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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #97,301
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:19am Jun 25, 2011 11:19am
you need those big winners otherwise you gonna be stuck in break even or slightly loosing at best.

The market can go much further then you ever think.
  • #97,302
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:24am Jun 25, 2011 11:24am
Quoting Adilius07
In July it will be 1 year as I am on this forum, and I registered on Forum to post here only. Because this is the only place I believe will work for ME, not saying others are bad, just don't really fit my personally I guess. I love J16 method, period.

I have grown a lot as a trader I know that and I greatly appreciate the help that Seniors did for me, especially Mike, thank you very much!

However, I have one problem. Is my equity curve! It keeps on goin down see. Month after month. There is something that won't let me make the step further,...

I was “trying” to make money trading for 2.5 years without any success. Different methods taught by different people and still had no luck at all. But after a while I just started to believe that my problem is not the fact that I don’t understand the market but that I misunderstand the job of a trader.
At this point I knew honest and good traders and one of them told me to take time off and stop trading which I didn’t do right away but after little more time my frustration level reached a point where I thought that may be this is it for me. I quit and 2 month didn’t want to see a chart. Then, one day I saw a youtube presentation by a person who was teaching people to save money and explaining to them how compounding interest builds accounts over long period of time. I was away from trading for about 5 month. I just couldn’t get trading out of my mind no matter how much I tried. I realized being away from the charts that I know trading as well as any teacher(in my own way) and that problem for me was that I followed others and never trusted myself.

My method and chart setups a very similar to this thread and my approach to psychology is very similar. But I completely trust myself and only listen to myself when it comes to trading. I think everyone has to find their own way in this occupation and psychology or mental aspect is by far the hardest.
  • #97,303
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:29am Jun 25, 2011 11:29am
Quoting Razorman
you need those big winners otherwise you gonna be stuck in break even or slightly loosing at best.
I was thinking about this too, and backtested it too.
Just like I said in my journal I am keeping it all in excel (but really loosing the enthusiam with this as I now think that the 2R target is NOT enough, not pays off for growing number of losses)

Ok, I will try to explain. If I just use some big target somewhere in the future disregarding WIPG, FTA, S/R I really need it to be BIG.
Becuase that is like just HOPING that I will get LUCKY and Price will hit my target on some setups. And it is true sometimes those BUOBS and PB's could really start a new trend.

So I was testing with 10R (TEN).
And it looks good

It was like this: 2 lots, 1 lot is out at 1R which makes 2nd lot free trade and that second lot is hold for 10R (makes it 5.5R if target is hit).

Looks really good. But you know what, when I do my backtest using WIPG like it is taught here I get much much better results, but those results would not materialize in live trading. I guess those backtests that I do are meaningless with a discretionary method like this. So I have to jump in and try live...
  • #97,304
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:32am Jun 25, 2011 11:32am
you have to be willing to take losses. What you are trying to do is avoid them. and by doing that you are killing any chance of catching the winners.

By trying to move your stop you are trying to control the situation. You are NOT in control!

If you want some real market wisdom read past post by a member called Ryandmcd.

He used to post here on this thread and on the forum but he stopped.

Read all his posts and you might get a different perspective on trading.
  • #97,305
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:44am Jun 25, 2011 11:44am
Quoting Razorman
you have to be willing to take losses. What you are trying to do is avoid them. and by doing that you are killing any chance of catching the winners.

By trying to move your stop you are trying to control the situation. You are NOT in control!

If you want some real market wisdom read past post by a member called Ryandmcd.

He used to post here on this thread and on the forum but he stopped.

Read all his posts and you might get a different perspective on trading.
Cool, thanks, the name looks familiar but can't remember really who is he, so I will read him for sure. Thanks!
  • #97,306
  • Edited 12:07pm Jun 25, 2011 11:57am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting Pinbar
WO HEN HOU.
What was the project Bemac..
nice Steve & Bemac.

Quoting geniusztc
"WO HEN HAO. "

im sure u would agree that Chinese is very difficult to 'spell' (using the alphabet). we all will have different spellings of the same word/s.
(i can actually 'spell' it as [this is how i'd actually 'spell' it if i were back in high school] ---- wo han haw)
sie sie ni/she she ni, ZTC (thank you, ZTC)

Quoting Adilius07
...
Looks really good. But you know what, when I do my backtest using WIPG like it is taught here I get much much better results, but those results would not materialize in live trading. I guess those backtests that I do are meaningless with a discretionary method like this. So I have to jump in and try live...
of course, it would be a bit/more different.
live trading has 'live' psychology / 'live' emotions involved.

