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Reminiscences of A Forex Speculator

  • #101
  • Jun 11, 2011 3:12pm Jun 11, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya lolpie,

I'm currently doing a Joint Major in Physiology and Mathematics..couldn't pick between them so I thought what the heck find a way to get the best of both worlds.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

Nice. I did my undergrad in biochemistry; and my masters in chemical engineering. keep up the good work.
  • #102
  • Jun 11, 2011 8:59pm Jun 11, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting dddd
Nice. I did my undergrad in biochemistry; and my masters in chemical engineering. keep up the good work.
I'm finishing up my undergrad in IT with a concentration in IT Security, graduate next semester :nerd:
  • #103
  • Jun 15, 2011 4:34pm Jun 15, 2011 4:34pm
After coping with some massive jetlag, I have taken an entire day to plug myself back into the newsfeeds and articles, switched over to OANDA, and now feel ready to devote the next few weeks to getting some serious trading done. I'm also trying to get some serious reading done as I won't have time when school starts again in September or even when I go back home for holidays next month!

I have a potential short order set in EUR/USD, which I'm patiently hoping will be hit so that I can play the bearish sentiment and EuroZone troubles brewing until the end of the week. Next week is certainly going to be a busy week, not only due to Greece, but because it seems Ireland wants to step into the spotlight by desiring to impose haircuts on senior bondholders. This would be OK if they previously agreed not to with the ECB, who then set up liquidity facilities for their banks based on this agreement...waiting for a response from the ECB now. What is it they said about biting the hand that feeds you?

Will update if the order gets filled.

Quoting dddd
Nice. I did my undergrad in biochemistry; and my masters in chemical engineering. keep up the good work.
Quoting lolpie
I'm finishing up my undergrad in IT with a concentration in IT Security, graduate next semester :nerd:
Sweet! Still have a couple years to go but I'll be joining you guys with a fancy piece of paper soon!

Good trading,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #104
  • Jun 15, 2011 11:19pm Jun 15, 2011 11:19pm
Execution wasn't the best, as I was have supposed to have been in from that little overextended run just before 20:00. However, I'm pleased it was eventually filled after much teasing.

I'm looking to use this to play the bearish Euro Sentiment and uncertainty underpinning the Eurozone Peripheries right now, but this is a shorter term position which will last a week tops. I'm also looking to see if I can establish a position on EUR/CHF ahead of 1.2000, as I feel more comfortable having 2+ entries, as it allows me to close one out to mitigate any event risks which I'm unsure of. The market may be interested in targetting the May's lows in EUR/USD though...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #105
  • Jun 15, 2011 11:53pm Jun 15, 2011 11:53pm
Half of the risk taken off at R/R 1:1 to give a breakeven trade, which I'll let run.

This was my first live trade. What a quickie!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #106
  • Jun 16, 2011 12:47am Jun 16, 2011 12:47am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'm also looking to see if I can establish a position on EUR/CHF ahead of 1.2000, as I feel more comfortable having 2+ entries, as it allows me to close one out to mitigate any event risks which I'm unsure of.
Well there goes my hopes for that! Guess my only other alternative is to try to get a position ahead of the May Low's via 1.4000. Looks like it's going to be a long day.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #107
  • Jun 16, 2011 12:31pm Jun 16, 2011 12:31pm
Position established in EUR/CHF. Hoping that it won't be long before 1.2000 is hit to make this a break even trade...the lows at 1.1940 should be a larger market target.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #108
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:42pm Jun 16, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Position established in EUR/CHF. Hoping that it won't be long before 1.2000 is hit to make this a break even trade...the lows at 1.1940 should be a larger market target.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Nice work! I thought about you and your EURCHF order when I saw the guys at forexlive mention the 1.20 level being retaken. I guess you're going to be sitting on your hands and watching the pair for some time, eh? Let it mature and all.

You mentioned you were going to be doing some reading this summer. I have a suggestion for you - The Fearful Rise of Markets. This is not a book about how to trade so it won't directly increase your bottom line, but it's an excellent read nonetheless. If you want to understand the way markets work these days it's a very good addition to your library. It tells the story of how banks lost their clients to index funds, money market funds, how the BRICs were born etc. and what all of this has contributed to.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #109
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:01pm Jun 16, 2011 3:01pm
Hi Trizzle and Bug,

I am trying to understand lately to understand the macro fundies and apply them in my trading.

