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AUD/USD

  • #30,001
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:40pm Jun 12, 2011 10:40pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Great quote....Note to self every time I short this pair I get my butt kicked, but , time will tell if it's a spoon at all . the Q is when will she retrace?

1.0500 next stop if we go Bear 1.0600 bull to keep in the channel
I just wouldnt short it at all honestly.. its really not the pair to short if anything short the eur/usd or whatever on risk adversion this is a long trade only pair on anything higher than 4 hours .. short aud.usd trades risks are exacerbated by the inflation rate and interest rate differential and puts a serious hurt on your account overtime. Its much more efficient use of time and energy to look for longs on the aud.usd and shorts on convergent inflationary and interest rate differential pairs. but heck thats just what ive been saying since .68..

note that there is a fantastic short sided trade going on in the aud.nzd convergent IRD/IRD with 1.31700 being a great break of a RZ9K-SWAPPED resistance line with nice even non-gapped shortsided orderflow
  • #30,002
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:05pm Jun 12, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting VennD
No problem with that , Chillypiper ! U see..., i still hv one short from 1.1010 but i do not hv its partner (Mr.Long ) - hd accidently closed my long (@ 1.0446) the other day. What a mistake !
This guy can;t be serious. Anyone who would hold this pair short for that long would be eaten by the Int. I call fibber!
  • #30,003
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:07pm Jun 12, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting domino
I just wouldn't short it at all honestly.. its really not the pair to short if anything short the eur/usd or whatever on risk adversion this is a long trade only pair on anything higher than 4 hours .. short aud.usd trades risks are exacerbated by the inflation rate and interest rate differential and puts a serious hurt on your account overtime. Its much more efficient use of time and energy to look for longs on the aud.usd and shorts on convergent inflationary and interest rate differential pairs. but heck thats just what ive been saying since...
Sense 68... i was 5? OK I take your point well and that good sound advice I'm a thinken I am still bearish the green back as a whole, USDIndex is in a short turn rally.....

Thanks for the in-site sir. Still learning here,....Allways... You have a chart on the aud/nzd ? love to see it. I've been thinking bout putting it on my radar too..But herd its a bit hard to find true correlation's, allthough cny shows direction fore sure....

Cheers!
  • #30,004
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:09pm Jun 12, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting bigslice54
This guy can;t be serious. Anyone who would hold this pair short for that long would be eaten by the Int. I call fibber!
You would be suppised...... He is a machine!
  • #30,005
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:14pm Jun 12, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting bigslice54
This guy can;t be serious. Anyone who would hold this pair short for that long would be eaten by the Int. I call fibber!
?

Interest costs what, like 1 pip per day...he has been holding trades for about 40 ish days, including weekends, meaning that his loss is round about that much...470 ish off top minus what, 40-50 pips still leaves a nice tidy profit...

Not sure if he has one of them batshit crazy lvgs, but even still, wiping 400 pips in 40 days on that would be considered a little excessive...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #30,006
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:27pm Jun 12, 2011 11:27pm
Possible bullish div on MACD-15min...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #30,007
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:59pm Jun 12, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Sense 68... i was 5? OK I take your point well and that good sound advice I'm a thinken I am still bearish the green back as a whole, USDIndex is in a short turn rally.....

Thanks for the in-site sir. Still learning here,....Allways... You have a chart on the aud/nzd ? love to see it. I've been thinking bout putting it on my radar too..But herd its a bit hard to find true correlation's, allthough cny shows direction fore sure....

Cheers!
.68 was feb 09 recently not 1968 haha .. am I saying I can call bottom in times of crisis.. no I shotguned it at 63 again at 64 again at 68 which is what stuck.. usd is a funding currency things would freeze if the dollar rises so its in americas best interest for it to be sold down. CNY shows direction but you wont get paid rate for it... so there is no point there are better pairs.
  • #30,008
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:23am Jun 13, 2011 12:23am
Quoting domino
.68 was feb 09 recently not 1968 haha .. am I saying I can call bottom in times of crisis.. no I shotguned it at 63 again at 64 again at 68 which is what stuck.. usd is a funding currency things would freeze if the dollar rises so its in americas best interest for it to be sold down. CNY shows direction but you wont get paid rate for it... so there is no point there are better pairs.
Sorry, I guess I had my blinders on..lol pretty funny though. I understand about the benefit to the sell down of the usd and I see a lot of money made from 2009 too... I need to study the weekly more I think.

I thank you for your thought's and in-site on another pr also.. It's just so tempting with It's possitive interest rate and commodity correlations
  • #30,009
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:43am Jun 13, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Chillypiper
Ok sorry bout Mr long... wth..lol. I do agree with your analysis and I also have my eye on the fibo 50% there around 1.032 area also. But I to am looking for long scalp for now.. Lets see and good luck!
Hello Chillypiper !

