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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,921
  • Jun 15, 2011 5:24pm Jun 15, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting tgwhbb
current plan on the chart. backfill very possible. red line is my SL, green line below is my buy limit. note the WIBLx2, if price gets there, monthly still one-timeframing down...
I interpret the monthly profiles different. "one timing" as in the "profiles", meanining the profiles as in example picture monthly profile have been "one timing up" imo. However you can be "one timeframing" with the bars in other picture of monthly profile the 4h bars are " onetimeframing" down. if you were to look at the monthly or daily bar chart we have not been onetimeframing on the monthly bar charts either. but imo technically the only "onetimeframing" down is in the daily lower tf charts.

One-timeframing: A trending situation where in an uptrend, the low of the previous auction in a Market Profile is not broken to the downside by greater than 2 tics or the low of the previous bar on a bar chart is not broken to the downside. At the same time, the high of the previous auction in a Market Profile or the high of the previous bar on a bar chart is normally equaled or exceeded. (It is possible that the high is not reached—the determinant is that the low is not taken out to the downside.) As this situation occurs over multiple bars we identify it as “one-timeframing’. The inverse applies in downward trending situation. One timeframing is applicable to all timeframes, from a monthly chart to the shortest timeframe Market Profile auctions intraday.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,922
  • Jun 15, 2011 7:30pm Jun 15, 2011 7:30pm
Well, YPOC is now 1.4192...and 1st SD is 1.3692 and 1.4692
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,923
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:08pm Jun 15, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting mzvega
I interpret the monthly profiles different. "one timing" as in the "profiles", meanining the profiles as in example picture monthly profile have been "one timing up" imo. However you can be "one timeframing" with the bars in other picture of monthly profile the 4h bars are " onetimeframing" down. if you were to look at the monthly or daily bar chart we have not been onetimeframing on the monthly bar charts either. but imo technically the only "onetimeframing" down is in the daily lower tf charts.
you are right, i explained poorly. What i meant to say is that if price makes it to WIBLx2 (1.3966), then and only then would EU be one-timeframing down on the monthly. Until that happens, EU is currently no longer one-timeframing up on monthly, but has not started one-timeframing down either. So EU is currently not one-timeframing at all on that timeframe. It is however one-timeframing down on the weekly and daily.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,924
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:42pm Jun 15, 2011 10:42pm
Claudia, a thought regarding the back fill possibility. From your weekly and monthly profiles, the anomaly you point out sits right on top of a previous POC (a HVN).

anomalies generally need to get revisited in order to repair the structure, which in essence builds up that area. However, in this case that area is already built up, and since EU fell through it today with no bounce or resistance, is that not a sign of a fundamental reorganization of EU (ie akin to a gap, the swift move through that HVN is a form of excess).

I'm not saying a retrace is not possible, in fact the bottom of wednesday's and current Asia profile looks like the start of a short covering on its way, and I think the key will be to watch the 4260 area for clues.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,925
  • Edited 11:42pm Jun 15, 2011 11:38pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Claudia, a thought regarding the back fill possibility. From your weekly and monthly profiles, the anomaly you point out sits right on top of a previous POC (a HVN).

anomalies generally need to get revisited in order to repair the structure, which in essence builds up that area. However, in this case that area is already built up, and since EU fell through it today with no bounce or resistance, is that not a sign of a fundamental reorganization of EU (ie akin to a gap, the swift move through that HVN is a form of excess).

