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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #97,781
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:25am Jul 3, 2011 10:25am
Quoting equivestor12
The NJD/JPY trade here has the exact same setup as EUR/CHF . Mayaf isn't working for me right now so I don't know if their correlated. I feel more like i'm gambling then trading, but all in all I think my setups were pretty good for this week. if I understood how to enter correctly or had wider stops a few would have worked out to give me some nice pips for the week. Any suggestions?

thanks
hey equivestor12, my first impression is that you are massivley over trading.
I dont get some of the TLs you are using either, i would take them out of your trading for now to consentrate on the methods J16 teaches us. I would also go back to basics and trade the bars the traditional way with the traditional SL placements above/below the bars (at least untill you become profitable with them). Trading the retest of the bars imho is a pretty advanced way to trade them, i personally get alarm bells ringing when price retraces well into the bar as in your nz/cad trade for e.g. a retest of the break price is my preference. I notice you traded some of them before the bar broke and so imho it doesnt count as a retest as the bar is only valid after it breaks (e.g. eu/chf). the pairs seemed to be in a side ways market a lot of the time also, maybe this is something you could look at? only taking trades at true swing highs/lows. A SL of 20 pips is very small on these crosses and would need great timing to pull it of consistantly, maybe back testing your method would help?? or making a journal of your setups and how they work out to determine a more realistic SL??
just wondering if you cherry picked the setups and traded them in the traditional way, taking measures to protect yourself at the FTA if your results would have been different?? dont want this to sound negative as your aproach seems to me to be very good and the levels ok also, which is what makes me think of going back to basics a little??

just my view buddy

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #97,782
  • Jul 3, 2011 11:09am Jul 3, 2011 11:09am
Quoting iForex
hi, Mike
in the picture, is the BEOB you mentioned on this 30m chart or from 4h chart? if it is from this 30m chart, then the entry point will be very close to the uptrend line.
Thank you very much!

Hey Iforex

Yes you are correct it is that 30min BEOB. And yes it is right up on the upper trendline. This is a great place for it to be, because it tips off (with all the other confluence) price has no where to go but down. It is a powerful entry

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #97,783
  • Jul 3, 2011 12:24pm Jul 3, 2011 12:24pm
Hi guys/gals! How are you? Its been a while since my last post. Hope your trading was good and you made some nice profits. Ive been extremely busy with college (the second grade demanded way more time to study than the first year, i had classes all day long etc. etc.) and I had no for forex. In six months time i took 2 trades and one was a loss and another was B/E. Well it was a good remainder, cause i didnt follow the rules i learned on this thread.

Well enough with the past. Right now im looking at the GBPCHF trade which seems rather interesting. The pair is in a downtrend, its at a s/r @1.3600 and if you look on the 1hour chart you'll see that it is in consolidation right now. So imho if it goes below 1.3600 it has a chance to revisit the all-time low @1.3250. Plus the 1.3660 was a 61.8 fib which adds some more confluence. You can see the TA marked on the chart. What do you think? Will see what happens.

Dont know if you guys still trade this way. Will try to read as much posts that i missed as possible. Although the previous week i started with my legal practice and i wont have much time for forex, Again!

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  • #97,784
  • Jul 3, 2011 1:06pm Jul 3, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting whet412
Hi guys
Can anyone tell me how to attach some charts. I would like to share my own trading system to maybe help out as well. everytime I attacha file, it says my limit is too high. I am attaching from tradestation as well. thanks

Hey Whet

Not sure what limit too high is. Maybe your file size is too big

Try just using the print screen button to take a picture of your chart. Paste it into MS paint and then save that new file(you can crop it down)

Then to upload go to the manage attachments button down below the reply button and upload it

Best
Mike
  • #97,785
  • Jul 3, 2011 1:15pm Jul 3, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting equivestor12
Awesome thead, slowly working my way through it- lol... Price action has definitly been a missing part of my trading game. I'v been demo trading full time for about 1.5 years, went throuth the whole indicator phaze and feel like if i make it, its going to be primarily with price action and fibs. I also have been using mt4 to strategy test. I ran the 29 pairs I watch from the begining of 2011, on a week by week basis and was very positive, averaging around 500 pips per week. Unfortunately this success hasn't translated over to my demo account. I...
Hey E

