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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,621
  • Edited 2:12pm Jun 6, 2011 1:20pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
I thought it is 50$ after u subscribe...


Padma 28 amazon

V
That is a much better price than buying it directly off of EcoNugenic's website --> http://tinyurl.com/4xzpvvy (under "Place Your Order" click on the "Options" drop-down menu to see the 180 capsules price. Price is $94.95).

I haven't purchased PADMA for a while, so I am so glad to see that the price is coming down and it is available in more places! (I did not buy mine from Amazon in the past)

But, you might be able to get it even cheaper than U.S. prices, indianguyinny24, if you are outside the U.S. and can purchase it under a closer country to you. Anyway, worth checking the Distributor list found on the manufacturer's website just to make sure. No sense pay higher prices if you don't have to.

Quoting Zoran
Padma Basic is the same formula as the European product, Padma 28, sold in Denmark, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. (Padma 28 sold in Switzerland, Poland, and Lithuania contain one additional ingredient: aconite.)
Interesting because when I was first researching the PADMA, I read that some of the ingredients in PADMA 28 weren't allowed in the U.S. so the U.S. version lacks a few ingredients. Maybe the U.S. version of PADMA Basic is even different than the PADMA Basic in other countries. Who knows.

Anyway, you can find the entire list of ingredients from the materials on the websites of those selling either PADMA 28 or PADMA Basic.

Okay, guys, I gotta go, so if there are no more questions, I will be back to post a couple last things sometime during the week. Take care!
  • #25,622
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:17pm Jun 6, 2011 2:17pm
I just edited the link to the EcoNugenic's website above, because there was an affiliate link embedded in it (I had found the site link through Google search), so instead I went directly to the EcoNugenic's website and redid the link to remove the affiliate link.

Just thought I'd mention it, cuz I prefer not to have any affiliate links when posting info (it wasn't my affiliate link, but people might not know that).

Anyone who ever clicked on the link previous to my editing it, you may have to clear your cookie for that site address to remove any affiliate link info.
  • #25,623
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:14pm Jun 6, 2011 8:14pm
Hi everyone! Just wanted to pass along something that I saw today on Bloomberg TV. It was an interview with John Taylor from FX Concepts. He seemed very concerned about currencies and even used the word dangerous at one point. He is short the euro and long the dollar, at least for the next few weeks. He believes that something big is possible within the next few days or weeks. Not sure any of that means anything to us, but given he runs the biggest currency hedge fund, it seems interesting that he is a dollar bull right now. Thought you would like to know, but don't trade it unless you see it!
  • #25,624
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:59pm Jun 6, 2011 8:59pm
Hi all!
Can somebody explain how do they fire up this "rocket" please?
Thanks,
Jaro
Attached Image
  • #25,625
  • Edited 9:11pm Jun 6, 2011 9:10pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting Jaro
Hi all!
Can somebody explain how do they fire up this "rocket" please?
Thanks,
Jaro
News missile duck hunt LOL
  • #25,626
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:32pm Jun 6, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting tubguy
News missile duck hunt LOL
I know! But how do they do it???????
  • #25,627
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:44pm Jun 6, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi everyone! Just wanted to pass along something that I saw today on Bloomberg TV. It was an interview with John Taylor from FX Concepts. He seemed very concerned about currencies and even used the word dangerous at one point. He is short the euro and long the dollar, at least for the next few weeks. He believes that something big is possible within the next few days or weeks. Not sure any of that means anything to us, but given he runs the biggest currency hedge fund, it seems interesting that he is a dollar bull right now. Thought you would like...
Pump and Dump?
  • #25,628
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:05pm Jun 6, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting Jaro
I know! But how do they do it???????
I'll have to leave that part to Fti. I'm not that smart.

I know they shoot bad! Took 2 shots to get that duck!
  • #25,629
  • Jun 6, 2011 11:20pm Jun 6, 2011 11:20pm
Yes, they use heavy artillery to shoot small ducks!
Or maybe some big were hiding there?
  • #25,630
  • Edited 1:55am Jun 7, 2011 1:28am | Edited 1:55am
haha, I get it wrong, so go back and fix. Exercise in patience and ego I guess Yea, rigid. Need to be following flow, create better strategies. I'm trying to read a few pages, copy down key points and run demo specifically focusing on those few points over and over. Not catching knife is very useful lesson. Not to be suckered into figs..patience to wait for ducks to die and pick up where left off (one of many many types of strategy)

How they fire up the rocket..I'm not sure. I think fti mentioned that one way is to pump the crosses...or maybe that was explanation for something else. It's market sweep, kill sitting duck levels where stops are held with high vol. Once they out, move in for scavenge. Market was very thin before in chart...big players maybe out of market there all together and hide orders in vol..But no more speculating..forms rigidity. I stop now.


