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95% losers - Fact or Fiction?

  • #61
  • Jul 11, 2010 1:52pm Jul 11, 2010 1:52pm
IMO 95%-99% of posters on trading related forums, don't have the faintest semblance of a clue of what they're talking about.
  • #62
  • Jul 11, 2010 3:35pm Jul 11, 2010 3:35pm
May be 95% is an outstretch, But I feel more than 80% loose money.

And thats because not that they don't use good strategies, its that they don't focus on money management.

I would infact go ahead and say - "Money Management Is the Key" to make money in forex market!
  • #63
  • Jul 11, 2010 4:22pm Jul 11, 2010 4:22pm
From my own experience working in a prop trading firm, the 5% number is correct. This is a tough business to be in and everyone is trying to make a buck. There were new faces every month. Some guys did well for a few months only to crash and burn when the going got tough.

The few that were able to do well over the long run put in an extraordinary amount of time studying the markets.

Poker, Comedian, pro sports are some of the other professions where I've heard that only 5% succeed.
  • #64
  • Jul 11, 2010 5:37pm Jul 11, 2010 5:37pm
The 95% figure could very easily be the case IMO.

If forums are any indication at all of the way people view the markets and thus trade the markets then probably more like 99%.

So much of the thinking and analysis is just chasing shadows and is, at least, "once removed" from what the market's doing real-time.

Fine with me. Analyze away and keep pouring money into the pool!
  • #65
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:40am Jul 12, 2010 1:40am
Absolutely agree. It's all there in the candles. Anything else, even the news, is a distraction.

Quoting FXSurfer
The 95% figure could very easily be the case IMO.

If forums are any indication at all of the way people view the markets and thus trade the markets then probably more like 99%.

So much of the thinking and analysis is just chasing shadows and is, at least, "once removed" from what the market's doing real-time.

Fine with me. Analyze away and keep pouring money into the pool!
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #66
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:57am Jul 12, 2010 2:57am
...... are there more people who can't spell the word 'lose' than there are failed traders?
  • #67
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:07am Jul 12, 2010 3:07am
We should have a sticky thread:

Lose = win and lose
Loose = tight and loose

Picture tight and loose... anyone with a dirty mind will surely remember how to spell this and won't get this wrong.

Now picture... 95% of traders are loose
  • #68
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:50am Jul 12, 2010 3:50am
fiction:

1. those who trade - do not participate on contests - no motivation, no time for games, there are a lot, they do not need advertise themselves.
2. "be one of the" 5% of the winners is good advertisement and strong motivation for noobs "from street" whispering about "my own bOOgatti and sex with celebrities".
3. 95% pronounced Losers are mostly stupid GAMBLERS - nothing about TRADING as daily work basis on trading whatever it is FOREX or Stocks.

Sorry, but trader is a philosophy more than just word. Sure every step in this live is gambling with destiny, it can be emotional, educative, progressive, constructive, destructive, profitable, viable, mortal... whatever. But, if... the step been planed according probabilities, possibilities, calculation of balance between positive/negative results, than, sorry, this step more probable to bring further nuggets - This rule is valid for ANY CIRCUMSTANCES - is it marriage or forex or whatever

Now, the question is a decision of person to TRADE (be an educated gambler for long term) or GAMBLE (be uneducated trader once in life). Statistics and advertisers of those who tell this fiction never tell in detail who is who trader or not - is no matter for them - "it's all about money" from your pocket - main stimulus to "share" information between "engaged". This world is full of criminals in law, thief s and homegrown woodpeckers, except of Usual people who do not play games, do their jobs and have fun.

All starting from homegrown woodpeckers, no one born as a trader, but some finish as criminal robbing others HGWPs, some gambling, some trading silently (some sharing). Would it be a cold statistics, than we would see much more specifics than just "95% of traders", eg. But what do we have is joined simple overview which includes everything except truth.

is fiction, be more educated.
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #69
  • Jul 12, 2010 9:01am Jul 12, 2010 9:01am
Can we Put this Thread to rest and just put a sticky up that just says "95% of you suck"

I swear it feels like deja vu on this forum.
  • #70
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:28am Jul 5, 2011 8:28am
Quoting daveoz001
How many people join gyms, start other types of exercise only to stop before achieving their goals! Probably about 95%!

