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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,201
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:16pm Jun 23, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting pres78
First post, follow up post... Who cares. Posting here has become a waste anyway between the "bickering" and lack of participation / learning. She was a great place while it lasted and hopefully Malc can return and build her back up because right now she is dead.
Guess who also predicted what was happening on this thread several months ago...
  • #21,202
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:49pm Jun 23, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting mrscooting
Guess who also predicted what was happening on this thread several months ago...
I assume you are referring to yourself and I am missing the point of your statement.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,203
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:13pm Jun 23, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting pres78
First post, follow up post... Who cares. Posting here has become a waste anyway between the "bickering" and lack of participation / learning. She was a great place while it lasted and hopefully Malc can return and build her back up because right now she is dead.
I wish you well.
Reserved
  • #21,204
  • Edited 5:16pm Jun 23, 2011 5:06pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting PipPipPip
EU and GU is looking bullishly promising.

GL!

EDIT: possible we might see 1.4350-1.44 today through mid week for eu

eu, not es.
still holding my positions. as rah indicated. 1.50+ for euro
  • #21,205
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:58pm Jun 23, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting PipPipPip
still holding my positions. as rah indicated. 1.50+ for euro
you held a long through all of today?

Fair play!
  • #21,206
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:06pm Jun 23, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
you held a long through all of today?

Fair play!
i added one more at bottom, a bit late at 1.4150. the rest vie been holding from last week.

these damn volume indicators better work. lol.

ill also look over charts tonight.

gl to you!
  • #21,207
  • Edited 10:28pm Jun 23, 2011 7:29pm | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting Beljevina
I am seeing two prominent rejections of the 1.442 region, leaving some prevalent pin bars, where we know there are sellers waiting. The chart is currently at a last stand (dashed) trendline, closing on the day's lows as 5pm NY approaches. If it dips further, 43328 is a minor POC and support of a prev high, but I think the 1.43 level of yest's low & S1 & supply zone & even number, is calling IMHO.

That pin bar and trigger rejection(s) are and can often be telegrams from smart money, for the start of a significant decline. Don't mean to be salivating,...
This worked out wonderfully - we got 210 pips down to 1.413. The risk-off boogey man was deployed, and certainly Trichet's "bleeding red ECB banks" helped carry things. I must admit I was a little complacent and had not yet (and still have not yet closed) my shorts from 1.44, initiated another nice short on the pin bar rejection into 1.419 and 76% fib of the fall as NDs appeared in a number of xxxUSDs, and ES began a decline. Then went to greet the kids (3pm) as they came from school, and saw EU had shot up 100 pips! (Not to mention the injustice committed to ES!) It was of course "Greece was solved, committed, blah blah", and pin bar aside and seeming upthrust, and the beast closed upwards as 5pm NY time came along.

There was good seeming stopping volume on spot - and especially on 6E at 4123 (also S1), but the dip continued another 20 pips lower and provided more stopping volume. The 70 pip move up and my short initiation seemed safe, BUT then the Greek news ripped northward, picking up many a SL, and other buyers. You know they made millions on this. And so, I continue to hold my short down there.

I am expecting 1.42 to be tested again, and potentially exit all shorts, given the daily has printed with strength and seeming volume absorption of sellers. (not completely sure of this level though) SM doesn't like to dip down too far, precisely so that any remaining shorts cannot get out, but a 1.419-1.421 test of the trigger would not be unexpected. Tokyo and Asia is just getting underway at time of writing (8:2o pm NY time), so it's tough to say where risk will be at, but I suspect it will be risk on, given the fanfare around the 5-yr Greece plan and "Greece is resolved", and the SM pop in the last 2 hrs of NY trade. It would make sense for SM to screw any remaining short holders, before the next swing up to a 1.44 retest and 1.45.

And low and behold, the Chinese Premier is in Europe on Friday ... think he'll say anything to boost the euro on behalf of one of the biggest continent investors? Interesting timing ...
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  • #21,208
  • Jun 24, 2011 7:07pm Jun 24, 2011 7:07pm
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Quick drop in the USD against the Swissy (last 15min). It traded sideways for hours and then this. I checked prices also with my ECN broker and its exactly the same.
Question: What does the future chart show?

