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  • #741
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:40am Jun 22, 2011 7:40am
Quoting diggerd
Hi Tom,

When you say this, are you referring to the fact that it has not acted as support before (at least in recent history). If so, why does that tend to increase the chance of a successful trade on a break through & retest?

Is it to do with the fact there is a lot more "clear sky" and no real price action history to provide key trouble areas?

I know you like to answer these things in the Webinar, but I wont be there this week.

Cheers
Yes, in this example you have some clear sky :-)
  • #742
  • Edited 8:10am Jun 22, 2011 7:43am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting pipz4me
Long at .81420. Not the greatest example - I put my buy order as price initialy broke through .81420 and didnt expect it to come back so quickly.

Its with the trend though, but will need tight management as it may run out of steam at previous bar high
On the H1 I've heard that referred to as a "butt kiss". (i.e. where it comes back on the next bar rather than rounding back to it).

I always prefer the rounded retest but I see it worked for you :-)
  • #743
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:51am Jun 22, 2011 7:51am
So, I'm on Skype discussing the spider pattern with another trader and he used such an excellent analogy I wanted to share it with you.

For those of you casanovas out there - take heed ;-)

The market moves up and sells off.

It comes back to KISS the previous high. Then it sells off and resistance is confirmed.

It makes a higher low and soon enough comes back for another KISS of the level. Again, the markets amorous advances are repelled by the female who fights valiently to retain her chastity :-)

But each time she gets weaker (think of a Mills and Boon style swoon) as the male advances again for another KISS.

Now, why would a male keep on pressing himself against a female for a kiss?

As my trading friend said to me : He's looking for PENETRATION of course!

Duh!

;-)
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  • #744
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:04am Jun 22, 2011 8:04am
Quoting the_wizard
So, I'm on Skype discussing the spider pattern with another trader and he used such an excellent analogy I wanted to share it with you.

For those of you casanovas out there - take heed ;-)

The market moves up and sells off.

It comes back to KISS the previous high. Then it sells off and resistance is confirmed.

It makes a higher low and soon enough comes back for another KISS of the level. Again, the markets amorous advances are repelled by the female who fights valiently to retain her chastity :-)

But each time she gets weaker (think of...
Brilliant

So now the 'Spider' is soon to be re-christened the 'Keep Kissing and Eventually you'll get a Shag' pattern - class !!
  • #745
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:07am Jun 22, 2011 8:07am
You should call it"Casanova pattern"....
  • #746
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:08am Jun 22, 2011 8:08am
Quoting the_wizard
Adilius,

RE: The swing pattern failure.

Here is an example of swing pattern failure that is bullish.

Price makes a swing low at the circled area on the chart.

Price then rallies away from this swing low.

It returns on the day marked by the blue arrow and breaks the swing low intraday but closes above it.

Once you see this, I have found it to be high probability that the next day will be a positive one. From time to time, this can also mark the beginning of a trend reversal.

This pattern would naturally be in reverse for bearish...
On SFP, does the close of failed swing should be above/below the previous swing bar?


In the case, EURCHF example,
The frst swing close was at - 1.2080
and the 2nd swing or the failed swing close was at :1.2054
it means failed swing bar closed below the close of the first swing bar..

does this still be considered as a SFP ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #747
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:15am Jun 22, 2011 8:15am
Quoting madboy
You should call it"Casanova pattern"....
LOL - I'm not only re-naming it, I'm going to steal it and pretend I came up with it and I'm going to take the other material in the webinar about how the best traders don't care (which is incidentally how you attract a girls interest ; by not wanting it too badly) and I'm going to write a book called "Why Casanovas make Great Traders" and it's going to be on Amazon and it's going to be a best seller and I'm going to be rich beyond my wildest dreams and...

OK back to trading :-)
  • #748
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:18am Jun 22, 2011 8:18am
Quoting Pc1
On SFP, does the close of failed swing should be above/below the previous swing bar?


In the case, EURCHF example,
The frst swing close was at - 1.2080
and the 2nd swing or the failed swing close was at :1.2054
it means failed swing bar closed below the close of the first swing bar..

does this still be considered as a SFP ?
The Close has to be ABOVE the previous swings LOW (not close).

I generally look for it with reference to the LAST swing point (look left).

So, in my example, it was a SPF with regards to the previous swing low.

In your example, it is actually another SPF with regards to the swing low just three candles before.

