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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,961
  • Jun 21, 2011 6:43pm Jun 21, 2011 6:43pm
Quoting Tact1cal
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24494689/

Riot time!
I love riots...

Inserted Video
  • #1,962
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:04pm Jun 21, 2011 7:04pm
Lol good riot music. I love that song.

I was hoping we'd get some fireworks. Seems the greeks have chosen to hold hands and spin in a circle instead. :|
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #1,963
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:06pm Jun 21, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting Tact1cal
Lol good riot music. I love that song.

I was hoping we'd get some fireworks. Seems the greeks have chosen to hold hands and spin in a circle instead. :|
ha....they must be all rioted out for now...they need to take a breather.
  • #1,964
  • Jun 21, 2011 9:01pm Jun 21, 2011 9:01pm
"We expect the Greek parliament to endorse the economic reform programme as agreed by the end of June", Rehn Said

http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Page...ce-falling.jpg

Yeah... right Eat that
  • #1,965
  • Jun 21, 2011 11:46pm Jun 21, 2011 11:46pm
Just an FYI for anyone who submitted a book request in the last 3 weeks, you might want to resubmit it. Seems there was a problem with the form and I didn't receive some of them. Sorry about the inconvenience.
  • #1,966
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:02am Jun 22, 2011 7:02am
Quoting Darkstar
Just an FYI for anyone who submitted a book request in the last 3 weeks, you might want to resubmit it. Seems there was a problem with the form and I didn't receive some of them. Sorry about the inconvenience.
What if you could post a list of people who requested for the book so every one can check if their request has gone through or not.

also,
When are you going to post your deleted "Lquidity thread" on your blog?

Thanks.
.
  • #1,967
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:09am Jun 22, 2011 7:09am
Quoting nasir.khan

When are you going to post your deleted "Liquidity thread" on your blog?

Thanks.
.

Nasir,

You were speaking my own thoughts with that last post.

Darkstar,

Do you think you will be reposting the "Ooh sweet liquidity" thread or has that been deleted for ever?

Best regards,

James.
  • #1,968
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:11am Jun 22, 2011 7:11am
Guys,

For the more experienced OF traders in this great thread:

I keep banging my head to this one question that we should always ask ourserlves:
"Who is taking the other side of my trade? Why is he doing that?"

Being a small retail trader (eg. trading within a bucketshop), the other side of all my
trades are taken by my broker, which provides my liquidity. Now I don't know if and
when he hedges his net exposure to the sum of all his customer's trades, but clearly
he is taking the other side because:

1. statistically, he's got a 95% winning percentage (we all know why)
2. he's always earning the spread

But how exactly does this fit in the OF process I should be thinking throughout the day?
What am I missing?

Thanks!
  • #1,969
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:14am Jun 22, 2011 9:14am
Sumi,

Firstly your broker is most likely hedging your bets totally in house. Maybe if he were to be given a large order then he may have to hedge on to the intebank.

Secondly instead of thinking about your broker taking the other side of your trade start thinking about when you make a profit where do you get that profit from. For you to win someone has to lose as forex is zero sum.

Have a read through of the pdf that I've attached to this post should point you in the right direction.

Good luck

James.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Zerosum.pdf   80 KB | 390 downloads
  • #1,970
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:30am Jun 22, 2011 9:30am
The definition of zero sum "for every winner there has to be a loser" is clearly untrue in forex, for there are participants such as corporates and other players with similar goals that don't trade for profit or to" win or lose", changing that dynamic. The stock market is more true of a zero sum in that sense.

But if you're talking theoretically in terms of intrinsic value then I guess all markets are zero sum.
  • #1,971
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:50am Jun 22, 2011 9:50am
richwebb- I tried the platform optionbit, until now it is very efficient and reliable. Recommend you to try as well ..
  • #1,972
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:00am Jun 22, 2011 10:00am
haha gotta love these optionbit trolls.. im sorry for ever mentioning it
  • #1,973
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:21am Jun 22, 2011 10:21am
Quoting Monroe
The definition of zero sum "for every winner there has to be a loser" is clearly untrue in forex, for there are participants such as corporates and other players with similar goals that don't trade for profit or to" win or lose", changing that dynamic. The stock market is more true of a zero sum in that sense.

But if you're talking theoretically in terms of intrinsic value then I guess all markets are zero sum.
Monroe by definition, it is not the intention of the participant rather the outcome of the game. According to game theory, until all the possible scenario has loss + gain = 0, we have a zero sum game.

