Romancing the Price

After watching the following video it's very tempting to go in and load all the silver you can buy and wait for the moment to make a fortune...



However, the guy in the video is talking about realities of the real World and realities play very small part in day to day trading.. It's all about speculation.. Forget about real value of Silver, Gold, Oil and so on.. In trading there is no such a thing as real value, should be, would be etc.. Real value as we've been thought is just an Illusion when it comes to trading..



If you were to go by the real World facts and bought 1 std lot silver at the top (just under $50) with the belief of it can go only one way and hold it without any sensible stop, then you'd be living with the burden of over $70.000 minus balance after dropping below $33 within a week.

How this could happen.. It's a precious metal, we don't have endless physical supply.. Look at the chart below, World silver reserves depleting fast.. What the hell is happening..

Welcome to the World of speculation.. In this World [speculation] we trade not realities, but numbers on our charts.. We trade what we see on our charts.. Nothing else.. It doesn't matter it's silver, gold or bananas.. This is the reality for a trader, rest is just a gossip or bar talk....

KILL THE BIAS............

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” – Jesse Livermore

...

this is the part 1 of 5 parts Jake Bernstein presentation about "Catching the Big Moves" i think the part 1 is the most important one.. about simple basics which makes or breaks a trader.. in the following parts, he talks about mainly seasonal patterns for longer term traders..

As per Kennys request im copying this into here:

Enjoy reading, the EU chart analysis is in the other thread


I do love commodities, PA and S/D much more clearer and stable on it. I feel a lot more calmer and see myself getting less enraged over the absurdities of Currencies and the disastrous shitstorm of price movements it usually does.

Normally i would get fucking enraged and start throwing a tantric fit whenever EU would do something crazy... but now it just stopped bothering me. Ive come to realise that i have become so heavily biased on currencies that are USD crosses that it messes with my analysis, missing out on a lot of shorts. I've seen how many of my Currency trades usually tend to be dollar shorts. A couple dozen pages ago we were discussing the euro being in weekly supply, it penetrated that zone so deeply, and after it cut the first 4hr supply like its butter there was a general sense of confusion going on. I rather took this time to invest into safer opportunities aswell as finishing up my latest trading strategy and working out the bugs and dents.

To be a true supply and Demand trader (including Price action obviously) you are not allowed to have a bias... infact you are better off ignoring EVERYTHING that is happening in the news. Ignore rate decisions, NFP reports, ISM data etc etc.
Historically speaking you will have Price doing crazy and absolutely irrational things. Now this will either stem from your completely delusional perspective on micro and macro economics and thus missinterpreting signals and data, or based on the fact that the price truly just lies on supply and demand.

There are so many things happening to currency price that need to be taken into consideration, currency reserves, money supply, inflation, interest rates, Sovereign Debt and Debt in general, Production output, Central Bank decision, cyclical data, natural disasters and black swan events.

Even if you had a perfect weighting system for the above mentioned you would still get fucked over one way or the other. I'd argue that greed plays a vital role in many decisions. Take the AUDUSD long i had today, i could have taken it out at +35 pips easily.. but i chose to set the TP to BE+2, because i couldnt be hassled with the stress of monitoring it, it either would have broken up further or retraced hard. I didnt care, knowing the limitations of trades is key to being successful.

Trading in concept is easy, in reality its absolutely Brutal, every other trader is virtually your competitor, the markets want you to fail and the market is exceedingly efficient at it. Trading is the most competitive business there is and many many many people will fail, ultimately its how you manage your risk, play your trades and a dozen other factors that determine if youre in it for the long game, or if your just in it to do some insanely stupid things.

I remember a time where finding entries was exceedingly tough, placing stop losses was just a disaster. I have come a long way since then, i've grown, learnt and understood things that i would have never considered possible and found my niche in the markets. Its nice to see my work has paid off , although im still looking for that grande opportunity to trade a very very large fund, once i have 10 million in equity to trade im going to consider myself a very very happy person. Until then i will keep working hard.

Forexfactory and especially this thread have become so useful i cannot express it in words. The amount of tricks, styles, concepts i have learned in here from red and people i now consider to be my friends is virtually invaluable.

But if someone told me 2 years ago how much shit i would have to get through and how much i had to learn, knowing myself back then i would have probably said "fuck that shit... sounds painful and annoying as fuck"

So this is a small message to the many lurkers and newer traders we have in here:

There is a saying that lessons not learned in blood or money are lessons not learned at all, keep trading, work hard and i mean really fucking hard, to previal in this business you will need absolute fucking dedication and work with the precision of a motherfucking neuro surgeon. Trading isnt a weekend in Las Vegas where you come back with herpes and ask yourself what the fuck happened, everything is a calculated decision, every step needs to be controlled and requires knowledge and certainty in what youre doing. If youre in this to have some "fun" and make "easy money" youre in the wrong business, know upfront what youre up against and what you need to do to prevail, and most of all decide if the time and energy you spend doing this will actually be worth it.

This message is dedicated to the countless PM's ive received from people who are telling me that they are struggeling, lost money and generally don't understand what they are doing wrong.

