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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,981
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:28am Jun 24, 2011 3:28am
Quoting Evak
update:
The shorterm Inventory adjustment see price pullback to 4200. Market completely moving value higher away from NY & auction back up to yesterdays Asia/UK Value area with current Asia/UK fair value now just below yesterday Asia/UK value area. Did anyone miss the pullback low?

Since Inventory is mostly short now, If market still in wholesale mode, at current level, we should see NY open above fair value of the Asia/UK session, opening test on it & perhaps head north to to test yesterdays high. (Asia/UK profile can be considered an...

Please someone should kindly consider my request, i want to see those indicators on my chart, i have tried the recommended indicators and its not showing( i use FXpro), please please i need a way out, any help will be appreciated. Thanks
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,982
  • Jun 24, 2011 7:55am Jun 24, 2011 7:55am
Quoting lordgbengs
Please someone should kindly consider my request, i want to see those indicators on my chart, i have tried the recommended indicators and its not showing( i use FXpro), please please i need a way out, any help will be appreciated. Thanks
Try this mate.

http://eyesfx.web44.net/dload/

I think you also need to dig what bandung post, especially his recent comments about his indicator.
  • #2,983
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:39am Jun 24, 2011 8:39am
Quoting alexm
Try this mate.

http://eyesfx.web44.net/dload/

I think you also need to dig what bandung post, especially his recent comments about his indicator.

Hi Alexm,

I am delighted by your direction and am very grateful, thank you so much.I have it uploaded and working ,thanks
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,984
  • Jun 25, 2011 3:18am Jun 25, 2011 3:18am
On jd's blog he used the dollar index to gauge the strength of the s&p direction, for euro/usd is also correlated with the s&p, I wonder how many of us read his blog post, I feel like to learn his thinking pattern of analyzing the market is the most valuable experience that I will never forget.

If u r new to fx market, never subscribe to those crap from Rob Booker n LFB, or Mickey Mouse fx signal.

Because to unlearn those rubbish is simply painful.
  • #2,985
  • Jun 25, 2011 5:28am Jun 25, 2011 5:28am
Quoting alexm
On jd's blog he used the dollar index to gauge the strength of the s&p direction, for euro/usd is also correlated with the s&p, ...
So why don't directly correlate EUR and DX? DX contains 60% of EUR...I think that EUR and SP are not 100% correlated...I might be wrong...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,986
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:30am Jun 25, 2011 6:30am
Quoting alexm
On jd's blog he used the dollar index to gauge the strength of the s&p direction, for euro/usd is also correlated with the s&p, I wonder how many of us read his blog post, I feel like to learn his thinking pattern of analyzing the market is the most valuable experience that I will never forget.

If u r new to fx market, never subscribe to those crap from Rob Booker n LFB, or Mickey Mouse fx signal.

Because to unlearn those rubbish is simply painful.
The way I read his blogs, he's not using the dollar index to gauge the s&p. It sounds more like he's saying that when there is correlation between the dollar and s&p that means the s&p is not acting on its own and can be dangerous/volatile to trade.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,987
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:49am Jun 25, 2011 6:49am
I recently asked a question about market profile and I was directed here by Intel. Initially I didn't want to disturb your thread, but here I am now. Could you please take a look at this question for me?
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #2,988
  • Jun 25, 2011 7:22am Jun 25, 2011 7:22am
Quoting bug
I recently asked a question about market profile and I was directed here by Intel. Initially I didn't want to disturb your thread, but here I am now. Could you please take a look at this question for me?
No disturbing here as long as you are posting to learn!

Using the structure to trade is more than just applying the POC. POC is a good area to use as reference points for supply/demand, but so are the value area high's and low's which must first be penetrated before reaching a POC. It looks like you are using MT4, which makes it difficult to see exact daily POC's back in time (doing so with the indicators available will suck a lot of processing from your computer and MT4 will become very slow), so what I do is refer to longer term profiles. Attached are the monthly on the left and weekly on the right, which give you an idea of where to expect longer term supply/demand. Note that you can also identify these areas roughly through bar charts and looking for previous bracket areas/ranges.

Based on the above, if 4070 breaks and is accepted, I would expect the next long term demand levels to be near 1.4, 1.3950, and 1.38

Hope that helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 2011-06-25 at 10.13.01 AM.png Size: 321 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,989
  • Jun 25, 2011 8:03am Jun 25, 2011 8:03am
Kave, Claudia, alex, mima et al. here are my thoughts of the end of this week. Input appreciated. left chart is daily profile, right is session profiles.

In short i'm seing weakness with no follow thru, time for a short covering rally and watch to see if we get new buying with that?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 2011-06-25 at 10.51.00 AM.png Size: 319 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,990
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:37pm Jun 25, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Using the structure to trade is more than just applying the POC. POC is a good area to use as reference points for supply/demand, but so are the value area high's and low's which must first be penetrated before reaching a POC.
Yes, you are right. I am so fresh to this new way of looking at the market that I initially focused only on the very obvious (POCs, that is). I've done some reading in the interim and I realize that it's much more than just that. Very interesting, I have to say.

Quote
It looks like you are using MT4, which makes it difficult to see exact daily POC's back in time (doing so with the indicators available will suck a lot of processing from your computer and MT4 will become very slow), so what I do is refer to longer term profiles.
Thanks for the advice, will do. However, I don't want to abandon MT4 completely - I haven't run into my CPU limit and I feel very much at home with the program.

