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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #97,861
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:03am Jul 5, 2011 7:03am
Quoting Pinbar
EJ, FTB 365 EMA, 50 fibo confluence, top of the consolidation box & 117.500 rn.
Only problem is the massive weekly bullish bar.
This one I also have an over-aggressive order on (117.60) as It looks like it might be in a channel between 117.50 and about ~114.00, could be a nice one if it works out. That weekly BUOB is a concern but it didn't close above the PPZ and I think EUR might be in for some selling this week
Anything can happen.
  • #97,862
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:08am Jul 5, 2011 7:08am
Quoting ddinnov
I have an order on this one as the location I had drawn already as a weekly PPZ on my chart - I would have considered a touch trade from this location but a so-so pin bar will do. Haven't been triggered yet as my entry (1.3650) is quite aggressive - may not get triggered at all
Hi Ddinnov,

This spike to the upside might complicate things on the second aproach. Some sell limit orders might have been scared out of the market. Hopefully it will work out for You but first reaction usually have most number of followers imo. Cheers!
  • #97,863
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:54am Jul 5, 2011 7:54am
Quoting chartlaie
little time after your trade you get a very strong DHLC along with your white ma no longer uppish; missed re-enter short!
Thanks chartlaie... saw that DHLC for re-entry ,it didn't meet my entry parameters, would have needed at least a 50% retrace of the DHLC to re-enter. Looks like I my have to change this tho, everyone is telling me I need bigger stops!

Quoting chartlaie
I saw some triangles in your charts; breakouts of these are tradeble, but you don't trade them.
attached one chart with additional line which then makes a channel.
your SL should not be inside the channel.
chartlaie
Member

chartlaie
Member

I'll sim test some triangle breakouts tonight and see if anything stands out. Also thanks for the channel tip man.

Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey equivestor12, my first impression is that you are massivley over trading.
I dont get some of the TLs you are using either, i would take them out of your trading for now to consentrate on the methods J16 teaches us. I would also go back to basics and trade the bars the traditional way with the traditional SL placements above/below the bars (at least untill you become profitable with them). Trading the retest of the bars imho is a pretty advanced way to trade them, i personally get alarm bells ringing when price retraces well into the bar as in...
Not negative at all jon, appreciate the feedback and attentivness to my trades.

Yes I may be over trading but these sets ups are spot on to my trade plan, which yes I did sim trade with positive results. So at this point I don't think I need to be worried about over trading. In fact I feel it has been beneficial to watch as many pairs as possible and take all the trades that were determined by my trade plan. Maybe this is the wrong approach but I think i'm getting more experience like this. My goal is to learn price action from this thread and incorporate it so that I can be picky and don't over trade. For now this is the best I can do. I'm actuall happy with those trades, even tho they where all losers.

I'm working with increasing my stop loss. I'v sim tested positive each week for the 28 pairs i'm watching. I averaged about 8 -15 trades on the 4hr. Lots of losers then 2 or 3 winners that covered my loses and give me some pips. I think I would get killed If I increased my stops to the top/bottom of the pin bar. That looks like it would be 50 - 100 pips sometimes, those loses seem like they would destory me. But mabye I can do this once I get a feel for how to play them better. In the beginning of the thread James16 says he's conservative and waits fo a 50% retracement of the pin, thats where that logic came from.

How would you suggest I back test price action?....should I test one pair over a year, looking for 4hr pin bars in a fib pullback, going with the daily trend?

Yes I have been documenting all my trades on a spread sheet and filing the charts for each one by week. This has been great, already referred back to last weeks files a few times. Doing the spread sheet and filing for my sim trading to.

Also, thanks for reminding me to trade when the bar breaks.

Quoting mbqb11
Hey E

I thought I would just go through quickly here and give you some thoughts

Eur/cad - Notice how this is at a swing low, we want these bars at swing highs. Also I see you taking retrace entries which is FINE, but just remember a bar is not validated till it breaks. So you run that risk. Entering so high up on a retrace runs you real close to your stop. So the general stop our rate is going to be higher in my view

gbpcad- super tiny pin coming off some much larger bullish bars. Especially on the 4hr charts you gotta really step up the level...
Thanks Mike, been listening to your webinars for some time now, great to get some advice from you man.