I thought I would just go through quickly here and give you some thoughts

Eur/cad - Notice how this is at a swing low, we want these bars at swing highs. Also I see you taking retrace entries which is FINE, but just remember a bar is not validated till it breaks. So you run that risk. Entering so high up on a retrace runs you real close to your stop. So the general stop our rate is going to be higher in my view

gbpcad- super tiny pin coming off some much larger bullish bars. Especially on the 4hr charts you gotta really step up the level of pickyness. The second bar I wouldn't even call a pinbar cause it is just so tiny and representing such a small amount of time in the market place. Stick to the big bars the jump out when you are getting the hang of this

chfjpy- better size bar here just fighting again a real strong trend on the 4hr. That rising trendline is right where price got caught. By entering so high on a retrace you have nothing to help bring price down. Above the left eye where you entered price is more times going to come up above that high of that bar. The path of least resistance beyond the left eye really becomes up with the trend

nzdjpy- very much like eurcad but even small bar setup at even deeper swing low. SEe notes to eurcad

usdjpy- super super tiny pinbar. Price is going to have a ton of trouble reversing on such low momentum type bar. Think picky, think big

nzd/cad- better size bar but you are entering after price has already gone well to where we would expect it to go. To enter on a retrace after this happens sort of defeats the purpose in this case since price has done its thing already

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #97,786
  • Jul 3, 2011 1:53pm Jul 3, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting crusen
Hi Mike.
Finally have some time to do some chart stuff.
In the chart below, what are your thoughts on the strengths of (support) point 1,2,3 with that bearish outside bar with the down arrow being the entry.
Or, do you see any other "trouble areas" .
And, what would you do at each of these?
Potential support number 2 is the one that I've got the biggest question on.
This is the area of my trading that I'm trying to fine tune.
I've got my answers already typed up, but will wait to hear your reply first.
Thanks a lot!!

Edit: If the bar would...
Hey C

Remember we want a beob at a swing high, this is a swing low. So you would be trading right back into your support point at point 2. That's the problem with continuations is that most people take the bars as opposed to the situation. I am a bit confused on your quesiton but maybe you are asking the strength of points 1, 2, 3. For me 3 is strongest, followed by 2, and then 1 is a new area to watch. But these areas are zones so points 1 and 2 sort of belong in that same zone. This beob would be trading right back INTO the zone we want to trade away from these zones.

Hopefully I got your question
Mike
  • #97,787
  • Jul 3, 2011 1:59pm Jul 3, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting Bemac
Fiji. The FF Gap.

Fijitrader of the PF has been on my mind a lot lately and I just realized that he (or someone very much like him) is a major Gap here at FF.

Mike said:
"it's what you do between the good ones that usually will determine ones success or failure"
Adilius07 replied:
"Hi Mike, yes. So maybe the answer to my struggle is just NOT taking the crappy trades in between those A+ setups..."

I would like to add that either a very good memory or a journal {doesn't have to be web based} is the answer.
You see, you will be very...
Nice post B.

thanks for this wise insight

regards
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #97,788
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:41pm Jul 3, 2011 3:41pm
Hi all,

GBPCHF in strong bearish trend. Last week's retracement ended at the confluence of trend line, 61.8 fib and FTA at 1.3650ish.

i am waiting for some bearish price action. any advice from seniors??????
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  • #97,789
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:53pm Jul 3, 2011 3:53pm
I absolutely love posts like this. They refocus the camera in my head to almost take an outside in look at how I am currently viewing situations not only in trading, but also in my life. All too often I have found myself getting so caught up in protecting and defending my viewpoint as opposed to questioning how and why I arrived at the viewpoint. More importantly I have recently discovered the need to analyze in an unjudgemental way if the thought/viewpoint is really serving my greater purpose/desire. This requires me to try to remove myself from my mind and take a fly on the wall view to my own mind. Thanks for helping me take a look inside Bemac

Quoting Bemac
I would like to add that either a very good memory or a journal {doesn't have to be web based} is the answer.
You see, you will be very ineffecient at correcting past errors without two (2) Base Points of Information.
Why Did I hit the Trigger?
What was the Result?

After you have some data in both columns, I think you will find that Most of the less than perfect descisions may fall back to some kind of fear. Perhaps they were a result of euforia. {I just banked 750 Pips. I can risk 250...} BUT The Worst Reason will be {if you are honest with yourself}...
I couldn't agree more about keeping a journal. I actually keep mine in a hard copy format. I find that I gain more out of the information when writing it down with a pen and drawing diagrams etc. This one thing that has made a huge difference in my trading. The items that most regularly make it into my journal are my trades, thoughts about my trades at the time, and I also keep a "watch list" in there on a day by day basis. I am then able to look back and see what my exact sentiments were with regards to that chart and how the market reacted after I wrote my thoughts. This has turned out to be much more helpful than I thought that it would be. There is no looking back with rose tinted glasses (and the belief that I "knew" that was going to happen) if it sits in front of me in hard copy.

