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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,961
  • Jun 22, 2011 4:08pm Jun 22, 2011 4:08pm
haven't traded this week, traveling for work again and just no time...here's my current thought marked on the chart. I see 2 options now, however both IMO revolve around the anomaly on the weekly chart on the left (around 4250).

1. down to repair anomaly and then back up for another run at WIBH. Note that wide weekly IB will take greater momentum and volume to break it.

2. down to anomaly and sellers are found to cary momentum down to WIBL and break.

also note how the the weekly IB is limited by last week's VAL and POC...which ever side breaks is the way to go for a longer run IMO.

A 4hr chart with volume also shows decreasing volume on the entire retrace back up to 4400 from the last swing low of 4070 so my current thinking is EU continues down, but let's take it one step at a time...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO 2011-06-22 at 6.51.34 PM.png Size: 217 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,962
  • Jun 22, 2011 5:59pm Jun 22, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting tgwhbb
haven't traded this week, traveling for work again and just no time...here's my current thought marked on the chart. I see 2 options now, however both IMO revolve around the anomaly on the weekly chart on the left (around 4250).

1. down to repair anomaly and then back up for another run at WIBH. Note that wide weekly IB will take greater momentum and volume to break it.

2. down to anomaly and sellers are found to cary momentum down to WIBL and break.

also note how the the weekly IB is limited by last week's VAL and POC...which ever side...
There appear to be buyers at the week's VAL around 1.43. Maybe a push back to the naked POC around 1.44 is in order. Upon further thinking, today's NY sessions could very well be a long liquidation break to shakeout weak longs. I'm long at 4312, let's see how this plays out.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,963
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:55pm Jun 22, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting tgwhbb
haven't traded this week, traveling for work again and just no time...here's my current thought marked on the chart. I see 2 options now, however both IMO revolve around the anomaly on the weekly chart on the left (around 4250).

1. down to repair anomaly and then back up for another run at WIBH. Note that wide weekly IB will take greater momentum and volume to break it.

2. down to anomaly and sellers are found to cary momentum down to WIBL and break.

also note how the the weekly IB is limited by last week's VAL and POC...which ever side breaks...

Thank you for your valued response to my initial post and contributions on the thread, i have two request, how do you trade the spreads on the market profile and also please post the indicator(s) that gave you the chart above and also wat is the meaning of your statement "F period gap filled in H period signalling traversal down".Thank you
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,964
  • Edited 6:37am Jun 23, 2011 5:38am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting mima
Price is at WPOC (1.4362)...it might go again to YPOC (1.4214) or to weekly 1st SD(1.4432)
In fact it went to 1.4440 first...then to 1.4175...so far so good...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,965
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:41am Jun 23, 2011 5:41am
Quoting tgwhbb
There appear to be buyers at the week's VAL around 1.43. Maybe a push back to the naked POC around 1.44 is in order. Upon further thinking, today's NY sessions could very well be a long liquidation break to shakeout weak longs. I'm long at 4312, let's see how this plays out.
i really should stick with my initial analysis...that didn't work...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,966
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:53am Jun 23, 2011 5:53am
Quoting lordgbengs
Thank you for your valued response to my initial post and contributions on the thread, i have two request, how do you trade the spreads on the market profile and also please post the indicator(s) that gave you the chart above and also wat is the meaning of your statement "F period gap filled in H period signalling traversal down".Thank you
Hi lordgbengs,

Not sure what you mean by "how do I trade the spreads of the profile", can you elaborate?

The indicators used are bandungs, ay-TPOChart on the left chart, and ay-TPOSession on the right, plus my Initial Balances indicator. All 3 are in the attachments of this thread.

About the gap being filled, its not technically a gap, but rather a single print. F period was a price probe into the 1st extension of the NY IB, which created the spike. G period then saw some consolidation but left 2 single F prints as it did not retrace down to the base of the spike. This left an anomaly which would need to get revisited as it is poor structure. IMO there were to ways to deal with this structure. 1) the market did not care and would therefore continue up or 2) repair was in order. What lead me to think a reversal was in order though was because the repair in H period also coincided with the end of one-timeframing up, combined with no progression of value during the London session.

Hope that helps, and now wished I had taken that trade as 4250 didn't hold well at all and today's Asia and London session are short and the market doesn't seem to care for an inventory correction which means the market is in fact weak. Next logical target should be weekly WIBL extensions around 3950 if price breaks last week's low at 4070.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,967
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:44am Jun 23, 2011 8:44am
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi lordgbengs,

Not sure what you mean by "how do I trade the spreads of the profile", can you elaborate?

The indicators used are bandungs, ay-TPOChart on the left chart, and ay-TPOSession on the right, plus my Initial Balances indicator. All 3 are in the attachments of this thread.

About the gap being filled, its not technically a gap, but rather a single print. F period was a price probe into the 1st extension of the NY IB, which created the spike. G period then saw some consolidation but left 2 single F prints as it did not retrace down...


Thanks tgwhbb for your explanations,the spread i meant is,if the spread favours the other timeframe buyers are we likely seeing a weakness in the market(an opportunity to sell), actually the spread is the difference between the no of letter(A,B or wateva) above and below the value area.

On the indicators i have installed them only the initial balance is working, am using FXpro, any help will be appreciated.