[ this is the crucial part: ]
if u can do well in demo/backtest AND (more or less) do the same/translate/replicate that performance into live trading, then everything changes (for the better).
  • #97,307
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:59am Jun 25, 2011 11:59am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi KR, yeah I think I tried them all. Seems that nothing works though...(to make a positive change in my bottom line)
Thanks for the good ecouraging words!
Do you only buy or sell the strongest or weakest markets? There is always a pair trending at some point during the strongest market hours. Do you buy a currency if it is "up" on the week or day? These aren't rules which are set in stone, but I promise you, they do help.

Do you move your stop loss up to break even and then break even plus quick enough?

Do you trade the higher timeframes? I only trade one hour for specific trades. One hour, daily, weekly and monthly are universal. I am always looking for that perfect risk trade (when I bet with significant risk), although this last week I was just plain greedy (and arrogant I might add).

Do you keep it simple? I would suggest this should apply to some of the charts I have seen on this forum. No disrespect intended.

You see, to me, a loss is a loss. I cannot claim to be in other peoples' leagues with 90% win rates (said with humility), but I don't do too badly either. I see the markets as a stream of money, a current which needs to be tapped. Sometimes, the current goes against me, yet most times I "tap" into said current and go with the flow (until I meet a tiger shark or a "blue fish" or two). You can concentrate too much on thaT perfect trade (imho); always seeing reasons not to take it, but if you have a simple trade plan and it "fits", then ask yourself: why shouldn't I take this trade? As I mentioned before (and I have a lot more time today to concentrate on this thread today - thanks sc (and others) for their useful links), I think Pinbar's video presentation was excellent (and with his money management/moving stop loss too). I, personally, would have traded that second pin bar too, with a tight stop loss, but then my utilty is different to others.

When I first started trading, I used to think I would put in a trade and it would take off and go on forever. Yearly trades often do, but I forgot to take profit or move my stop loss up to breakeven plus quick enough. I didn't "average winners" and I bet with too much risk. There are so many clever people out there (I used to know a few of them when I was in the City - I used to know a lot of idiots also) who called the market right, but could not trade. For example, at the bottom of the stock market crash, (March 2009, actually this was the panic - the real bottom was formed in October 2008 - s&p should go back to 1500 - retracement of at least 100% in this secular bear market), many of my buddies "called" the bottom, but sold out of commodities too quickly. Fed up with frequent higher highs and lower lows, common when the market is making a bottom, they sold out. They got impatient. When you know when to enter a trade, it really is "just time" sometimes. I fear I am going on for too long (as usual) so apologies.

In short, as we all know, trading is a probability game. The markets are irrational. There is no "linear" formula to them. You want to increase your probability as high as possible, but with balance. If you don't have a massive account, then it will take forever to grow your account only taking 1 or 2 trades a month. It is all one's utility.

Edge plus utility = profitability.

KR
p.s. these are just my personal thoughts.
  • #97,308
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:15pm Jun 25, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Knight Rider
Do you only buy or sell the strongest or weakest markets? There is always a pair trending at some point during the strongest market hours. Do you buy a currency if it is "up" on the week or day? These aren't rules which are set in stone, but I promise you, they do help.

Do you move your stop loss up to break even and then break even plus quick enough?

Do you trade the higher timeframes? I only trade one hour for specific trades. One hour, daily, weekly and monthly are universal. I am always looking for that perfect risk trade (when I bet with...
Thanks KR for your post. I agree with everything you say. It is right, sounds logical and I did most things you mention.

However, the bottom line is this: Equity Curve WILL go down. Please try it for yourself, use "quick to BE" whatever time frame approach for a few months and you will see what I mean.

The problem is FULL BAR loss, they will happen even if you cut risk, move to BE etc. And those hurt. And hurt month after month...
  • #97,309
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:22pm Jun 25, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting Knight Rider
You see, to me, a loss is a loss. I cannot claim to be in other peoples' leagues with 90% win rates (said with humility), but I don't do too badly either.
No need for humility. As one Senior here said "If price hit my target 90% of the time, I'd have more dollars than Scrooge McDuck and Warren Buffett combined."

Those are strong words and made me think... Do you think it's possible to hit 90 out of 100 consistently? (of course if it's not 1 pip against 100 SL)
  • #97,310
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:28pm Jun 25, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting Adilius07
Thanks KR for your post. I agree with everything you say. It is right, sounds logical and I did most things you mention.