I'm not saying a retrace...
Thanx for the clarification I am not at all well versed in anomalies. I havent had time to go over and diguest the material I do have about it. I felt it was worthy of me tracking PA before & after, when that pattern occurs for future reference. I agree that the 1.4260 is a good place to look for clues
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,926
  • Jun 16, 2011 12:56am Jun 16, 2011 12:56am
It is amazing how you guys are in command of all of this terminology (anomalies, IB, open-drive.....etc).taught by J.Dalton and the most importantly able to apply it...I simply use standard deviations from MP.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,927
  • Jun 16, 2011 7:54am Jun 16, 2011 7:54am
Quoting mima
It is amazing how you guys are in command of all of this terminology (anomalies, IB, open-drive.....etc).taught by J.Dalton and the most importantly able to apply it...I simply use standard deviations from MP.
thanks mima, but if i were able to properly apply the logic at all times, then i'd still be short from Tuesday's high! working on it! albeit i did close my long from late yesterday NY at 4190 at what looks like right before EU tanked some more (just after my last post).

EU currently at a tricky spot where demand is to be expected. weekly POC from 5/22 and May monthly VAL both between 4060 and 4090. Wondering if EU has enough left in it to push through today...waiting for NY C period for some more clues, but currently looks like an open test reverse NY IB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,928
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:12am Jun 16, 2011 8:12am
120 pips in 40 minutes...EU never stops to amaze me ...no I wasn't in
Change is the only constant
  • #2,929
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:59am Jun 16, 2011 8:59am
Quoting tgwhbb
120 pips in 40 minutes...EU never stops to amaze me ...no I wasn't in
We have a balanced europe session, if we have another balanced US session then have to be careful on short bais.

I'm anticipate for an up move, hv an buy order placed at 4204
  • #2,930
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:02am Jun 16, 2011 9:02am
9.30 to 10.00 up bar with thin volume always spell trouble, looks like a trap up move to bring price lower again.
  • #2,931
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:25am Jun 16, 2011 9:25am
I've read through most of the posts. Many of you interpret market profile in a way that price returns back the the value, which is a wrong way to look at MP.

The price is more likely to find a new value area than to return to the previous one. Especially couple of weeks ago when EURUSD collapsed I saw "counter trend" (back to the same value) screenshots which are wrong trades to take.

Cheers
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
  • #2,932
  • Jun 16, 2011 10:43am Jun 16, 2011 10:43am
Quoting ReaM
I've read through most of the posts. Many of you interpret market profile in a way that price returns back the the value, which is a wrong way to look at MP.

The price is more likely to find a new value area than to return to the previous one. Especially couple of weeks ago when EURUSD collapsed I saw "counter trend" (back to the same value) screenshots which are wrong trades to take.

Cheers
welcome ReaM, most of us are still learning the intricacies of MP and trading it, so any input you have is welcomed by posting charts and reasoning.

Thanks!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,933
  • Jun 16, 2011 10:55am Jun 16, 2011 10:55am
Quoting ReaM
I've read through most of the posts. Many of you interpret market profile in a way that price returns back the the value, which is a wrong way to look at MP.

The price is more likely to find a new value area than to return to the previous one. Especially couple of weeks ago when EURUSD collapsed I saw "counter trend" (back to the same value) screenshots which are wrong trades to take.

Cheers
It would be really great if you could post some examples. I have spent much time & a great deal of effort in the last few years, and it concerns me that you suguest theres something twisted in my interpretation of MP/AMT. I pride myself on the fact that I don’t usually post anything that cant be supported by some sort of a “reference”, also I try not to talk to much about trades unless Im willing to put my money on it (in the trade myself) Well this is a great place to post your “interpretation” , or make comments. Your input would be much appreciated, Im always looking for ways to improve my analysis. If you could bring one of these charts & references that I have made to my attention, I would very much like to go over these “wrong trades to take” , again Id like to think that the trades I take have some sort of ”valid” MP/AMT reference. I would love to learn from these mistakes. Im just not sure, where I have went wrong, if you could point them out, I can go over my reasoning for these “bad trades” and possibly the context in which the.trades were taken. Hope to see more posts!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,934
  • Jun 16, 2011 4:33pm Jun 16, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting tgwhbb
thanks mima...
Well yesterday I exited short too early as well...will be another day, another trade...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,935
  • Jun 16, 2011 6:33pm Jun 16, 2011 6:33pm
On M45 chart was ND, at 3rd SD and I entered short 1.4213....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,936
  • Jun 16, 2011 11:03pm Jun 16, 2011 11:03pm
Hi all,

Don't have much time to grab any trade till yesterday as I'm still stuck in japan...