Before i ignorred a lot about them i wonder what you guys recomend or what you mostly read i do now the most at danske bank.

Also i have a question how you guys play those option barriers what is a way how to play them?

1 more thing Trizzle what is it you watching on the 20 th of june?


Thanks guys happy pips for you.


regards Ingmar.
  • #110
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:10pm Jun 16, 2011 3:10pm
ingmarforex
I dont' trade options nor do I take them into account (usually). For me they are only important when an important round number is in the way and traders are going to try to run the barrier down (the bank who sold the barrier option would try to defend it on the spot market if the option premium was big enough).

As far as other things are concerned I'm afraid you would have to provide questions, because it is really difficult and time-consuming to try to explain EVERYTHING. I don't have it all mapped out and indexed in my brain so that would be a very difficult task indeed. Shoot us with your questions and we'll try to answer them.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #111
  • Jun 16, 2011 5:28pm Jun 16, 2011 5:28pm
Quoting bug
Nice work! I thought about you and your EURCHF order when I saw the guys at forexlive mention the 1.20 level being retaken. I guess you're going to be sitting on your hands and watching the pair for some time, eh? Let it mature and all.
Heya bug,

Good to see you around these parts again. I was indeed planning on holding it to let it mature, but when I sat and saw price was hesitant to get back down there, with possible short covering and a slight easing of tension, I decided to cut the position when it retraced back to the entry. Didn't have a good feeling about it. Same thing with EUR/USD but at least I was able to book some gains on that one.

Quote
You mentioned you were going to be doing some reading this summer. I have a suggestion for you - The Fearful Rise of Markets. This is not a book about how to trade so it won't directly increase your bottom line, but it's an excellent read nonetheless. If you want to understand the way markets work these days it's a very good addition to your library. It tells the story of how banks lost their clients to index funds, money market funds, how the BRICs were born etc. and what all of this has contributed to.

Oohh sounds like a thriller! Only read the reviews but it sounds like it could provide some good inspiration on how to structure a trade to capitalize on the popping of the Gold Bubble..something which has been on my mind for quite some time. Added to the list!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #112
  • Jun 16, 2011 5:38pm Jun 16, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Hi Trizzle and Bug,

I am trying to understand lately to understand the macro fundies and apply them in my trading.

Before i ignorred a lot about them i wonder what you guys recomend or what you mostly read i do now the most at danske bank
Heya ingmarforex,

That's a good course of action, as I definitely think it helps give you a leg-up over participants who ignore such information. Admittedly, I'd like to improve on my knowledge of economics and macro as well, since it's not where I want it to be as yet (I've only read bits and pieces here and there..time to sit down with a good book I got recently).

Until recently I used ScotiaBank FX, Daily Pfennig and some UBS reports, but since bug recommended Danske Bank, I find it covers most bases quite succintly. Especially their Weekly Reports.

Quote
.Also i have a question how you guys play those option barriers what is a way how to play them?
It really depends on what's going on in the market, but usually I'd want to push into them when I'd get the inkling that it was within the market's grasp. Sometimes though it isn't a bad idea to fade them, especially if it would help initiate a position for longer term objectives.

Quote
1 more thing Trizzle what is it you watching on the 20 th of june?
The event I'm watching is the emergency meeting of the Finance Ministers (and now the IMF) in Brussels regarding how to involve private creditors in the bailout. I believe it was originally scheduled for the 20th of June, but I'm hearing talk that it may be moved to the 19th instead, so I'll watch both days. This event may be the inflexion point for the next couple weeks. Something else to keep in mind is the meeting of Merkel and Sarkozy tomorrow, as it may give clues to how the situation will be handled.


Good trading,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #113
  • Jun 17, 2011 2:16am Jun 17, 2011 2:16am
Had some internet troubles last night so was unable to take a bounce trade in EUR/USD which would have looked simply marvellous!

Ah well there's more where that came from! I get the feeling that next week is going to bring about an uncanny change in sentiment if this weekend goes well.