However, the bottom line is this: Equity Curve WILL go down. Please try it for yourself, use "quick to BE" whatever time frame approach for a few months and you will see what I mean.

The problem is FULL BAR loss, they will happen even if you cut risk, move to BE etc. And those hurt. And hurt month after month...
The best trades are those which don't retrace much AFTER you have executed them. Why would I take a "full bar" loss? I'm not against taking losses, I would just rather cut them as soon as possible.

Options expiry on Monday for all you gold bugs. (A.Maguire)
  • #97,311
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:32pm Jun 25, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting Adilius07
No need for humility. As one Senior here said "If price hit my target 90% of the time, I'd have more dollars than Scrooge McDuck and Warren Buffett combined."

Those are strong words and made me think... Do you think it's possible to hit 90 out of 100 consistently? (of course if it's not 1 pip against 100 SL)
Yeah, TRT tested this theory if I remember correctly.

I couldn't do it!
  • #97,312
  • Edited 12:47pm Jun 25, 2011 12:36pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Knight Rider
The best trades are those which don't retrace much AFTER you have executed them. Why would I take a "full bar" loss? I'm not against taking losses, I would just rather cut them as soon as possible.

Options expiry on Monday for all you gold bugs. (A.Maguire)
With all due respect.
That happens VERY RARE.

Most of the time they WILL retrace, now if you cut your losses quick that means you will practically do J16 vice versa. I.e. A LOT of small losses, or steady equity fall in hope to get the one that will not retrace (i.e. full bar WIN this time) - sound like vice versa to J16.

See R/R according to J16 doesn't matter, so you have to cut your WINS, not losses (to realize profit or BE at worst)...

EDIT: But I agree those are truely the best trades!
EDIT2: Here is my favorite chart for reference. See if you cut losses quick there would be just 1 profitable trade and would it pay for the losses? not sure depends on your RR.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1302181243
  • #97,313
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:49pm Jun 25, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting Adilius07
With all due respect.
That happens VERY RARE.

Most of the time they WILL retrace, now if you cut your losses quick that means you will practically do J16 vice versa. I.e. A LOT of small losses, or steady equity fall in hope to get the one that will not retrace (i.e. full bar WIN this time) - sound like vice versa to J16.

See R/R according to J16 doesn't matter, so you have to cut your WINS, not losses (to realize profit or BE at worst)...

EDIT: But I agree those are truely the best trades!
That's why I said when you "execute" the trade.

Take Jim's example a few post's back. He let the trade retrace before executing the sell order, didn't he.

Now, I certainly do not claim to know everything about J16 and his price action which is why I am putting in the study today, but I did suggest that some of these set ups were short term trades. I play long term, medium term AND the short term.

I normally play a number of break out set ups, but this site interests me (for many reasons), which is why I am here.

You guys obviously know more about some of these particular set ups than me, so I bow to your knowledge, however, there will come a day when the "student" becomes the "master".

Thanks Adilius.

Kung Fu Panda - the holy grail is within yourself! Your utilty.

lol
  • #97,314
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:57pm Jun 25, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting Knight Rider
That's why I said when you "execute" the trade.

Take Jim's example a few post's back. He let the trade retrace before executing the sell order, didn't he.
That is also entering BEFORE the break of the bar, only the break of the bar validates the setup (for us students).

If one waits for the break then retrace and only then enters - that is not "the best" setup then (because it did retrace!!!).

Ok, thanks KR to you too!!
Only by dialogue we can learn something new.

  • #97,315
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:59pm Jun 25, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting Adilius07
With all due respect.
That happens VERY RARE.

Most of the time they WILL retrace, now if you cut your losses quick that means you will practically do J16 vice versa. I.e. A LOT of small losses, or steady equity fall in hope to get the one that will not retrace (i.e. full bar WIN this time) - sound like vice versa to J16.

See R/R according to J16 doesn't matter, so you have to cut your WINS, not losses (to realize profit or BE at worst)...

EDIT: But I agree those are truely the best trades!
EDIT2: Here is my favorite chart for reference....
You're probably right, although it looks like a "washing machine" to me.

I normally play break out trades (did I mention this before) but as the saying goes "you are never too old to learn new tricks".

I try never to stop learning and I hope to learn from you Adilius - the art of perseverence and of patience. Only joking. Just my sense of humour.

I think you have the ability to be an excellent trader. For starters: you are bold enough to post and ask questions (I don't have all the answers - just trying to be helpful), unlike some of the other people here who may go through life just watching and not doing or searching for the truth.