Yeah so i'm taking retrace entries on the 4hr in the direction of daily tend. What do you think are the best set ups to look for. I honestly don't have the foresight to be that picky yet. Some of the little nuances you talk about I don't think you can get without experince on the charts.

Any setups you can give me to sim trade over a years worth of data would be appreciated. I'v been lookin for swing point double tops in a retracement after a move, with divergence and a pin on the second swing forming the double top, seem to work out pretty consistently. Didn't have much luck backtesting pure price action yet.

Thanks
  • #97,864
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:24am Jul 5, 2011 8:24am
Could we be looking at a trend breakout here? (2 matching lows)

What worries me is that the DBLHC closed above the .9600 level. But still it could be caught on the 23.6/38.2 retracement both lying on trouble areas. comments?
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  • #97,865
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:28am Jul 5, 2011 8:28am
Quoting equivestor12
I'll sim test some triangle breakouts tonight and see if anything stands out. Also thanks for the channel tip man.


How would you suggest I back test price action?....should I test one pair over a year, looking for 4hr pin bars in a fib pullback, going with the daily trend?

Thanks
My approach would be to simply follow each of the PA trigger bars that you use and moniter the results....some ideas i would consider...
...quality of the bar, size, close etc
...did it form at a... PPZ, swing high/low, a retrace of previous swing
...was it in the direction of trend
...did it break on the next bar, if not how many before it did/ did it break at all
...how far did it retrace before breaking
...how far did it run before the first retracement, did this correspond to its FTA
...how far did it retrace after its initial move, did this correspond with the trigger bar i.e did it retest the break price.(you may like to include fibs although i dont personally use them much)
...did it continue to run after the retrace and how far
... what was the minimum stop size you could have used to stay in after the break to reach the FTA (could help in determining how to change your initial stop size and reduce risk after the break)
...what was the minimum stop size needed to stay in the trade longer term
...would it have been profitable to go to BE at FTA or more profitable to take full profits
you might find it helpfull to make some notes on your feelings about the setup also, was it a strong bar compared to the trouble spots it faced, how strong was the PA before the bar formed, was it a volitile trading day. Your initial expectations and the trade results/PA compared to these.

With this kind of info it becomes easy enough to corrolate and compare the different situations/bars and the best way to play them statisically speaking.
I think it would be a good idea to continue to forward test the ideas you come to and see if they correspond with your initiall results.
I found i got a good feel for the setups monitoring the market this way rather than predetermining my trade conditions/plans and then testing to see if they work. i found that makin trade plans after i had the databecame much more easy and realistic.
e.g.... if your data suggests that small bars rarely work out as good as nice strong bars for e.g. then passing them up becomes easy.if your data shows a stop size that works 90% of the time on a certain TF (maybe pip size, maybe % of trigger bar??) in the setups which work out, its easy to determine a realistic stop size from then on. If a bar didnt break does that corispond to other factors??e.g. small bar size, didnt form at a PPZ etc...

again just my view buddy.


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #97,866
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:49am Jul 5, 2011 8:49am
Quoting goldfish3
Could we be looking at a trend breakout here? (2 matching lows)

What worries me is that the DBLHC closed above the .9600 level. But still it could be caught on the 23.6/38.2 retracement both lying on trouble areas. comments?

looking shorter term here, on my demo account i just took a short on USD CAD following a bearish engulfing on the 4 hour chart
  • #97,867
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:09am Jul 5, 2011 9:09am
Quoting Bemac
(TOUNGE IN CHEEK) Fractals: They work in anylizing Charts. Right?
So I can J16 right down to the 1 Minute.

Sure you can. Where are you going to set your SL First TP?
I'm guessing somewhere around 3P SL & 10 TP.
That's a Whole lot of Goodbyes to 3P.

Higher TFs are required to offer a buffer against simple Knee jerk reactions.
If you don't know that yet, you will.

