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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,081
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:48am Jun 27, 2011 3:48am
Quoting Monroe
tricky...
Definitely..shifted my attention to a possible short squeeze in Cable..much easier to read and put some % in the account. You still gonna play EUR/USD if it drops below 1.4100 depending on how it looks?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

PS @EmeraldEyes: Good call!
  • #2,082
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:58am Jun 27, 2011 3:58am
I played the short squeeze to the expirey level at 4160 so now im flat, but I will see what happens if it gets down there... just have to keep my eye on the wires..., it's a little wild out there. Now it's headed to where I thought it would, right back to my original target, the open and the 4200 expirey...
  • #2,083
  • Edited 10:17am Jun 27, 2011 9:46am | Edited 10:17am
wow just got back, look at her go... can't keep a good euro down as they say.

Now they attribute the move to this:

New Greek bonds could carry European Investment Bank or ESFS guarantee
Goal is to make bonds AAA
French plan involves creating a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for bonds rolled over
French plan would mean banks then hold equity in SPV, rather than having Greek debt on balance sheets


what was interesting was this from sean lee at fxlive in early asia last night... french-government-banks-agree-on-greek-debt-proposal-press/

so does that mean we should flip it and go short into the lows from here?
  • #2,084
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:40am Jun 27, 2011 10:40am
and then I read this:

Large dealer, large order send EUR/USD higher

Most of today's interesting price action has come in waves, where the trading has picked up, probably reflecting efforts to fill an order and then dried up as the broader market fails to get excited about the move. The point being that the order driven activity is failing to excite the idea that the market is trending, which leaves speculators sitting on the sidelines. EUR/USD's climb, besides order driven, came in coincidence with the afternoon rally in equities where S&P futures touched highs of 1273, before moving into neutral. In the wake of the move that took EUR/USD to highs of 1.4290ish, dealers are crediting a US investment bank name who may have been working an order that was in the EUR1-2.0 bln range. M.B.


some say it's a middle eastern sovereign, some say it's a US investment bank dealing a large order, etc etc.

so how do the orderflow pro's deal with this, on an intraday level?

It would seem that you have to think more about overall context and positioning, and think about who might be doing what and why and not get to caught up in the bullshit and just read the PA...
  • #2,085
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:44am Jun 27, 2011 10:44am
Quoting Monroe
and then I read this:

Large dealer, large order send EUR/USD higher

Most of today's interesting price action has come in waves, where the trading has picked up, probably reflecting efforts to fill an order and then dried up as the broader market fails to get excited about the move. The point being that the order driven activity is failing to excite the idea that the market is trending, which leaves speculators sitting on the sidelines. EUR/USD's climb, besides order driven, came in coincidence with the afternoon rally in equities where S&P futures...
source?
  • #2,086
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:50am Jun 27, 2011 10:50am
Quoting vicky_ag
source?
some bullshit, seems like they're all bullshit... that was 4cast
  • #2,087
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:03am Jun 27, 2011 11:03am
Quoting Monroe
some bullshit, seems like they're all bullshit... that was 4cast
hahah i hear you bro. every single piece of news is being used as some form of an excuse to justify a move. makes you confused as to whether the position you took was really because of that piece of news or due to stops or just luck in a certain sense (at least thats what I thought for my positions lol). I usually have reuters + cnbc + cnnmoney + bloomberg all on my screen and sometimes they report different stuff for the same move.
  • #2,088
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:04am Jun 27, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Monroe
may have been working an order that was in the EUR1-2.0 bln range.
Another reference that a 2 bln order moves the market hundreds of pips. Just like Oanda said (200 mln on EUR/USD -> 20 pips movement).