Told u abt tht particular TL / Support Well.... Opened 3 trades on last Friday before NY Close. Just to test that zone..Thought it would run me down but it didn't. Had just closed two of them and maintain one @ 527 locked TP @ BE+1.

If it didn't retest the recent low (1.0522 ).. might retest the upper level... back and forth like that till it can determine which channel it should shoot through.

As always.. I'll be scalping both ways... less talk... focus on trades and contribute only what is necessary. (Im determine to get the best possible price , top and bottom ).

Cheers.!
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  • #30,010
  • Edited 7:21am Jun 13, 2011 7:16am | Edited 7:21am
This is USD Index , technically I see might rally up in the long run but I can't figure out as how and why fundamentally, in future , USD can beat AUD.

As of now it is on retracement down while AU climb up , so... watch your longs on AUD/USD carefully.
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  • #30,011
  • Jun 13, 2011 8:16am Jun 13, 2011 8:16am
Quoting VennD
Hello Chillypiper !

Told u abt tht particular TL / Support Well.... Opened 3 trades on last Friday before NY Close. Just to test that zone..Thought it would run me down but it didn't. Had just closed two of them and maintain one @ 527 locked TP @ BE+1.

If it didn't retest the recent low (1.0522 ).. might retest the upper level... back and forth like that till it can determine which channel it should shoot through.

As always.. I'll be scalping both ways... less talk... focus on trades and contribute only what is necessary. (Im determine...

word vinn I actually had your same entrance.. it looks like shortside orderflow will win out here to the downside tho.. so ill be getting to break even now.

I was hoping we would see the big resistance marker at 600 tho
  • #30,012
  • Jun 13, 2011 8:45am Jun 13, 2011 8:45am
Quoting domino
word vinn I actually had your same entrance.. it looks like shortside orderflow will win out here to the downside tho.. so ill be getting to break even now.

I was hoping we would see the big resistance marker at 600 tho
Hello Domino !

Look at this Gold 4h ... Seems heavy down. might effect AU also. Other than that in 14-15hrs from now, 2 Aust Data due out and 6 China Data. One of them is of high impact , might interrupt AU movements. (So much noises in AU ).
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  • #30,013
  • Jun 13, 2011 10:37am Jun 13, 2011 10:37am
Good morning all, took a long lastnight and closed her at 0572 for a +38 piper. Lets see what happens for now short orders at 0554 and 5495. Good luck this week , seams a bit choppy out right now and alot of news later...

Chilly
  • #30,014
  • Jun 13, 2011 11:17am Jun 13, 2011 11:17am
1) USD Index 4h tf.

2) AU 5m chart.

3) Aust & China Data due in 9-10hrs from now.... as of now ... we are trending within a range.... awaiting for those data, I think... big guns will make their moves earlier by 30m or so.

4) Heard talks abt ... China is moving around the emerging markets to swap USD with Yuan. I think thats abt import and export with China only. Could it affect AUD/USD .... and how ?
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  • #30,015
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:59pm Jun 13, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Good morning all, took a long lastnight and closed her at 0572 for a +38 piper. Lets see what happens for now short orders at 0554 and 5495. Good luck this week , seams a bit choppy out right now and alot of news later...

Chilly
Wow... Luck to be able a get sl in for a few pips before the power reversal. So went long for 60+ pipers, closed @ 1.0630 (best trade for me in a while. First channel pearst.. Where is she headed?
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  • #30,016
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:22pm Jun 13, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Possible bullish div on MACD-15min...

A-ha...

Now, possible inverted H&S at 2H. We're going to start the second shoulder down...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #30,017
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:30pm Jun 13, 2011 2:30pm
nice intraday rally (50 nice pips)

target now : 1.0705'ish on the upside. (bullish)

happy trading.
  • #30,018
  • Edited 5:57pm Jun 13, 2011 5:54pm | Edited 5:57pm
.... and that's where all these amusement came. Chillypiper must be licking his pips by now..

At this point... AU has options ... which one , I don't know... as usual ... projections 569 / 627 / 710.

My short got stop out @ BE+1 and reenter slightly below the previous.
Anyways ... 2 more hours for Aust data and 3 more hours for China data.

Both Aust data are of low impact might move between 20-40 pips.. while China will have 6 data.. they are categorize as low,medium and high impact. Should this data could affect AU... then... additional ... over 100 pips moves.

.... or it will moves up and down .. just like ...donno where to go coz... STOPS are lying around up there and down below.

Attachment : USDIX 4h tf.
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  • #30,019
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:05pm Jun 13, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting chazzle
a retracement to 106/107 looks like a good area to short
nice rejection of that 2 day mid so far ... lets see how it goes short from 10614 ready to add if we approach 107
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  • #30,020
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:34pm Jun 13, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting chazzle
nice rejection of that 2 day mid so far ... lets see how it goes short from 10614 ready to add if we approach 107
closed 10602 , lets call it a scalp :
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