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Trades based on Market Geometry and Price Action

  • #901
  • Jun 17, 2011 3:37pm Jun 17, 2011 3:37pm
Hey guys,

Great thread have been reading yesterday and today and just joined as a member. Just wanted to know your opinions on Gold. I went short and the trade has gone against me.

Comex have lowered the margin rate of Gold from Tuesday onwards which suggest it could be moving up. What do you the best strategy is for Monday.

Should I

(a) Sell and take a loss
(b) Hold and hope the market shorts Gold so they can build new positions at lower margins on Tuesday?

Thanks
  • #902
  • Jun 17, 2011 3:41pm Jun 17, 2011 3:41pm
keep trying. you will find your way. And when you will look back past the few years you were struggling, you will never regret having made these efforts...
watch these videos they can help you

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  • #903
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:55pm Jun 17, 2011 4:55pm
thanks, ive seen the last 2 before...i think in equal ranges rather then fibo...also don't like to redraw my pivots all the time because i look at so many pairs...i have more time on my hands these days but normally its tough for me to be around for the high volume sessions because of where i live and work (westcoast canada), so ive been trying to develop my strategy without relying on the momentum of daily sessions...i understand the market moves from equilibrium to disequilibrium within a certain range...starting to think the higher probability trades are ones that are taken back in the direction of the equilibrium point...need to fit it together in a way that suits my schedule
  • #904
  • Jun 17, 2011 5:09pm Jun 17, 2011 5:09pm
that's good. as you are a bit busy, try to see if you can use 8hr candles instead of 4hr or 1hr candles...just a suggestion
  • #905
  • Jun 17, 2011 5:21pm Jun 17, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting dailyking
that's good. as you are a bit busy, try to see if you can use 8hr candles instead of 4hr or 1hr candles...just a suggestion
yeh i tried to find a good period converter for mt4 so i could use 8hr candles but the best ones are offline charts...i will probably switch to mt5 eventually because of that, but need to reprogram so the indicators i use work there...

here is what is going through my head atm to why that silver trade you took did not work out...if anything i think it was ready for buyers after the 4hr close above the lower quarter of the range
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  • #906
  • Jun 17, 2011 5:30pm Jun 17, 2011 5:30pm
but i was looking at some set up on the weekly. i think gold was the best for long, but did not want to play it because of the small ranging bars up there...

i'm heading out now for a couple of hours... i need some rest. did not really sleep tonight...
thx ttyl.
  • #907
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:22am Jun 18, 2011 12:22am
Quoting dailyking
still you will need to trade with the trend in order to maximize profits. But learning markets turning points will give you an edge. And true edge comes from higher time frames. you are doing good by using intra day charts to trade but this is not sufficient to chart efficiently the market. The best market road map lies in the heart of long term charts. learn that, spend hours in front of your charts, you will discover many things. Even yesterday, i discovered something new, i immediately used to confirm my trend direction for the eur/gbp trade...what...
So true - I too am down on the week because I keep trading the 5 min/15 min charts instead of concentrating on the "big picture" (longer time frames)!!

I was wondering if GBPUSD has formed a "double bottom" on the daily chart as well as yesterday there was a big "deficit" in trading range of more then 100 pips compared to the EURUSD. Considering the currencies are correlated, could be a good rise in cable next week Monday and Tuesday? Up to 16300 perhaps? RSI on 4hr chart looks quite bullish.

BTW I definately will be constantly checking in here from now on - need to start winning and stop losing!

rgds
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  • #908
  • Jun 18, 2011 1:38am Jun 18, 2011 1:38am
Quoting RealDeal
Hey guys,

Great thread have been reading yesterday and today and just joined as a member. Just wanted to know your opinions on Gold. I went short and the trade has gone against me.

Comex have lowered the margin rate of Gold from Tuesday onwards which suggest it could be moving up. What do you the best strategy is for Monday.

Should I

(a) Sell and take a loss
(b) Hold and hope the market shorts Gold so they can build new positions at lower margins on Tuesday?

Thanks
how much were you willing to risk on the trade before you got in? where is your stop? let that take you out...my view on gold, buyers are in control atm, could continue to move up next week...right now i would wait for some consolidation above 154275 then maybe sellers will step in
  • #909
  • Jun 18, 2011 1:51am Jun 18, 2011 1:51am
Quoting jmtini
So true - I too am down on the week because I keep trading the 5 min/15 min charts instead of concentrating on the "big picture" (longer time frames)!!

