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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,681
  • Edited 3:09am Jun 8, 2011 2:58am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting luSan
leigh,
welcome back to this universe.
I believe that your comments about leverage and comission are wise.
-I do not use leverage anymore.-
Well... I have them in mind.
-I hate to take all the risks and to pay a comission to a broker that took NONE!-
I wish others consider them too.
But to no avail, people have to find their own ways
in this trading world.

Cheers,
Luis
Same here LuSan, no leverage also, which puts us beyond defeat but it doesn't necessarily mean we can defeat the enemy. Zero leverage is not always enough to do that if we have nothing left to attack.

IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.
4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.
5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.
6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.
7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.
8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.
9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!"
10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.
11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.
12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage.
13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.
14. Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.
15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law, and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is in his power to control success.
17. In respect of military method, we have, firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity; thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances; fifthly, Victory.
18. Measurement owes its existence to Earth; Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to Estimation of quantity; Balancing of chances to Calculation; and Victory to Balancing of chances.
19. A victorious army opposed to a routed one, is as a pound's weight placed in the scale against a single grain.
20. The onrush of a conquering force is like the bursting of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep.
  • #25,682
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:19am Jun 8, 2011 3:19am
Quoting leighsww
Hi Zoran ...

Please tell your Dad to watch the documentary, as I'm sure PADMA could help his circulation problems due to his diabetes. Towards the latter part of the movie, the man who had lived from his heart condition talks about the man whose legs were saved by taking PADMA.

Take care!
Hi Leigh

I've purchased 5 boxes of Padma and I've sent 3 boxes to my dad (the other 2 I will use with my wife). The problem now is, he's telling me he doesn't need any tables. I tried to explain that these are natural tablets but unfortunately he doesn't seem interested. I suppose we get more stubborn as we get older. Do you have any advice? I will speak to my mother and see if she can help.

Getting the video to him will be difficult as he is in Aus and I'm in Europe at the moment. I'll see what I can work out though.
  • #25,683
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:20am Jun 8, 2011 3:20am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...75718320110608
  • #25,684
  • Jun 8, 2011 5:11am Jun 8, 2011 5:11am
Quoting Zoran
Hi Leigh

I've purchased 5 boxes of Padma and I've sent 3 boxes to my dad (the other 2 I will use with my wife). The problem now is, he's telling me he doesn't need any tables. I tried to explain that these are natural tablets but unfortunately he doesn't seem interested. I suppose we get more stubborn as we get older. Do you have any advice? I will speak to my mother and see if she can help.

Getting the video to him will be difficult as he is in Aus and I'm in Europe at the moment. I'll see what I can work out though.
Zoran,
Maybe you can approach your old man this way-- It's a culture experience. In Asia, herb is not necesoryly medicine. It's our life style. During Summer, we add some herb in dishes to help reducing inner fire. During Winter, we add some herb in dishes to help strengthening energy. And so on... Most of Asia people who care about health use some herb recipes in their kitchen. If possible(not lazy, have money), we normally take herbl food regulary.
Here's some pictures of the herbs that made the PADMA28, I translated their formular to Chinse (under some chinese herb doctors' help over net). If you send the pictures to your dad, he might be interested in tasting them :-)
http://baike.baidu.com/view/1091521.htm

http://baike.baidu.com/view/1072837.html

http://baike.baidu.com/view/19848.htm

http://baike.baidu.com/view/685091.html

http://baike.baidu.com/view/40498.html
  • #25,685
  • Jun 8, 2011 6:17am Jun 8, 2011 6:17am
Hello!

Wow... I stumbled onto this thread only a couple of days ago, certainly one of the best threads I've ever come across and I'm only up to page 85

I come from an arts background and have been live trading for just one year after demo trading a year, self teaching through the web and so a thread like this absolutely beyond doubt invaluable... thanks to all the contributors, I feel less isolated when reading your observations, can empathize and feel myself growing from your words written years ago now.

fti, it sounds like you have an incredible life and it is immensely generous of you to share your knowledge here, god bless you - I am sorry to hear of your health and I wish you all the best, you are a great man

I'm only just at the beginning of this thread and hopefully my trading journey too, I can't contribute much here but I just wanted to say thanks, and how much this info means to me.... fti, your stories and teachings cross the boundaries of trading and life skills, they will stay with me...

Love and light

☯
  • #25,686
  • Edited 6:47am Jun 8, 2011 6:36am | Edited 6:47am
Quoting Setebos
Hey guys,

hope you are all keeping well and it's great to see fti is back despite the tough time he's going through - it's a real example in life.

Anyone knows anything about these guys? I love the video they've put together

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
Hi Friends!

I'm allmost back to the markets, after I had some very nice guests from Singapore for some days. Beside what the guys in the video are demonstrating and stating - meeting some of your trding buddies in person, even when they are away some thousand kilometers, is a great gift.

Yeah - I like trading!

