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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,121
  • Jun 15, 2011 8:28pm Jun 15, 2011 8:28pm
a good place to short would have been just below the low of the test.
MTM - "any testing that does not respond immediatly with higher prices or certainly during the next day or so , can be considered an indication of weakness. If it were a true sign of strength the specialist or market maker would have stepped in and would have been buying the market."

Quoting KinsaleForex
On the left of the chart you can see a nice short set up Just after the news this morning. I did see this before leaving for work but hesitated. Kicking myself now!

The main area I wish to talk about is Trigger 2 and D. At D we see the trigger again respected and what looks like a perfect test. I was around long enough to see this phase unfold and remember thinking "If i was home now, i would definitely buy that". My thought process was that it had respected the trigger a few times and this would be the test and bounce that was needed to go long....
  • #21,122
  • Jun 15, 2011 8:47pm Jun 15, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting apple_sauce
a good place to short would have been just below the low of the test.
MTM - "any testing that does not respond immediatly with higher prices or certainly during the next day or so , can be considered an indication of weakness. If it were a true sign of strength the specialist or market maker would have stepped in and would have been buying the market."
I personally would never short a test just like I would never short a NS... but that's just me. SM doesn't sell downbars so why would we want to...

In this chart example the low was taken out by the next bar but look at it... it closed on the trigger level on increased volume with the next bar up... effort to fall, 2 bar reversal of sorts into the trigger taking out the high within 2 bars... nothing worth shorting there and then we get another NS...

Now the trend was down for the day and the only possible SOS was that bar 2 possible selling climax. Now there was not much reaction off this bar but we did get a move away and then a return to test. However we returned and tested this bar mutliple times with lackluster rections and continuing SOW in the background after that bar 2 SOS.

Now it is correct that a failed test is a SOW and it should also be noted that tests carry the most weight when we have mulitple SOS in the background which we have but in this case not enough (only 1). The other place where tests are more important is after what appears to be SOW in an uptrend as this shows that the weakness was short lived. On this chart there was way more weakness than strength making tests of almost no use... Liam recognized this fact and that it was countertrend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,123
  • Jun 15, 2011 8:56pm Jun 15, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting pipon
Thank you for a great analysis !! Im learing alot from you.
I hope the day that I will have the knowledge/guts to upload my charts and help others is nearing...
Well I hope that your eyes and mind are opening wide to VSA as you follow along... There is lots of information shared in this thread if one takes the time to dig for it.

Find the traders that share their charts whom you like and go back through their posts and charts and uncover all the buried gold...

There are few vetran guys on here worth taking the time to go through all their old stuff.... I spent over a month doing just that when I was learning VSA...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,124
  • Jun 15, 2011 11:29pm Jun 15, 2011 11:29pm
i was looking for short below the break of structure.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post4693079

a no demand confirmed my short order and been riding the whole move down.
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  • #21,125
  • Jun 15, 2011 11:50pm Jun 15, 2011 11:50pm
another no demand
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  • #21,126
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:06am Jun 16, 2011 3:06am
Quoting pres78
I personally would never short a test just like I would never short a NS... but that's just me. SM doesn't sell downbars so why would we want to...

In this chart example the low was taken out by the next bar but look at it... it closed on the trigger level on increased volume with the next bar up... effort to fall, 2 bar reversal of sorts into the trigger taking out the high within 2 bars... nothing worth shorting there and then we get another NS...

Now the trend was down for the day and the only possible SOS was that bar 2 possible selling...
Hey pres great charts from before thanks for uploading.

On the topic of tests in a weak market, I have to disagree that they have almost no use, I think they can be quite telling sometimes. Although like you say I wouldnt take a short off one, and the one in liam's chart showed a move up immediately after it which doesnt help us alot, but in some cases I think they can be very useful. Heres a reference from MTM incase anyones has forgotten about this.
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  • #21,127
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:50am Jun 16, 2011 3:50am
Anyone else have this problem? If so, will this a temporary liquidity glitch?

Well I called the muppets, however they had no idea. Got into an argument instead as the lady was trying to explain to me what tick volume is, and it isnt reliable for trading, instead of giving a proper reason why the fu** the volume isn't there..
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  • #21,128
  • Jun 16, 2011 4:00am Jun 16, 2011 4:00am
Quoting Sonny1
Anyone else have this problem? If so, will this a temporary liquidity glitch?

Well I called the muppets, however they had no idea. Got into an argument instead as the lady was trying to explain to me what tick volume is, and it isnt reliable for trading, instead of giving a proper reason why the fu** the volume isn't there..

Yea pain in the arse, i dunno why its happening, but fxcm demo has pretty good volume id download that for the time being.
  • #21,129
  • Jun 16, 2011 4:30am Jun 16, 2011 4:30am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hey pres great charts from before thanks for uploading.

On the topic of tests in a weak market, I have to disagree that they have almost no use, I think they can be quite telling sometimes. Although like you say I wouldnt take a short off one, and the one in liam's chart showed a move up immediately after it which doesnt help us alot, but in some cases I think they can be very useful. Heres a reference from MTM incase anyones has forgotten about this.
Perhaps of no use was a bad way to phrase it... as we think of a basic test into a high volume trigger it was of no use and there was not enough strength in the BG... we saw just like the example you posted weak, sluggish moves from the trigger / test bar.

Yes the tests in a weak market are telling however the example you posted still doesn't tell you to short a test bar, nor would this have been wise in Liam's case or the example you posted... tests are telling in all markets yes... using them for a short entry I stand by my post and would never personally trade this... this is just my way and my opinion on the matter and to each his own if it fits your trading plan.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,130
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:19am Jun 16, 2011 8:19am
Quoting pres78
I personally would never short a test just like I would never short a NS... but that's just me. SM doesn't sell downbars so why would we want to....
Whilst you would never want to short a test bar, you are forgetting one of the first principles of VSA: Effort vs. Result.
If the market does not give the expected result from a test-increase in prices-the market must actually be weak.