I'm talking to you "lurkers". Contribute and win. This is a good thread. If they can put up with me, it can't be bad, can it?

I'm going back to my study.

peace.
  • #97,316
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:05pm Jun 25, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting Adilius07
That is also entering BEFORE the break of the bar, only the break of the bar validates the setup (for us students).

If one waits for the break then retrace and only then enters - that is not "the best" setup then (because it did retrace!!!).

Ok, thanks KR to you too!!
Only by dialogue we can learn something new.

Okay, just very quickly and just for clarity. The trades I take are normally breakout trades and I don't like them retracing.

Some of Jim's trades are different, which is one of the reasons I am here. I would execute some of these trades AFTER they have retraced to resistance, using the same set up. My stop loss would not be far behind after this occurred. This is why I mentioned about SC earlier. These retracements points are significant. This is the "gist" I think Jim (and others - e.g. Mike) were alluding to, but then I'm no expert.

I am going to go back to my study on the very wise words of SC.

Best,
KR
  • #97,317
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:06pm Jun 25, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Knight Rider
Okay, just very quickly and just for clarity. The trades I take are normally breakout trades and I don't like them retracing.

Some of Jim's trades are different, which is one of the reasons I am here. I would execute some of these trades AFTER they have retraced to resistance, using the same set up. My stop loss would not be far behind after this occurred. This is why I mentioned about SC earlier. These retracements points are significant. This is the "gist" I think Jim (and others - e.g. Mike) were alluding to, but then I'm no expert.

I am...
Cool.

What do you study?
  • #97,318
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:19pm Jun 25, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting 5.25
Hey Jon,

Can I ask, what was your sell trade on the gbpusd pair around the 0.61760 mark?

I've been studying this pair and 1 or 2 others on the lower time frames and saw a nice looking PB with a classic "price breaks through and closes below", pull back and continuation scenario. Only this was based on trend lines not S/R levels. (I did not trade this). Was this your entry plan?

This is something new I've begun looking into.

Thanks, Tomek


hey Tomek, i was just trading the daily TL break i mentioned in an earlier post. i didnt want to trade into the 1.6200 RN. it was a crappy trade and i got lucky. it is not a trade i took on my live account.
I dont think the retest of that 1H TL is as you posted, imho it was a retracement to previous horizontal res. if we dont curve fit the TL the pin bar didnt come close. ( i am strict about how i plot TLs )
But yes this is a good plan to back test. i trade these setups and get good results but you have to be carefull, especially on low TFs. it has to be an obvious TL and a decent bar going with the story.
hope this helps


jon
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 1.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 2.gif Size: 31 KB
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #97,319
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:39pm Jun 25, 2011 2:39pm
Hey Adi, from lookin through your journal i think im on RMs side here. for e.g. close 1 lot and let the other run to 10:1rr to make an rr of 5:1?? do you want to be in the trade or not?? if you are willing to let half run till 10:1 why not all the possition? if you dont think the trade is good why let anything run?? will the market let you run to 10:1 rr without good MM in place in the first place or without price turning at those big PPZs??
im just throwing this in the mix not giving a view. imho each trade is unique and so will have to be dealt with as such so hanging on "hopeing" for a runner just seems to be cop out on making decisions?? cutting the trade before it has ran its natural course (according to the chart) is fear.
it takes a lot of time to transfer what you can do on demo to a live account, i know im still struggling with it myself, but i think the key lies in psycology not MM or A+ setups. i cant even imagine the way your mind must mess wid you trading a massive account!!

EDIT: i know people let some run (me included sometimes) but im worried that many times it is for the wrong reasons???

jus my view
happy hunting bro

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #97,320
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:43pm Jun 25, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
Hey Adi, from lookin through your journal i think im on RMs side here. for e.g. close 1 lot and let the other run to 10:1rr to make an rr of 5:1?? do you want to be in the trade or not?? if you are willing to let half run till 10:1 why not all the possition? if you dont think the trade is good why let anything run?? will the market let you run to 10:1 rr without good MM in place in the first place or without price turning at those big PPZs??
im just throwing this in the mix not giving a view. imho each trade is unique and so will have to be dealt...
Hi Jon, thank you very much! Yes I need a lot of thinking to do.
I will probably stop for a week or two and just review everything SL,TP,MM etc.

I like my setups my entries, in general they are good, so the only problem is trade management. And I will get it fixed. Thanks for you help!
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