Also a very special and deep "Hi and welcome back" to Leighswww.
Cool to see you in here :-)

All the best,
Niels
  • #25,687
  • Jun 8, 2011 6:59am Jun 8, 2011 6:59am
Quoting rob_deniro
Hello!

Wow... I stumbled onto this thread only a couple of days ago, certainly one of the best threads I've ever come across and I'm only up to page 85

I come from an arts background and have been live trading for just one year after demo trading a year, self teaching through the web and so a thread like this absolutely beyond doubt invaluable... thanks to all the contributors, I feel less isolated when reading your observations, can empathize and feel myself growing from your words written years ago now.

fti, it sounds like you have an incredible...
Welcome! Rob_Deniro

Read on! It's not always easy but well worth the journey.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #25,688
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:01am Jun 8, 2011 7:01am
Welcome back Mamood!
  • #25,689
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:02am Jun 8, 2011 7:02am
http://www.bitcoin.org/

http://www.weusecoins.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

... and we thought we already had seen it all ....

Rgs,

Textor
  • #25,690
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:03am Jun 8, 2011 7:03am
Quoting the redlion
if the mindset and the method is sound

the account value is of no relevance

if i cannot make a 1000 account grow or i blow it

100000 its all the same.

same M.O same results the $ is as importance as the toilet paper you wipe your butt with.

"the control of a large force is the same as the control of a small force" ---the art of war
Hi Redlion,

My opinion about your statement is split into 2 pieces.

First I strongly agree with it, cause you should be able to master a small acount first and feel confortable with the sizes, especially when things are going against you. The question is, if you are able to handle the pain with larger numbers ....

On the other hand I very strongly disagree with your statement. It is all about Risk Management. You have to have a certain size of account in relation to minimum Lotsize supported by your broker. For example 3000 USD with a minilot from my experience (finally) is not appropriate. So at least you need to have a minimum account size to be able to keep your risk in control in the markets. For acccount sizes below 1000USD a scout of even a microlot might be very close to over exposure already.

And I'm not talking about a reasonable size to make your living out of trading. That is just another story on top ....

Feel free to ask anything about that.
It is very crucial to have the correct understanding of how the numbers work together ....

CU,
Niels
  • #25,691
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:09am Jun 8, 2011 7:09am
Quoting imjscn
Zoran,
Maybe you can approach your old man this way-- It's a culture experience. In Asia, herb is not necesoryly medicine. It's our life style. During Summer, we add some herb in dishes to help reducing inner fire. During Winter, we add some herb in dishes to help strengthening energy. And so on... Most of Asia people who care about health use some herb recipes in their kitchen. If possible(not lazy, have money), we normally take herbl food regulary.
Here's some pictures of the herbs that made the PADMA28, I translated their formular to Chinse...
Thanks for that

I have spoken to my mother and she will explain to him that the tablets are made of natural extracts and it can help him. If he continues to refuse then I will just have to let him be. My mother said she will take them instead.
  • #25,692
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:32am Jun 8, 2011 7:32am
Hi again,

still reading the detailed posts of yours, Leigh (was missing them for a long time now). But also something from Lusan and Zoran. Will reply in more detail later, but will throw in something important (at least from my point of view).

From my understanding there is something essential miussing in your thoughts:

Managing your exposure actively!

There is no need to let a bad placed rescue run against your for 10, 20 or 100 pips. If your trading idea, the flow, that you have been following so far changes, you just have to manage your exposure immideately and very actively. I think it was named as to be nimble and also like "defending your position"....

Not sure if got your message completely now (will reread for sure), but it seems that this part of fti's teachings got lost completely ...

Back to reading ...

CU,
Niels
  • #25,693
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:46am Jun 8, 2011 7:46am
Quoting the redlion
if the mindset and the method is sound

the account value is of no relevance

if i cannot make a 1000 account grow or i blow it

100000 its all the same.

same M.O same results the $ is as importance as the toilet paper you wipe your butt with.

"the control of a large force is the same as the control of a small force" ---the art of war
Hi ALL,
@Fana & Gart,

i believe you are both on the same page.
You are booth saying the same thing. One is talking about the mindset ("YOU")ingredient for trading and one is talking about the Capital ingredient.
this is the same side of the coin.

@ redlion.
you need think a little deeper. Generally you are correct
"if you cannot make money trading a 1000 account the same would apply to a 10000 account."
but there is difference.

One example is the small cap account and me on the usd/yen that i talked about.small cap took extensive damage, whereas the ability of contingency of cash rescue took book back close to breakeven.
You see, leverage levels and contingency avalability can make a difference in the health of book. Availability of contingency, affords the book, last resort for recovery,if trader remains nimble enough to recover. But off course if trader is against trend utimately, nothing can save book.

Also if book trading exposure of 1000 and 10000 book was same in % wise exposure, there would be no difference in strategic advantage.

So in fact your statement is correct and also wrong. It depends on the trader mindset and cap.

