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Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator

  • #221
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:42pm Jun 27, 2011 3:42pm
Not really a stop hunter but I'll take the opportunity.. noticed a heavy stop cluster here.. also had a lot of buy order from people looking for a break out.. not bad
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  • #222
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:44pm Jun 27, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting newyear498
Not really a stop hunter but I'll take the opportunity.. noticed a heavy stop cluster here.. also had a lot of buy order from people looking for a break out.. not bad
should hit 1.4350 thats my goal to sell half
  • #223
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:56pm Jun 27, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting bronxterp
I've subscribed to your journal and read all the order flow stuff available here. Love what you're doing here being in the flow of news/sentiment. FYI, NFP is next Friday, July 8th. I just realized that myself a few hours ago
Heya bronxterp, good to have you around! Glad you're liking it so far. Goodness me I didn't even realize that! Hmmm..guess that's one less position for me? Maybe, maybe not..we'll see how things play out.

Quoting bug
Hey, Trizzle!
Looks like you're doing great. I'm sorry I haven't been around posting here much, I've been preoccupied by reading up on order flow (here and elsewhere), market profile, market microstructure etc. I knew this stuff was important but I never realized the application opportunities until now. Man do I feel like the class outcast who hasn't been told where the party's at
Just kidding here, I'm all good.
Heya bug, that's particularly what drew me into evaluating the whole thing so seriously...so many applications..so many opportunities..it allows you to get really creative. Best of all it's highly scalable to almost any market.

Quote
FF is a big place and even though I try to keep up with the posts of people I've vouched for I don't have time for everything. Much to my surprise I some very intelligent and insightful posts of yours on the first order flow thread (the one by Carnegie). I read the whole thread, took some notes, printed out a few posts (yours included) and took the advice of grkfx - went offline, sat down and started thinking about it with a pen and paper (with printouts to help...
Thanks for the encouragement man..it's really appreciated! I can only see it augmenting your trading further down the line, and wish you continued success with it..but be forewarned..it's addictive! I'd definitely recommend grkfx's stuff..truly changed the way I approach trading.

Quoting newyear498
Not really a stop hunter but I'll take the opportunity.. noticed a heavy stop cluster here.. also had a lot of buy order from people looking for a break out.. not bad
I just woke up and missed this! Nice eye!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #224
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:06pm Jun 27, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
So the following are my thoughts regarding my EUR trades:

I have 2 positions on EUR/GBP, but I seek to establish a few more, as they have the potential to be medium term legs. I'm thinking of diversifying into EUR/USD and EUR/CHF, the latter especially because the market is highly positioned short.

Favourable outcomes to the Greek votes on Wednesday and Thursday, should provide the pairing with some near-term relief, bringing us to around 1.4500 perhaps. I'm looking to trade these events, as well as NFP to see if I can establish some legs...
EUR/CHF looks good for the short

however I am not planing on shorting anything EUR right now due to the volatility associated with.. the EUR will probably rally even if it breaks the law of modern day science

be safe


http://www.mataf.net/en/forex-charts/c-index
  • #225
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:24pm Jun 27, 2011 4:24pm
Quote
I'm sorry I haven't been around posting here much, I've been preoccupied by reading up on order flow (here and elsewhere), market profile, market microstructure etc.
Have fun, enjoy the inevitable brain orgasms. They feel REALLY good.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #226
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:25pm Jun 27, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting newyear498
EUR/CHF looks good for the short
Which is why it is so highly positionned short. If things are resolved amicably, then some lovely volatility can be generated.

Quote
however I am not planing on shorting anything EUR right now due to the volatility associated with.. the EUR will probably rally even if it breaks the law of modern day science

be safe


http://www.mataf.net/en/forex-charts/c-index
When in doubt, stay out

Quoting Tact1cal
Have fun, enjoy the inevitable brain orgasms. They feel REALLY good.
LOL


Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #227
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:27pm Jun 27, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Which is why it is so highly positionned short. If things are resolved amicably, then some lovely volatility can be generated.

When in doubt, stay out

LOL


Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Oh so your only taking the shorts if plan fails? I think I misunderstood
  • #228
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:30pm Jun 27, 2011 4:30pm
@newyear
If Greece defaults everyone is going to run to the CHF. If they don't it might cause an unwinding of fearful shorts.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #229
  • Jun 28, 2011 1:28am Jun 28, 2011 1:28am
Tried to get some positions on in EUR/USD and EUR/CHF.