None of this means that you or I can't achieve our goals!!!!


In forex trading you'll never become a successful profitable trader long term because it is a negative expectation game that will kill your purse no matter how you vary your play. You can't beat the odds. Only forex brokers are winning constantly, because you are donating your money to them again and again until you're broke or tired of this nonsence. You can win short term but in the long term you will lose inevitably. Trends are only illusion that fools your mind. Better try your luck in stock market where you may have a positive expectation. Trends work in stock market. Here they are not.
  • #71
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:09am Jul 5, 2011 10:09am
If 95% of the traders lose, please explain this to me.

It is commonly believed that the market acts according to the expectations of all the participants. If everyone believes that the market is going up and buys, then it is going up. Now, if 95% of the traders are wrong, that means they are betting against the market.

But isn't 95% of the participants would be enough to move the market in any direction that they think is right?

Either the number of 95% traders wrong, or the markets do not work the way we think.

Otherwise, the statistics could be talking about 95% of beginner traders dropping out of trading before starting making profit, but saying that 95% of the traders get the direction of the market wrong does not seem to be right.
  • #72
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:32am Jul 5, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Rxn
If 95% of the traders lose, please explain this to me.

It is commonly believed that the market acts according to the expectations of all the participants. If everyone believes that the market is going up and buys, then it is going up. Now, if 95% of the traders are wrong, that means they are betting against the market.

But isn't 95% of the participants would be enough to move the market in any direction that they think is right?

Either the number of 95% traders wrong, or the markets do not work the way we think.

Otherwise, the statistics...
the sky is also blue. check the sky at midday and also at midnight to confirm this to be a completely true and complete statement.

Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #73
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:37am Jul 5, 2011 10:37am
Quoting nubcake
the sky is also blue. check the sky at midday and also at midnight to confirm this to be a completely true and complete statement.

I think I would go with the color of the tomato as an argument. When it is not ripe, it is green, like an upward candle, when it is ripe, it is red.

Makes sense too, doesn't it?
  • #74
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:30am Jul 5, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Rxn
If 95% of the traders lose, please explain this to me.

It is commonly believed that the market acts according to the expectations of all the participants. If everyone believes that the market is going up and buys, then it is going up. Now, if 95% of the traders are wrong, that means they are betting against the market.

But isn't 95% of the participants would be enough to move the market in any direction that they think is right?

Either the number of 95% traders wrong, or the markets do not work the way we think.

Otherwise, the statistics...
You overlooked one key point about this argument: 95% of traders don't control 95% of the money in the market. Not even close. Consider how many of the 95% are people who open $400 micro accounts, blow it all, and then stop trading.

Quoting Ged
In forex trading you'll never become a successful profitable trader long term because it is a negative expectation game that will kill your purse no matter how you vary your play. You can't beat the odds. Only forex brokers are winning constantly, because you are donating your money to them again and again until you're broke or tired of this nonsence. You can win short term but in the long term you will lose inevitably. Trends are only illusion that fools your mind. Better try your luck in stock market where you may have a positive expectation. Trends work in stock market. Here they are not.
This is a silly post with no basis and not deserving a proper response Definitely looks like someone admitted to being in the 95% though
  • #75
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:42am Jul 5, 2011 11:42am
It can take 5 years or more to get good at FX; 95% of most people probably think they can be consistently profitable in 6 months or less (definitely not longer than a year). 95% of most folks cannot accept this reality. Also, a lot of the things that it takes to be successful at FX are things that go against the basic principles that you grew up with. Especially when it comes to dealing with loss and risk.
  • #76
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:24pm Jul 5, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting Troikaone1
It can take 5 years or more to get good at FX; 95% of most people probably think they can be consistently profitable in 6 months or less (definitely not longer than a year). 95% of most folks cannot accept this reality. Also, a lot of the things that it takes to be successful at FX are things that go against the basic principles that you grew up with. Especially when it comes to dealing with loss and risk.
I do agree with that many people do not devote enough time to becoming good at trading, but I wouldn't say it should take 5 years, if you are making an appropriate effort.