Cheers
  • #21,209
  • Jun 24, 2011 7:36pm Jun 24, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Attachment

Quick drop in the USD against the Swissy (last 15min). It traded sideways for hours and then this. I checked prices also with my ECN broker and its exactly the same.
Question: What does the future chart show?

Cheers
Back up to 0.8376 according to xe.
Any fat finger at work??

Cheers
  • #21,210
  • Jun 24, 2011 9:16pm Jun 24, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting ZootSuit
I wish you well.
Good job Zootsuit.... you came out of nowhere with some negative energy... several bad posts with ZERO CONTRIBUTION (lookes like they are all in the trash by now !)
Managed to drive good members away and for what ???
what was the point of all the BS ????
If it's a bad thread then just leave !!! plenty of treades out there.... really, what was the point????

I really cant say I wish YOU well...
  • #21,211
  • Jun 25, 2011 9:41am Jun 25, 2011 9:41am
Quoting pipon
Good job Zootsuit.... you came out of nowhere with some negative energy... several bad posts with ZERO CONTRIBUTION (lookes like they are all in the trash by now !)
Managed to drive good members away and for what ???
what was the point of all the BS ????
If it's a bad thread then just leave !!! plenty of treades out there.... really, what was the point????

I really cant say I wish YOU well...
Though I appreciate the kind words I cannot take credit. Have a nice weekend.
Reserved
  • #21,212
  • Jun 25, 2011 4:00pm Jun 25, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting pipon
Good job Zootsuit.... you came out of nowhere with some negative energy... several bad posts with ZERO CONTRIBUTION (lookes like they are all in the trash by now !)
Managed to drive good members away and for what ???
what was the point of all the BS ????
If it's a bad thread then just leave !!! plenty of treades out there.... really, what was the point????

I really cant say I wish YOU well...
The dentist tightened the braces in his mouth so tight that breast feeding for this 15 year old has become difficult. Malnutrition can cause brain damage. See a doctor soon zoot before its too late.
  • #21,213
  • Jun 25, 2011 4:43pm Jun 25, 2011 4:43pm
Oh my... You guys must be bored to give attention to trollers
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #21,214
  • Edited Jun 26, 2011 12:39am Jun 25, 2011 4:58pm | Edited Jun 26, 2011 12:39am
Quoting Sonofsin5
The dentist tightened the braces in his mouth so tight that breast feeding for this 15 year old has become difficult. Malnutrition can cause brain damage. See a doctor soon zoot before its too late.
Malc should restrict this thread by invitation only. I have seen this happening quite often on good threads and it ends up frustrating the knowledgeable traders here as they don't want to put up with BS!.

Lets work to restore the spirit of this thread and I would request Malc to make it by invitation only or some minimum number of vouchers.

Its would be pity to lose this sort of quality thread due to some pesky personality.

I have been out of touch from trading for a quite some time and look forward to start where i left .....feeling rusty but will catch up ...I am not an expert in this area .... I have incorporated VSA as a part of my methodology and would post setup charts as they are unfolding and would welcome comments, positive critique.
  • #21,215
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:01pm Jun 25, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Attachment

Quick drop in the USD against the Swissy (last 15min). It traded sideways for hours and then this. I checked prices also with my ECN broker and its exactly the same.
Question: What does the future chart show?
Funny you mention this. I was watching the market close on Friday (coming up to 5pm NY), and really could not believe this move. Since I monitor futures in parallel and more than spot, it was completely shocking to see this move occur in the lowest liquidity time of the week - 6S - CHF futures - started jumping in the last 12-15 minutes before 5pm. It moved at least 120 pips, to close out at a new high - thus about 40% of it's week's range covered in 12 minutes. EURCHF did 80+ pips, USDCHF did 55+ pips. WTF is that?!?? A combination of stop hunts, algos, and a new safe haven currency IMO, now that JPY is in pain.

