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Fail Better

  • #601
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:55am Jun 8, 2011 4:55am
Quoting MinceMeat
Hi simplebeans,

Tom uses the following web page to generate the graph:
http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

Just put in your win/loss rate, win probability and number of lines / paths and hit the generate button.

Cheers
MM
Cheers Mince! :-)
  • #602
  • Jun 8, 2011 5:12pm Jun 8, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting the_wizard
Aha. Now it's getting interesting.

One thing I like about J16 is he doesn't go on about needing a 1:2 (or higher), in terms of R, all day long.

If the probability of the trade is high enough, the R is largely irrelevant.

That's not to say one should start risking 100 pips to make 10 or anything silly like that but you do need to balance R with your strike rate.

They have an intricate relationship and their love child is called your EDGE :-)

For example the Sunday night gap. My R is 0.5. That means I risk 2 pips for every 1 that I make...
Now that's a good looking chart

Simon
  • #603
  • Jun 8, 2011 6:17pm Jun 8, 2011 6:17pm
Tom or anyone else just to get some hindsight analysis on the AUD/USD H1 rounded retest. The red arrow indicates my entry point i just wanted to get some insight as you can see the price came back once before bouncing but as it wasnt on a daily S/R pivot i had drawn i carried on waiting. Then it came back again this time touching my S/R pivot before going long on it way up.

I just wondered as price had already been back once in hingsight would that have invalidated this setup or as i did would you have still taken it? :-)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #604
  • Jun 9, 2011 5:02am Jun 9, 2011 5:02am
a couple im watching....

jon
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #605
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:02am Jun 9, 2011 7:02am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
a couple im watching....

jon
Jon, On GBPCHF, my 2 cents.. does this make any sense to you ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #606
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:10am Jun 9, 2011 9:10am
Hi guys, anyone taking long EUR/USD? Bought @1.4508 and 1.4497. My target is 1.4550 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #607
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:47am Jun 9, 2011 9:47am
Quoting saulynas
Hi guys, anyone taking long EUR/USD? Bought @1.4508 and 1.4497. My target is 1.4550 area.
I am watching this also. It zoned in on a nice daily pivot and the bigger picture looks like a rounded retest. :-)
  • #608
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:51am Jun 9, 2011 9:51am
Quoting cprao
Jon, On GBPCHF, my 2 cents.. does this make any sense to you ?
to be honest i hadnt thought that far ahead but looks good to me..

congrats on the eu/nz trade

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #609
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:19pm Jun 9, 2011 8:19pm
rounded retest coming into play here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #610
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:53pm Jun 9, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting dangerman
rounded retest coming into play here?
I have my sell order placed for the same at 1.4562.
  • #611
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:59pm Jun 9, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
to be honest i hadnt thought that far ahead but looks good to me..

congrats on the eu/nz trade

jon
Thank you. EU/NZ is closed at 1.7510.
  • #612
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:08am Jun 10, 2011 2:08am
Hey Guys, Tom

I have got very excited when EURUSD came crashing down to the 1.45 level which I considered to be a strong level, and put in a limit buy order to the pip. It got hit and then moved in my direction about 40pips then fell off

My question is, was there anything wrong with putting in a buy order at 1.45 or can we consider this to be a good setup regardless of its outcome?

It has not reached 1.45 in a rounded retest, in fact a very strong H&S formation on 4hrs/1hrs, would this have invalidated the setup?

Your thoughts?

Cheers
Tradelog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #613
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:56am Jun 10, 2011 2:56am
Quoting simplebeans
Tom or anyone else just to get some hindsight analysis on the AUD/USD H1 rounded retest. The red arrow indicates my entry point i just wanted to get some insight as you can see the price came back once before bouncing but as it wasnt on a daily S/R pivot i had drawn i carried on waiting. Then it came back again this time touching my S/R pivot before going long on it way up.

I just wondered as price had already been back once in hingsight would that have invalidated this setup or as i did would you have still taken it? :-)

Attachment ...
Normally if it comes close and then bounces hard it invalidates the setup for me. However, the AUD/USD is particularly fond of rallying soon after breaking swing lows so in this case, if you have a level beneath a swing low it is a killer setup in this pair.

Someone remind me about this in the webinar on Sunday and I will go over it because this particular pattern is extremely reliable.

And we're talking extremely reliable.
  • #614
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:57am Jun 10, 2011 2:57am
Quoting cprao
I have my sell order placed for the same at 1.4562.
You and the rest of the world :-)

But it got a little front run there.
  • #615
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:01am Jun 10, 2011 3:01am
Quoting Tradelog
Hey Guys, Tom

I have got very excited when EURUSD came crashing down to the 1.45 level which I considered to be a strong level, and put in a limit buy order to the pip. It got hit and then moved in my direction about 40pips then fell off

My question is, was there anything wrong with putting in a buy order at 1.45 or can we consider this to be a good setup regardless of its outcome?

It has not reached 1.45 in a rounded retest, in fact a very strong H&S formation on 4hrs/1hrs, would this have invalidated the setup?

Your thoughts?

Cheers
Tradelog...
I think 1.4510 was a good level to look for longs and it was a rounded retest on the H1 but I pulled my order as we posted the BEOB after breaking the H&S neck line right as price traded into the level.

As you saw, it squeezed it a little and then bounced.

If your target was 1.4563 (and I believe it should have been on this trade) and you took this trade, it shouldn't have been a loser if you had kept in mind your "evolving R".
  • #616
  • Jun 10, 2011 5:08am Jun 10, 2011 5:08am
Quoting the_wizard
I think 1.4510 was a good level to look for longs and it was a rounded retest on the H1 but I pulled my order as we posted the BEOB after breaking the H&S neck line right as price traded into the level.

As you saw, it squeezed it a little and then bounced.

If your target was 1.4563 (and I believe it should have been on this trade) and you took this trade, it shouldn't have been a loser if you had kept in mind your "evolving R".
Yes my target was the low of the H&S and I got out at break even.

The pinbar on H1 could have been a clear indication to take profits in line with the evolving R concept.

Thanks Tom!

Cheers

TL
  • #617
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:06am Jun 10, 2011 6:06am
Just subscribing guys!! Great thread. Looking forward to joining in the webinars, learning LOTS and contributing wherever I can!!
  • #618
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:44am Jun 10, 2011 7:44am
Quoting the_wizard
You and the rest of the world :-)

But it got a little front run there.
Yes.
Cancelled the order.. missed by 13 pips + spread.

Tom, In this case, do you still keep the order for another bounce to the level (1.4563) or you will cancel the order ?
  • #619
  • Jun 10, 2011 11:10am Jun 10, 2011 11:10am
Tight stop on this one!
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  • #620
  • Jun 10, 2011 11:17am Jun 10, 2011 11:17am
Forgot to show Fib confluence.
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