Im tired as fuck right now and need some sleep its 05:41 am here right now and i still havent finished marking up half of the trading instruments for next week. So see you guys in a bit after my beauty sleep.

To the rest: Enjoy your weekend.

I spent a while today compiling this list of abbreviations for charting and what not. In fact, as so often happens with my big works in the forum, I somehow deleted most of it and had to start from scratch.

If you're wondering what any of the terms mean, they may well have been taken from Bulkowski http://thepatternsite.com/rank.html


Feel free to suggest additions and edits


A - as a prefix - Ascending
AA- Adam and Adam
ACH - Ascending Channel
AE - Adam and Eve
AWG - Ascending wedge
BE - Break even
BE - As a prefix - Bearish, example: BEACH - Bearish ascending channel
BEB - Bearish engulfing outside bar
BEFL - Bearflag
BH - Bar highs
BNR - Bump and run
BO - Breakout
BOPA - Breakout, pullback and advance
BOPB - Breakout + pullback
BR - as a prefix - Broadening
BRN - Big round number
BU - As a prefix - Bullish
BUB - Bullish engulfing outside bar
BUFL - Bullflag
CH - Channel
CN - Continuation
CP - Compression
CWH - Cup with handle
D - Demand
DBB - Double Bottom
DBD - Drop base drop, descending pole flag pole
DBR - Drop base rally
DBHLC - Double Bar high lower close
DBLHC - Double Bar low higher close
DBT - Double top
D1 - Daily
DD - Daily demand
DM - Diamond
DIV - Divergence
DS - Daily supply
DS - as a prefix- descending
DSCH - Descending channel
DSWG - Descending wedge
DTL - Demand trend line
EA - Eve and Adam
EE - Eve and Eve
EX - Exhaustion
FL - Flag / Consolidation
FML - Ask Orbital
FTA - First trouble area
HB - Horn Bottoms
HNS - Head and shoulders
HT - Horn tops
HTF - Higher timeframe
HTFL - High and tight flag (amazing results!)
IB - Inside bar
Ib4 - Inside 4 bar that is the smallest bar of the previous 3 bars
ILR - Island reversal
INV - Inverted
LIL - Long island
LTF - Lower timeframe
M1 - 1 minute
M2 and so on
MMD - Measured move down
MMU - Measured move up
MN - Monthly
PA - Price action
PB - Pin bar
PIE - Price Is Everything thread
PPZ - Price pivot zone
RN - Round number
RBD - Rally base drop
RBR - Rally base rally, ascending pole flag pole
RT - Retrace/Retracement
RTP - Romancing the Price thread
RV - Reversal
S - Supply
Shampoo - see HNS
SL - Stoploss
SR - Support/resistance
SRF - SR Flip
STL - Supply trend line
TG - Target
TL - Trend line
TP - Take profit
TPP - Take partial profit
TR - Triangle
TWB - Tweezer bottoms
TWT - Tweezer tops
W1 - Weekly
WD - Weekly Demand
WG - Wedge
WS -





If

I lolled

Time for some weekend party, see you guys on Sunday/Monday ( Btw if which brokers are you and ken using for crude right now, avafx if i remember correctly. Im taking security precautions and moving my money out of greece banks for now... with FxPro you never know.

Yup, it's ava

but I'm seriously on the hunt for a great ecn with a massive list of instruments

Don't do anything I haven't done this weekend. The list is quite small though, so there's plenty of scope for fun

Try ig index they have a verry wide of instruments also fxcm uk is oke i use them both fxcm uk only don't have much commodities but they have oil silver s&p and dax dow etc igindex they have a very wide base of instruments


Regards,

IG is fucking horrible and i don't have the equity to do serious business with Interactive Brokers yet.

So IG is out of the question for now. Sitting in the club with a laptop right now chilling with the DJ's getting some final work done... always working lol....

What do you imagine SFAT would mean?

Answers on a postcard to:

Ifmyante the Sane,
Outside the madhouse,
Earth.

if i remember correctly, when depositing money with fxpro, they give u an option to choose from banks u want to use.. such as Barclays, HSCB etc beside Greek banks.. however, i don't know if they move client deposits to different banks afterward..

Jack Schwager - Winning Methods of the Market Wizards..

nice weekend watch.. i like Jack.. i can sit and listen him all day...

few things i've been looking at

looking at AUDUSD...

H4
daily
monthly
.......

Nice one Kenny

Going through them now. Jack really has heart.
Finished clip 2. How many moments have we all had by not trusting our SLs? What if we had just halved our positions when it got too painful?

BTW,
I've had some pm's asking for my Display Spread indi, so I've attached it.
Might as well put up one I don't use as well (I tend to draw my own). MacD Divergence

looking at GBPUSD

...

Monthly
Daily
H4

usdx correlation to eurx, usdnok, usdjpy and audusd

....

A little on ECAD

Hi Ifmyante,

I appreciate the time taken to respond, it helps alot.

Regards

Martin

No worries Martin

All questions are more than welcome

My view on AU