While the VSA moves elsewhere in the 6S chart are identifiable, this low liquidity void of participants move has no characteristics that VSA could have helped with. The move would have liquidated any short's stops, and picked up other buyers on the way up, exacerbating the move, and, I'm fairly certainly adding millions to someone's pockets, in the last minutes of the weekend. Nice.

I can't say if these types of moves were happening more than 3 years ago (don't think so, as the level of algo/automated trading was quite low and elementary), as I was not trading then, but this is very disconcerting. These types of moves are beyond what any human can comprehend and deal with, in such a slow period of time, certainly when there is absolutely no logical basis for such a move. In this case, I would suspect a big part of the move is due to algos feeding off of one another, due to each having different data points, moving based on where another is moving, and just compounding moves. Much like the May 6/10 flash crash.

If you are interested in a worthwhile documentary on this, "Money & Speed: Inside the Black Box" would be a beneficial 45 minute investment, and entertaining for traders. In it, you will learn more of the May 6/10 flash crash, black boxes, algos, and what it's done to our trading environment and society. It's a bit heavy on drama at first, but gets better 7-10 min in. You will gain an understanding of what/how happened May 6, realize the impact of the algo facility hosting firms, their secrecy, that the SEC report on May 6 is bogus, and how out of control the markets have become, impact to retail traders like you and I, and how the algos are making/manufacturing money for their owners in grossly disproportionate ways. It is 96% in English, so just put up with the Dutch components, unless of course you understand it, lol. Watch it full screen, and enjoy; heck, if you have a spouse, it would be entertaining & learning packed for them, and will provide/give them an appreciation of what a challenge it is to be a trader in 2011! http://beta.uitzendinggemist.nl/afleveringen/1059643
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  • #21,216
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:10pm Jun 25, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting Beljevina
Funny you mention this. I was watching the market close on Friday (coming up to 5pm NY), and really could not believe this move. Since I monitor futures in parallel and more than spot, it was completely shocking to see this move occur in the lowest liquidity time of the week - 6S - CHF futures - started jumping in the last 12-15 minutes before 5pm. It moved at least 120 pips, to close out at a new high - thus about 40% of it's week's range covered in 12 minutes. EURCHF did 80+ pips, USDCHF did 55+ pips. WTF is that?!?? A combination of stop hunts,...
Thank you for the chart and the link very appreciated.
By the way according to xe.com we down again at 0.8330.

Cheers
  • #21,217
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:31pm Jun 25, 2011 6:31pm
Daily View of this pair ...will post lower TF breakdown as well....looks like pirce finding support at the marked level.
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  • #21,218
  • Jun 25, 2011 9:07pm Jun 25, 2011 9:07pm
Quoting MktScape
Daily View of this pair ...will post lower TF breakdown as well....looks like pirce finding support at the marked level.
You said you're expert in this area..." price finding support at the marked level"...thanks... this chart analysis will definitely improve my understanding of VSA...
  • #21,219
  • Edited 1:18am Jun 26, 2011 12:42am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting mrscooting
You said you're expert in this area..." price finding support at the marked level"...thanks... this chart analysis will definitely improve my understanding of VSA...
I have corrected my earlier post ....I am 'NOT' an expert in VSA..... but have studied it thoroughly.

Now with Price finding support ....it is an important event to note (especially a retest of the same level) this is the area to watch on lower TF to detect early signs of reversal. A No Supply retest will be an ideal entry point.
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  • #21,220
  • Jun 26, 2011 12:46pm Jun 26, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting MktScape
I have corrected my earlier post ....I am 'NOT' an expert in VSA..... but have studied it thoroughly.

Now with Price finding support ....it is an important event to note (especially a retest of the same level) this is the area to watch on lower TF to detect early signs of reversal. A No Supply retest will be an ideal entry point.
Euro late last week looked like accumulation. Look at euro futures M30 on Thursday. And with all this talk about euro death crash, US going off QE 2... makes it pretty obvious where the euro is headed soon. Higher.

Interesting in seeing how early Asia pans out. We might just gap up and not come back down for a while.
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