Quote
Based on the above, if 4070 breaks and is accepted, I would expect the next long term demand levels to be near 1.4, 1.3950, and 1.38
I see. This bring up another question - what would you do when the previous profile dated back a year or ever more? Would you scroll back in time, look at monthly profiles or approach the area as if it was completely new territory (record high/record low)? These are all newbie questions and I get that, but the reading I've been doing hasn't touched on these issues.

Quote
Hope that helps.
It did. Thank you.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #2,991
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:28pm Jun 25, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Kave, Claudia, alex, mima et al. here are my thoughts of the end of this week. Input appreciated. left chart is daily profile, right is session profiles.

In short i'm seing weakness with no follow thru, time for a short covering rally and watch to see if we get new buying with that?
I think that perception of value is not changed yet...On YMP price is going forward ....to 1.3732 or so( ...which is 1stSD). On DMP there is responsive buying but 1st SD at 1.4204 might hold it...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,992
  • Jun 25, 2011 7:27pm Jun 25, 2011 7:27pm
Quoting bug
Thanks for the advice, will do. However, I don't want to abandon MT4 completely - I haven't run into my CPU limit and I feel very much at home with the program.


I see. This bring up another question - what would you do when the previous profile dated back a year or ever more? Would you scroll back in time, look at monthly profiles or approach the area as if it was completely new territory (record high/record low)? These are all newbie questions and I get that, but the reading I've been doing hasn't touched on these issues.


It did. Thank...
I'm not saying abandon MT$, that's what I use. But get a MP indicator that can show you monthly or longer profiles, it helps for those long term levels.

If a price level has been reached before, then certainly use the previously established value and POC levels, I would not treat it as new territory. For completely new price level, that's a good question, hasn't happened to me yet.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,993
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:36am Jun 26, 2011 1:36am
Quoting mima
I think that perception of value is not changed yet...
Well, China has visited EZ and UK this weekend...For some reason I am sure this visit will be reflected on EUR...How much and on which way I have no clue...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,994
  • Jun 26, 2011 3:25am Jun 26, 2011 3:25am
Quoting tgwhbb
I'm not saying abandon MT$, that's what I use. But get a MP indicator that can show you monthly or longer profiles, it helps for those long term levels.
Done.
Quote
If a price level has been reached before, then certainly use the previously established value and POC levels, I would not treat it as new territory. For completely new price level, that's a good question, hasn't happened to me yet.
Yes, but which value areas would you use? The weekly or even the monthly one would tell you the new high/low is unfair value. If you drill down to the intraday value areas by scrolling back in time you would see something different. That's why I'm curious as to how one would approach the level. Maybe my wording wasn't too good when I first posted the question, but I hope you understand what I mean now.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #2,995
  • Jun 26, 2011 4:19am Jun 26, 2011 4:19am
Here's a look at what I see via MT4 (monthly profiles). The profiles are probably much more pronounced and accurate on charting programs that are designed for it and for markets for which there is sufficient volume data (currency futures), but I think what MT4 allows me to do is better than nothing at all. I realize that if I wanted to do AMT/MP full-time I would have to switch software, but it's too early for me (still learning the basics).

EDIT.
And here's what I see zoomed in to H4 using the monthly profiles. I've identified some levels which I've added comments to. I'd be interested to hear what you think of it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly2.gif Size: 42 KB
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #2,996
  • Jun 26, 2011 3:32pm Jun 26, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting mima
I think that perception of value is not changed yet...On YMP price is going forward ....to 1.3732 or so( ...which is 1stSD). On DMP there is responsive buying but 1st SD at 1.4204 might hold it...
so far so good...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,997
  • Jun 27, 2011 1:16am Jun 27, 2011 1:16am
Quoting tgwhbb
Kave, Claudia, alex, mima et al. here are my thoughts of the end of this week. Input appreciated. left chart is daily profile, right is session profiles.

In short i'm seing weakness with no follow thru, time for a short covering rally and watch to see if we get new buying with that?
I think eur/usd might trade in a bracket 4700 to 3967, the problem is when the picture is clear all opportunity will be gone, and we will end up be the laggard.

My approach now is to look at each session profile separately, If I see overlapping on session or daily profile I will anticipate for a reversal, if I see P profile without further buying I will anticipate to sell the break of the boobs. Opposite for b profile.

But I remain flexible to go the break if volume support it, or fade it if volume is weak.
  • #2,998
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:15am Jun 27, 2011 8:15am
Have a look at the daily chart and check the volume, it is one whole freaking week of volume combine all together, lets see is it going to sustain?

Also consider who has enter the market.
  • #2,999
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:46pm Jun 27, 2011 4:46pm
Well, volume was lower then on Friday ...range wider...such background might not bring EU too high....well, never knows what market can do....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,000
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:55pm Jun 27, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting alexm
Have a look at the daily chart and check the volume, it is one whole freaking week of volume combine all together, lets see is it going to sustain?

Also consider who has enter the market.
Alex, my daily volume looks normal on my broker. Can you post what you are seeing?

Weekly IB currently at 226 pips, like last week a wide range, indicative that the week should not extend much past the extremes, but if it does and gains acceptance, that signifies other TF participants initiating the move. Today's session profiles look like in dire need of repair... with plenty of anomalies all over the place and POC down at 4125. Note price stopped at 4330 during Asia and that level is the monthly POC, curious time to be testing it...
Change is the only constant
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