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Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator

  • #261
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:59am Jun 29, 2011 7:59am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Risk taken off the table...talk about a thin market!
smart move! I was away from screen .. said before I feel this is top but if we hit 1.4460 I'm a bull again will see
  • #262
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:00am Jun 29, 2011 8:00am
Quoting newyear498
smart move! I was away from screen .. said before I feel this is top but if we hit 1.4460 I'm a bull again will see
Try it after the vote and I guarantee you will get whipsawed.
  • #263
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:02am Jun 29, 2011 8:02am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Risk taken off the table...talk about a thin market!
Missed that entry

Thin market indeed.
  • #264
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:50am Jun 29, 2011 8:50am
not a big upspike as expecting but oh well.. good news for USD coming soon I think.. shall see

one of my positions I'm targeting 1.4260
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  • #265
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:04am Jun 29, 2011 9:04am
Quoting newyear498
not a big upspike as expecting but oh well.. good news for USD coming soon I think.. shall see

one of my positions I'm targeting 1.4260
poor greece.. they should just jack up the prices on tourists LOL..

Risk Aversion today and I plan to use that and take a long if the price is right for the upcoming week

however tomorrow might be bearish as well considering they have more voting tomorrow
  • #266
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:14am Jun 29, 2011 9:14am
Good plays..but I'm playing things out on EUR/GBP rather than EUR/USD..can't read it too well regarding the end of QE2 etc. I only have on position left in EUR/USD at 1.4260, incidentally your target, and I think I'll just leave it alone and see what plays out. I'll close it off around NFP time depending on how things play out.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #267
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:14am Jun 29, 2011 10:14am
May not have been my prettiest of entries, but risk's taken off and I get to enjoy that lovely swap.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #268
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:15am Jun 29, 2011 11:15am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Good plays..but I'm playing things out on EUR/GBP rather than EUR/USD..can't read it too well regarding the end of QE2 etc. I only have on position left in EUR/USD at 1.4260, incidentally your target, and I think I'll just leave it alone and see what plays out. I'll close it off around NFP time depending on how things play out.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
nice long your holding onto..

don't worry my short failed probably too aggressive however I am taking one more wack near the high
  • #269
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:16am Jun 29, 2011 11:16am
Quoting newyear498
nice long your holding onto..

don't worry my short failed probably too aggressive however I am taking one more wack near the high
I'm basically trying to pick a top thats never good but I like the look of it so one more go hmmm
  • #270
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:30pm Jun 29, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting newyear498
nice long your holding onto..
Thanks!

Quote
don't worry my short failed probably too aggressive however I am taking one more wack near the high
Phew..at least I can sleep soundly knowing you won't get my stop

As a side note, I unfortunately am running into the unfortunate constraints of margin. I never really planned for this to be an issue, but my margin is now quite restricted, since it's tied up in a few positions across EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and AUD/JPY. The problem is that the trades have potential to develop further, and so I don't want to close them, but still want to take some short term plays to top up the account. I've tried to lower my risk to 1%-1.5% but to no avail. Any advice as to how this can be managed would be appreciated.

Using the little bit of margin I have left, I took a short term play on EUR/USD, but feel very tired tonight, so can't babysit it. Let's hope nobody does anything naughty/unexpected in the interim.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #271
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:48pm Jun 29, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Thanks!

Phew..at least I can sleep soundly knowing you won't get my stop

As a side note, I unfortunately am running into the unfortunate constraints of margin. I never really planned for this to be an issue, but my margin is now quite restricted, since it's tied up in a few positions across EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and AUD/JPY. The problem is that the trades have potential to develop further, and so I don't want to close them, but still want to take some short term plays to top up the account. I've tried to lower my risk to 1%-1.5% but to no avail....
if all your positions are safe (like at BE) you can increase your leverage.. it would allow more margin and its safe to do if like I said.. your other positions are only risking potential profits

good job! I don't have many runners.. I tried this week a few times but I'm not sure if I really should give up my old style.. I usually take the pips but this week I watch them build up and then take me out at BE.. it was kinda frustrating.. but at the same time i caught some nice runs.. Just don't think i have what it takes to pull off how your doing it.. :/
  • #272
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:55pm Jun 29, 2011 7:55pm
Quoting newyear498
if all your positions are safe (like at BE) you can increase your leverage.. it would allow more margin and its safe to do if like I said.. your other positions are only risking potential profits
Heya newyear498, unfortunately I'm already at 50:1 which is the max leverage offered with OANDA, and the positions are essentially risk-free..gonna have to think of a creative way to address this..I'll sleep on it.

