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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #97,541
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:26am Jun 29, 2011 7:26am
Quoting supremeChaos
only u can answer that.
do u feel bad about your performance?
any bad emotions, stress, etc?

trade higher timeframes, get comfortable & good at it : this is the constant guideline in this thread specifically to avoid &/or reduce the number of trader 'casualties'.
but if u feel u are past that stage, & know what u are doing, u can do this in any timeframe, with whatever instrument.
of course, u are responsible for every & any decision that u make.

i think u may have found your trading style/rhythm.. Keep it up!
Thanks for the advice supreme. Yes I am comfortable with what I do, but the 30% loss rate is still not good enough for me. i need to tweak my style a bit and I think ill take your advice to consider trading higher time frames more often. I'm going to carry on demoing until this can be reduced to a maximum of 10%.

I feel this 30% loss rate is due to the heavy number of trades I had this month.
  • #97,542
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:34am Jun 29, 2011 7:34am
Quoting snowly
1.
2. I use GMT and EST charts.

That being said, it's not about finding a shape on your chart, is about finding a certain setup. You look an abrupt advance to a potential support/resistance and an abrupt rejection from said zone with a good room to run in the rejection direction.

It's not necessarily a pinbar. It can be a pinbar on someone else's feed and a full bar up, followed by a full bar down on your feed. It's not very relevant - it's the action that matters. How it's drawn is less relevant(though obviously it helps - if many people see...

Do you mean that you search for Pin Bars in both platforms separately? (in case of Pin Bars)
Otherwise, look what happen in two platforms with different GMT offset:
(I mean there is no chance to open position in the second case at the same time)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #97,543
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:41am Jun 29, 2011 7:41am
Hi Kal

Thanks for the great explanation.
In the past I made the mistake of having multiple positions open at the same time which was risky since most pairs are correlated between each other.

I will follow your approach for J16 setups.

Thanks!
Andreas


Quoting Kalbar
Hey Andreas

I normally risk max of 2% per trade(micro) and only have 1 trade on at a time but would consider 2 at a time if really good A+ setups. A couple of weeks back I had 2 good winners but I also spotted another couple of good setups that worked well but I failed to pull the trigger - if I had it could have been a stellar week! So maybe I am not comfortable with more than 1 or 2 trades on at same time.
Sometimes I am still hesitating at good setups and maybe being too conservative but I think its good strategy for me at the moment when...
  • #97,544
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:55am Jun 29, 2011 7:55am
Quoting bizkam
Hello, I have few questions about this method:

1. Risk / Reward is usually less than 1:1 or near it.
- Is it ok? Losing of one trade means that next two must be profitable.

2. Brokers offer different GMT offset time: GMT 0 / +1 / +2 / +3 - this means that H4 candles will look different.
- Is there any preference?

Any ideas will be appreciated!
Thanks!
Hey Biz

Risk:reward is going to depend on the trader and how they want to use this method. For me my R:R varies from trade to trade. Sometimes it is 1:1, sometimes less, sometimes more. To me it's all about the situation. If your R:R is always less then 1 you simply just need to raise your win rate. You can have a VERY high winrate and a low r:R and still come out fine.

As for brokers times, I personally use 4 brokers one for each different 4hr close. I do this just to get a different aggregation of the bars and a different view. Price is still price. So go with what is comfortable

Take care
Mike
  • #97,545
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:57am Jun 29, 2011 7:57am
Quoting human2
Does anyone know how I can stop getting emails to tell me of new replies on this thread? I don't want these emails as I check the thread on a regular basis. I have already emailed FF, but no reply.
Hey Human

Try going to your user control panel, you must have subscribed to the thread at some point. From there you can unsubscribe to any threads you have

Best
Mike
  • #97,546
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:00am Jun 29, 2011 8:00am
Quoting goldfish3
So I end my first month (22 working days) with a total of 62 trades, win-to-loss ratio 70:30. 12 percent up. All trades based on intraday PA, indicators and chart patterns. Avg. pips per trade around 30 to 40.

I think I might be overtrading..