I was wondering if GBPUSD has formed a "double bottom" on the daily chart as well as yesterday there was a big "deficit" in trading range of more then 100 pips compared to the EURUSD. Considering the currencies are correlated, could be a good rise in cable next week Monday and Tuesday? Up to 16300 perhaps? RSI on 4hr chart looks quite bullish.

BTW I definately will be constantly checking...
gb us is around a good buying area from my view atm
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  • #910
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:58am Jun 18, 2011 2:58am
i haven't done my analysis yet. but i think buying gbp/usd at the beginning of the week is good. but you need to keep in mind that the trend is on the short side. so you can grab some quick buy scalp, keeping in mind that the trend could reverse against you anytime, and prepare to go with it too...
  • #911
  • Jun 18, 2011 3:03am Jun 18, 2011 3:03am
Hi RealDeal,
for me gold is up. the weekly shows a bullish trend. waiting for a retracement on the 1hr-4hr before entering the trade would be a good idea. but be careful, on the daily chart, they are a lot of ranging candle in this zone...

  • #912
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:37am Jun 18, 2011 4:37am
here is the long and short term trends of the gbp/usd. if you are a good scalper, you can profit from this daily retracement which is an up trend on samller time frames. But, you also need to monitor the long term trend to spot the reversal, and maximize entry point. So that you can also maximize your profit.
the long term is bearish, and short term bullish. both will meet and reverse at the same time...

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  • #913
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:50am Jun 18, 2011 4:50am
long term look bearish. but short term also shows a nice bullish uptrend, we took yesterday for quite nice profit. this week will bring in some retracement before going up in the direction of the short term...while playing the short term up trend momentum, we need to keep an eye on the long term possible reversal...
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  • #914
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:02am Jun 18, 2011 5:02am
short term opportunity on the chf/jpy chart. the weekly chart is showing a bearish turn, supported by the 4 hr chart. now, what we have to do is to wait patiently for the retracement, and enter the trade.
no rush needed here. Because, if you are right, and too early in your trade, the you aill be wrong....

cheers
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  • #915
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:19am Jun 18, 2011 5:19am
bullish continuation on eur/usd before the reversal. as the weekly is showing some up trend bullish continuation, we have to take advantage of it. And later on play with the big picture....

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  • #916
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:11am Jun 18, 2011 6:11am
dont know if you trade au nz but what do you think? looks like its ready to move down again to me
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  • #917
  • Jun 18, 2011 8:47am Jun 18, 2011 8:47am
Quoting dailyking
here is the long and short term trends of the gbp/usd. if you are a good scalper, you can profit from this daily retracement which is an up trend on samller time frames. But, you also need to monitor the long term trend to spot the reversal, and maximize entry point. So that you can also maximize your profit.
the long term is bearish, and short term bullish. both will meet and reverse at the same time...

Yes, absolutely agree. Wonder if this week will follow same pattern as last week? Bullish Monday and Tuesday and possible reversal Wednesday or Thursday.

Just wondered what you think could be a realistic target, maybe 16300/16350?
Interesting that 1 hr candles just passing through the "cloud" so 16200/20 could be a key level to break overnight then upwards to 16300
possible entry around 16205? I see that the 1 hr vegas tunnel (descending trendline) is coming in at around 16250/60 so I suppose if price action shoots through there it would indicate a very bullish scenario.

rgds
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  • #918
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:46am Jun 18, 2011 9:46am
i'm learning the behavior of this pair. But from what i see now. the long term is short..still we have some bullish opportunities with this retracement. you have to wait for an intra day retracement, go bullish, and then switch back with the overall general trend.
cheers

what i don't like in this pair is that it is too correlated to the Australian dollar...
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  • #919
  • Jun 18, 2011 10:30am Jun 18, 2011 10:30am
do not take all these analyses for perfect science. the market is based on human behavior, and our behavior changes every minutes, as well as our mind..play carefully the market, and only select the best trading set ups that fit your personality...
a 2nd analysis will be completed tomorrow

  • #920
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:16pm Jun 18, 2011 5:16pm
us ch ready for sellers? would like to see what d king has to say
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