me, so much so that trading to trade well is quickly becoming a greater motivating factor for me than the money which will inevitably follow. I'm about to get through those books you've listed, and believe this summer will be 'The Transformation' so to speak when I get through them..from what I've heard they're class material!

Regarding the OF bit, you're correct it's based on the liquidity disequilibrium Darkstar mentioned, but just on a larger scale. Tact1cal made a great post about it here (hope he doesn't mind) which I think highlights it practically.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #290
  • Jul 6, 2011 4:57am Jul 6, 2011 4:57am
As the jitters shift from Greece to the periphery, I have observed large downside risks to my positon, and thus opted to close out all my positions in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP to book some profits. I have left my remaining AUD/JPY position on the table, and it is generating some nice swap as the days go by.

I'm deciding what pairs to play tomorrow, and I'm thinking either EUR/USD or EUR/CHF; ideally both, since in the former case I'm not too sure how the US Debt Ceiling will affect things.

The prospects for the EuroZone situation are going from bad to worst, with the ratings agencies standing firm on their interpretations of credit events, essentially rendering all the hustling and bustling regarding private sector involvement obsolete. In any event, even if things do get resolved amicably, we still have the formidable task of Greece implementing the austerity measures and sticking to its targets, and I have no confidence that they are going to be successful with those ventures. Although it may take until the next bailout tranche to play out, I get the feeling that this will not end well, and perhaps should think about positionning myself for the market's reaction from early-on.

Sentiment wise, we are at a stark reversal from last week's risk-on atmosphere, largely due to the ratings agencies and also to globally weaker data giving some crecedence to the idea of a slow-down, and a rate hike by China will only make things worst. Bearing this in mind, it's a bit odd to see AUD/USD and its crosses holding up so resiliently, so I'm also trying to get my head about what exactly it is that's driving these two. Could the high yields be justification enough? Judging by the swap I'm getting on my measly position, I'd actually reckon it might be!

At least now I have some free margin to place more trades, and can approach things with a fresher perspective.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #291
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:33am Jul 6, 2011 6:33am
The rating risk was a given. Those people like to mess things up.
  • #292
  • Edited 11:02am Jul 6, 2011 10:52am | Edited 11:02am
Thanks for the reply. Tactical's post is quite helpful.

I have never played chess, so reading up on Game Theory this summer is high on my list. I am reading, "Introduction to Game Theory in Business and Economics" by Thomas Webster. I've only browsed through it, so I cannot recommend it, yet.

If you are interested, I have attached a few academic papers on game theory and trading.

One was too big to upload, but you can find it in a google search: "The Trader’s Dilemma: Trading Strategies and Endogenous Pricing in an Illiquid Market."
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Execution Game.pdf   520 KB | 367 downloads
File Type: pdf Liquidity Black Holes.pdf   229 KB | 349 downloads
File Type: pdf Liquidation in the Face of Adversity.pdf   319 KB | 313 downloads
File Type: pdf Episodic Liquidity Crises.pdf   328 KB | 322 downloads
  • #293
  • Jul 6, 2011 11:03am Jul 6, 2011 11:03am
Quoting vicky_ag
The rating risk was a given. Those people like to mess things up.
Indeed...if you can't beat them..join them though! I was happy with my flexibility to change my EUR outlook though. Looking to initiate some positions tomorrow...going to be a very volatile day. Coin to be made

Quoting The Cheetah
Thanks for the reply. Tactical's post is quite helpful.

I am also reading up on Game Theory this summer. I am reading, "Introduction to Game Theory in Business and Economics" by Thomas Webster. I've only browsed through it so I cannot recommend it, yet.

If you are interested I have attached a few academic papers on the subject that I found.

One was too big to upload, but you can find it in a google search: "The Trader’s Dilemma: Trading Strategies and Endogenous Pricing in an Illiquid Market."
Heya The Cheetah,

Always good to get useful info! Definitely going to go through it when I do my weekend reading. Glad Tact1cal's post could help.

All the best,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #294
  • Jul 6, 2011 5:32pm Jul 6, 2011 5:32pm
Quote
Sentiment wise, we are at a stark reversal from last week's risk-on atmosphere, largely due to the ratings agencies and also to globally weaker data giving some crecedence to the idea of a slow-down, and a rate hike by China will only make things worst. Bearing this in mind, it's a bit odd to see AUD/USD and its crosses holding up so resiliently, so I'm also trying to get my head about what exactly it is that's driving these two. Could the high yields be justification enough? Judging by the swap I'm getting on my measly position,...
I've been wondering the same thing myself. I was expecting the AUD/USD to follow the EURO back down. I've been suprised to see it still hold. I'm holding a similar idea to yours about why they've held. I think it's just a more attractive vehicle right now for investors. If you take a look at the NZD/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/MXN You would notice that they have all held their recent strength moves nicely. Those were currencies I kept seeing when I would read about investor demand and countries looking to diversify debt holdings. I spotted some PIMCO demand too.

