hi ,smrfx,was you watching quotes during that 30 pip drop in cable,if any body was you could clearly see an opportunity of how to use quote price ,the acceleration down and the many price jumps,also no abc smoothness .great opportunity to trade back to fill,i got stopped first attempt ,entry 38 level,dropped another 10 re entered long and got the fill all the way back to 60.interestingly,left a whole back down at 30 ish.havnt taken the short back down as i see some shifting of money accross all my pairs,so will wait to see an indication of selling
Unfortunately I had to visit my dentist this morning and I couldn't watch the market.
King Singh, you are right about my name. How exactly yo determine your entry point?
William, your trading style is very interesting. Could you try to explain it.
cash_machine, I watch the EMAs on 5M, 15M and 1H also. The best trades are when various EMAs on different time frames coincide. I also watch for swing highs and lows.
hi smrfx,
its hard to explain in a nutshell my method of trading its opportunist.im trading a no of methods on ftse and fx, my intraday trading ,i try to poach pips from oddities in cross pairs,
im watching the value change on 14 pairs,and value change of 7 indicies,im looking for harmony of the money flow,
ill elaborate on my trade this morning to give insight,all my currency pairs were in perfect sync at london open,all had been selling of from late asian market,steady and fluently ,prices stalled across all pairs,watching quote price on cable,at 16260 ish level,sidways movement,then cable dropped 30 pips skipping down leaving holes in price on the way down,price stopped ,at 38 .looking at my 13 other pairs i could clearly see there values were starting to turn upwards,went long cable,dropped 11 or so pips ,got stopped out by a pip,all other pairs still going the opposite way,re entered and price filled them holes and cable fell back into line with the overall money flow,as i said in previous post,it jumped back up above the intial 30 pip candle at 30 level,i closed 60 level,concidering shorting back down to 30 ,but strong buying across all pairs.eratic price movements on indies
now if i combined that with your style i would have had close to a hundred pips,great word if,but having said that it stuck to the 20 day ma like a fly on a cows arse.
i watched price stall at the highs ,16315 ish,but had to go out,look were it has been hugging for the last 20 minutes,the hole it left behind at 30
i look for similar set ups and there are many,i will post them as they occur,
not A ROCKET SCIENCE APPROACH .
REGARDS
WILLIAM
PS MY FTSE HAS HIT ITS 5786 TARGET ,ALBEIT A DAY LATE
Hi William,
A friend of mine is trading with a similar style. This is a kind of statistical arbitrage. He is watching two majors and their cross and when he finds some kind of distortion, opens a position.
srmfx,
when everything is in sync ,there are some good opportunities,to trade a pair which is misbehaving,or lagging on price,also spooks can take a pair away from its true value,news is a good example of this,cable gets played a lot ,you get to see these plays by watching the actual money flow.its psychologically difficult to buy ,example cable,when its just dropped 50 pips in 1 min,but when 13 related pairs are buying it becomes clear .the money flow is circular ,intertwined ,it has no individual mind,if cable runs a 1000 pips on the doller ,the circle at some point needs to accommodate that change,all cross pairs have no choice but to adjust there price.
regards
william
just to add to my last post,when everything is out of sync ,the corrections in there individual prices will need to change and ultimately bring harmony back .that will give us good trades,the only thing that can beat us is our placing of stops and lack of conviction in truth
ive posted a chart of how the money flow collectively moves,this is a longer term trading mehod i trade,but helps to explain the principle of my intraday trading.its a offline chart showing the price movement of 14 currency pairs,thanks to the originator t1o1.what im doing intraday is to look for a pair which is not conforming to this flow.
now what i would really like to do,and im asking in the wrong place,but as its related to the topic of the thread ill ask here first,before asking in more appropriate threads,if smrfx wants me to remove this post ill oblige.if any body could code a similar chart only for the indicies ,i think 7 would suffice ,we could then compare the correlation between currencies and indicies,im sure we would find relationships to trade from
William, I assume that the market conditions are changing constantly and a trader should have not a strategy, but a trading style. My style is to follow the big money. Currency pairs correlation is one of the tools I use and your posts are more than welcome. How you calculate if all the pairs are in sync?
Hi Srmfx, how often does market change? Once a month? Once a year? Every week? Do you think patterns in the quotes change as well?
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It depends how we define change. Let me give an example with the yen. Japan participates actively in the international trade. The companies are importing raw materials and are exporting finished goods. This means that a lot of the activity in USD/JPY and Cross/JPY is connected with the real economy. The companies are not trading for speculative purposes and this makes the currency pair more predictable and easier to trade. Importers are sitting on the bid, while the exporters are on the offer. Clear support and resistance levels could be identified and traded. This was the case with USD/JPY until 5-6 years ago. Large spec accounts were attracted by the huuuge interest rate differential and the carry traded was the name of the game. This game created a few bubbles that eventually went burst and the risk aversion was the king. After the big swings up and down the USD/JPY market has changed dramatically and it is untradable now.
It depends how we define change. Let me give an example with the yen. Japan participates actively in the international trade. The companies are importing raw materials and are exporting finished goods. This means that a lot of the activity in USD/JPY and Cross/JPY is connected with the real economy. The companies are not trading for speculative purposes and this makes the currency pair more predictable and easier to trade. Importers are sitting on the bid, while the exporters are on the offer. Clear support and resistance levels could be identified...
