Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator
Fair enough. I am actually using 'mushy' indicators myself. I've set my M30/H1 trend indicators up in a way that leaves a lot to interpretation so that I don't get the false security offered by simple mathematical formulas (a'la only short when price<200dma). The downside is that it takes considerable experience to interpret the indicators, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. I combine the indicators with supply and demand areas and simple trendlines. It doesn't always work but I've become used to them. I was a very big skeptic of trendlines...
I don't know whether I 'developed the eyes' in the interim, but my trendlines seem to be holding far better than they did a year ago so I've decided to keep 'em. Alright, enough about me and my 'techies'. If anything I said here piques your interest let me know and I'll make sure to post a chart example.
That shouldn't happen. You need to contact your broker, maybe they have a solution. High impact news events are usually characterized by lower liquidity visible through increased spreads and slippage, but freezing...??
I mean you hear the stories but never think it could wind up happening to you..On gold
That hedge fund manager you referred to was probably Henry Paulson. He suffered a huge $750 million loss on Sino Forest recently (from what I've read it was basically a ponzi scheme). He is very well known for his bet on the housing crash and his accumulation of gold and gold shares in recent years. Why would he want to liquidate his gold? Well, there are two possible answers to that: one is that he sold his gold to make up for the losses (I'm told fund managers often do that) and the other is some clients got nervous and decided...
News UPDATED
1. We have a date on stress tests. Finally! It's July 13th LINK
2. Potentially worrisome news from Europe. WSJ: Euro-Zone PMIs Raise Specter of Sharp Slowdown
3. IEA decided to release 60 million barrels of oil from reserves to make up for Libyan lost supply. One the one hand this news should dampen...
The over -extended market short from yesterday now showing their hands. Thankfully, we have BoE's King on our side, according to him Greece exposure is bad and bad.
The platform freeze problem? Well Oanda has it days. I was out on lunch so missed it.
Didn't know OANDA's days could be so bad!
Doesn't help that they expected a weak German Ifo number on top of that now did it?
Speaking of lunch, I took a trade on the possibly most boring pair in the game, USD/JPY. I'd be surprised if it moves to my TP target, but I'm looking to speculate on some options-movement ahead of the New York Cut. I'll be quite glad if it makes it even half way there! Only problem is XAU/USD margin-wise is a really PITA, so I'm wondering how I'm going to plan this...
Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
IMO Those were the Chinese!!!
The news about China stepping in to support IMF with Greece situation was a ticking time bomb. If you really check it out, there was nothing substanial in IFO data to actually backup that huge rise. Simple stop hunt/short squeeze (in IMO at least).
Once, that was done bye-bye Ifo data and welcome BoE's King negativity on Greece. Simply plugging the liqudity gap.
Added another short from 4280. I was hoping a a bigger jump but that dint come. 4300 was a better entry but that damn over extended lunch.
So total 3 shorts on E/U. All on b/e.
Looks like you've developed those eyes well then. Good to see you had the resolve to stick with them for the course of a whole year - I know many other traders who flit from system to system.
Let me clarify that a little bit. During the whole year, I did not draw one trendline (I dumped them because they didn't work for me). It was only after I began testing trendlines again about a month ago that I discovered I had developed the eyes for it. I guess my research and experience in other fields of technical analysis helped me reach that point, because I have no other explanation for that. OR it could've been aliens planting a microchip in my forehead. Can't know for sure, can you?
Don't know who it was, but I agree with you on the latter part.
Throw in jitters about Italian bank shares being suspended and you have the floor pulled from underneath the recent upmove. No time for bids to fill in to support it.
Tight work. But be wary of the Asian Sovereigns today...may want to use them as short-term targets at the lows if you're so inclined. I'm actually quite jealous. I would love to play but I'm stuck with USD/JPY...
That "it was the Chinese" was a figurative speech.
Well I was wary of the range near 4124 yesterday. Decided not to close my two shorts. If it does retrace to my b/e point, I will stand to make 3% off it so no worries.[/qutote]Ah so you're a holder!
Btw, what amount of margin have u used on UJ ?
Hope it's doing your shorts justice!
Ah so you're a holder!
A sizeable portion of my account..bout 2/3rds? But it has recently surged up! Don't know what that's about!?
Well, am not exactly a holder (at least not on my daily trades).This an experiment of sorts.
That 3% dint come out right.
Actually 3 shorts - 4365, 4310 and 4280. For all of them stops are on 4280 (last on on b/e). With 20 pips - standard 1% risk, I think it is 3-4% gain even at 4280.
2/3rds! I hope you make it up. Seems kinda risky to me.
It was because the stops on that trade were relatively small. Didn't have enough margin to act on the most recent developments, but I will be paying close attention to it.
There's coin to be made in the next two weeks.
In essence, I'm seeing a very profitable trade within the coming month, since the market's attention is diverted between two different scenarios. I posit that there is always money to be made in these kinds of situations when one scenario runs its course, and the market suddenly 'remembers' the other. Timing will be a large factor in determining the success of this next trade.
Game plan for next week is to establish some medium term EUR/USD legs near 1.4100 if possible. I'm anticipating a positive outcome regarding the parliamentary vote, and so I'm looking for the market to begin pricing this in, against the prevailing bearish sentiment, targetting weak shorts as it goes. I'm also going to be initiating some longer term EUR/GBP legs as well, should my orders be filled.
I'd like to get a small position in on XAU/USD, but it depends on how my margin goes, to determine whether or not I'll be able to initiate a position....
Sooo.. yeah you seem to be way ahead of me.. After doing some fundy stuff I feel this week is bullish for the Eur/Usd
however I'm impressed to see all the insights you have.. trying to get this shit down still
I also expect however that good OR bad result of parliamentary vote will still lead to reversal.. I think sentiment will show leading up to the event but the vote itself will not produce additional demand
Heya newyear498,
Good to see you around these parts! It`s never too late to join in on the fun! Not too sure about the vote producing additional demand, but I get the feeling that the market wanting to price in an interest rate hike soon after will, so I`ll be looking to establish a low-risk long after the news - if it`s positive.
Among new developments are that there are a couple more deputies from PASOK wavering, and it`s left me unable to read the play around 1.4130, so I`m out at more or less BE, until I can get a clearer...
Ah I get you now! Tight work nonetheless!
jk - It happens, I still have 4365 open. Ended up making it up indeed, but like you, my 2/3 figure didn't come out right! My risk per trade on that one was 4%, but it used 2/3 of the margin in my account for me to establish it is what I mean to say.
In other news, it looks like it wasn't such a wise decision to exit that Gold Short earlier huh?
I think if you want to play it real safe the yen looks positive these next two weeks
I think your still too longterm compared to me tho.. I'm just keeping a few things in mind on my intraday moves.. or if I see a price thats a steal I might try a swing position with minimal risk
Thanks for helping me out with the fundamentals!!!
Thanks. I wasn't comfortable with keeping the positions open over the weekend. Closed the 4310 and 4280 ones are 4180 on Friday. Now regretting it. jk - It happens, I still have 4365 open.
But doesn't Oanda increase the leverage to 100:1 once the trades are open? I always thought it does, never re-checked it though.
I normally use 20 pips as a stop. If I go anywhere near 5% risk, I will be betting half the house. So normally I risk only 1%.
Spot Gold is quite interesting. Especially given the fact many brokers are closing down retail US clients based on Dodd- Frank. This is causing a liquidation of many retail positions.