*Sorry Mike. didn't mean to interupt. Gotta go. Limo is here.*

B

* Edit
you could never interrupt B
  • #97,868
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:31am Jul 5, 2011 9:31am
Quoting CalistogaKid
CAN I GET AN "AMEN"?
Amen bud

Awesome CK, that's the truth with anything that's tough to achieve. You gotta be persistent, no doubt about that. There are a LOT of ups and downs for most people

Take care
Mike
  • #97,869
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:36am Jul 5, 2011 9:36am
RIGHT THATS IT!!!!!!!

thanks to this thread ive decided to take this serious now. No get rich quick thinking no more, im going to work at this.

Im only 26 years old, so i thought hey I got plenty of time (i hope)

I own my own taxi, this is where it really helps me for many reasons.
Now becuase of the determination this thread has given me, im going to work more hours, and the extra money i earn will go straight into my forex account, building it up while i trade demo this method.

I have no boss to ask for more hours, i am my boss. SO i can pick and choose. Thanks to JAmes16 wherever he is now, for drumming it into my head, that this isnt a free lunch and involves work.

Rant over, Thanks, Dean
  • #97,870
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:34am Jul 5, 2011 10:34am
I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this message, so please move it if you deem necessary. Let me provide a little context. I am a newbie researching Forex. I've done well in my career and have always enjoyed following the financial markets. Forex to me offers another possibility to make money.

I've seen a number of posts questioning the motives of James and the Private Forum. I am not a member of the private forum and have never been there. My take on all of this is that James is here to provide you with an edge. You become a member of the private forum to get an edge. You don't become a member to get rich. I think getting rich is more a matter of you. How hard do you want to work for it and what you are willing to trade. When you are successful, it takes a lot of work but having an edge helps your efforts. Let me illustrate this through one of my last investments. I'm very thankful this one went well because it could have easily been very bad.

This was a real estate investment. I flipped a house. I had never done something like this before. Please see how though you can draw a corollary between that and Forex. First, there was risk. I had to purchase a foreclosed home that had people living in it, evict them, fix up the house and sell it. I'm a computer programmer, so I'm not a construction person. And being a programmer is my full time job. So I took the risk and bought the house. I had to mortgage my own house with a home equity line to pay for this house I bought. How do you like that risk? I took on two mortgage payments but here is one point I want to make, I make enough money where that is possible. Two mortgage payments to me was not a problem. I fixed up the house over 3 months while working full time at my regular job. I negotiated with contractors, shopped around town for deals, etc. It was so much hard work. I missed almost every Saturday with my family for probably about 3 months. I worked there at night, in the morning and whenever I could get away from work. That's another point that it takes sacrifice.

I got an edge by involving a professional. I have a man in my church who does real estate investment full time. He buys 40 houses a year and he helped me buy this one. For that effort I paid him several thousand dollars. He helped me line up contractors, gave me advice on not overspending, and advised me on a ton of other matters at the house. Now I'm sure some people would say, well I think I can do the same or better and save that money. Well, sure go right ahead, but I sincerely doubt it. In the end I was profitable and everything went well. I was profitible though because I started out the house purchase almost 35 thousand less than what it was worth on the market.

The points I want to make are:

1. Being successful in this venture of flipping that house took a ton of work.
2. I had an edge because I hired a professional.
3. You probably won't be successful in Forex unless you combine some sort of the above two points of working really hard and getting a very good education.

I also want to add that being properly capitalized is vital. I could hold two mortgages and had the money to spend $10,000 on house repairs to fix up the flip house. If you are wondering about spending $100+ dollars on the private forum membership, then maybe you shouldn't do it. I would say that about anything, if you wonder about going out and spending $100 on dinner with you and your spouse, then maybe you shouldn't do it. Can't quite afford that $100 a month cable subscription, don't to it.

I haven't joined the private forum yet because honestly I'm a slow learner. I'm just trying to figure out all of this lingo before I dive in. But to the critics of James, give the guy a break. If you think you can get a better education somewhere else, then go somewhere else and stop whining. Maybe you shouldn't have spent the money on the membership because you didn't have it. And if you don't have the money, maybe you need to focus on something else than Forex for your goals and dreams. Being under capitalized will just make life difficult for you.

