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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #261
  • Mar 18, 2006 12:06pm Mar 18, 2006 12:06pm
Quoting mpotis
Vishalshan,


In post # 685 of this thread, Vegas indicated that he uses risk model #4 for the GBP/JPY pair.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=46&pp=15

In your chart of your observations above, you indicate that you are looking at risk model #3 for set-ups on this pair.

I am not tying to be critical here, just trying to get accurate information.

Thanks for the awsome work done preparing the chart.

mpotis
mpotis,

Thanks for the great info. I missed reading this post. I'll correct my risk model from next post.

I look forward for this kind of suggestions to fine tune my observation..

Thanks !
Shan
  • #262
  • Mar 19, 2006 12:25am Mar 19, 2006 12:25am
Hi guys,
I am a new member of this thread. Also tracking VegasDaily avery day. I am also curios about money-management. What do you think about MM in this strategy? For example:

10k account = 0.1 lot?? (100k account = 1 lot) (1000 USD account = 0.01 lot)

or better litle bit aggresiv - 10k account = 1 lot?

What is your opinion?

Rgds,
Glader
  • #263
  • Mar 19, 2006 5:48am Mar 19, 2006 5:48am
Quoting glader
or better litle bit aggresiv - 10k account = 1 lot?
Lot size must be determined by your stop loss mostly. If the stop loss for a specific trade is large, reduze lot size, and viceversa.

For a 30 pips stop loss on a EURUSD trade (every pair has its own pip value), a 10k account trading 1 standard lot means a 3% of your capital risked on every trade, which is reassonable in my opinion.

So yeah, if you stop losses are usually around the 30'ish pip area, then 1 lot per 10k on your account seems alright.
  • #264
  • Mar 19, 2006 6:13am Mar 19, 2006 6:13am
Quoting WTB
Lot size must be determined by your stop loss mostly. If the stop loss for a specific trade is large, reduze lot size, and viceversa.

For a 30 pips stop loss on a EURUSD trade (every pair has its own pip value), a 10k account trading 1 standard lot means a 3% of your capital risked on every trade, which is reassonable in my opinion.

So yeah, if you stop losses are usually around the 30'ish pip area, then 1 lot per 10k on your account seems alright.
Thank you very much for your reply.
That was I was thinkig. I ve doubled my demo 10k account during last month, but I thing some trade was to risky /like 8% capital and more/.
  • #265
  • Mar 19, 2006 9:33am Mar 19, 2006 9:33am
Quoting glader
Thank you very much for your reply.
That was I was thinkig. I ve doubled my demo 10k account during last month, but I thing some trade was to risky /like 8% capital and more/.
if it helps, i always have this size formula on my worksheet (usd):

size=[(account balance*% willing to risk)/stop size]*[# of currency units that = a $1 pip]

........................................................................................................

examples from last week's trades....

long cable @ 7264, stop @ 7222 (stop size=42)...account balance $50,0000...risk 2%...10,000 units= $1 pip

[(50,0000*.02)/42]*[10,000]=238,095 (2.38 lots)

........................................................................................................

short usd/jpy @ 118.74, stop @ 119.30 (stop size=56)...account balance $50,000...risk 2%...11,874 units= $1 pip

[(50,0000*.02)/56]*[11,874]=212,036 (2.12 lots)

........................................................................................................
  • #266
  • Mar 19, 2006 12:18pm Mar 19, 2006 12:18pm
TheBreeze, that's exactly the same formula I use to calculate my lot size, just with a 3% per trade.
  • #267
  • Mar 19, 2006 1:27pm Mar 19, 2006 1:27pm
Quoting WTB
TheBreeze, that's exactly the same formula I use to calculate my lot size, just with a 3% per trade.
i use 2% because anything higher and i'll occasionally get an itchy trigger finger...(liquidate before hitting my intended stop and then watching as it turns and heads in my directon or setting the stop to breakeven too quickly)

2% is a nice comfort zone for me...i can "plan the trade and trade the plan" with ease that way...gotta give the trade room

i applaud you for being able to go 3%...with a robust system like vwb, it'll certainly pay off...with me though, anything above 2% and the trading demons jump into my head
  • #268
  • Mar 19, 2006 2:35pm Mar 19, 2006 2:35pm
Hey Shan,

thanks for clarifying. I love your yellow charts and I do use them as advisories!