Putting that to perspective, if there was a possibilty to the corporates and other players to trade without making a loss - they would gladly do so. No one wants to take a loss.

Stock markets deviate a bit from the fact loss + gain = 0 when we figure in the dividend/splits. Though as you put intrinsically speaking all markets are zero sum.
  • #1,974
  • Edited 10:45am Jun 22, 2011 10:32am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting vicky_ag
Monroe by definition, it is not the intention of the participant rather the outcome of the game. According to game theory, until all the possible scenario has loss + gain = 0, we have a zero sum game.

Putting that to perspective, if there was a possibilty to the corporates and other players to trade without making a loss - they would gladly do so. No one wants to take a loss.

Stock markets deviate a bit from the fact loss + gain = 0 when we figure in the dividend/splits. Though as you put intrinsically speaking all markets are zero sum....
What's up vicky_ag... I was just saying, in reality and not theoretically, there are large participants not treating the game as zero sum, and not caring about the outcome of the game, therefor that changes the dynamic of it. Although some corporates have treasury desks that strategically try and time it for best price, some don't care and they just need to exchange money to do what they have to do.

Regarding the stock market, good point about dividends/splits, but all transactions are for profit, this is not the same in FX.

Anyway, not worth arguing about.
  • #1,975
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:35am Jun 22, 2011 10:35am
Quoting Monroe
EZ debt crisis timeline...

Attachment


Excellent, Monroe!

I've just seen Inside Job. Great movie compared to HBO crap Too Big To Fail.
If you know the housing bubble is going to collapse but don't have the adequate instruments to capitalize on it then you just need to create that instrument!
  • #1,976
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:40am Jun 22, 2011 10:40am
Quoting seagreen


Excellent, Monroe!

I've just seen Inside Job. Great movie compared to HBO crap Too Big To Fail.
If you know the housing bubble is going to collapse but don't have the adequate instruments to capitalize on it then you just need to create that instrument!
Cool I'll check it out, I haven't seen 'To Big to Fail' either, you didn't like it?
  • #1,977
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:54am Jun 22, 2011 10:54am
Quoting Monroe
Cool I'll check it out, I haven't seen 'To Big to Fail' either, you didn't like it?
Well it's probably informative if you like to know some details of how the bailout process unfolded. What I didn't like is that they show only the bright side - heros saving the world from the great collapse - and nothing about the causes of the credit bubble. Maybe it's just me cause I hate hollywood style hero movies. Anyway, to get the big picture watch both of them.
  • #1,978
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:25pm Jun 22, 2011 2:25pm
Has anyone used the market news international for orders info? I'm on a trial at the moment but if I could afford it I think it would be better than IFR.

Heres a quick snippet from them today. They have a lot of detail.

07:40 06/22 MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.4500 Strong offers ahead/$1.37-1.45 dnt July 18/Option expiry
$1.4480 Minor offers
$1.4440 Medium offers/Stops on break/$1.4450 option expiry
$1.4435 Int.Day high Asia post Greek vote
$1.4420 Europe high/Medium offers/Option expiry decent size
$1.4400 Option expiry decent size
$1.4380 ***Current mkt rate 1124GMT Wednesday
$1.43535 Pullback low Europe, off early highs at $1.4420
$1.4345 Int. Day low Asia/Ichimoku cloud base $1.4346
$1.4340 Medium demand/Asian stops on break/$1.4350-40 expiries
$1.4320 Option expiry
$1.4305/290 Medium demand/Stops on break/$1.4300 option expiry
$1.4275/70 Medium demand/$1.4275 option expiry
$1.4255/50 Medium demand
  • #1,979
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:39pm Jun 22, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Has anyone used the market news international for orders info? I'm on a trial at the moment but if I could afford it I think it would be better than IFR.

Heres a quick snippet from them today. They have a lot of detail.

07:40 06/22 MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.4500 Strong offers ahead/$1.37-1.45 dnt July 18/Option expiry
$1.4480 Minor offers
$1.4440 Medium offers/Stops on break/$1.4450 option expiry
$1.4435 Int.Day high Asia post Greek vote
$1.4420 Europe high/Medium offers/Option expiry decent...
yes MNI FX bullet's are good... i don't see any order flow info in there then i already got for free.

I tried the free trial a few months ago.
  • #1,980
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:48pm Jun 22, 2011 2:48pm
There seems to be a lot more order chatter with them than what I get from IFR.

Whats the best news source you've tried monroe?
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