Going to take the day off from trading to get some Reminiscences of A Stock Operator done, but will be lightly paying attention to the newsfeed.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #114
  • Jun 17, 2011 6:17am Jun 17, 2011 6:17am
Realized I said I would take a break from the charts today, but I saw the opportunity to get a little feeder stake on EUR/GBP which I had been anticipating since last week, and decided to structure a trade around it.

Let's see how it pans out.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #115
  • Jun 17, 2011 9:24am Jun 17, 2011 9:24am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Had some internet troubles last night so was unable to take a bounce trade in EUR/USD which would have looked simply marvellous!
I took it, but on the wrong side, though.
I faded the upmove due to the overall negative sentiment and widening spreads on Greek debt only to learn later that there was a rumor of a bigger than expected bailout package (EUR 150 as opposed to 120). I only have Dow Jones Newswire and it's pretty much useless when it comes to stuff like this. Instead I usually rely on forexlive to deliver then news they see on Reuters/Bloomberg, but for some reason they have hired this new fellow who just sits there and doesn't publish the news (probably too busy trading himself I guess). Finally I dug it up from zero hedge's twitter stream. Still up for the week which is good but not good enough.

From my perspective nothing has changed and nothing will change, weekend or no weekend UNLESS a new bailout is agreed upon. Today's Merkel and Sarko 'agreement' contained no real solutions only rhetoric which we've seen before. It also looks like credit markets may start to freeze again (Libor-OIS spread is up), mind you there have only been minor movements up to now but this might change rapidly. The biggest elephant in the shop is still the US Fed and I see no signs of them pushing for another QE program. It would take some asset deflation and continued economic weakness for them to find the courage to do it again. In short it looks to me like we're in for more EUR weakness and USD strength.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #116
  • Jun 17, 2011 9:46am Jun 17, 2011 9:46am
Heya bug,

Quoting bug
I took it, but on the wrong side, though.
I faded the upmove due to the overall negative sentiment and widening spreads on Greek debt only to learn later that there was a rumor of a bigger than expected bailout package (EUR 150 as opposed to 120). I only have Dow Jones Newswire and it's pretty much useless when it comes to stuff like this.
With a jittery market, something like that was bound to induce some quick short covering! Funny thing is it came off this not-very-official-looking site..guess when people are nervous..they're nervous! Yep, sentiment is overall negative, but moving into the weekend is markedly eased compared to earlier this week.

Quote
Instead I usually rely on forexlive to deliver then news they see on Reuters/Bloomberg, but for some reason they have hired this new fellow who just sits there and doesn't publish the news (probably too busy trading himself I guess). Finally I dug it up from zero hedge's twitter stream.

I knew it sounded like you in the Comments section! Didn't know ZH actually used to carry that kind of relevant information..I thought it was all fiat, XAG, XAU, BFTD. Guess I'll have to take a closer peek at this odd place..

Quote
Still up for the week which is good but not good enough.

Profit's always good.

Quote
From my perspective nothing has changed and nothing will change, weekend or no weekend UNLESS a new bailout is agreed upon. Today's Merkel and Sarko 'agreement' contained no real solutions only rhetoric which we've seen before. It also looks like credit markets may start to freeze again (Libor-OIS spread is up), mind you there have only been minor movements up to now but this might change rapidly.

I had a long sit down and thought about this, and in my view the fact that Merkel and Sarkozy were able to somewhat come to what seems to be an agreement is quite a noteworthy feat. I'm thinking the market interpreted it symbolically as opposed to substantially, as the real brunt of the negotiations will be on Sunday and Monday.

If anything, Merkel's recent change of heart may prove to be an inkling that some kind of vague agreement can be reached, with the details of private sector involvement to be worked out later down the line in 'kick-the-can-down-the-road-clunk-clunk' fashion. I get the feeling this would spur a major sigh of relief and the only remaining event risk would be that of the Greek Parliament pushing through the needed reforms. That I'm not not too sure about..that long article about Greece and the Monks still makes me uneasy about putting my confidence in these guys.Hopefully my position will be at BE by then..

Quote
The biggest elephant in the shop is still the US Fed and I see no signs of them pushing for another QE program. It would take some asset deflation and continued economic weakness for them to find the courage to do it again. In short it looks to me like we're in for more EUR weakness and USD strength.

