PS @EmeraldEyes: Good call!
Dislikedand then I read this:
Large dealer, large order send EUR/USD higher
Most of today's interesting price action has come in waves, where the trading has picked up, probably reflecting efforts to fill an order and then dried up as the broader market fails to get excited about the move. The point being that the order driven activity is failing to excite the idea that the market is trending, which leaves speculators sitting on the sidelines. EUR/USD's climb, besides order driven, came in coincidence with the afternoon rally in equities where S&P futures...Ignored
Dislikedmay have been working an order that was in the EUR1-2.0 bln range.Ignored
Dislikedhahah i hear you bro. every single piece of news is being used as some form of an excuse to justify a move. makes you confused as to whether the position you took was really because of that piece of news or due to stops or just luck in a certain sense (at least thats what I thought for my positions lol).Ignored
DislikedAnother reference that a 2 bln order moves the market hundreds of pips. Just like Oanda said (200 mln on EUR/USD -> 20 pips movement).
Unlike what most forumers here believe - that you need countless billions to move it a few pips.Ignored
DislikedI'd tend to trust the 4Cast one for some reason. The moves are gonna be very extended this week due to the thinned liquidity so like you said, sentiment, context and positionning are going to be important to keep us on the right side. I don't however see any bids supporting the market since specs are playing wait-and-see. I'd like for it to dip back down to 1.4120ish so I can at least get another leg on it..turns out EUR/GBP survived lol.
DislikedThe period is ideal because it provides the algos with a unique opportunity to move a market subtly yet very much predictably — at the same time as sparking a series of trading chain reactions, which can be easily navigated and front-run in a variety of related options, ETFs and equities. Safe in the knowledge, we might add, that a sizeable order flow is coming right around the corner, but which is now just sitting on the sidelines.
DislikedBTW, for those of you watching and trading the news, be aware that there's a new breed of HFT algos which play very aggressively in the seconds before a news release:
The basic idea is to move the market in the low-liquidity environment before a news release, arbitrage related instruments and count on the return of liquidity after the release to get out in case of trouble:Ignored
Dislikeddo you guys remember that M&A flow reported on bloomberg and fxlive reported it that day as well, not that long ago... it was for 9bln euro, mostly cash but not fully, wonder what the deal with that is with that.
out of all this crap it would seem to me that ACB's were most likely the culprit at the lows... that's what I was betting on in the first place. The US investment bank came later I would assume.Ignored
Dislikeddealers and hedge funds are known to do this as well even before the new breed of HFT, that's why you trade after the release or in the run up/down before it.
btw it seems you're into HFT algo's... are you developing them?Ignored
DislikedHmmm..I was thinking that it was some US firms involved in underwriting a rights issue for some Italian Banks wanting to get the most bang for their buck since they eyed Euro appreciation within the coming weeks. There was a lot of liquidity provided by these Asian heads so I'm thinking as soon as the session opened, they wasted no time and cashed in.
The M&A deal makes a lot of sense coming from the same method of thinking..they eye Euro appreciation and so want to get filled before it appreciates too greatly. If it's anything to go by, maybe...Ignored
Dislikedthat all makes sense too, but I would go with this...
"It started, of course, with the usual Asian central bank collection of EUR/USD for reserve accumulation/ diversification. The Asian session lows were the best levels the ACBs have had to pick up Euro in over a week. Conscious of how it would make the charts look if they allowed it below the Jun 16th 1.4074 low that snatched these ones away with a "1.41" handle so it looks like we have rising lows. The weird thing is that EUR/USD feels bid to old boots but in reality it remains below Friday's...Ignored
Dislikedbtw it seems you're into HFT algo's... are you developing them?Ignored
DislikedI have friends who develop ultra-low latency HFT algos, the type of where it matters what kind of network card you have, since your strategy is to basically front-run the exchange order-flow.
I don't have the resources to work on that level yet, I work on a lower frequency - holding times measured in hours, not minutes or seconds.Ignored
DislikedThey're a sneaky bunch. Let's see how Tokyo will unfold tonight..going to have to be on our A-Game..Trust me..don't even bring up the 1.4100 play..or the 1.4130..or the most recent 1.4180 one..just couldn't read those plays. Hoping tonight is more 'orthodox'. We'll make ém pay...