Ended up losing my feeder stake in EUR/USD but have a position at 1.4260 with risk taken off. Tried to establish a position in EUR/CHF, but I decided to cut it for a small profit because the pairing felt so heavy. Looks like CHF sentiment is grossly powerful, and if I am to initiate a position in EUR/CHF it will be after the votes when the positions are being unwound. Anything before that leaves me vulnerable to too much strong CHF flow.

Brings my positions to 2 x EUR/GBP and 1 x EUR/USD

Still watching and waiting.

Also switched to black profile since it makes me feel more professional.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #230
  • Jun 28, 2011 1:51am Jun 28, 2011 1:51am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Tried to get some positions on in EUR/USD and EUR/CHF.

Ended up losing my feeder stake in EUR/USD but have a position at 1.4260 with risk taken off. Tried to establish a position in EUR/CHF, but I decided to cut it for a small profit because the pairing felt so heavy. Looks like CHF sentiment is grossly powerful, and if I am to initiate a position in EUR/CHF it will be after the votes when the positions are being unwound. Anything before that leaves me vulnerable to too much strong CHF flow.

Brings my positions to 2 x EUR/GBP and 1 x EUR/USD...
The recent spike in EUR/USD was really some bullshit. Swedish retail sales way lower than expected. I was long from 4263 liquidated at 4320 and going short from there.
  • #231
  • Jun 28, 2011 2:08am Jun 28, 2011 2:08am
Quoting vicky_ag
The recent spike in EUR/USD was really some bullshit. Swedish retail sales way lower than expected. I was long from 4263 liquidated at 4320 and going short from there.
Salty bread! Nice play..I'm quite partial to your entry point myself, and liquidated half at 1.4315 These odd upward spikes are the same thing from yesterday..it would be nice if it's a consolidation for now, and it trips up to 1.4350..then I'd know that there's some definite support in the market.

No matter how much I try, I can't seem to get any positions in on EUR/GBP. Guess that's the surefire way to know you've got a good pair lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #232
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:21am Jun 28, 2011 3:21am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Salty bread! Nice play..I'm quite partial to your entry point myself, and liquidated half at 1.4315 These odd upward spikes are the same thing from yesterday..it would be nice if it's a consolidation for now, and it trips up to 1.4350..then I'd know that there's some definite support in the market.

No matter how much I try, I can't seem to get any positions in on EUR/GBP. Guess that's the surefire way to know you've got a good pair lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Though I was not entirely convinced on the upward move on E/U, I started the day going long. The decision was mainly based on retail sentiment. I got in at 63 though 55-53 gave a better opportunity.

Then we have a move which made absolutely no sense. Swedish retail sales?! Missing expectation by a mile, good for euro?! Forexlive reported sell orders near 4320, so liquidated my longs and went short.

Closed the short near 4355.
  • #233
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:36am Jun 28, 2011 3:36am
Quoting vicky_ag
Though I was not entirely convinced on the upward move on E/U, I started the day going long. The decision was mainly based on retail sentiment. I got in at 63 though 55-53 gave a better opportunity.

Then we have a move which made absolutely no sense. Swedish retail sales?! Missing expectation by a mile, good for euro?! Forexlive reported sell orders near 4320, so liquidated my longs and went short.

Closed the short near 4355.
What I gathered was it was due to those Asian Sovereigns et. al, the same kind who were seen at 1.4100 yesterday bidding the pair up. Seeing them again is what gave me the confidence to hold my long. Good play on the short. Never did try retail sentiment before

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #234
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:34am Jun 28, 2011 4:34am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Tried to get some positions on in EUR/USD and EUR/CHF.

Ended up losing my feeder stake in EUR/USD but have a position at 1.4260 with risk taken off. Tried to establish a position in EUR/CHF, but I decided to cut it for a small profit because the pairing felt so heavy. Looks like CHF sentiment is grossly powerful, and if I am to initiate a position in EUR/CHF it will be after the votes when the positions are being unwound. Anything before that leaves me vulnerable to too much strong CHF flow.