Yesterday there was a perfect example.

As price moved up towards the trigger level, there was a No Buying Pressure bar (the chart says NSP should be NBP). The Chart Mode was SELL. Leaving that aside and thinking just in terms of trend, we can see that the trend was down as the market is making lower pivot highs.

Anyway, the interval after the NBP is a Test. The interval following the Test is down. This means the test Failed. A clear sign of weakness and very reasonable place to get short.

In this case the Test does not pass and then give you No Result from a Test. Rather it is a test that simply fails with the next bar down. So the Result is negative from the effort which was the Test.

If you prefer, you can think in terms of another first principle: Supply & Demand. The Test is a check for latent supply. A failed Test means there is latent supply. If there is more supply than demand, then a market must fall. Or at best move sideways until the supply is soaked up by demand.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,131
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:36am Jun 16, 2011 8:36am
Quoting HiddenGap
Whilst you would never want to short a test bar, you are forgetting one of the first principles of VSA: Effort vs. Result.

If the market does not give the expected result from a test-increase in prices-the market must actually be weak.

Yesterday there was a perfect example.

As price moved up towards the trigger level, there was a No Buying Pressure bar (the chart says NSP should be NBP). The Chart Mode was SELL. Leaving that aside and thinking just in terms of trend, we can see that the trend was...
I agree fully and understand all that... failed tests are a SOW and should result in either a falling market or a sideways market. My post was not intended to argue the meaning of a failed test. A trader posted that a good short entry was at the break of the test bar noted on Liam's chart and I did not agree and posted that I would not ever take a short off the low of a test bar... that's just me, my opinion and how I trade nothing more.

In the chart Liam posted the low of the test was taken out on the next bar on and effort to fall closing right into the trigger with the next bar up taking out the high of that same test bar and then price rallied up a little further before falling off... so in this case the "failed test" was not a good short entry at all IMHO. I covered all of my reasonings for my point of view in that post although you focused on just my first line so I am not sure if you read the rest.

Effort vs Result, supply, demand all points I am well aware of and use everyday in my trading. Wouldn't be much of a VSA trader if I didn't at least understand supply and demand now would I...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,132
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:05am Jun 16, 2011 9:05am
The posts are too big and long in this thread now, I am too lazy to read them. I like the one sentence posting on eu thread like +200 for the day and such
  • #21,133
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:55am Jun 16, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Sonofsin5
The posts are too big and long in this thread now, I am too lazy to read them. I like the one sentence posting on eu thread like +200 for the day and such
LOL

If I was +200 for the day, I'd soon let you know
  • #21,134
  • Jun 16, 2011 10:07am Jun 16, 2011 10:07am
Quoting pres78
I agree fully and understand all that... failed tests are a SOW and should result in either a falling market or a sideways market. My post was not intended to argue the meaning of a failed test. A trader posted that a good short entry was at the break of the test bar noted on Liam's chart and I did not agree and posted that I would not ever take a short off the low of a test bar... that's just me, my opinion and how I trade nothing more.

In the chart Liam posted the low of the test was taken out on the next bar on and effort to fall closing right...
No need to be so defensive. If HG has bothered to comment on a post, I can assure you he has read the post start to finish. There is always something we can learn from traders who have as good an understanding of VSA as HG does. Even if we think we already know.
  • #21,135
  • Jun 16, 2011 10:09am Jun 16, 2011 10:09am
Quoting Intel
LOL

If I was +200 for the day, I'd soon let you know
Today, things are not very clear (to me) and it has been a day sitting idle. I am not saying there weren't set ups to be seen, just admitting I have a lot to learn VSA-wise still.

Can anyone clarify what we're seeing on Euro today?

P.S. I think it is my broker's feed that is screwing me up too.
  • #21,136
  • Jun 16, 2011 10:41am Jun 16, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Sonny1
Anyone else have this problem? If so, will this a temporary liquidity glitch?

Well I called the muppets, however they had no idea. Got into an argument instead as the lady was trying to explain to me what tick volume is, and it isnt reliable for trading, instead of giving a proper reason why the fu** the volume isn't there..
I have the same problem. I don't know how it's possible for a dealer like IBFX. Incredible!.

I hope they fix the problem ASAP.
  • #21,137
  • Jun 16, 2011 11:20am Jun 16, 2011 11:20am
Quoting Intel
No need to be so defensive. If HG has bothered to comment on a post, I can assure you he has read the post start to finish. There is always something we can learn from traders who have as good an understanding of VSA as HG does. Even if we think we already know.
I learn from all of his posts and wasn't really trying to be defensive... he focused on one line of my post and nothing more when he replied and there was much more to it than that.

Anyways HG no disrespect mean't you know how much I respect your posts and opinions.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,138
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:09pm Jun 16, 2011 3:09pm
"It is the intermediate trend that is of the greatest use when combined with VSA charting techniques..", Tom Williams, MTM, pg. 54.

"We have indicated already that if you are going to become a good trader, which then leads to making money in the stock market, you must trade with the consensus of professional opinion and not against it. This means that once a move is in progress you must be able to identify the underlying trend in price movements and go with the flow"., Tom Williams, MTM, pg 50.


I was going to write a post, but something has come up. Maybe I'll get to it later. But the qoutes are always worth remembering so here they are with a chart.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,139
  • Jun 16, 2011 6:35pm Jun 16, 2011 6:35pm
I am selling stop EUR/USD

http://investdad.com/fbs/eu.gif
  • #21,140
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:12pm Jun 16, 2011 8:12pm
I win. (Thanks for playing cliffy) lol
Reserved
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