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Flag trading the trend

  • #4,801
  • Edited 7:36am Jul 6, 2011 7:15am | Edited 7:36am
Div, I need some clarification on the rules.
Once the trend is established on the 15m , say long, we go to the 1m and look for a setup bar.
We start looking for a setup bar when we see a pullback in 1m cht to below the sma and cci-50 and a later bar closing above the sma and cci +50 ant bar's low is below or less than 2.4p above sma.
Enter a couple pips( in my case 1+2spread) above high of setup bar.
S/L must be below last low of pullback and at 15 p max below entry, TP at 15 p above entry.
Also what is definition of triggering and not triggering?
Last question - does SUB have to take out last high of the pullback or is closing above sma and cci 50 enough?
Thanks Bill G
  • #4,802
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:13am Jul 6, 2011 8:13am
Div, I too need some clarification on the rules. This is how I see them.

Once the trend is established on the 15m , say long, I go to the 1min chart and look for a trend

It is long if there are many bars showing higher highs and higher lows to the left of the moving average. (this shows a long trend in place).

Then I look for a pull back of more than a few bars that takes the price below the 10sma and the CCI has pulled back to at least be in between the +50 and -50. ( It does NOT have to pull back to lower than -50 CCI )

Then on to look for a setup bar. A setup bar closes above the sma and +50 CCI . (It does not have to close higher than it opened). The setup bar may be one that pierces the 10sma.
If the setup bar is one that is entirely above the 10sma then the low must be no more than 2.4 pips above the sma.

If the CCI of the setup bar is less than +50, it is a failed setup bar and you await the next opportunity.

You need to calculate the stop loss before entry. It is 15 pips below your entry price AND below the low of the pullback. If it fails this criteria, it is a non trade.

Entry is ONE pip plus spread above high of the setup bar.

Profit is set at 15 pips above the entry price.

Thanks Bill for raising the topic as it spurred me into writing my interpretation as well.


Di
  • #4,803
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:29am Jul 6, 2011 8:29am
Duffy, I am looking at E/U. 15m is in downrend and 1m is in uptrend. Will wait for 15 to turn around or 1m to turn down and re-establish downtrend. Bill G
  • #4,804
  • Edited 9:12am Jul 6, 2011 8:43am | Edited 9:12am
I got caught in this trade today. Price had already made it daily average range of 160 pips today so I waited for a good pullback (30pips). I also had confirmation with a 123 before the trade but I still lost this one. Could anyone comment on what might have gone wrong?

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  • #4,805
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:48am Jul 6, 2011 8:48am
Bill

I thought I'd leave questions about whether the 15 min is trending up or down until after Div looks at our rules and straightens us out.

I thought I had the 15 min trend rules down ok until I listened to the most recent webinar.

Still, it's worth hanging around for the method and Div is more than generous with his time.

However I'm with you on your current view of the E/U.



Di
  • #4,806
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:20am Jul 6, 2011 10:20am
Quoting thefallguy
I got caught in this trade today. Price had already made it daily average range of 160 pips today so I waited for a good pullback (30pips). I also had confirmation with a 123 before the trade but I still lost this one. Could anyone comment on what might have gone wrong?

Attachment
+++++++++++++++

I drank the same kool aid. I think we should have probably stayed out due to the fact that the retrace was not commensurate to the daily move, which had virtually no retrace.

I did get in the following set up for a win, however had to close early before news. Daily total -5 pips.
  • #4,807
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:22am Jul 6, 2011 10:22am
Quoting Cherokee
Duffy, I am looking at E/U. 15m is in downrend and 1m is in uptrend. Will wait for 15 to turn around or 1m to turn down and re-establish downtrend. Bill G
++++++++++++++++++++

Trend on 1 min has no significance. All trades based on 15 min trend.
  • #4,808
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:25am Jul 6, 2011 10:25am
Quoting thefallguy
I got caught in this trade today. Price had already made it daily average range of 160 pips today so I waited for a good pullback (30pips). I also had confirmation with a 123 before the trade but I still lost this one. Could anyone comment on what might have gone wrong?

Attachment
Hi
there was no valid trade there.....10 min later there is another valid setup, the next high off your pic....
  • #4,809
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:27am Jul 6, 2011 10:27am
Enter a couple pips( in my case 1+2spread) above high of setup bar.

