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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,901
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:03pm Jun 13, 2011 2:03pm
Speaking of ypoc we are in the 6th month @ half year. we went to yearly high @1.4940 declined to collected vol @ current poc area, retested yearly vah and was rejected. We are currently coming down from the yvah, something tells me we need to test that ypoc. I mabey wrong but, I have a feeling it will be tested. weve swung from @ last years val all to its vah. Something makes me feel a test of yearly poc is in order. How soon thats a different story. The anomalies are interesting.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,902
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:52pm Jun 13, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting mzvega
Speaking of ypoc we are in the 6th month @ half year. we went to yearly high @1.4940 declined to collected vol @ current poc area, retested yearly vah and was rejected. We are currently coming down from the yvah, something tells me we need to test that ypoc. I mabey wrong but, I have a feeling it will be tested. weve swung from @ last years val all to its vah. Something makes me feel a test of yearly poc is in order. How soon thats a different story. The anomalies are interesting.
also note today's high is a backtest of June's VAL...interesting tug of war for sure, but like you indicated Claudia, the bottom of June's profile doesn't look right.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,903
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:19pm Jun 13, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting tgwhbb
also note today's high is a backtest of June's VAL...interesting tug of war for sure, but like you indicated Claudia, the bottom of June's profile doesn't look right.
Things just seem strange. Im not very good a accum/dist but the current chart looked like accumulation, but then you can see signs that price is being heavliy being sold into. Not sure what to think?
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,904
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:47pm Jun 13, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting mzvega
Alot of good info in one place! Thanx for sharing!!!!

I use mostly standard deviations from MP...Price was going backward to yearly(01-01-2011) POC at 1.4212....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,905
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:37pm Jun 13, 2011 5:37pm
here is weekly MP...at 3rd SD....
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,906
  • Edited 5:41pm Jun 13, 2011 5:40pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting mima
I use mostly standard deviations from MP...Price was going backward to yearly(01-01-2011) POC at 1.4212....
I traded with market statistics indi for a couple years, good indicator. The only complaint I found with it is that due to it being dynamic the poc's are different. Same indi, same date, 2 different poc. They also fluctuated alot. Its best to be consistent with TF for trading. Taking a trade at a poc on one timeframe, will not be the poc on another. From my observations. I also, didnt like that for longerterm profile(histogram) Id have to zoom way out to see the high & low points (HVN). But all in all its a great indicator. hard on cpu if you need more than one on the same chart. You maybe using a complete different type of indi. But the range extentions on the profile I use now (compliments of Bandung) are @ the same as stdv. Curious, do you use "Skewness and kurtosis" data in your analysis?
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,907
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:49pm Jun 13, 2011 5:49pm
Quoting mzvega
I traded with market statistics indi for a couple years, good indicator. The only complaint I found with it is that due to it being dynamic the poc's are different. Same indi, same date, 2 different poc. They also fluctuated alot. Its best to be consistent with TF for trading. Taking a trade at a poc on one timeframe, will not be the poc on another. From my observations. I also, didnt like that for longerterm profile(histogram) Id have to zoom way out to see the high & low points (HVN). But all in all its a great indicator. hard on cpu if you need...
Just saw your chart you posted, I thought is was different, wrong indi sorry!!!!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,908
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:52pm Jun 13, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting mzvega
I traded with market statistics indi for a couple years, good indicator. The only complaint I found with it is that due to it being dynamic the poc's are different. Same indi, same date, 2 different poc. They also fluctuated alot. Its best to be consistent with TF for trading. Taking a trade at a poc on one timeframe, will not be the poc on another. From my observations. I also, didnt like that for longerterm profile(histogram) Id have to zoom way out to see the high & low points (HVN). But all in all its a great indicator. hard on cpu if you need...
Never heard of that "Skewness and kurtosis"...I use different indicator...Yes, POC is different for different TF because short term trader and other time frame trader have different perception of value....but if you think something differently like different POC for daily MP on M15 or H1 chart well it should be the same but daily and weekly etc. have different POC of course.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,909
  • Edited 6:55pm Jun 13, 2011 6:50pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting mzvega
Things just seem strange. Im not very good a accum/dist but the current chart looked like accumulation, but then you can see signs that price is being heavliy being sold into. Not sure what to think?
here are my thoughts, marked up on the chart. at first I thought the up move in late NY session was suspicious, but seeing how price has hung around there, it looks like that supply is being absorbed near the monthly VAL. The scenarios I'm watching are:

1. long liquidation break down to 1.4370 area to shake out weak longs. look for buy around there if that happens

2. selling climax into 4460 area. look for shorts around there.

Food for thought. Tomorrow's range will determine the weekly IB. Currently weekly IB is about 110 pips, 56 pips short of the average WIB range. a move up into 4460 area would make the WIB about average (4460 is also naked POC from friday). If 4370 (level is monday's VAH) sees initiative sellers, then tomorrow could be down to about 4270 which happens to be a HVN from 2 weeks back on the weekly profile...

