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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #241
  • Mar 16, 2006 12:07pm Mar 16, 2006 12:07pm
Quoting vishalshan
03/16/2006 at 9.45am est..

Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
Vishalshan keep posting your observations...i think that's a great idea...i'm seeing what you're seeing...thanks...
  • #242
  • Mar 16, 2006 12:55pm Mar 16, 2006 12:55pm
EURUSD is close to the 3rd fib and ready maybe tomorrow but,lucky me I get to stay up all night at work so I'll be keeping an eye on this one!


EURGBP not only near the first fib it is also at the extreme of the monthly channel for resistance.Could be a swing on this one short tonight also.
  • #243
  • Mar 17, 2006 7:06am Mar 17, 2006 7:06am
Any coment on EUR/USD?? near the 3erd fib..and going down taking the 50% of today range??
  • #244
  • Mar 17, 2006 7:18am Mar 17, 2006 7:18am
03/17/2006 at 10.15am est..

Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
Attached Image
  • #245
  • Mar 17, 2006 7:29am Mar 17, 2006 7:29am
Quoting vishalshan
03/17/2006 at 10.15am est..

Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
Wow shan.. your table is evolving.. Thanks..
  • #246
  • Mar 17, 2006 8:05am Mar 17, 2006 8:05am
Next week is setting up to be as green as St. Patrick's day
  • #247
  • Mar 17, 2006 8:34am Mar 17, 2006 8:34am
vishalshan-



Thanks for posting your observations! It is nice to know that I have set my charting up correctly and our results are matching up.





General Question for anyone in the forum:



I am working on a demo account and have been patiently waiting for the first trade(s). It looks like there are a few really good trades shaping up. I am just curious to know, if the targeted fibs are not breached, but the price starts turning the other way, are trades made on the VWB, assuming that the price was close to the targeted fib? I am new to this model and it looks spectacular. Thanks in advance for any and all information!!



Larry
  • #248
  • Mar 17, 2006 9:09am Mar 17, 2006 9:09am
Quoting MrMajik
Next week is setting up to be as green as St. Patrick's day
If it gets any greener than this week, I might just wet my pants. lol
  • #249
  • Edited Mar 19, 2006 11:20pm Mar 17, 2006 9:56am | Edited Mar 19, 2006 11:20pm
my demo's brought in just over 10% gain this green week. I'm a happy camper... and Irish too!
Lots of green beer flowing at my family's gatherings as a child growing up with
three sets of grandparents right off the "boat".

-----------------------------------------------
This is a silly "Duh" post script...my cheeks are rosy red from embarasement... You wanna know "how" my demo account went up 10%? I just realized that the pips in demo were worth $10 each!!! LOL. So much for good money management. I still had some fun trades no mater what the pips were worth and learned alot!
  • #250
  • Mar 17, 2006 9:58am Mar 17, 2006 9:58am
Quoting Anpar
If it gets any greener than this week, I might just wet my pants. lol
Be prepared for next week. Take some of that green loot from this week and stock up on some clean shorts for more of the same next week

This is awesome!
  • #251
  • Mar 17, 2006 10:41am Mar 17, 2006 10:41am
Quoting lmcarlton
vishalshan-



Thanks for posting your observations! It is nice to know that I have set my charting up correctly and our results are matching up.


General Question for anyone in the forum:


I am working on a demo account and have been patiently waiting for the first trade(s). It looks like there are a few really good trades shaping up. I am just curious to know, if the targeted fibs are not breached, but the price starts turning the other way, are trades made on the VWB, assuming that the price was close to the targeted fib? I am new to this model and it looks spectacular. Thanks in advance for any and all information!!

Larry
Larry,

When price has breached or closer to target fibs, we take attention. We enter into trade based on clear reversal signals only and not just by the fact that price is near the reversal target.

In my personal opinion, I would like to see as many confirmations for reversals along with target fib like reversal candlestick patterns, Price bar analysis, 4Hr VWB entry signal, trendline support/resistance etc., So the key here is to get proper reversal signals on target fibs. Rushing into trade with just target fibs, we are tearing out the bag of marbles !! Just my view ..

Shan
  • #252
  • Mar 17, 2006 1:02pm Mar 17, 2006 1:02pm
Vishalshan,


In post # 685 of this thread, Vegas indicated that he uses risk model #4 for the GBP/JPY pair.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=46&pp=15

In your chart of your observations above, you indicate that you are looking at risk model #3 for set-ups on this pair.

I am not tying to be critical here, just trying to get accurate information.

Thanks for the awsome work done preparing the chart.

mpotis
"You can make money or you can make excuses, you can't do both". unknown
  • #253
  • Mar 17, 2006 1:32pm Mar 17, 2006 1:32pm
Shan,

Thanks for the information! That makes sense to me; I am all about confidence in entering trades and knowing that the position is going to be a good one.

I like the idea of taking attention and making a wise trade based upon the candlestick formations and technical analysis.



Have a good weekend!



Larry
  • #254
  • Mar 17, 2006 1:38pm Mar 17, 2006 1:38pm
I'm just getting around to disecting the charts in the VWB docs. I'm assuming Vegas went in and put these dots in after the fact, so I'm wondering what criteria some of the bars met to be considered Reversal Bars (RB).