Keep them coming.

Thanks.

-S Power
  • #269
  • Mar 20, 2006 8:09am Mar 20, 2006 8:09am
Is anyone looking at the eur-aud and the aud-usd?
  • #270
  • Edited 8:32am Mar 20, 2006 8:24am | Edited 8:32am
thanks for pointing them out Ashok. what's been causing the huge moves in eur/aud or why it's so volatile?


Dan
  • #271
  • Edited 8:47am Mar 20, 2006 8:42am | Edited 8:47am
03/20/2006 at 9.35am est..

I have changed the risk model of gpb/jpy to 4 and added one more currency eur/chf to the scanner.

I'm potentially looking at 6 VWB reversals currently...sounds crazy!?

Shan

Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
Attached Image
  • #272
  • Mar 20, 2006 9:01am Mar 20, 2006 9:01am
Is an automatic tool that you call radar? Or is just your jugement?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #273
  • Mar 20, 2006 9:24am Mar 20, 2006 9:24am
Gentlemen I am now long USDJPY with 2 mini lots. My stop is 115.80.
  • #274
  • Mar 20, 2006 9:29am Mar 20, 2006 9:29am
Quoting vishalshan

Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
LOL I like your disclaimer Shan. I think you should tweak it to the way they have it written on magazines and those make million programs:

The following are observations and not recommendations or suggestions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading is a risk. You can loose all.

LOL
  • #275
  • Mar 20, 2006 9:35am Mar 20, 2006 9:35am
Quoting WTB
Lot size must be determined by your stop loss mostly. If the stop loss for a specific trade is large, reduze lot size, and viceversa.

For a 30 pips stop loss on a EURUSD trade (every pair has its own pip value), a 10k account trading 1 standard lot means a 3% of your capital risked on every trade, which is reassonable in my opinion.

So yeah, if you stop losses are usually around the 30'ish pip area, then 1 lot per 10k on your account seems alright.
Could you direct me to a list of the pip values for each pair? Thanks!
  • #276
  • Mar 20, 2006 9:57am Mar 20, 2006 9:57am
With all the various VWB threads floating around is there a thread for the official VWB signals? Meaning whenever Vegas himself actually enters a trade?

It would be nice if the admins could create a locked down thread for whenever Vegas enters a trade.

I think it would be a good idea for purists and newbies who would like to follow the system to a 'T' and to not be confused when everyone else jumps in a trade on their own accord.

I know Vegas said to take his system and run with and modify it as you please.

Just my 2 pips worth and I would glad take 2 pips lately.
Still haven't found what I'm looking for...
  • #277
  • Mar 20, 2006 10:00am Mar 20, 2006 10:00am
Shan,
I love your chart. I have made my own notes of what we're watching and enjoy finding we are all on the same page.
One question, though. I have risk Model #2 for the USD/CAD and you have model #1. Did Vegas suggest changing it from the document? I like yours better, but am trying to follow the rules.
Thanks,
Marilyn
  • #278
  • Mar 20, 2006 10:07am Mar 20, 2006 10:07am
Quoting wcalem
Could you direct me to a list of the pip values for each pair? Thanks!
The pip value varies constantly with the fluctuation. What I personally do in order to know the exact pip value for an specific pair at one specific moment is to open a position on a demo account with 1 standard lot and divide the profit (actually the loss due to spread) with the spread, so you get the exact value of one pip.
  • #279
  • Mar 20, 2006 10:10am Mar 20, 2006 10:10am
Is it me, or did we get a valid VWB today on USDJPY according to the 3 concept rules at all?
  • #280
  • Mar 20, 2006 10:17am Mar 20, 2006 10:17am
Quoting WTB
The pip value varies constantly with the fluctuation. What I personally do in order to know the exact pip value for an specific pair at one specific moment is to open a position on a demo account with 1 standard lot and divide the profit (actually the loss due to spread) with the spread, so you get the exact value of one pip.
Thanks, that is a good idea.
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