Unlike what most forumers here believe - that you need countless billions to move it a few pips.
  • #2,089
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:05am Jun 27, 2011 11:05am
Quoting Monroe
some bullshit, seems like they're all bullshit... that was 4cast
I'd tend to trust the 4Cast one for some reason. The moves are gonna be very extended this week due to the thinned liquidity so like you said, sentiment, context and positionning are going to be important to keep us on the right side. I don't however see any bids supporting the market since specs are playing wait-and-see. I'd like for it to dip back down to 1.4120ish so I can at least get another leg on it..turns out EUR/GBP survived lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,090
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:11am Jun 27, 2011 11:11am
Quoting melvin87
hahah i hear you bro. every single piece of news is being used as some form of an excuse to justify a move. makes you confused as to whether the position you took was really because of that piece of news or due to stops or just luck in a certain sense (at least thats what I thought for my positions lol).
well thats why i thought the fade was the best overall play after the early move down in asia... then just watch the PA. who knows the reasoning or whats really going on, you can never know if a big order is going to come through or not, but you can make a guess as to why it wouldn't make a big break to the downside just yet and go with which rumors were holding up (such as the ACB bids on the downside)
  • #2,091
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:15am Jun 27, 2011 11:15am
Quoting Adal
Another reference that a 2 bln order moves the market hundreds of pips. Just like Oanda said (200 mln on EUR/USD -> 20 pips movement).

Unlike what most forumers here believe - that you need countless billions to move it a few pips.
true, it also depends on the liquidity at the time of course, but this is during a highly liquid time in general, but they say many specs are staying aside, so it could be more one sided flow causing extended moves like that plus short covering.

I mean, you can easily expect that this would happen IF you knew a big order was going to go through and the market was caught short on top of it.

by the way, last friday on June 24th into the open of london there was that range around 4278-4231 low... that first breakout before the Ifo release was rumored a 300mln hedge fund order.. that broke it down 20-40 pips or so going for the stops under 4225-4200 right before the Ifo.
  • #2,092
  • Edited 11:37am Jun 27, 2011 11:18am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'd tend to trust the 4Cast one for some reason. The moves are gonna be very extended this week due to the thinned liquidity so like you said, sentiment, context and positionning are going to be important to keep us on the right side. I don't however see any bids supporting the market since specs are playing wait-and-see. I'd like for it to dip back down to 1.4120ish so I can at least get another leg on it..turns out EUR/GBP survived lol.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
yea don't get me wrong, I like reading IFR, 4cast, and fxlive... they all seem good in there own ways... but in the end you have to use your head to make the cash, they all help though for sure, that's why I still read them just to stay filled in as much as possible to make my decisions.

do you guys remember that M&A flow reported on bloomberg and fxlive reported it that day as well, not that long ago... it was for 9bln euro, mostly cash but not fully, wonder what the deal with that is with that.

edit: 9-bln-ma-flow-in-the-works/


out of all this crap it would seem to me that ACB's were most likely the culprit at the lows... that's what I was betting on in the first place. The US investment bank came later I would assume.
  • #2,093
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:47am Jun 27, 2011 11:47am
BTW, for those of you watching and trading the news, be aware that there's a new breed of HFT algos which play very aggressively in the seconds before a news release:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011...-algo-trading/

The basic idea is to move the market in the low-liquidity environment before a news release, arbitrage related instruments and count on the return of liquidity after the release to get out in case of trouble:

Quote
The period is ideal because it provides the algos with a unique opportunity to move a market subtly yet very much predictably — at the same time as sparking a series of trading chain reactions, which can be easily navigated and front-run in a variety of related options, ETFs and equities. Safe in the knowledge, we might add, that a sizeable order flow is coming right around the corner, but which is now just sitting on the sidelines.
  • #2,094
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:49am Jun 27, 2011 11:49am
Quoting Adal
BTW, for those of you watching and trading the news, be aware that there's a new breed of HFT algos which play very aggressively in the seconds before a news release:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011...-algo-trading/

The basic idea is to move the market in the low-liquidity environment before a news release, arbitrage related instruments and count on the return of liquidity after the release to get out in case of trouble:

dealers and hedge funds are known to do this as well even before the new breed of HFT, that's why you trade after the release or in the run up/down before it.

btw it seems you're into HFT algo's... are you developing them?
  • #2,095
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:52am Jun 27, 2011 11:52am
Quoting Monroe
do you guys remember that M&A flow reported on bloomberg and fxlive reported it that day as well, not that long ago... it was for 9bln euro, mostly cash but not fully, wonder what the deal with that is with that.

out of all this crap it would seem to me that ACB's were most likely the culprit at the lows... that's what I was betting on in the first place. The US investment bank came later I would assume.
Hmmm..I was thinking that it was some US firms involved in underwriting a rights issue for some Italian Banks wanting to get the most bang for their buck since they eyed Euro appreciation within the coming weeks. There was a lot of liquidity provided by these Asian heads so I'm thinking as soon as the session opened, they wasted no time and cashed in.