Quoting Bemac
If you are still in your Apprenticeship it is important to assimilate the worth of examing (Addmiting) bad choices as well as the Good ones.
Bad Choices that are not examined have no reason to stop.

So...
In retrospect...
I considered that the ability to anylize my Errors had to take precedence above anylizing my Winners.
I had to get used to being Wrong & Losing meanwhile believing I had the ability. Luckily for me...
Wow this is gold. If anyone is new then go ahead and read this about 10 times. 99% of people do not have the ability to stick with it and do the above until they are capable of consistantly showing positive gains.

The only thought on this that I have is I have removed from my trade vocabulary a few of these words- winners, losers, bad choices/decisions, and errors. I did so because I found that in my mind they had a stigma attached to them that was not conducive to allowing them to be a positive trade adjective. When describing trades I make every attempt to use the words gain or loss which (in my head at least ) only pertain to the trade account balance. The other words are learning experience and decision that I would make differently in the future. So long as we are learning from all of our trades (though it is most oftentimes the losses) then we are growing in our trading abilites. I look at this like Thomas Edison when (refering to the invention of the lightbulb) he said, "I have not failed, instead I have found 10000 ways that did not work". This is one of the reasons that demo is so damn important. As we prepare our minds to be fertile soil to grow our accounts we will come across so so many trades that "did not work". When this happens we must face the loss and learn from it. I would much prefer for this to occur with a mock account balance than real money.

Quoting Bemac
We ALL want to provide for ouselves & probably others.
None of us Want to fritter it away.
Time: Study: Patience:

B
Couldn't agree more. It all just takes time. More often than not is just a matter of learning to slow down. The issue that I see as being the biggest hurdle is that most of us did not start here with J16 thread to help form our expectations and beliefs. Most found out about forex (or trading) through "schemes" that promised huge gains in 6 months with no effort. This is just not how it really is and it is just a matter of readjusting our mindset around trading to be those neccessary for true success. One of my favorite stories that relates to trading is the one of the Zen master:

Once, a long time ago, there was a wise Zen master. People from far and near would seek his counsel and ask for his wisdom. Many would come and ask him to teach them, enlighten them in the way of Zen. He seldom turned any away.

One day an important man, a man used to command and obedience came to visit the master. “I have come today to ask you to teach me about Zen. Open my mind to enlightenment.” The tone of the important man’s voice was one used to getting his own way.

The Zen master smiled and said that they should discuss the matter over a cup of tea. When the tea was served the master poured his visitor a cup. He poured and he poured and the tea rose to the rim and began to spill over the table and finally onto the robes of the wealthy man. Finally the visitor shouted, “Enough. You are spilling the tea all over. Can’t you see the cup is full?”

The master stopped pouring and smiled at his guest. “You are like this tea cup, so full that nothing more can be added. Come back to me when the cup is empty. Come back to me with an empty mind.”

It sounds so easy (and in all honesty it is), but our minds must be an empty vessle to accept the information contained here. For most it is just a matter of waiting until our minds are ready to recognize this and empty itself of past prejudice, judgement, experiences and issues. Once this happens the light turns on and we wonder how it elluded us for so long. I have been here for 3 years now. I started out with the J16 method and the OZFX system. One of them is in the recycle bin for forex factory. The other has about 100k posts. I have demoed off and on for all 3 years seeking to prepare my mind to be a trader. In the past few months I have gone live. In the long run 3 years was not that long to obtain the knowlege I have so far as it will serve me for the rest of my life. It is a good question to ponder- How far are you willing to go? I openly admit that while I am profitable I still have much to learn. That is why I am here now, to do just that, learn.

Ryan
  • #97,790
  • Jul 3, 2011 4:16pm Jul 3, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting gungriffin
I absolutely love posts like this. They refocus the camera in my head to almost take an outside in look at how I am currently viewing situations not only in trading, but also in my life. All too often I have found myself getting so caught up in protecting and defending my viewpoint as opposed to questioning how and why I arrived at the viewpoint. More importantly I have recently discovered the need to analyze in an unjudgemental way if the thought/viewpoint is really serving my greater purpose/desire. This requires me to try to remove myself from...
wow......awesome post....thanks for this one.

I do have a question Ryan, do you trade for a life now? full-time? ; or still part-time?

Kindest regards Jonas

keep on.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #97,791
  • Jul 3, 2011 4:26pm Jul 3, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting Khurr@m
Hi all,

GBPCHF in strong bearish trend. Last week's retracement ended at the confluence of trend line, 61.8 fib and FTA at 1.3650ish.

i am waiting for some bearish price action. any advice from seniors??????
While I am not a senior I will take a stab at this one. I see things very similarly to you on this one. Not exactly sure what the chart is going to do next. I don't see a strong bullish or bearish commitment yet. As such I am doing things in much the same way as you. I am waiting for the market to provide more information hopefully in the form of either bullish or bearish PA. Just remember not to try to force the trade. It will either make sense to move forward or it will not. If it doesn't make sense, then we will just lay in waiting for the next potential opportunity to present itself.