Chart 1.
1) The first dot (A) makes a higher high, and doesn't make a lower low. Is it a good RB candidate because it's a long bar that closes down? Where would you put your entry order? The next bar looks like it just misses retracing 50% (from the close of (A)). Do you put an entry at a 50% retracement and another below the bottom of the bar, and just take the higher entry? (Let's assume you're working and/or sleeping so you can't watch a lower timeframe; you're just trying to make end-of-day decisions based on these charts.)

What makes (A) a good RB that the previous down bar (Z) lacks? Z makes a lower high and lower low, but doesn't move as much.

2) For the bars marked (B) and (D) do you just enter immediately on the open of the next bar, or set an entry order below the RB? If you wait for a retracement with no entry below (B) you'll miss the trade.

3) Assuming the (E) RB is the green bar that makes a low, what makes it a good RB? Why isn't the previous green bar a RB?

4) Why aren't either of the pseudo-crosses marked (G) good RBs?

5) For (F) would you place your stop above the high (green bar) or above the RB? It looks like it gets stopped out. Do you look to re-enter immediately or wait for another touch of the fib line?

That's all for now, but there are a bazillion more charts

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i140/DateRaider/1.jpg
  • #255
  • Mar 17, 2006 2:53pm Mar 17, 2006 2:53pm
Hey Vishalshan, thanks alot for posting your observations.

However I think you are looking at the model with a different perspective than Vegas. Vegas stated to me in an email (and I believe on this forum) that the price has to be at the extreme or above. For example, if its at the extreme and it drifts away with no break down there would be no trade.

Your informative model is showing that its near and your already at the next step of 'looking for a reversal'

I don't mean to imply that what your doing is wrong, but have you been doing good this way?

Thanks!
  • #256
  • Mar 17, 2006 4:16pm Mar 17, 2006 4:16pm
Quoting vishalshan
Rushing into trade with just target fibs, we are tearing out the bag of marbles !! Just my view ..

Shan
And a very good view that is..

The VWB has conditions or rules. And in order to realize its edge, you have to follow the rules.. Otherwise, you're not trading VWB at all.. Also just my view..

Regards,
East
  • #257
  • Mar 17, 2006 4:17pm Mar 17, 2006 4:17pm
Quoting xspowerx
Hey Vishalshan, thanks alot for posting your observations.

Your informative model is showing that its near and your already at the next step of 'looking for a reversal'
I believe what shan is implying is it is time to take note of the pairs that are close to the outer fib because a reversal could be in the near future.

Like many here I can almost taste a reversal before it happens
  • #258
  • Mar 17, 2006 4:19pm Mar 17, 2006 4:19pm
Quoting DateRaider
Chart 1.
What makes (A) a good RB that the previous down bar (Z) lacks? Z makes a lower high and lower low, but doesn't move as much.
For this I have a quick answer: vegas gave a link in stockcharts.com about candlesticks reversals. you may want to check them out..

Regards,
East
  • #259
  • Mar 17, 2006 5:01pm Mar 17, 2006 5:01pm
Quoting MrMajik
I believe what shan is implying is it is time to take note of the pairs that are close to the outer fib because a reversal could be in the near future.

Like many here I can almost taste a reversal before it happens
Ahh ok. It seemed to me like he was jumping to the next step before the last one was complete! Thats good though I like his observation posts they save me alot of time during the busy week.

I can taste it better especially after a nice cold beer on a warm day hahaha.
  • #260
  • Mar 18, 2006 9:51am Mar 18, 2006 9:51am
Quoting xspowerx
Hey Vishalshan, thanks alot for posting your observations.

However I think you are looking at the model with a different perspective than Vegas. Vegas stated to me in an email (and I believe on this forum) that the price has to be at the extreme or above. For example, if its at the extreme and it drifts away with no break down there would be no trade.

Your informative model is showing that its near and your already at the next step of 'looking for a reversal'

I don't mean to imply that what your doing is wrong, but have you been doing good this way?

Thanks!
Xspowerx,

You made a very good point here and helped us to make things clear about my observations. By "Waiting for reversals" yellow signals, I meant that we are close to the extreme fibs and we are interested in the pair to monitor it more closely. Since we are tracking around 9 currencies, I thought it would be better if we get ready early enough.

While going with the reversal signals, I'm not completely following the 3 concepts of Vegas reversals. I'm paying more attention to candle pattern formation, price action (as gained from Jim's thread) and relay on trendline resistance/support. I personally feel I'm comfortable picking the reversal signals this way which is purely discretionary approach. Vegas also somes times enter VWB trades based on discretionary approach which will be very tough to pen down the rules. I might have a complete different blend of bag of marbles but I'm more comfortable this way since I consider VWB is a model and it would work better if you trade the way you are more confident about.

I also hope everyone looking at my observations, take this as attention signals and not actual entry signals. I would always suggest them to use their own analysis to decide whether to enter or when to enter.

Thanks for bringing this up,
Shan
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