It's a bit tricky to explain but hopefully you have it now. Still, if anyone is in any doubt, we'll cover it again on Sunday.
  • #749
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:38am Jun 22, 2011 8:38am
Quoting the_wizard
LOL - I'm not only re-naming it, I'm going to steal it and pretend I came up with it and I'm going to take the other material in the webinar about how the best traders don't care (which is incidentally how you attract a girls interest ; by not wanting it too badly) and I'm going to write a book called "Why Casanovas make Great Traders" and it's going to be on Amazon and it's going to be a best seller and I'm going to be rich beyond my wildest dreams and...

OK back to trading :-)
The webinar might turn into a dating webinar over a while,girls will be attracted,thousands of them,and then you will be able to charge us,this is actually a pretty good business idea ....and a good motivation to stay or become profitable as a trader
Just kidding!!!
  • #750
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:58am Jun 22, 2011 8:58am
This was a nice break,let's see if we get a close above 1550.
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  • #751
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:32am Jun 22, 2011 9:32am
We could have a potential trade in the making. We have a breakout...the price just needs to stay there for a while and then come back to pick us up.
Attached Image
  • #752
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:35am Jun 22, 2011 9:35am
Hey Tom,

Would this qualify?

spider on the NU 1H.

It's not a rounded retest which you prefer, so do you never take the butt kiss trade?

(half off at +2R, rest at BE targeting for 8195.)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #753
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:55am Jun 22, 2011 10:55am
I'm looking at Aussie level at 1.0640 or thereabouts.

Possible rounded retest back to that level for longs?

This would also represent a failure of the downward sloping daily trendline [dotted green on my chart].

Tom - and the more experienced guys on here - I'd appreciate your comments/critique on this chart!

[of course, now it's just about to print an H1 pinbar and reverse!! lol]
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  • #754
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:21am Jun 22, 2011 11:21am
Also looking to see how this pans out:

Possible swing failure pattern on EU H4.
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  • #755
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:43am Jun 22, 2011 11:43am
Quoting Gt3rs
I'm looking at Aussie level at 1.0640 or thereabouts.

Possible rounded retest back to that level for longs?

This would also represent a failure of the downward sloping daily trendline [dotted green on my chart].

Tom - and the more experienced guys on here - I'd appreciate your comments/critique on this chart!

[of course, now it's just about to print an H1 pinbar and reverse!! lol]
Nice level and I, for one, agree with you.
  • #756
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:46am Jun 22, 2011 11:46am
Quoting ghous
Hey Tom,

Would this qualify?

spider on the NU 1H.

It's not a rounded retest which you prefer, so do you never take the butt kiss trade?

(half off at +2R, rest at BE targeting for 8195.)

g.
Half off at +2R, rest at...WHAT, GHOUS? ;-)

On a serious note, nice trade. However, I do prefer it rounded and rarely take the butt kiss.

But tell me one thing. If your target is 8195 and it has traded 8194, are you prepared to let that come back to your entry?
  • #757
  • Jun 22, 2011 12:50pm Jun 22, 2011 12:50pm
Tom,

Perhaps I've misunderstood the concepts, but I'm looking at Gold on the hourly now and the possibility of a long on the retest of 1550, but I'm concerned that on the daily we could be seeing a SPF setup forming, which would indicate the following day being bearish. How do you decide the best course of action in such a situation? Does the time of day come into play?

Thanks

Rob
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #758
  • Jun 22, 2011 1:25pm Jun 22, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting the_wizard
Half off at +2R, rest at...WHAT, GHOUS? ;-)

On a serious note, nice trade. However, I do prefer it rounded and rarely take the butt kiss.

But tell me one thing. If your target is 8195 and it has traded 8194, are you prepared to let that come back to your entry?
lolol

I had taken some off the table so it was a net winner anyway, but yeah the fact that it missed my TP by a pip and could have reversed on me the whole way does bug me. It's all going in the record keeping...

Anyway it's now just under the lowest low of the recent halt.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #759
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:41pm Jun 22, 2011 3:41pm
Cable H1.

Breakout from D1 triangle [my dotted green line] and below a level at approx 1.6090.

Looking for a rounded retest to short.

Hope it doesn't happen while I'm getting my beauty sleep.

Tom - thanks for the feedback on the Aussie chart - didn't set up in the end.

I'd appreciate your comments on this one as well.

Many thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #760
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:06pm Jun 22, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting the_wizard
So, I'm on Skype discussing the spider pattern with another trader and he used such an excellent analogy I wanted to share it with you.

For those of you casanovas out there - take heed ;-)

The market moves up and sells off.

It comes back to KISS the previous high. Then it sells off and resistance is confirmed.

It makes a higher low and soon enough comes back for another KISS of the level. Again, the markets amorous advances are repelled by the female who fights valiently to retain her chastity :-)

But each time she gets weaker (think of...
Tom can you trade the Spider? If so where? Or are we just purely looking for a rounded retest on these?
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