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Hi srmfx
Can you please elaborate more on the differences and changes bettwen todays market and before 2008 crysis. I know it is not a direct trading question but I am realy interested. And if there is any example besides those mentioned. I just started trading when crysis began...
hi smrfx,i determine as to whether the movement is in sync ,when they are all in agreement,i have 6 yen crosses,3 sterling,4 euro 3 doller,they also accommodate chf and aud.basically when yen and doller and chf are selling this reflects itself across 14 crosses,in there change of value,they also move like a syncronized swimming group,they pause,take breath then of they go again,thats what i look to see,thats my bias on shorts or longs.when indicies match with this ,its very powerfull,selling across the board,there are only a few places that the money is going.regarding the changing market ,i dont really know the answer to that,but i do know that it always returns to this flow.
news and such,stops this flow and somtimes turns it.ofcoarse there no consistency in this when markets are not sure,rangy and choppy.
i look for a cross that has fallen out of sync to the others,and by what degree,mostly it will eventually conform and jion the overall flow
hi ,
ill put my point across in another way,lets say yen is falling alongside doller and swissy,that would show on my platform as 12 pairs all in positive value and rising.pound,euro,ausd,cad,ect all rising with momentum,cable has stalled,in anticipation of news to be released.the news is bad for the pound and the initial reaction is a sell of of the pound.now lets assume the overall sentiment has not really changed.cable dropped 80 pips.that needs to be reflected across the other pairs value,if the rest dont re a just,then cable will trade back to conform with the value of its brothers and sisters,the other thing that causes this ,is when cable is being manipulated for all the reasons discussed across many threads,but what the manipulators cant do is alter the real natural money flow,so cable will bounce back to its true value it has no chioce,the only other scenario is the bad news was bad enough to change sentiment on a larger scale in which case a reversal across all pairs will happen
this is my take on things and may well be incorrect,but it certainly brings pips and very quickly
regards
william
Hi srmfx
Can you please elaborate more on the differences and changes bettwen todays market and before 2008 crysis. I know it is not a direct trading question but I am realy interested. And if there is any example besides those mentioned. I just started trading when crysis began...
Thanks,good luck
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The market was less crowded in the years before 2008 and the large specs were not so greedy. The things started to change in during 2006. Strange terms as carry trade and risk appetite became popular and the bubbles popped everywhere. From 2006 to 2009 I was risk manager at a mining company and this was helpful for me to see the market from another perspective. The market had closer connection with the fundamentals and technicals and prices moves were orderly. Now the rules of the game has changed and the traders have to adapt to the new reality.
Now the rules of the game has changed and the traders have to adapt to the new reality.
Ignored
I can certainly attest to that.
I started trading 4X in 2006. Because I had been in business for myself (not a trader) I approached trading with a fundamental perspective. That's the way most businesses are run with the fundamentals.
Then for a while I thought I had lost my mind, The fundamentals went crazy. Good was bad and bad was good. Someplace I figured out that I would have to be a technician if I was going to survive.
Recently with the governments trading the huge amounts they have been for nothing but political reasons, I guess I will be primarily a scalper.
Fine whatever it takes.
I can certainly attest to that.
I started trading 4X in 2006. Because I had been in business for myself (not a trader) I approached trading with a fundamental perspective. That's the way most businesses are run with the fundamentals.
Then for a while I thought I had lost my mind, The fundamentals went crazy. Good was bad and bad was good. Someplace I figured out that I would have to be a technician if I was going to survive.
Recently with the governments trading the huge amounts they have been for nothing but political reasons, I guess I will...
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bapxyz,
You made a very good description of the process of turning a trader from fundamentalist to scalper. I talked to many people visiting my training courses or reading my books and I can tell that what you wrote is valid for many of them. Everybody wants to be a scalper these days, but I think that is not right. The best trading style is to try to follow the big money as close as you can. That means that you have to look for high probability entries with low risk and then just to trail your stop behind the price. I know this from my experience. It's not worth it to spoil e perfect entry with a lousy position management. Often I was selling the top or buying the bottom for a few pips scalping profit in the very beginning of 1 or 2 big figures move. Why not to try to catch a bigger portion of this move? It's all about position and money management.
william,
I know what you mean about the GBP. Sometimes after very good or awful data the cable is aggressively sold or bought and it stretches in one direction creating a bigger long or short position. Out of a sudden a "contrarian" appears in the market and squeezes these huuuge position providing a very nice opportunity for big quick profit. Sometimes you can make easy 100 pips for very short time.
Hi srmfx
And if there is any example besides those mentioned. I just started trading when crysis began...
Thanks,good luck
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During the last months of 2004 EURUSD was in an uptrend. The intraday moves of this trend followed an almost perfect pattern. Before the London open the currency pair tested a support level which of course held and a move up started. A few minutes after 8 am GMT the upper boundary of the Asian range was broken and this breakout could be traded as well as almost every retracement. Just before the open of the NY markets some of the longs were closed and this created a nice trading opportunity around 12:30 GMT. This daily schedule changed after the big money entered the forex market in the last few years. My favorite 12:30 strategy is not working for months.