I see most traders here are very conservative with their trade count. But I do see alot more PA setups. True they might not all be A+. But I notice that in the small TF charts PA setups can be useful for an upcoming scalping opportunity, where as the larger TF's are very good for riding the trend....
Hey Goldfish

My opinion based purely on observations of other traders over the year is that 62 trades a month is very high. Now you clearly came out with profit and the real truth is that no one can know if you are overtrading or not. You have to see where you are 6months-12months down the line. For most 62 would probably put them in the hole and pretty quick. I treat all timeframes the same so to me a daily is no different in my approach then a 5min in that regards. I would just continue to demo and see how you do. If things go sour I would look immediately to over trading as the cause

Best
Mike
  • #97,547
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:06am Jun 29, 2011 8:06am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Human

Try going to your user control panel, you must have subscribed to the thread at some point. From there you can unsubscribe to any threads you have

Best
Mike
Thanks Mike.
  • #97,548
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:14am Jun 29, 2011 8:14am
Quoting AndreasF
Hi Kal

Thanks for the great explanation.
In the past I made the mistake of having multiple positions open at the same time which was risky since most pairs are correlated between each other.

I will follow your approach for J16 setups.

Thanks!
Andreas
Hey Andreas

I dont think there is a problem with multiple positions on IF you are a good experienced trader. However for us newer traders its a bit risky as we are still learning the game and building confidence and a bad day with multiple positions on could dent confidence, which is something we dont want.

Personally I am happy with 1 or 2 good trades a week on Weekly and or daily as that is all you need to build your confidence and belief. Once we've nailed that down we can then move forward and maybe go down and demo shorter TFs like 4h and 1h and see how we get on. Its all about building slowly but surely than getting rich quick!

Good trading

Kal
  • #97,549
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:15am Jun 29, 2011 8:15am
Sorry if this question has been answered before....
How Much should I risk... How Many Pairs should I track...

To me, the answer is simple. If you are dealing with those questions then my advice to you would be...
Later... You can deal with those issues Later...
We don't post Statements ! This is not a Tournament.
The Formative years shold be comprised of Market Awareness. Not Max Profit / Risk.
Set your Trading, New Order Volume to default at Min. 0.1 or 0.01 or whatever.
Listen; this is not a pi$$ing contest. It's about learning another method of generating income for You & Yours.
Let me put it another way...
95% of you will try to win this {mostly Demo} race.
5% of us don't see it that way.

When you DO get to the point of having to decide How Much Should I Risk...
Back in the 90's {20 years ago}while I was Trading a Private Fund & watching "Everything" I devised a Trading Exposure Rule that worked out just fine.

30/8

No More than 30% of account exposed to Margin.
No More than 8% OF THE 30% exposed to the same Market.

{Homework assignment.
What is 8% of 30%}
Currency Trading is but a Single Market.



B
  • #97,550
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:22am Jun 29, 2011 8:22am
Quoting bizkam
Do you mean that you search for Pin Bars in both platforms separately? (in case of Pin Bars)
Otherwise, look what happen in two platforms with different GMT offset:
(I mean there is no chance to open position in the second case at the same time)
hey biz,

On the first chart you have a pin on the second chart you have an inside bar. Both of these setups would be tradeable based on PA.
  • #97,551
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:38am Jun 29, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Bemac
Sorry if this question has been answered before....
How Much should I risk... How Many Pairs should I track...

To me, the answer is simple. If you are dealing with those questions then my advice to you would be...
Later... You can deal with those issues Later...
We don't post Statements ! This is not a Tournament.
The Formative years shold be comprised of Market Awareness. Not Max Profit / Risk.
Set your Trading, New Order Volume to default at Min. 0.1 or 0.01 or whatever.
Listen; this is not a pi$$ing contest. It's about learning another...
Very well said. I also love your account statement, taking responsibility for your trades whether they are winner or losers is a huge step forward. Sometimes I take trades because people post charts here, but I make sure I look through it and I make the decision whether to enter or not and take responsibility for the trade.
  • #97,552
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:50am Jun 29, 2011 8:50am
Hi Kal

Agree in full.
No need to rush as long as we are stil learning.