From everything I can see, there is a wealth of information here and questions and answers are free. Take what you can get. Give what you can give and work hard. There is a sense of support here at this forum and I'm sure if I got on here and asked a question on just anything Forex related I would get a good fast response. What more can I ask? Best of luck to everyone.
  • #97,871
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:44am Jul 5, 2011 10:44am
Quoting deankenny21
RIGHT THATS IT!!!!!!!

thanks to this thread ive decided to take this serious now. No get rich quick thinking no more, im going to work at this.

Im only 26 years old, so i thought hey I got plenty of time (i hope)

I own my own taxi, this is where it really helps me for many reasons.
Now becuase of the determination this thread has given me, im going to work more hours, and the extra money i earn will go straight into my forex account, building it up while i trade demo this method.

I have no boss to ask for more hours, i am my boss. SO i...

good for you Dean, once you put yourself into the long haul mentality it takes a lot of that pressure away we put on ourselves. If it takes 1 year, 2, 3, 5 years is it worth it? I think so.

Best
Mike
  • #97,872
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:24am Jul 5, 2011 11:24am
Quoting mbqb11
good for you Dean, once you put yourself into the long haul mentality it takes a lot of that pressure away we put on ourselves. If it takes 1 year, 2, 3, 5 years is it worth it? I think so.

Best
Mike
thanks dude, are you a part of James16 private group, you seem to be a popular member here?
  • #97,873
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:26am Jul 5, 2011 11:26am
Quoting deankenny21
thanks dude, are you a part of James16 private group, you seem to be a popular member here?
I think they all just like my avatar

I am an instructor on the site yes

Best
Mike
  • #97,874
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:27am Jul 5, 2011 11:27am
Quoting jp1900
I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this message, so please move it if you deem necessary. Let me provide a little context. I am a newbie researching Forex. I've done well in my career and have always enjoyed following the financial markets. Forex to me offers another possibility to make money.

I've seen a number of posts questioning the motives of James and the Private Forum. I am not a member of the private forum and have never been there. My take on all of this is that James is here to provide you with an edge. You become a member...

bravo

Don't think James himself could say it much better

Hope you post more while you are learning

Mike
  • #97,875
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:41am Jul 5, 2011 11:41am
Quoting mbqb11
I think they all just like my avatar

I am an instructor on the site yes

Best
Mike
ah i see, hence why i should be extra nice to you, i hope to sign up to his private membershib soon, but im learning so much from the free stuff, i just cant see whats left to say, hopefully you can shed some light on this
  • #97,876
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:28pm Jul 5, 2011 12:28pm
Hi Mike,

what do you think EUCAD D1,
SELL entry 1.3945 SL above BRN 1.4005 TP 1.3591 (R:R 7:1)
two IB state around BRN and rising TL break out at 3 day candle

brgds,
maxy
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  • #97,877
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:36pm Jul 5, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting deankenny21
thanks dude, are you a part of James16 private group, you seem to be a popular member here?
Heh... Mike's been around for awhile. Hell, I remember when he was just a little squirt trying to figure out what a pinbar was...

Yessiree those were the days... hic!
Mr. Trend
  • #97,878
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:51pm Jul 5, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting deankenny21
ah i see, hence why i should be extra nice to you, i hope to sign up to his private membershib soon, but im learning so much from the free stuff, i just cant see whats left to say, hopefully you can shed some light on this
There is so much stuff in the PF it is pretty unbelievable (and slightly overwhelming), but yeah this thread is gold imo.
  • #97,879
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:58pm Jul 5, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting ddinnov
This one I also have an over-aggressive order on (117.60) as It looks like it might be in a channel between 117.50 and about ~114.00, could be a nice one if it works out. That weekly BUOB is a concern but it didn't close above the PPZ and I think EUR might be in for some selling this week
Getting there..
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Anything can happen.
  • #97,880
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:03pm Jul 5, 2011 1:03pm
AUD/JPY is looking like it might be ina similar situation to EUR/JPY. A retest of the trednline around 85.00 could be a nice short from 87.00 or even just where it is now.
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Anything can happen.
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