Quote
good job! I don't have many runners.. I tried this week a few times but I'm not sure if I really should give up my old style.. I usually take the pips but this week I watch them build up and then take me out at BE.. it was kinda frustrating.. but at the same time i caught some nice runs.. Just don't think i have what it takes to pull off how your doing it.. :/
No problem, everyone's approach is different..you seem to be adept at short-term trading and if done proficiently can see your account compound very nicely. I can't really afford to do that with school and all so I took a more..'let your profits run' approach to get outsized Risk:Reward ratios to make up for the smaller frequency of trades. Do what works for you

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #273
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:05pm Jun 29, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya newyear498, unfortunately I'm already at 50:1 which is the max leverage offered with OANDA, and the positions are essentially risk-free..gonna have to think of a creative way to address this..I'll sleep on it.

No problem, everyone's approach is different..you seem to be adept at short-term trading and if done proficiently can see your account compound very nicely. I can't really afford to do that with school and all so I took a more..'let your profits run' approach to get outsized Risk:Reward ratios to make up for the smaller frequency...
Very nice.. I realized if I'm more conservative.. like putting a .25% risk into a trade.. getting it to BE and then working in another .25% .. get to BE rinse wash repeat

then yes you could with minimal risk build up a huge amount of capital running with the trend.. it seems very lucrative..

but could you explain how your building positions?

Your right about our different styles.. but with the trends we saw recently it seemed worth a shot riding a few..


Thanks
  • #274
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:18am Jun 30, 2011 7:18am
Quoting newyear498
Very nice.. I realized if I'm more conservative.. like putting a .25% risk into a trade.. getting it to BE and then working in another .25% .. get to BE rinse wash repeat

then yes you could with minimal risk build up a huge amount of capital running with the trend.. it seems very lucrative..

but could you explain how your building positions?

Your right about our different styles.. but with the trends we saw recently it seemed worth a shot riding a few..


Thanks
Heya newyear498, essentially it just involves identifying a scenario to trade, and then identifying trades which look like they have the potential to 'stick' so that price never comes back. Early in my development I was made aware of the fact that many participants would be thrilled with a 100 pip gain, but had they held out for just a week or two, they could have easily multiplied this 5 fold with no additional work.

In other news, the target for my recent EUR/USD trade was hit soon after I it the hay for the night. The AUD/JPY trade is maturing nicely, and I think it just may be able to withstand the Greek implementation votes today, so I'm going to leave it at BE, since the market looks like it may want to take on some risk-on attitude next week. In that case, AUD/JPY should rise nicely.

May think of taking another long position in EUR/USD or EUR/GBP depending on how things go tonight. Ideally, I'd want to initiate a position in both but..Mr.Margin says no. I'll sit on the remaining few I have.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #275
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:38am Jun 30, 2011 7:38am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya newyear498, essentially it just involves identifying a scenario to trade, and then identifying trades which look like they have the potential to 'stick' so that price never comes back. Early in my development I was made aware of the fact that many participants would be thrilled with a 100 pip gain, but had they held out for just a week or two, they could have easily multiplied this 5 fold with no additional work.

In other news, the target for my recent EUR/USD trade was hit soon after I it the hay for the night. The AUD/JPY trade...
dude if your short on margin it sounds like your banking.. so fucking jealous LOL

why don't you cut you lowest gainers and anything thats kinda ranging..

you could also sell half or 1/4 of any position that looks like it had a huge rally and wait for the pull back to get in

or maybe you should just be happy and enjoy the money..

the choice is your.. blue pill or red pill?

  • #276
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:40am Jun 30, 2011 7:40am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya newyear498, essentially it just involves identifying a scenario to trade, and then identifying trades which look like they have the potential to 'stick' so that price never comes back. Early in my development I was made aware of the fact that many participants would be thrilled with a 100 pip gain, but had they held out for just a week or two, they could have easily multiplied this 5 fold with no additional work.
Well I am in favour. I have played out similar scenario 3 times within a month now. I could take 5-6% win on daily basis. But sticking out for longer period and extended move I have taken 22-25% on each of the 3 trades.

Quote
In other news, the target for my recent EUR/USD trade was hit soon after I it the hay for the night. The AUD/JPY trade is maturing nicely, and I think it just may be able to withstand the Greek implementation votes today, so I'm going to leave it at BE, since the market looks like it may want to take on some risk-on attitude next week. In that case, AUD/JPY should rise nicely.

May think of taking another long position in EUR/USD or EUR/GBP depending on how things go tonight. Ideally, I'd want to initiate a position in both but..Mr.Margin...