So the question now becomes, does EU shakeout weak longs first, and if so does that imply further strength is possible. Or does EU move up first and exhaust itself before having to move down to find more buyers...and if it does that does it imply more weakness??
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,910
  • Jun 13, 2011 7:06pm Jun 13, 2011 7:06pm
On 3rd SD volume was low ...it might move EU down...I still think about 1.4212
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,911
  • Jun 14, 2011 7:33am Jun 14, 2011 7:33am
Quoting mzvega
Very interesting…… Im going to have to do some further reasearch. Question , You mentioned the word “hedge”. Usually, I think a hedge is Long on one instument (currency pair), against another. Your statements have only one pair eur/usd. When the no hedging rules started I opened a second account one to be long trades , and one for my shorts. Since I only see one currency pair in your statements, I assume your hedging eur/usd using 2 accounts? Im not sure Im getting the idea on how to determine the 70% -30%. When your longs fall below 70% you...
Hi Claudia,

For most people they will pick 2 pairs or 2 stocks to hedge to apply the 70/30 tactic, for me I just use one pair. with 1 account.
  • #2,912
  • Edited 8:52am Jun 14, 2011 8:42am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting tgwhbb
here are my thoughts, marked up on the chart. at first I thought the up move in late NY session was suspicious, but seeing how price has hung around there, it looks like that supply is being absorbed near the monthly VAL. The scenarios I'm watching are:

1. long liquidation break down to 1.4370 area to shake out weak longs. look for buy around there if that happens

2. selling climax into 4460 area. look for shorts around there.

Food for thought. Tomorrow's range will determine the weekly IB. Currently weekly IB is about 110 pips,...
ok, well i missed the long by less than 10 pips, but my short is in at 4450. SL set above NY C period, if its hit one-timeframing down has stopped.

EDIT: still about 20 pips left to fill the WIB range, so there is a chance that eu hits 4490. the other possibility is EU hits 1.4300 today. seems far away...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,913
  • Jun 14, 2011 9:26am Jun 14, 2011 9:26am
stopped out again...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,914
  • Jun 14, 2011 10:22pm Jun 14, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting tgwhbb
ok, well i missed the long by less than 10 pips, but my short is in at 4450. SL set above NY C period, if its hit one-timeframing down has stopped.

EDIT: still about 20 pips left to fill the WIB range, so there is a chance that eu hits 4490. the other possibility is EU hits 1.4300 today. seems far away...
4496 was tuesday's high, and quite the drop off from there in late NY session.

Was wondering about the weekly IB. Week opened near the low and moved up continuously to form the weekly IB. would you consider that an open-drive IB, an indication of strong confidence in the direction? Yet today's profile top looks like a dead stop at 4480 level, similar to last Tuesday's profile before the drop lower started...
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,915
  • Jun 15, 2011 1:53am Jun 15, 2011 1:53am
Well, price hit supply at 1.4496...3rd SD...perception of the value for EU wasn't strong enough to continue so it changed direction....It seems that market did not give up of 1.4212(YPOC)...not yet.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,916
  • Jun 15, 2011 4:17am Jun 15, 2011 4:17am
it is still well inside the range.
breakout of the support will see 4150.
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  • #2,917
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:00am Jun 15, 2011 10:00am
Quoting tgwhbb
4496 was tuesday's high, and quite the drop off from there in late NY session.

Was wondering about the weekly IB. Week opened near the low and moved up continuously to form the weekly IB. would you consider that an open-drive IB, an indication of strong confidence in the direction? Yet today's profile top looks like a dead stop at 4480 level, similar to last Tuesday's profile before the drop lower started...
Yes pa was very simular. Also simular in the fact that was it up on decreased volume. Although va was higher, but the poc, off the highs, like gravity price usually is or will be drawn to the center of gravity, those 2 things together imo show weakness. as in previous post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4676407

My thoughts on the IB confidence (open drive) for weekly, locals control the Daily IB, I would also assume and think that the confidence level in the weekly IB is also local (smaller tf participants) confidence. Just like the daily IB we often have an open drive that stops dead at the IB highs or lows. I think that as we approach these levels ,the fact that if we get there on increased or dereased vol gives clues. OTF participation and confidence is shown by extention (imo), while local confidence reamins in the IB just an opinion
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,918
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:50am Jun 15, 2011 10:50am
Quoting mzvega
Yes pa was very simular. Also simular in the fact that was it up on decreased volume. Although va was higher, but the poc, off the highs, like gravity price usually is or will be drawn to the center of gravity, those 2 things together imo show weakness. as in previous post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4676407

My thoughts on the IB confidence (open drive) for weekly, locals control the Daily IB, I would also assume and think that the confidence level in the weekly IB is also local (smaller tf participants)...
yeah, now really wishing i kept my short from 4490!! not sure really why I closed it near NY closing yesterday...need to work on that, especially since I told myself that was the weekly high!! back in short at today's NY IB high, will try and hold this to at least the weekly IBL extension at 4142
Change is the only constant
  • #2,919
  • Jun 15, 2011 12:07pm Jun 15, 2011 12:07pm
Im still short @1.46732. I think the move may have exhasted itself. We've exceeded that anomaly on the monthly profile. I would like to think that area needs to fill itself out. After a large move like that price needs to seek or form balance where 2 sided trading can begin again.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,920
  • Edited 3:58pm Jun 15, 2011 12:53pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting mzvega
Im still short @1.46732. I think the move may have exhasted itself. We've exceeded that anomaly on the monthly profile. I would like to think that area needs to fill itself out. After a large move like that price needs to seek or form balance where 2 sided trading can begin again.
current plan on the chart. backfill very possible. red line is my SL, green line below is my buy limit. note the WIBLx2, if price gets there, monthly still one-timeframing down...
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Change is the only constant
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