In most professions, it takes about two years to become sufficiently skilled, I do not see trading to be that different, in fact I think that is one of the simpler jobs you could pick up, at least you don't have to spend four years in college in order to get started at it.

But then, we are talking about two year of full time work, before one gains a level of expertise in what they are doing.
  • #77
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:47pm Jul 5, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting Rxn
I do agree with that many people do not devote enough time to becoming good at trading, but I wouldn't say it should take 5 years, if you are making an appropriate effort.

In most professions, it takes about two years to become sufficiently skilled, I do not see trading to be that different, in fact I think that is one of the simpler jobs you could pick up, at least you don't have to spend four years in college in order to get started at it.

But then, we are talking about two year of full time work, before one gains a level of expertise in what...
If you have a competent mentor, you can shorten that time considerably. I started trading FX from scratch, and I spent my first 3 years going in the wrong direction, which I had to correct in the past 2 years. A long time ago, I attempted to learn e-mini trading from a broker that I knew. I watched this guy lose over and over again consistently and it turns out I knew more about technical analysis than he did. So when it came to trading FX, I was determined to learn on my own and I knew it would take some time. I was under no allusions....it was gonna take some commitment.

Ya know, I have come to find out that trading is an evolving process that never stops. Learning to trade has different phases; the final phase is to not only be consistently profitable w/ a clear risk management system, but you are making enough money to easily replace your full time job. That is the ultimate goal of most traders. It takes a considerable amount of time to get to that point. For you it may take 2 years, for others it may take 5+ years.
  • #78
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:10pm Jul 5, 2011 1:10pm
Getting a competent mentor would be probably a solid solution, too bad very few can find one, but then you could say that market is the best mentor, if you have flaws in your trading, it will surface them very quickly, one only needs to listen and react appropriately.

Getting back to the topic, there is absolutely no way one can start at something and be good at it, which in trading unfotunately means losing money. Even if one is profitable, even that it still does not mean they never lose. There is this guy, a trading advisor, that I mildly stalk trying to learn, he goes on financial TV channels and all that, he posts reports on his trading in his blog every now and again along with videos of his trading on YouTube.

Two weeks ago on Friday just before close he blew all his week's profits in a single trade, by his own words, being extremely stupid like doubling down and moving stops, you know yourself. That is a very freaky thing to do just before the weekend, since you will be out of it for two days gnawing yourself, I hate it the most when it happens.

Then he was scalping last week and did quite good in my understanding: 125 pips or so in three days. To get that he placed about 30-40 trades, which makes about 4 or so pips per trade.

Don't get decieved thinking that becoming a professional trader gives you some sort of magic immunity to all the issues we are having here: he has to deal with exactly the same crap, in exactly the same amounts as we do, he just knows better how to handle it.
  • #79
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:19pm Jul 5, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting Rxn
Getting a competent mentor would be probably a solid solution, too bad very few can find one, but then you could say that market is the best mentor, if you have flaws in your trading, it will surface them very quickly, one only needs to listen and react appropriately.

Getting back to the topic, there is absolutely no way one can start at something and be good at it, which in trading unfotunately means losing money. Even if one is profitable, even that it still does not mean they never lose. There is this guy, a trading advisor, that I mildly...

I think I may know who you are talking about . But notice in my post where I said that you should have as a goal to not only be consistently profitable but you should also have a solid risk management system. Over the years, I could tell you where the good trades where....but during certain times of the month, the market can take nasty, unpredictable turns and if you do not have a firm grip on risk management you will get toasted. If you have bad habits like adding to losers, you will get toasted. I have accepted the fact that when an unforseen anomaly occurs in the markets, you have to give it up and keep moving. If you don't have a clear definition of risk management, you will get your clock cleaned out mercilessly.
  • #80
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:48am Jul 6, 2011 3:48am
Quote
so is 95% losers a myth or does currensee have better traders?
I believe in 95% or maybe even in 99%
IMHO numbers are manipulated by brokers to encourage people to open accounts with them. In my experience and I have plenty of it (but i'm still in 95%), I have seen a lot of "mentors", "brilliant strategy", etc, no one is perfect and fails when it comes for long run. Still searching for the winners...
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