I would been all over the euro If I was awake. I've been waiting for this. Every one was short.
Winning is good, flat is OK, losing is bad. That's the way I see it.
I took the possibility of short covering into account and I was long the first 50 pips of the way up. Since the morning hours had been dominated by bad news I started fading it aggressively. Didn't work out too good.
That was me alright (if you're referring to the spread story).
Actually I started reading ZH when it had just a few hundred RSS followers. It was on the blogger platform and it was top-notch news. About half a year later it started featuring stories on 9/11, gold bugs (it can only go up) and all sorts of unsubstantiated conspiracies. I stopped following right there and then.
However, during the last two months I've noticed that a lot of important stories are ONLY featured on ZH. They've also managed to dial down on pure crap so I started reading it again and it has been a delight. If you haven't already, then I really suggest you read this piece from ZH:http://www.zerohedge.com/print/404527
Symbolically, yes maybe. But in the end they agreed to let Greece default (they didn't phrase it like that but the credit rating agencies think different, see below)! That's not something positive. All the ratings agencies said they would view extending maturities and/or a bond swap as a credit event which would trigger:
a) downgrades to D (default)
b) CDS payouts (bear in mind that even though European banks are most exposed to Greek debt, US banks sold a LOT of CDS contracts so they're on the hook as well)
Thing is, I don't see the US coming back in the next 10 years. I'm slightly bullish the dollar because after FX is like a giant ping-pong game and right now I see some relief for the dollar with QE ending, risk sentiment down and commodities a bit heavy as well. I view the dollar strength as transitory.
But I get where you're coming from..it's just going to be interesting to see how much they can delay waking up to their reality.The US, just like Greece, has always had it good. The have never had to prioritize because they knew they could always count on someone else to finance their spending. They are now learning that one has to prioritize and if one doesn't have the money, one simply cannot have everything.
The Republicans are all about talking how the US should cut spending but when it comes to actually doing it they don't want to do it. The Democrats are just as foolish, of course. Pushing through a trillion + dollar new healthcare initiative in the face of huge unfunded liabilities and a gaping budget deficit is just beyond me.
Hmm I remember those points being raised a few days back, but I alsp read that the ECB would only give agreement if and only if a means of involving private sector investors could be worked out which would avoid a credit event. I don't know how they will go about doing this, but at this point I can only hope they've done their homework and that such a course of option exists and is viable.
The posts below point to some of the reasons why I'm very skeptical of the euro rally.
1. Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out... And That's IF The Impossible Happens
2. Don’t Forget Greek Implementation Risk
3. "Greece On The Verge Of A Precipice" As A "Lehman-Like" Avalanche Could Be Set In Motion As Soon As Sunday
On top of that we still have
a) Spain whose borrowing costs are going up up and away, see related story here on the longish term prospects for that
b) Ireland, who has just decided to impose a haircut on senior bondholders of two banks. This is something that was categorically ruled out back when Ireland first received the bailout monies and was adamantly denied by the IMF and the ECB. Now the IMF is going along with it. Personally I don't really...
In summary I am mucho-mucho skeptical of the rally. Not holding any positions, though. I'm way too scared to hold anything over the weekend so I'm just waiting for Monday to come.
As far as I know ratings agencies didn't give a hoot about whether the event is voluntary or not, they are going to label it a default in both cases. Now, if Merkel and Sarkozy have made a deal with the ratings agencies then that is an entirely different deal. So far there are no signs of ratings agencies offering any kind of relief (why should they?). They are already suffering from public backlash due to their missed calls during the crisis of 2007-2009 and my guess is they don't want to miss the mark on this one.
PS Did you know that Greece is the lowest rated country on Earth?
eur is a mess; the usd is a mess. depending on what economic bad news get released in what continent, the eur/usd either goes up or down.
today is the usd, tomorrow it is the eur. It has been zigzagging too much for my taste. i am leaving it alone. let is sorts itself out. i like the usd/chf and eur/chf better than the eur/usd.
But like you I rather shy away from EUR/USD and instead opt to express my EUR views on EUR/CHF for weakness and EUR/GBP for strength.There's nothing worse than sleeping through something like this. Oh, wait, there is. Getting up on time and then getting caught between the sellers and the buyers, that's worse.
No probs. Looking forward to your views on events.
Hi Trizle and Bug,
Thank you guys for your answers i still really feel like a puppy all 3and half years i waisted only on technical analysis in trading. Lol i can do all technical stuff now but fundies i am still a little fish. For now i keep on reading your guys stuff and keep in touch with the orderflow thread. For a longtime i was away from forexfactory and recently i think 2 or 3 months i came back to it.
I found that you 2 guys knowing what you doing and a couple of others. Most here on the forum a heros dont metion thread names but if you go price ....ev then you probally know what i mean. I met when i first started a verry good trader he traded only macro fundamental he didnt traded much but when he traded he scaled in like hell and made nice returns. I was at that point still mr technicall i believed technicalls is the best lol.
I am profitable in my trading and like to keep it simple now all those elliot wave analysis etc to much and you can't predict the market i founded out you can only mark reference point on a charts where a change is that the market would turn in to the original trend or when lucky a counter but i try to ignore those the most these days.
1 thing i noticed in my trading journal was that most trades i lost was because trading against the sentiment for the current day for example risk on risk off.
So thats my goal to learn now also to spent less time behind the screens in all those years i spent thousands of hours reading watching charts etc. I really like the market but i think to have a decent life next to it is also important also i came lately to believe what treuly drives the market is macrofundamental and not elliot wave or whatever.So i hope to be at a point also that i do...
I hear that. It really sucks when you're on the wrong end of the orderflow. . . It will prove you wrong real quick.
lolThe news had amazing timing. Friday, and everyone's short with defensive orders below. When we had our drop from ECB I asked myself what the touchiest subject would be ahead of the meetings. The awnser was clear, voluntary participation of debt roll overs. Trichet just left everyone hanging when he said the ECB wasn't down for involuntary rollovers or rolling over their own debt. Credit agencies came out after that saying they would consider anything involuntary to be a default. This news breaks and the subject gets hit. It made for an excellent...
This certainly isn't decisive though. I'll be tuning in on those meetings for sure. If things go right a sick long could be had. There's been nothing but shit coming out of the US. Don't forget those rate hikes that got shorted. Could make for a massive "risk on" day.
It's the contrarian trades that get me going.
This is my current position on the matter, flat. This is a very dynamic situation and will need to be watched carefully. I do believe some amazing trade opportunities will present themselves in the future.
And with the massive unwinding that can happen, I'm sure we won't be late to the party to ride the ensuing volatility..perhaps I was getting a bit excited ahead of things which made me want to jump in with a short from the get-go..but that would be punting! 
I don't see any worth jumping into right now though.Scenario analysis will be vital.