Quoting fti
ya ya, not go rub fp the wrong way, he's young and learning in demo. maybe he turned in time. We not know yet.
be kind, and be good mentor.

regards

For me I am alittle sad, because someone tried follow me charge up the yen hill, on a downhill charge. Although i will make good the $$$, but nevertheless feels sad, for suffering, although not mine.

OMG its night time, Thought was morning.
  • #25,631
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:37am Jun 7, 2011 3:37am
Hey guys,

hope you are all keeping well and it's great to see fti is back despite the tough time he's going through - it's a real example in life.

Anyone knows anything about these guys? I love the video they've put together

Inserted Video
  • #25,632
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:57am Jun 7, 2011 3:57am
Quoting Setebos
Hey guys,

hope you are all keeping well and it's great to see fti is back despite the tough time he's going through - it's a real example in life.

Anyone knows anything about these guys? I love the video they've put together

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
no idea, but it is intriguing.. thanks for sharing it.
  • #25,633
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:58am Jun 7, 2011 3:58am
Quoting fullperson
haha, I get it wrong, so go back and fix. Exercise in patience and ego I guess Yea, rigid. Need to be following flow, create better strategies. I'm trying to read a few pages, copy down key points and run demo specifically focusing on those few points over and over. Not catching knife is very useful lesson. Not to be suckered into figs..patience to wait for ducks to die and pick up where left off (one of many many types of strategy)

How they fire up the rocket..I'm not sure. I think fti mentioned that one way is to pump the crosses...or maybe...
first paragraph on your post says that you are on the right track.

second paragraph says you cannot let go of your old ways.

discipline?
  • #25,634
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:59am Jun 7, 2011 3:59am
Quoting GEfx
Hi everyone! Just wanted to pass along something that I saw today on Bloomberg TV. It was an interview with John Taylor from FX Concepts. He seemed very concerned about currencies and even used the word dangerous at one point. He is short the euro and long the dollar, at least for the next few weeks. He believes that something big is possible within the next few days or weeks. Not sure any of that means anything to us, but given he runs the biggest currency hedge fund, it seems interesting that he is a dollar bull right now. Thought you would like...
most likely it means he needs a market of suckers to dump his eur shorts

no offense but didn't you learn anything from fti?
  • #25,635
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:16am Jun 7, 2011 4:16am
Hi guys, I need check for understanding via discussion. Topic about GreenDavid's post #129. Things in parenthesis is my thoughts.

-His strategy was to find opening to join in daily down trend. (viable strategy, but time scope would be large)
-he sighted the 4hr scope and 15 min for trading (very choppy I guess) for timing, seeking weakness (good to seek weakness, not sure if weakness was confirmed by 15min. On 15min it formed a flag pattern, which is continuation)
-scout was entered at 109.86 (ok)
-after scout in, watching markets..sees that there is no strength, but moving down slowly (no strong move...why so quiet? Better to wait it out on scout only, keeping position in play until price shows threat)
-woke up friday, caught in news problems (scope was too large and left baby unattended as a result. But it is good that he was going w/ daily trend for overnight positions. However, failed to watch for fed activity. This would negate the trade's purpose immediately. There is no option to rescue as terrain changed, so immediate damage control necessary).
-saw resistance at 110.5, wanted to see how price would react. Price moved down but would not break 110 (why not out yet? Example of HOPE. Did not notice ground has shifted, so bad trade is not mis-timing. It is bad strategy/analysis thus no strong reason to rescue a bad trade)
-price broke 110.5, formed shooting star, hope came (really should be out by now, it is now "paralysis")


Please check for understanding. Topics for discussion:
-Was David aligned with daily trend? (I have hard time reading daily trend, as generally I do not even sight the daily for more than 2 mins a day for bias).
-Importance of correct strategy/analysis (scope, fed activity)
-Hope
-Continuing analysis after trade (momentum in favor of your analysis? Patterns)

Personally if daily, 1hr and 4hr confirmed I may have entered a scout on 5min to get in step w/ daily. Then I would have watched and seen lack of follow of my analysis (momentum/strength). At that point I would have exited with a few pips, seeking a more comfortable level to try again. Of course while waiting I would have seen the flag formation indicating upside continuation. At this point I may re-consider my strategy, as waiting for the south bus may not be viable anymore (please check, is this pig flip-flop thought process? )

Thank you

Quoting Green_David
Dear fti and all the fellow traders:

This is a USD/JPY trade I did last week, but with problems now(about -120 pips).