Cheers
Andreas


Quoting Kalbar
Hey Andreas

I dont think there is a problem with multiple positions on IF you are a good experienced trader. However for us newer traders its a bit risky as we are still learning the game and building confidence and a bad day with multiple positions on could dent confidence, which is something we dont want.

Personally I am happy with 1 or 2 good trades a week on Weekly and or daily as that is all you need to build your confidence and belief. Once we've nailed that down we can then move forward and maybe go down and demo shorter TFs like 4h and...
  • #97,553
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:59am Jun 29, 2011 8:59am
Quoting supremeChaos
the TL is barely visible (i think u used a dark color).

Placing an entry on a break of that Trend Line would be 1 way of doing it. (actually, if u look closely, the break of the TL corresponds to the (simultaneous) break of the PB.)

u were right, the PB lacked space around it. that might have been 1 of the reasons why it didnt break on the subsequent bar (this happens quite often -- the break happens after a few bars)

more ideas:
some remove their entry orders once the subsequent bar doesnt trigger their orders.
some avoid trading the quiet...
Thanks for the feedback. I generally don't trade the asian session but I'm willing to if I like the setup or in this case, think the trade needs to be watched. The other thing I noticed was the IBFX feed (NY close) did not show a PB. i'm using tadawul feed where the 4HR candle closes at 6PM est. In this case though, price broke out during the London session. If I had left my original stop where it was, I would have been golden. Hindsight is 20/20 though. The more failed trades I endure, the closer I am to the winner. Good learning experience. That's how I look at it.
  • #97,554
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:04am Jun 29, 2011 9:04am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Biz

Risk:reward is going to depend on the trader and how they want to use this method. For me my R:R varies from trade to trade. Sometimes it is 1:1, sometimes less, sometimes more. To me it's all about the situation. If your R:R is always less then 1 you simply just need to raise your win rate. You can have a VERY high winrate and a low r:R and still come out fine.

As for brokers times, I personally use 4 brokers one for each different 4hr close. I do this just to get a different aggregation of the bars and a different view. Price...

Hello Mike,

Your R:R depends on how far the nearest Support or Resistance level is?
If reward is bigger, then it is necessary to protect the trade by setting it to Break Even.
I'd like to ask how do you decide what value to use - is it fixed? Or equal to Stop Loss?

Thank you!
  • #97,555
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:06am Jun 29, 2011 9:06am
Quoting bizkam
Do you mean that you search for Pin Bars in both platforms separately? (in case of Pin Bars)
Otherwise, look what happen in two platforms with different GMT offset:
(I mean there is no chance to open position in the second case at the same time)
I search for patterns on only 1 chart(my usual chart - EST in my case, but I've picked EST without a particular reason). But closing time is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned - 4 charts however would help with comfort since you won't have to compound bars in your head.

I use 2 because I want to see what others are seeing, which I think is important, and since London and NY are the big ones, I stick with GMT and EST.

Also, I use mostly H1 and I prefer to compound in my head H1 bars to get an action then use the H4, but that's a matter of taste. I use H1 because I'm mostly trading on news, so I'm generally pretty aware of what happened that hour and triggered a certain move. And also, generally I'm more interested in news then in price action.

But again, essentially it's not about a certain shape, is about a certain "price action". Gets somewhere where it should get(let's say a major station, in case of a train) and you see what it does there - keeps on going or gets back. If it gets back hard you'll see a pin on your chart(depending on feed, you might not see one, but the train will still probably get back to the starting station even if your timetable is different and doesn't show a pin). It tried a breakout, got beaten back badly; so... it won't try again for some time(usually)

In the case you posted, I was listening to Trichet and shorting for the life of it without looking at any chart... And I wouldn't have shorted on that pin - was before the rate announcement; while I didn't think it would be a serie of rate increases, it would've been absurd to put my money before hearing the news...

And both charts have a pin on 4 May during start NY as far as I'm concerned(one is drawn as a hefty bar up followed by an equal bar down with an upper moustache - still a pin if you compound)

Quote
Currency Trading is but a Single Market.
amen to that; even more, some pairs are 1 and the same.