I have attached a chart just to show that as price broke two very close monthly POC, it fired down....power of MP, enjoying the fun. Thanks guys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: poc.gif Size: 34 KB
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,968
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:53am Jun 23, 2011 8:53am
Guys and gals, don't forget JD webinar today at 4.30pm ET

See you all there (if you ask forex question I guess you are the one
  • #2,969
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:37am Jun 23, 2011 10:37am
EU went down out of balance, probing around previous POC @ 4300, then exhaust the range in 4120 - which is previous weekly low, and bounce out for nice pips. We've got a range for the week, though I'm not surprise to see further back down for closing this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mp_240611_01.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #2,970
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:53am Jun 23, 2011 10:53am
Quoting alexm
Guys and gals, don't forget JD webinar today at 4.30pm ET

See you all there (if you ask forex question I guess you are the one
hey alex, how do you find out about these webinars? I registered on their mailing list but don't get any emails from them...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,971
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:35pm Jun 23, 2011 12:35pm
Manage to find time after NY session to see what's left of this liquidation break...

Manage to grab a bite right on last Thursday POC level. with 3 rounds of falling value for the today's session & daily profile RE was well extended too; all the all ingredients for a reversal.

Strong recovery with tempo off the 4125 level, we can now look for a shorterm inventory adjustments since this session is rather stretch & expect price to revisit 4200 or below, to fair value area (4180-ish), IF Asia were to opens above value of coz. A good trade location for a pullback low.

Anyway gtg & i think have to give this pullback low a miss & JD's webinar too (tks alex)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Jun. 24 03.19.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #2,972
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:14pm Jun 23, 2011 5:14pm
oops I missed it,
Alex, jamie, Kave
any link to the recorded webinar ?
Quoting tgwhbb
hey alex, how do you find out about these webinars? I registered on their mailing list but don't get any emails from them...
  • #2,973
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:29pm Jun 23, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting tgwhbb
hey alex, how do you find out about these webinars? I registered on their mailing list but don't get any emails from them...
Hi Jamie,

You may send an email to Julia (JD side kick) to ask her to add you into her mailing list.

[email protected]
  • #2,974
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:32pm Jun 23, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting skyscraper
oops I missed it,
Alex, jamie, Kave
any link to the recorded webinar ?
I did a search on vimeo, not upload yet. can check again later.

In vimeo you can find many webinar from JD.

http://vimeo.com/user4051895
  • #2,975
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:05pm Jun 23, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting Evak
Manage to find time after NY session to see what's left of this liquidation break...

Manage to grab a bite right on last Thursday POC level. with 3 rounds of falling value for the today's session & daily profile RE was well extended too; all the all ingredients for a reversal.

Strong recovery with tempo off the 4125 level, we can now look for a shorterm inventory adjustments since this session is rather stretch & expect price to revisit 4200 or below, to fair value area (4180-ish), IF Asia were to opens above value of coz. A good trade location...
You analysis is in sync with the market, man after I came back from Guam, it seems like i lost my grip for the past two weeks of what to anticipate. What the hack!

I think I'm going to read Market in Profile one more time to get me back on the right track again.
  • #2,976
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:46pm Jun 23, 2011 10:46pm
EU rotates within 1SD, efficient, balanced...need some news somewhere in the world to tip it up or down...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,977
  • Jun 24, 2011 2:20am Jun 24, 2011 2:20am
Quoting alexm
You analysis is in sync with the market, man after I came back from Guam, it seems like i lost my grip for the past two weeks of what to anticipate. What the hack!

I think I'm going to read Market in Profile one more time to get me back on the right track again.
Considering where u you have came back from. I can't blame u
  • #2,978
  • Jun 24, 2011 2:25am Jun 24, 2011 2:25am
Quoting mima
EU rotates within 1SD, efficient, balanced...need some news somewhere in the world to tip it up or down...
Just curious mima, are U referring daily profile ? If so, then what is your IB period set to? Just curios coz if your if not your SD & my SD will be markedly different...

For daily profile i use h1x4 for IB & i think Claudio use that too. I recall it was a suggested value for looking at 24 hour market...

Open set to Aussie for now...
  • #2,979
  • Edited 2:49am Jun 24, 2011 2:38am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting Evak
Manage to find time after NY session to see what's left of this liquidation break...

Manage to grab a bite right on last Thursday POC level. with 3 rounds of falling value for the today's session & daily profile RE was well extended too; all the all ingredients for a reversal.

Strong recovery with tempo off the 4125 level, we can now look for a shorterm inventory adjustments since this session is rather stretch & expect price to revisit 4200 or below, to fair value area (4180-ish), IF Asia were to opens above value of coz. A good trade location...
update:
The shorterm Inventory adjustment see price pullback to 4200. Market completely moving value higher away from NY & auction back up to yesterdays Asia/UK Value area with current Asia/UK fair value now just below yesterday Asia/UK value area. Did anyone miss the pullback low?

Since Inventory is mostly short now, If market still in wholesale mode, at current level, we should see NY open above fair value of the Asia/UK session, opening test on it & perhaps head north to to test yesterdays high. (Asia/UK profile can be considered an overnight session relative to NY)

 Note: chart set with Asia/UK merge as overnight to US, Aussie open is ignored.
Attached Image
  • #2,980
  • Edited 4:03am Jun 24, 2011 3:17am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Evak
Just curious mima, are U referring daily profile ? If so, then what is your IB period set to? Just curios coz if your if not your SD & my SD will be markedly different...

For daily profile i use h1x4 for IB & i think Claudio use that too. I recall it was a suggested value for looking at 24 hour market...

Open set to Aussie for now...
1SD now is 1.4242 and 1.4272...at the time of writing previous post it was more narrow...I do not use IB....Yes it is daily market profile...POC is 1.4257
IB has nothing to do with SD(standard deviations)...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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