Definitely with you on this one. I definitely see the US making a comeback in H2 if things progress as they do. I'd appreciate it if the falling Oil prices of late aren't 'transitory' . I'm eyeing EUR strength as the month ends moving into the next one based on participants pricing in an impending rate hike. I chose to play this on GBP instead of USD because like you, I'm wary of US strength, but in contrast, GBP actually has zilch going for it for some time to come. I'm actually in England right now, and you can feel the bearish sentiment in the air - taxi drivers know it best!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #117
  • Jun 17, 2011 10:11am Jun 17, 2011 10:11am
I would been all over the euro If I was awake. I've been waiting for this. Every one was short.

I'm at work right now and on my phone so I can't get to in depth. But I had this on my list when I last did scenario analysis. Good stuff.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #118
  • Jun 17, 2011 10:11am Jun 17, 2011 10:11am
Quote
With a jittery market, something like that was bound to induce some quick short covering! Funny thing is it came off this not-very-official-looking site..guess when people are nervous..they're nervous! Yep, sentiment is overall negative, but moving into the weekend is markedly eased compared to earlier this week.
I took the possibility of short covering into account and I was long the first 50 pips of the way up. Since the morning hours had been dominated by bad news I started fading it aggressively. Didn't work out too good. Had I known what was going on I wouldn't have faded it. Stupid Dow Jones Newswire.

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I knew it sounded like you in the Comments section! Didn't know ZH actually used to carry that kind of relevant information..I thought it was all fiat, XAG, XAU, BFTD. Guess I'll have to take a closer peek at this odd place..
That was me alright (if you're referring to the spread story). Actually I started reading ZH when it had just a few hundred RSS followers. It was on the blogger platform and it was top-notch news. About half a year later it started featuring stories on 9/11, gold bugs (it can only go up) and all sorts of unsubstantiated conspiracies. I stopped following right there and then. However, during the last two months I've noticed that a lot of important stories are ONLY featured on ZH. They've also managed to dial down on pure crap so I started reading it again and it has been a delight. If you haven't already, then I really suggest you read this piece from ZH:http://www.zerohedge.com/print/404527

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I had a long sit down and thought about this, and in my view the fact that Merkel and Sarkozy were able to somewhat come to what seems to be an agreement is quite a noteworthy feat.
Symbolically, yes maybe. But in the end they agreed to let Greece default (they didn't phrase it like that but the credit rating agencies think different, see below)! That's not something positive. All the ratings agencies said they would view extending maturities and/or a bond swap as a credit event which would trigger:
a) downgrades to D (default)
b) CDS payouts (bear in mind that even though European banks are most exposed to Greek debt, US banks sold a LOT of CDS contracts so they're on the hook as well)

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Definitely with you on this one. I definitely see the US making a comeback in H2 if things progress as they do.
Thing is, I don't see the US coming back in the next 10 years. I'm slightly bullish the dollar because after FX is like a giant ping-pong game and right now I see some relief for the dollar with QE ending, risk sentiment down and commodities a bit heavy as well. I view the dollar strength as transitory. The US, just like Greece, has always had it good. The have never had to prioritize because they knew they could always count on someone else to finance their spending. They are now learning that one has to prioritize and if one doesn't have the money, one simply cannot have everything. The Republicans are all about talking how the US should cut spending but when it comes to actually doing it they don't want to do it. The Democrats are just as foolish, of course. Pushing through a trillion + dollar new healthcare initiative in the face of huge unfunded liabilities and a gaping budget deficit is just beyond me.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #119
  • Jun 17, 2011 10:28am Jun 17, 2011 10:28am
Nice way to end the week with the EUR/GBP trading hitting R/R 1:1 to give a breakeven trade. Was quite pleased that I at least got the feeder stake on..now I can get back to being picky with the entries! All up to Greece now....oh boy..

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #120
  • Jun 17, 2011 10:29am Jun 17, 2011 10:29am
Quoting Tact1cal
I would been all over the euro If I was awake. I've been waiting for this. Every one was short.
I KNOW RIGHT!?

Quote
I'm at work right now and on my phone so I can't get to in depth. But I had this on my list when I last did scenario analysis. Good stuff.

No probs. Looking forward to your views on events.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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