Quote
So I end my first month (22 working days) with a total of 62 trades, win-to-loss ratio 70:30. 12 percent up. All trades based on intraday PA, indicators and chart patterns. Avg. pips per trade around 30 to 40.

I think I might be overtrading..
how many times were you stressed? how many times you doubled up your bet(open 2 jpy positions, opened both aud/usd and usd/cad in opposite directions, stuff like that) by mistake(i.e - let an order at some level which was triggered after you entered on a similar pair - if you did it on purpose, with a reason, it's ok)? what was the maximum drawdown you experienced(not closed, how much negative you had at the worst moment, % wise).

stress can actually be irrelevant; you might be "braver" then the average(not necessarily a good thing - just something you should take into acct.). I'm always stressed for instance(beats me why, but in the end noone forces me to do this, so... and I try to take that into acct.).

But maximum negative % is probably relevant.

If in your worst moment you didn't have more then 1 - 2% negative, then you're probably ok. The amount of trades obviously depends on how much time you have too.

I'm on 10-12h/day - obviously I trade more... Also, for instance, today before the greek vote I've shorted eur against 4 currencies and longed jpy on 2(ok, that was dubious, despite one being eur) - technically it's 5 trades, despite the fact that in reality is only 1. If your 62 are 10 in reality...
  • #97,556
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:07am Jun 29, 2011 9:07am
Quoting J.W. Holmes
hey biz,

On the first chart you have a pin on the second chart you have an inside bar. Both of these setups would be tradeable based on PA.
Yes, you right! Currently I don't use inside bars, so I ignored it, but it is valid setup.
Thank you!
  • #97,557
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:08am Jun 29, 2011 9:08am
Great post Bemac. Very insightful.

Awesome to hear this from a Vet trader like you. neebies should listen closely.


Quoting Bemac
Sorry if this question has been answered before....
How Much should I risk... How Many Pairs should I track...

To me, the answer is simple. If you are dealing with those questions then my advice to you would be...
Later... You can deal with those issues Later...
We don't post Statements ! This is not a Tournament.
The Formative years shold be comprised of Market Awareness. Not Max Profit / Risk.
Set your Trading, New Order Volume to default at Min. 0.1 or 0.01 or whatever.
Listen; this is not a pi$$ing contest. It's about learning another method...
  • #97,558
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:14am Jun 29, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Bemac
Sorry if this question has been answered before....
How Much should I risk... How Many Pairs should I track...

To me, the answer is simple. If you are dealing with those questions then my advice to you would be...
Later... You can deal with those issues Later...
We don't post Statements ! This is not a Tournament.
The Formative years shold be comprised of Market Awareness. Not Max Profit / Risk.
Set your Trading, New Order Volume to default at Min. 0.1 or 0.01 or whatever.
Listen; this is not a pi$$ing contest. It's about learning another method...
Take this word even I cannot quite catch the exact point, but someday I will.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #97,559
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:18am Jun 29, 2011 9:18am
Quoting bizkam
Hello Mike,

Your R:R depends on how far the nearest Support or Resistance level is?
If reward is bigger, then it is necessary to protect the trade by setting it to Break Even.
I'd like to ask how do you decide what value to use - is it fixed? Or equal to Stop Loss?

Thank you!
Hey Biz

Check out this post for my approach. It varies from trade to trade that I take based on what I see around and what I consider the most logical approach to exiting that trade

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post2853922

If I think a trade warrants me to trail out I trail out
If I think a trade warrants a quick take profit - I do that
If I think a trade warrants a quick move to b/e but let run I do that.
If I think a trade warrants a trail out and a fixed target if reached - I do that

The list is pretty much like that. So My R:R is not set unless I have a set take profit from the start. For me R:R is largely meaningless but being a number over the VERY long run. Trade to trade it doesn't matter. I have had months(this even being one of them) where my R:R has been very poor from a number standpoint trade to trade. But my win rate being very high that means nothing to me. Just the bottom line of % gain/loss over the course of ALL my trades

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #97,560
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:18am Jun 29, 2011 9:18am
Quoting dmc
Great post Bemac. Very insightful.

Awesome to hear this from a Vet trader like you. neebies should listen closely.
who's more fun then Bemac to read
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