The M&A deal makes a lot of sense coming from the same method of thinking..they eye Euro appreciation and so want to get filled before it appreciates too greatly. If it's anything to go by, maybe they have another shot loaded in the cannon to unleash? Hard as heck to time these things or know how much they're going to need up front. Simply makes the upside play that more convincing for me. I need some legs on this badboy!

Quoting Monroe
dealers and hedge funds are known to do this as well even before the new breed of HFT, that's why you trade after the release or in the run up/down before it.

btw it seems you're into HFT algo's... are you developing them?
That's where the golden pips lie!


Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,096
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:58am Jun 27, 2011 11:58am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Hmmm..I was thinking that it was some US firms involved in underwriting a rights issue for some Italian Banks wanting to get the most bang for their buck since they eyed Euro appreciation within the coming weeks. There was a lot of liquidity provided by these Asian heads so I'm thinking as soon as the session opened, they wasted no time and cashed in.

The M&A deal makes a lot of sense coming from the same method of thinking..they eye Euro appreciation and so want to get filled before it appreciates too greatly. If it's anything to go by, maybe...
that all makes sense too, but I would go with this...

"It started, of course, with the usual Asian central bank collection of EUR/USD for reserve accumulation/ diversification. The Asian session lows were the best levels the ACBs have had to pick up Euro in over a week. Conscious of how it would make the charts look if they allowed it below the Jun 16th 1.4074 low that snatched these ones away with a "1.41" handle so it looks like we have rising lows. The weird thing is that EUR/USD feels bid to old boots but in reality it remains below Friday's 1.4307 peak and is in fact just range trading"

add to that the fench banks coming up with the greek plan for debt (short covering on that) plus the US firms later on... you got yourself is rally and a half...

imagine you stuck with that 4100 play... and I didn't puss out at 4160... but what happened here is hard to predict, seems like the exception more then the rule, which is where most the money is made I guess... I just found it simply hard to believe it break out of this longer term triangle consolidation on a sunday asia session ahead of whats going on later in the week... with ACB bids still at the lows.
  • #2,097
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:05pm Jun 27, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting Monroe
that all makes sense too, but I would go with this...

"It started, of course, with the usual Asian central bank collection of EUR/USD for reserve accumulation/ diversification. The Asian session lows were the best levels the ACBs have had to pick up Euro in over a week. Conscious of how it would make the charts look if they allowed it below the Jun 16th 1.4074 low that snatched these ones away with a "1.41" handle so it looks like we have rising lows. The weird thing is that EUR/USD feels bid to old boots but in reality it remains below Friday's...
They're a sneaky bunch. Let's see how Tokyo will unfold tonight..going to have to be on our A-Game..Trust me..don't even bring up the 1.4100 play..or the 1.4130..or the most recent 1.4180 one..just couldn't read those plays. Hoping tonight is more 'orthodox'. We'll make ém pay...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,098
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:05pm Jun 27, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting Monroe
btw it seems you're into HFT algo's... are you developing them?
I have friends who develop ultra-low latency HFT algos, the type of where it matters what kind of network card you have, since your strategy is to basically front-run the exchange order-flow.

I don't have the resources to work on that level yet, I work on a lower frequency - holding times measured in hours, not minutes or seconds.
  • #2,099
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:15pm Jun 27, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Adal
I have friends who develop ultra-low latency HFT algos, the type of where it matters what kind of network card you have, since your strategy is to basically front-run the exchange order-flow.

I don't have the resources to work on that level yet, I work on a lower frequency - holding times measured in hours, not minutes or seconds.
cool, I know someone that was working on that as well... it's very costly to work on that level of play. Only the big dogs can put up that kind of cash for what you need.
  • #2,100
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:17pm Jun 27, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
They're a sneaky bunch. Let's see how Tokyo will unfold tonight..going to have to be on our A-Game..Trust me..don't even bring up the 1.4100 play..or the 1.4130..or the most recent 1.4180 one..just couldn't read those plays. Hoping tonight is more 'orthodox'. We'll make ém pay...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
lol you'll get em' next time... good luck out there
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