Back ground: On Tuesday and Wednesday, Dow Jones Index had two consecutive huge increases. U/J is generally positively correlated with DJIA. Bearing in mind that U/J is on a down trend daily and it has two consecutive increases of 300 pips for two days, the chances that it may finish retracement(deemed it as a retracement, since we never know it is a first wave of up-trend or just a correction) and continue down trend....
  • #25,636
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:23am Jun 7, 2011 4:23am
Quoting fullperson
Hi guys, I need check for understanding via discussion. Topic about GreenDavid's post #129. Things in parenthesis is my thoughts.

-His strategy was to find opening to join in daily down trend. (viable strategy, but time scope would be large)
-he sighted the 4hr scope and 15 min for trading (very choppy I guess) for timing, seeking weakness (good to seek weakness, not sure if weakness was confirmed by 15min. On 15min it formed a flag pattern, which is continuation)
-scout was entered at 109.86 (ok)
-after scout in, watching markets..sees...
It is all wrong and you should know it by now. What is your question?
  • #25,637
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:27am Jun 7, 2011 4:27am
thanks for keeping me in check. Speculating is bad, but the ranged slow weakness would have been detected in flow. If dancing properly, would either have closed out positions from ride or closed out any kind of scout (I have not been trading recently). Just sitting on sidelines waiting for show hand prob. As fti notes, during times of poor liquidity, be careful of sudden volatility. So no rigidity yet, just being careful.



Quoting piccolo
first paragraph on your post says that you are on the right track.

second paragraph says you cannot let go of your old ways.

discipline?
  • #25,638
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:30am Jun 7, 2011 4:30am
I was checking for understanding. If read something wrong in post, mention please.

For the record, you should not dismiss the example as "all wrong". GreenDavid did make an attempt at analysis and he did attempt to time his move using larger and then smaller scopes.

I realized that I had not replied to the earlier posts, so I am doing them now. Especially for the mindset stuff.
  • #25,639
  • Jun 7, 2011 7:15am Jun 7, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Setebos
Hey guys,

hope you are all keeping well and it's great to see fti is back despite the tough time he's going through - it's a real example in life.

Anyone knows anything about these guys? I love the video they've put together

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1

Hey setebos,

May I ask you or anyone else, how you got that video embedded? I tried every code
under the share button on youtube last night and could not get it to work. It only showed the code in my post. Don't know what I'm missing.

Thanks and Good Trading
Mike
  • #25,640
  • Jun 7, 2011 7:29am Jun 7, 2011 7:29am
Quoting fullperson
Hi guys, I need check for understanding via discussion. Topic about GreenDavid's post #129. Things in parenthesis is my thoughts.

-His strategy was to find opening to join in daily down trend. (viable strategy, but time scope would be large)
-he sighted the 4hr scope and 15 min for trading (very choppy I guess) for timing, seeking weakness (good to seek weakness, not sure if weakness was confirmed by 15min. On 15min it formed a flag pattern, which is continuation)
-scout was entered at 109.86 (ok)
-after scout in, watching markets..sees that...
hi, FP.

Thank you for bringing up such an old post. Shorting USD/JPY at that time around 110 is a good trade, if stop loss is 500 pips (114.43 is the highest after that setup). Because, after that setup from the beginning of 2008, you have plenty of times to take more than 2000 pips of profit.

So it depends on your time frame. If I traded by weekly time frame with corresponding stop loss, it was a wonderful setup. If I traded by 1h time frame, it was a lousy setup, because it was against 1h trend of that time.

Timing is not so important, I think. If you shorted the highest price, and it went down 500 pips right after your setup, but you made only 30 pips of profit, so what is the use of good timing?

PA (price action) or forms etc. are also fallacy and bullshit as indicators just like that failed shooting star. The trend is king, the only friend that can help you make profits.

The so called head and shoulders, tripple tops, M tops, triangles, flags ect. are all bullshit! You don't believe it? OK. go check chapter "Failed Forms" of Jorn Murphy's "Futures market technical analysis".

If you want to discuss more details, pls PM me.

David
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