Lol @ rating agencies. They are trolling EZ leaders so hard.

Quote
Thanks for the reply. Tactical's post is quite helpful.
I'm glad you found it useful. How's More Money than God? I picked it up recently. I simply won't open it until I finish other readings though, so it will have to wait, but I'm eagerly awaiting the day I do. I'm hoping I'll be able to crack it open sometime next month. Thanks for the links too.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #295
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:05pm Jul 6, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting Tact1cal
How's More Money than God? I picked it up recently.
I thought it was a great read. For me, it was a more enjoyable read than the Market Wizards books, and I think I learned just as much. I am a historian, so that probably influences my perspective.

For me, the book humanized the big players, and animated the market. Yeah, I've read about stop hunts, and value trades, but reading through actual accounts of them helped reinforce what I've learned.

As Trizzle wrote in a post I read earlier today, "the fact remains that there is an undeniable human component which can be exploited." The descriptions of the hedge funders personalities and backgrounds was interesting. Although, the author's graphic physical descriptions were a bit pervish.

I really got a good sense of the intermarket relationships between the currency, equities, commodities, and stock markets, and how they worked in conjunction with each other. The hedge funds use of leverage seemed to influence a lot of the market's shifts.

I won't say too much, but I enjoyed it, and most importantly, it helped be figure out a few more order flow generators.

Lastly, the fact that I could read it, and understand what was going on was a big confidence boost. I've only been reading this order flow stuff for about three weeks.
  • #296
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:19pm Jul 6, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Bearing this in mind, it's a bit odd to see AUD/USD and its crosses holding up so resiliently, so I'm also trying to get my head about what exactly it is that's driving these two.

Hi xXTrizzleXx,
Thank you for sharing your insights in your journal, about A/U, the big rally in gold (silver) might be part of the reason. What I have a problem with is that
stocks are not falling... which in itself may be the other part of the reason why A/U is holding up so well.
  • #297
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:29pm Jul 6, 2011 6:29pm
Awesome Cheetah, I had a feeling it was going to be a good book. That's exactly the information I look for.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #298
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:41pm Jul 6, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting Tact1cal
I've been wondering the same thing myself. I was expecting the AUD/USD to follow the EURO back down. I've been suprised to see it still hold. I'm holding a similar idea to yours about why they've held. I think it's just a more attractive vehicle right now for investors.
Interesting..you think it could be that switched on investors have already accepted the fact that things in the EZ are going to only get worst from here on, and would have opted to divert funds into other favorable investments?

Quoting OGW
Hi xXTrizzleXx,
Thank you for sharing your insights in your journal, about A/U, the big rally in gold (silver) might be part of the reason. What I have a problem with is that
stocks are not falling... which in itself may be the other part of the reason why A/U is holding up so well.
Heya OGW, good to have you in these parts. Unfortunately, a while back after some mental sloshing, I deemed Gold and Silver to be mostly speculative vehicles, especially during the summer months when seasonal demand from Asia dries up. The last move up has been touted as being due to safe-haven flows, but I observed that when Greece's debt issues came to the fore in ~May, instead of acting like a safe haven, like CHF, it dropped along with EUR. I'm looking at this latest move as very suspicious, and part of me wants to fade it...but not yet..let's wait for some ECB and BoE volatility to help cushion my risk..

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #299
  • Jul 6, 2011 11:52pm Jul 6, 2011 11:52pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya OGW, good to have you in these parts. xXTrizzleXx
Hey, thank you for the warm welcome.
  • #300
  • Jul 7, 2011 9:47am Jul 7, 2011 9:47am
Quoting The Cheetah
Thanks for the reply. Tactical's post is quite helpful.

I have never played chess, so reading up on Game Theory this summer is high on my list. I am reading, "Introduction to Game Theory in Business and Economics" by Thomas Webster. I've only browsed through it, so I cannot recommend it, yet.

If you are interested, I have attached a few academic papers on game theory and trading.

One was too big to upload, but you can find it in a google search: "The Trader’s Dilemma: Trading Strategies and Endogenous Pricing in an Illiquid Market."...
Yale has an entire free course on Game Theory

http://oyc.yale.edu/economics

MIT also has an open source project
4 traders viewing now