I took that 4500 break yesterday. It did play well.
  • #277
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:10am Jun 30, 2011 8:10am
Quoting newyear498
dude if your short on margin it sounds like your banking.. so fucking jealous LOL
Banking I don't know..but the gains are modest..except I'm sitting on most of it unrealized. Have to hope no shocks come into the market..(read: credit agencies)

Quote
why don't you cut you lowest gainers and anything thats kinda ranging..

you could also sell half or 1/4 of any position that looks like it had a huge rally and wait for the pull back to get in

or maybe you should just be happy and enjoy the money..

the choice is your.. blue pill or red pill?
Blue pill, blue pill, enjoy the moment I've been burned too many times waiting for pullbacks that never materialize. Hmmm..looks like you've given me a new idea to incorporate into my money management..break up the original orders into several little equivalent chunks so I can take profit as I see fit..gonna do some thinking about it.


Quoting vicky_ag
Well I am in favour. I have played out similar scenario 3 times within a month now. I could take 5-6% win on daily basis. But sticking out for longer period and extended move I have taken 22-25% on each of the 3 trades.

I took that 4500 break yesterday. It did play well.
Nice work! Not many people can say they gain double digit monthly ROI!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #278
  • Jul 1, 2011 4:17am Jul 1, 2011 4:17am
Heya guys, my mind is currently buzzing so I'm putting down some thoughts right here.

Regarding the whole EuroZone/Greece debt saga, I think it's safe to say that the can has been successfully kicked down the road. Now all that needs to happen is for a few months to pass, and towards the end of August moving into September, the market will again begin to focus on the Greek Debt scenario, as it is very likely that they will fall short of their targets when the Troika comes along to visit. Greece CDS give me further confidence with my analysis. There is economic slowdown, and with all the strikes and protests, Greece will at best tread water for now, instead of continuing with the growth it needs to keep on track. I'm watching for news regarding how Greece carries along with it's privatizations, as well as any updates on it's reform implementation.

My EUR trades will be closed as Thursday's interest rate hikes draw nearer. I'm anticipating further pricing in till around 1.47/1.48, at which time I plan to short the actual announcement, in a buy the rumor, sell the fact manner. That trade I may leave until the following day, or early into the next week. I'll then go long at the bottom, playing on fears of the US Debt Ceiling.

Like I said above, moving further along into the coming months, it will be interesting to see how all of this unfolds. With the end of QE2, I'm seeing rising yields, as bonds will be subject to much less buying pressure. In the event that the EZ finally realizes that Greece's debt is unsustainable, it will be forced to swallow the heavy pill that is debt restructuring/default. I have read a few views such as the EZ country governments swallowing the toxic debt, a politically suicidal move, but my attention is definitely piqued by the more likely and interesting role China will play the situation, as it can very well pony up enough in foreign reserves to buy a few Greeces.

Globally, I'm starting to see things coming to a soft patch, which may very well develop into a serious recession depending on the outcome of the Greece scenario. I'm watching the property market in Australia and China, as well as growth in these two economies, and the US (no need to watch US housing because it stinks). With the rising yields of US Treasuries, it is very likely that if things slow-down, coupled with uncertainty surrounding Greece, we may very well get a US safe haven bid.

That being said, I'd like to begin some small, conservative positions on XAU/USD, as recently it's activity has been piquing my interest. My only draw back is margin-related. We may also see some interesting action as participants move into the long weekend, coupled with half/quarter squaring in a long market.

I'm also looking at US ISM Manufacturing, and would like to play it today. Market is expecting some higher than expected results, so I'd like to short USD in a buy the rumor sell the fact manner. I just need to find a pair to do it on, and I'm thinking maybe USD/CHF, back down into the figure.

I posted sometime ago that I had initiated a position in AUD/JPY and am benefitting from some lovely swap. It turns out that just maintaining that small position for 1 month would net me 1% in swap alone..definitely going to look into the possibilities for carry trades when the global environment favours them again.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #279
  • Jul 1, 2011 4:54am Jul 1, 2011 4:54am
^^^ Great write up, Trizzle. I have been holding my horses to go long on EU at 4485. What a fall, though cant find any news on it. Any ideas?
  • #280
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:37am Jul 1, 2011 5:37am
Quoting vicky_ag
^^^ Great write up, Trizzle. I have been holding my horses to go long on EU at 4485. What a fall, though cant find any news on it. Any ideas?
Thanks man..not quite sure what it could have been but perhaps it was a vanilla near 1.4500?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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