Another factor is broker. Some allow more flexible MM possibilities than others. Somebrokers trade in fixed minimum ticket requirements and some trade even for just $1. This is because of the cost in transaction by broker setup. Spot Interbank brokers like some retail brokers, they charge a fee for transactions, and that is reson why they only capture less than 10% of most spot interbank transaction. Mostly spot interbank transaction is done direct bank to bank, because the bro can be very expensive factor to cost of transactions.

regards
  • #25,694
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:50am Jun 8, 2011 7:50am
Quoting indianguyinny24
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...75718320110608
default?
default and your goodwill goes to ZERO.
resheduleing debt already can do great damage to credit ratings.
Default and is end game.
Ask any bank, default withdrawals and the run on the bank will kill it.
Default interest payments alredy signals insolvency.
Pray there is no run(flight for safety).
And in this case the major credittors had voiced their stance.

. i hope the big John, he is rethinking?

Which child is managing this, huh?

regards
  • #25,695
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:57am Jun 8, 2011 7:57am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
@Fana & Gart,

i believe you are both on the same page.
You are booth saying the same thing. One is talking about the mindset ("YOU")ingredient for trading and one is talking about the Capital ingredient.
this is the same side of the coin.

@ redlion.
you need think a little deeper. Generally you are correct
"if you cannot make money trading a 1000 account the same would apply to a 10000 account."
but there is difference.

One example is the small cap account and me on the usd/yen that i talked about.small cap took extensive damage,...

Hi fti,

great to see you posting and posting and posting :-)
Hope you have a proper Energy management implemented ....

Just great how you have said the above very clear, was not able to adress it that sharp!

RESPECT!
Still a long way to go for me ...

BTW: learned a lot from my guest from SG and also about deliecious foods like Steamboat, different Chilies, Bakwa, Jag Fruit ....


All the best,
Niels
  • #25,696
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:59am Jun 8, 2011 7:59am
Quoting imjscn
Zoran,
Maybe you can approach your old man this way-- It's a culture experience. In Asia, herb is not necesoryly medicine. It's our life style. During Summer, we add some herb in dishes to help reducing inner fire. During Winter, we add some herb in dishes to help strengthening energy. And so on... Most of Asia people who care about health use some herb recipes in their kitchen. If possible(not lazy, have money), we normally take herbl food regulary.
Here's some pictures of the herbs that made the PADMA28, I translated their formular to Chinse...
thanks imjscn, for the formula effeort.
2 phamacys approached here is unable to help.
I am extremely surprised that this eastern medicine is unavailable in Asia.

regards
  • #25,697
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:06am Jun 8, 2011 8:06am
Quoting textor
http://www.bitcoin.org/

http://www.weusecoins.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

... and we thought we already had seen it all ....

Rgs,

Textor
textor.
bit coins, beans, ms dollars......
Please wait until this thngy becomes legal tender somewhere on earth, and have well defined monetary policies and economic signficance.

Meantime can use the banana notes and your favorite retailer gift volchures.

regards
  • #25,698
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:07am Jun 8, 2011 8:07am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
@Fana & Gart,

i believe you are both on the same page.
You are booth saying the same thing. One is talking about the mindset ("YOU")ingredient for trading and one is talking about the Capital ingredient.
this is the same side of the coin.

@ redlion.
you need think a little deeper. Generally you are correct
"if you cannot make money trading a 1000 account the same would apply to a 10000 account."
but there is difference.

One example is the small cap account and me on the usd/yen that i talked about.small cap took extensive...
Hi Fti.
  • #25,699
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:11am Jun 8, 2011 8:11am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks for that

I have spoken to my mother and she will explain to him that the tablets are made of natural extracts and it can help him. If he continues to refuse then I will just have to let him be. My mother said she will take them instead.
Zoran,
maybe try it this way.
Try tell him, that this not medicine.
Its only food suppliment.
It cannot kill him because its only food, the ingredients are netural plants. so the chemical presence is not inlithal quantities.
Failing which ask mom cook it in his food.

regards
  • #25,700
  • Edited 8:35am Jun 8, 2011 8:20am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

great to see you posting and posting and posting :-)
Hope you have a proper Energy management implemented ....

Just great how you have said the above very clear, was not able to adress it that sharp!

RESPECT!
Still a long way to go for me ...

BTW: learned a lot from my guest from SG and also about deliecious foods like Steamboat, different Chilies, Bakwa, Jag Fruit ....


All the best,
Niels
MaMood,
yes, gained some energy now and the red eyes and blue blacks clearing.
When I told mom about Padma, and as she went out hunting for supplys, she introduced to me chinese soup remedy. Takes her 5 to 6 hours slow boiling(charcoal fire) it in red dates and ginger. It produces lots wind, so i am farting like petroleum gas well. Discomfort inheart how moving southwards to stomach and bowel product is liquids. There is a big big storm in the stomach, but no pains.It grawling like tiger.
Best thing is not feel faintish and neusea, but still tend sleep alot. And i also taking my meds as scheduled.

I see your guest introduced you SEAsia cusines, liking it?

regards
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