Ryan
  • #97,792
  • Jul 3, 2011 4:53pm Jul 3, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
wow......awesome post....thanks for this one.

I do have a question Ryan, do you trade for a life now? full-time? ; or still part-time?

Kindest regards Jonas

keep on.
Hey thanks Jonas

Ha ha right now I don't know that I can give a cut and dry answer of one or the other to you. As of right now I think of my trading situation as a a bit of a hybrid answer. While I am not dependant on my trade account to provide my living wage; I still view it as one of my full time jobs. I still have a traditional job that I took recently. I made this shift to a new job for a few reasons. The first is my ability to make good money there, the second is it allows me to interact with customers in a low stress environment, and it also (and more importantly) allows me to be able to trade without it causing issues with trade management (time and mental). I am working on making a permenant mental shift to seeing my trading as what it is- my business that provides me a job with a wage that I deserve. Honestly the shift I speak about in the previous sentance has taken time and was something that I did not expect to be a hurdle in the begining. As long as my current job does not interupt my ability to trade successfully I will keep both jobs. At the moment my trade account is not to the point (size) that I would be able to keep a profitable mindset if I did need to use it for my living expenses. There would just be too much stress to make perminant percentage gains that are too large to expect continuously, but the size of my account is rapidly changing. I believe that within the next few years the size will be such that I could live off of it. At the moment I am enjoying the success that I am encountering in my life. Honestly, I just feel blessed to be in a place like the J16 thread that nurtures it.

Ryan
  • #97,793
  • Jul 3, 2011 4:57pm Jul 3, 2011 4:57pm
I wonder how much resistance 1.3500 will hold?
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  • #97,794
  • Jul 3, 2011 5:23pm Jul 3, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting 5.25
I wonder how much resistance 1.3500 will hold?

Will be very interesting to see. I almost see the PPZ to be a few pips above the 1.35 BRN too. This would be a trade that I would be out at the FTA though. Wouldn't want to fight the previous bar highs.
  • #97,795
  • Jul 3, 2011 9:29pm Jul 3, 2011 9:29pm
Hey,

A very basic question.

What does the "the PA cannot be a valid PA unless it breaks" mean? close above or below some S/R area?

Sorry for the basic and silly question.

Best
Cav
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #97,796
  • Jul 3, 2011 9:48pm Jul 3, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting CavinK
Hey,

A very basic question.

What does the "the PA cannot be a valid PA unless it breaks" mean? close above or below some S/R area?

Sorry for the basic and silly question.

Best
Cav
It means unless it moved in the direction of the PA (long or short) for a few pips (E.g -1 to 10 ). That is the reason entry is alway below or above PA to ensure the validatiy of the PA.
  • #97,797
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:39pm Jul 3, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting Pc1
It means unless it moved in the direction of the PA (long or short) for a few pips (E.g -1 to 10 ). That is the reason entry is alway below or above PA to ensure the validatiy of the PA.
Thank you PC for the explanation.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #97,798
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:51pm Jul 3, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting CavinK
..
What does the "the PA cannot be a valid PA unless it breaks" mean? close above or below some S/R area?..
in addition to Sir Pc1's reply..

with 'PA', people specifically mean 'PA setup' (Pinbars, BEOB, etc)

we generally want our PA setups to break/get triggered to confirm momentum is on our side & hence the probability of winning is (slightly*) increased. (*i say 'slightly', because a PA setup break is not a guarantee of a win)
  • #97,799
  • Jul 3, 2011 11:35pm Jul 3, 2011 11:35pm
Quoting supremeChaos
in addition to Sir Pc1's reply..

with 'PA', people specifically mean 'PA setup' (Pinbars, BEOB, etc)

we generally want our PA setups to break/get triggered to confirm momentum is on our side & hence the probability of winning is (slightly*) increased. (*i say 'slightly', because a PA setup break is not a guarantee of a win)
Thank you SC, yes surely no one can guarantee the price move in Forex Market which is a risk management process, all our activities including PA setup, PPZ analysis are for risk reduction.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #97,800
  • Jul 3, 2011 11:37pm Jul 3, 2011 11:37pm
Massive weekly BUEOB on EUR/CHF weekly Bullish Div to boot & in the direction of the monthly PB

Looks like the FTA is not too close.

order in and waiting.
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