Brings my positions to 2 x EUR/GBP and 1 x EUR/USD

Still...
Hey Trizzle,

After the whole stop hunt last night that ended up going no where I changed my perception a bit and I felt confident to build a small position in EUR/CHF incase things go bad for the vote... (plus no buyers interested in buying)

I woke up today with 9% gains.. I took half off and now have the other riding.. I'm going to keep it and if thing go bad I will ride this like the whore it is

and yeah dude the black looks sexy!!!
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  • #235
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:36am Jun 28, 2011 4:36am
Quoting newyear498
Hey Trizzle,

After the whole stop hunt last night that ended up going no where I changed my perception a bit and I felt confident to build a small position in EUR/CHF incase things go bad for the vote... (plus no buyers interested in buying)

I woke up today with 9% gains.. I took half off and now have the other riding.. I'm going to keep it and if thing go bad I will ride this like the whore it is

and yeah dude the black looks sexy!!!
LOL see my order got cancel by broker to sell half OMG.. it was fate.. I should have never been up this much but oh well got lucky HAHAHAHHA
  • #236
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:47am Jun 28, 2011 4:47am
you still positionless EUR/CHF?
  • #237
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:47am Jun 28, 2011 4:47am
Quoting newyear498
Hey Trizzle,

After the whole stop hunt last night that ended up going no where I changed my perception a bit and I felt confident to build a small position in EUR/CHF incase things go bad for the vote... (plus no buyers interested in buying)
The thing has absolutely no floor! Good luck with it though, but I'll have you know I plan to smoke your stop later this week...

Quote
I woke up today with 9% gains.. I took half off and now have the other riding.. I'm going to keep it and if thing go bad I will ride this like the whore it is
Sounds good to me! I'll be joining you down to parity if things get messy

Quote
and yeah dude the black looks sexy!!!


EDIT: Yep, still positionless on EUR/CHF and won't be taking any until after the vote.

In other news, I finally got hit on another EUR/GBP! Says a lot when you're excited to have your limit filled lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #238
  • Jun 28, 2011 5:00am Jun 28, 2011 5:00am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
The thing has absolutely no floor! Good luck with it though, but I'll have you know I plan to smoke your stop later this week...

Sounds good to me! I'll be joining you down to parity if things get messy



EDIT: Yep, still positionless on EUR/CHF and won't be taking any until after the vote.

In other news, I finally got hit on another EUR/GBP! Says a lot when you're excited to have your limit filled lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
the EUR/CHF looks like it had a nice move due to strength of CHF.. and lack of EUR doing much... now if the EUR pulls back and / or bad news.. were in store for good times..

I don't see any opportunities right now.. I want all the EUR to pull back more before I'm a buyer.. everything else looking dry as well.. I'm on the side lines for a couple hours with one runner
  • #239
  • Jun 28, 2011 6:28am Jun 28, 2011 6:28am
Quoting newyear498
I don't see any opportunities right now..
Aww you mean you already forgot our acquaintance in Cable from yesterday? Not too sure about my TP though so I might consider trailing it depending on how things progress. Stop is moved to BE if worst comes to worst.

Stake in EUR/GBP is coming along quite nicely. Bringing my positions to 3 x EUR/GBP and 1 x EUR/USD. With all that EUR exposure..let's hope Greece can pull through...would like to see some account growth this month.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #240
  • Jun 28, 2011 7:12am Jun 28, 2011 7:12am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Aww you mean you already forgot our acquaintance in Cable from yesterday? Not too sure about my TP though so I might consider trailing it depending on how things progress. Stop is moved to BE if worst comes to worst.

Stake in EUR/GBP is coming along quite nicely. Bringing my positions to 3 x EUR/GBP and 1 x EUR/USD. With all that EUR exposure..let's hope Greece can pull through...would like to see some account growth this month.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Trizzle.. on first sight of good news you should still consider taking profit.. any good news regarding the vote is going to result in bearish activity more than likely / taking profit... the institutions are going to use that opportunity to take profit with extra liquidity and buyers.. at least thats my opinion.. we saw it happen last week.. and everyone on news was saying BUY BUY BUY.. I said.. ok I'll short ROFL

on the side note.. I keep waitin for the right price and end up stop hunting lol.. buying high and selling higher.. oh well quick turn around atleast..

anytime you see price start hanging around a price level it used to bounce off means a high probability break through if stops are above that level


Things just don't feel right in the market you know.. newton said "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" I'm suspicious personally




good day to you sir... I see we are both enjoying the most turbulent times in history hehehehe
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