Thanks Bill G[/quote]
++++++++++++++

Not a "Couple of pips", One Pip. Your calculations must include the spread.

i.e. - Entry long at 100-> spread 2-> target 117-> stop 087.
  • #4,810
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:41am Jul 6, 2011 10:41am
hi Diamond...this is what i saw on my chart
the first circle is the trade you were asking...the next 2 circles are valid entries
or i am getting the whole thing wrong
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/2240/eurrr.png
By radofx at 2011-07-06

blue circle SUB CCI is -18 -not valid,next candle is valid CCI ,but no 1 pip entry from next candle

2 yellow circles are valid entries
do i read it right?
  • #4,811
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:41am Jul 6, 2011 10:41am
when we get an extended pullback in this case 34 pips and we get a s u b let it go then wait for pullback that forms a 123 pattern the only setup in u s session was at 1014 est find it and study it
  • #4,812
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:52am Jul 6, 2011 10:52am
page 319 has rules and 320 has link to video
  • #4,813
  • Jul 6, 2011 12:49pm Jul 6, 2011 12:49pm
hi all !!!
as example 123, only the CCI 14 that pattern is called famir.
prefer to sell it to the underlying trend, and during deceleration market counter trend. this pattern of taking only the zero line with the breakdown of the indicator CCI 14
http://savepic.org/1957034m.jpg
  • #4,814
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:06pm Jul 6, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting Divergence
when we get an extended pullback in this case 34 pips and we get a s u b let it go then wait for pullback that forms a 123 pattern the only setup in u s session was at 1014 est find it and study it
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I definitely was in error taking the 9:08 ET & 9:38 ET SUB's. This was partly because I was so used to looking for long trend set ups that I hadn't turned my brain around yet.

• 9:09 was not good because price retraced 30 pips and you should never take a bigger pull back on the 1st set up.

• 9:38 was basically the same situation. Price needed to re-establish the prevailing trend by a 123 or having a valid second entry in the same direction as the 15 min trend.

• 10:14 was the second consecutive set up back in the direction of the 15 min trend, so this was the only valid set up.

Sorry about any confusion on earlier posts.
Darryl
  • #4,815
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:24pm Jul 6, 2011 3:24pm
Trade at 7:50 is correct or not? ( 10 minutes berofe US session started )

In that case you also dont know if it will be extended pullback or not.
  • #4,816
  • Jul 6, 2011 4:55pm Jul 6, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting diamonddbw
+++++++++++++++

Usually this link is good for only one week. I will put recording on Vimeo so it will be available before this link expires.
Darryl

Darryl,

good idea. I didn't find the record on vimeo.com though. May you provide a link? Thank you.

josch
trading is war - life is simple
  • #4,817
  • Jul 7, 2011 7:00am Jul 7, 2011 7:00am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I definitely was in error taking the 9:08 ET & 9:38 ET SUB's. This was partly because I was so used to looking for long trend set ups that I hadn't turned my brain around yet.

• 9:09 was not good because price retraced 30 pips and you should never take a bigger pull back on the 1st set up.

• 9:38 was basically the same situation. Price needed to re-establish the prevailing trend by a 123 or having a valid second entry in the same direction as the 15 min trend.

• 10:14 was the second consecutive set up back...

Hi Guys,
Could you elaborate a bit on these comments?

The 9:09 set up was no good because “on a big pull back never take the first trade”? Is this a rule? I have watched the latest webinar one but did not catch that I will go back and review it though.

9:38 “we should wait for a 123”. But the 9:09 trade had a 123, would that not have qualified it, or “never take the first trade on a big pullback” overrules the 123?

10:14 if there is a second consecutive trade in the direction of the 15m trend, a 123 is not necessary?

Man my head is spinning!!
I was doing a lot better on the 5 min charts I found that I only took very selective trades. On the 1 min I feel like I need to jump in on the trades quickly and I am not thinking them through.

Like you said Darryl, I need to train the brain!!
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  • #4,818
  • Jul 7, 2011 7:30am Jul 7, 2011 7:30am
what would be this issue with this trade from yesterday @ 8:35am?


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  • #4,819
  • Jul 7, 2011 9:48am Jul 7, 2011 9:48am
yeee 2 wins in a row 1 during London and one at NY
i will upload for comments because since yesterday i found some things i miss understood and i was reading a few things wrong....hope i got it right this time
thanks all!

London trade 10 24 AM gmt

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/362/eu1.png
By radofx at 2011-07-07

NY trade 3 15 PM gmt
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/6386/eur2.png
By radofx at 2011-07-07
  • #4,820
  • Edited 6:46pm Jul 7, 2011 6:41pm | Edited 6:46pm
The time period I use for the London Session begins with the Frankfurt open at 2 am ET and ends at 5 am ET.

The set up below was the only set up I recognize as being good during the 3 hour period of FF/London Session. The set up bar occurred at 3:01 am ET, and followed a SUB that was the first one to return to the trend. As per rules, the first SUB returning to the trend is passed up in case price continues against the trend.

• I saw no valid set up for the first 3 hours of the NY Session. Trend was still down based on 15 min.

Open for discussion
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