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Fail Better

  • #781
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:03am Jun 23, 2011 6:03am
Quoting pipz4me
I prefer to wait for the short entry if price falls further and then retests 1.599.

Otherwise I am looking to short at 1.6076.

Dont fancy going long of this pair anytime soon
I can see why you'd short at 6076 - and I will too!!

But why short at 599?
  • #782
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:04am Jun 23, 2011 6:04am
Hey Tom,

I have backtested the SPF on EURUSD daily. Entry on Close. Stop 1 pip below/above the bars low/high. TP at 1R or 2R.

1R TP would give 69% winners
2R TP would give 31% winners

See the trades as per my subjective criteria attached. Maybe someone finds it helpful.

Thanks for the webinars. See you there...
kpt
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Swing Failure Pattern.doc   270 KB | 2,419 downloads
  • #783
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:05am Jun 23, 2011 6:05am
Quoting Atc
Simple S/R missed entry by couple of pips....just wanted to buy what appeared to be a strong level.

Where do you think the target should be?
That support has been hit way too many times for me.

I'm trying to buy it lower. I'm intending to bid for it beneath the D1 swing lows and outside its current ATR.

I'm looking for 1.5910 at the moment.
  • #784
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:10am Jun 23, 2011 6:10am
Quoting kptMisiu
Hey Tom,

I have backtested the SPF on EURUSD daily. Entry on Close. Stop 1 pip below/above the bars low/high. TP at 1R or 2R.

1R TP would give 69% winners
2R TP would give 31% winners

See the trades as per my subjective criteria attached. Maybe someone finds it helpful.

Thanks for the webinars. See you there...
kpt
Thanks for this. I will check it out.

Gold is now down $12 (120 ticks) from yesterdays close :-)
  • #785
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:15am Jun 23, 2011 6:15am
Quoting Gt3rs
I can see why you'd short at 6076 - and I will too!!

But why short at 599?

because its a strong daily support level, so if price weakens further to say 1.595 and then comes back to retest this level, I will then short it. Its not on my radar just yet - it may or may not happen and its just my opinion based on what I see. Hope that helps
  • #786
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:23am Jun 23, 2011 6:23am
Quoting the_wizard
That support has been hit way too many times for me.

I'm trying to buy it lower. I'm intending to bid for it beneath the D1 swing lows and outside its current ATR.

I'm looking for 1.5910 at the moment.
Interesting Tom, thanks for your insight....a kind of ATR execution play.
  • #787
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:31am Jun 23, 2011 6:31am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #788
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:38am Jun 23, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Atc
.
That level doesn't look great on the D1...
  • #789
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:46am Jun 23, 2011 6:46am
Quoting the_wizard
That support has been hit way too many times for me.

I'm trying to buy it lower. I'm intending to bid for it beneath the D1 swing lows and outside its current ATR.

I'm looking for 1.5910 at the moment.
Tom - I don't understand this. Could you possibly pop it on your notes to cover in the webinar on Sunday? Rather than trying to explain here?!

Thanks!
  • #790
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:55am Jun 23, 2011 6:55am
Quoting pipz4me
I prefer to wait for the short entry if price falls further and then retests 1.599.

Otherwise I am looking to short at 1.6076.

Dont fancy going long of this pair anytime soon
Agree to many touches for my liking! Better to wait for the short break and retest!
  • #791
  • Jun 23, 2011 7:08am Jun 23, 2011 7:08am
Quoting the_wizard
That level doesn't look great on the D1...
I agree with you Tom, maybe it's my impatience acting on me. Furthemore, I don't like how price is weeping down. Ahhh, the psychology of it all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #792
  • Jun 23, 2011 7:31am Jun 23, 2011 7:31am
Quoting kwikwis
Hi there,
try this one http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post3219195
i dont use it much myself, so dont forget to test it before going live.
hope that helps.
Thanks.

I'll check this out.

Quoting Pc1
I think the close has to be below the previous swing high. So in this case, the previous swing high was at - 1553.530 and the current swing or failed swing was closed at 1546.640. Hence it was closed below the high, I would think it is SPF.

Tom and/or any other trader, any comments ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif

Yea, I looked back and I am wrong I thought it was the close but it is the high.
  • #793
  • Jun 23, 2011 7:41am Jun 23, 2011 7:41am
Gold down now almost $30 (300 ticks).

Anyone in this?
  • #794
  • Jun 23, 2011 7:50am Jun 23, 2011 7:50am
Quoting the_wizard
Gold down now almost $30 (300 ticks).

Anyone in this?
Not Gold but short Silver since 36.11
  • #795
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:08am Jun 23, 2011 8:08am
Quoting the_wizard
Gold down now almost $30 (300 ticks).

Anyone in this?
I am with a tiny position so it does not really matter moneywise. Only practicing and building confidence with SFP.

pat
  • #796
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:57am Jun 23, 2011 8:57am
Quoting the_wizard
Gold down now almost $30 (300 ticks).

Anyone in this?
Recognised the set-up but didn't have the confidence to take it! Step by step...
  • #797
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:38am Jun 23, 2011 9:38am
Guys i might be being a bit a*** rentetive with this but wasnt there a SPF failure before on Gold as well? I have marked the area which i thought was the previous swing pattern failure, please see the former two red arrows not the latter two red arrows as that was the setup that everyone else was looking at on the thread. I just wanted some thoughts on this from anyone or Tom?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #798
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:47am Jun 23, 2011 9:47am
Quoting simplebeans
Is this the only way to do it?
I think there is 1000 ways to skin the trade
Anything can happen - You never know
  • #799
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:47am Jun 23, 2011 9:47am
Quoting simplebeans
Guys i might be being a bit a*** rentetive with this but wasnt there a SPF failure before on Gold as well? I have marked the area which i thought was the previous swing pattern failure, please see the former to red arrows not the latter two red arrows as that was the setup that everyone else took. I just wanted some thoughts on this from anyone or Tom?

Attachment
The most recent one is an SPF yes.

The one before isn't - the close isn't a decent distance below the previous swing high........................ in fact, it doesn't look like it's below it at all?
  • #800
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:53am Jun 23, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Gt3rs
The most recent one is an SPF yes.

The one before isn't - the close isn't a decent distance below the previous swing high........................ in fact, it doesn't look like it's below it at all?

it closes slightly below on fx pro feed but the bar is bullish with the next bar marking the actual swing high - this is then the SPF at this point. and the next bar is down. Perfectly valid
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