Waited for the news to settle & make an entry during NY....

1:Yesterday Asia P formation suggestion need to balance in London.
2: London balance & fail to take out Asia low with a spring test. Now a spike acceptance is my reference. London inventory was short.
3: Prior to news "A" period got markdown but reverse back up to my reference by "B" period.
4: Market entry was made, risk to trade around 20 pips then.
5: NY session extend all the way above Asia session with a Normal variation day,
6: The 45 degree profile of NY seen shorterm inventory back fill during current Asia session down to close to fair value. Due mainly to short term inventory adjust as previous NY session was stretch

Here would be another good trade location for a pullback low perhaps 4150.

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  • #2,937
  • Jun 17, 2011 5:29am Jun 17, 2011 5:29am
Quoting Evak
Hi all,

Don't have much time to grab any trade till yesterday as I'm still stuck in japan...

Waited for the news to settle & make an entry during NY....

1:Yesterday Asia P formation suggestion need to balance in London.
2: London balance & fail to take out Asia low with a spring test. Now a spike acceptance is my reference. London inventory was short.
3: Prior to news "A" period got markdown but reverse back up to my reference by "B" period.
4: Market entry was made, risk to trade around 20 pips then.
5: NY session extend all the way above...
European open (not UK) see a opening test onto Asia low & bounce with also anomalies spotted during asia session was filled, around 4150 (indicating possible market decision on that level during Asia session, as it pause). Asia inventory was short.

Added position at price reversion back to 4150 or anomalies area seen during Asia.
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  • #2,938
  • Jun 17, 2011 6:58am Jun 17, 2011 6:58am
Welcome back Kave. What are you doing in Japan, cleaning up the mess in Sendai?

I took long at 4152, anticipate for the breakout from those overlap value from yesterday, it work out well. Let see how our wall street brother field of vision.

The intermediate pull back might ended at 4070 and the attempt direction to 4945 is head on.

Again the magic question, in order to get there, we need to use the same strategy to pick good trading location to be at the edge against your competitor.

To me that is to buy at every pull back when price is out side (or below value.
  • #2,939
  • Jun 17, 2011 1:21pm Jun 17, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Evak
Hi all,

Don't have much time to grab any trade till yesterday as I'm still stuck in japan...

Waited for the news to settle & make an entry during NY....

1:Yesterday Asia P formation suggestion need to balance in London.
2: London balance & fail to take out Asia low with a spring test. Now a spike acceptance is my reference. London inventory was short.
3: Prior to news "A" period got markdown but reverse back up to my reference by "B" period.
4: Market entry was made, risk to trade around 20 pips then.
5: NY session extend all...
I noticed the 45 degree comment on JD's blog the other day referring to short covering, quite interesting.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,940
  • Jun 17, 2011 2:30pm Jun 17, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting alexm
Welcome back Kave. What are you doing in Japan, cleaning up the mess in Sendai?

I took long at 4152, anticipate for the breakout from those overlap value from yesterday, it work out well. Let see how our wall street brother field of vision.

The intermediate pull back might ended at 4070 and the attempt direction to 4945 is head on.

Again the magic question, in order to get there, we need to use the same strategy to pick good trading location to be at the edge against your competitor.

To me that is to buy at every pull back when price is out...
Work & also social visit as i have relatives there too. May not be participating the in the Volunteer as they seems to have loads of ppl now involve & it would be a crowd as was advised. There are still refugees in the makeshift camps in the schools, & up there is still a big mass that has not been cleared..

Anyway just curious how u took your trade off the break out of the value area...

Cheers!
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