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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #96,161
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:42am Jun 8, 2011 1:42am
Quoting CavinK
Hi Masters,

I've been staying in this FF for quite a long time since last Oct and just keep studying silently with respect to all masters here. must say that it's really a treasure for all retail traders like me, thank you very much.

But in another point, studying silently may not a good method, hv been demoing for more than 7 months, now I just reached a stage---> continuously loosing...LOL, really frustrating sometimes, I just posted 2 my typical trade here, would you masters diagnoze it please?
I see You have your buy order in place. Be carrefull becouse You are fighting with strong parabolic move. Tight management is the way to go here. Personally i would skip that trade any day but thats just me and it could work for You.
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  • #96,162
  • Edited 2:16am Jun 8, 2011 1:44am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting CavinK
Hi Masters,

I've been staying in this FF for quite a long time since last Oct and just keep studying silently with respect to all masters here. must say that it's really a treasure for all retail traders like me, thank you very much.

But in another point, studying silently may not a good method, hv been demoing for more than 7 months, now I just reached a stage---> continuously loosing...LOL, really frustrating sometimes, I just posted 2 my typical trade here, would you masters diagnoze it please?
without being a master, my 2 - soon to be worthless - cents:

1. gbp/chf, gbp/jpy it's the same thing - basically it's the 2 remaining safe haven currencies(jpy and chf). You're basically doubling up your trade. Don't; not ever, not never. Don't double up!

2. now checking, the gbp/jpy is on profit. So... what's the problem?

Didn't watch it today and no charts around. But, even if you're on profit:

a. if you want to trade on shorter time frames(and I can understand that, I don't have patience for long moves either) you should be very acutely aware of the prevailing conditions. GBP ain't exactly star right now and this week news are bad. Further more, everyone knows it won't be a rate hike tommorow

b. look at risk/reward; don't mash buttons. If you want to mash buttons, buy a game(it's fundamentally cheaper - trust me, I've payed for this lesson with... many dvds).

A decent sl, looking at the graphic(gbp/jpy - jpy is weaker then chf, so naturally I'd long against jpy) is 130.5(I think). You don't put it at 130.5 because everyone sees 130.5 so you're begging for stop hunt; so you put it at 130.4. Even if you do a TP at 131.9x, the R/R is bad. You risk 80(I understand you go in at 131.2 - again, all I have is the pic you posted) + 6 spread(3 when going in, 3 when going out) to make under 70. It's under 1/1.

3. eur/cad - you want to catch a major move. Don't keep it extremely tight - you're begging to be hit on your sl. Furthermore, plan ahead - the major thing is trichet's conference tommorow. That'll trigger the next leg - if you enter in advance - let the sl very loose, so you can last till then. Or stay on the side. But if you went in, make sure you have enough fuel to last till the trigger... take a smaller position, add up, whatever, but don't stop midway...

Imho, the messages were clear - europe isn't too happy with the current level of euro, so trichet will probably be more dovish than expected and euro will stumble. But that's my speculation which ain't worth even the bandwidth it wastes.
You can either position yourself ahead of the news and trade the news(but then you should leave enough room so you actually last till then... otherwise your action is pointless) or trade post factum(probably giving away abit, but gaining additional safety).

But, one way or another, eur/cad trade is imho trading the news of ecb press conference.

You can't say with a honest face you're taking a technical trade with a pin... 25% the size of the previous bar. At least not if you put your stop at the end of the pin - it's technically too little room for such a major move.

Basically, you want a move of at least 300 pips(though, even a retracement could probably run to 1.38, so even if you half/half 1.40/1.38 it's 400 pips) while risking... 30. That's bernanke's printing press, not real world.
  • #96,163
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:53am Jun 8, 2011 1:53am
Thanks for all your valuable response, really helpful.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #96,164
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:40am Jun 8, 2011 2:40am
Quoting hotjoey
Mike,
thank you for your contribution to this thread and kind help when guys in need. could you please give me some URL I can learn how to draw PPZ?

best regards, Joey
Hi ya Joey..

This should help I hope..It's a video in the Guest material section of the James16 Group.. http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html

Cheers,
Adrian
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  • #96,165
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:49am Jun 8, 2011 3:49am
Quoting ddinnov
I took this regardless of being warned off it by several seniors. Just closed it manually for 0.8% loss rather than risk a full bar hit.

I was watching the level so when I saw the pin I got too trigger happy.

reason for not taking this one is the size of the bar compared to the previous bars and move. It's better to see a bigger bar with a stronger close vs smaller/weaker previous bars. This signals a change in direction as opposed to what this one looks like which is a stop and pause at the PPZ level then possibly a breakthough, retest and...

Try a 10-15 pip buffer on daily PB's. Keeps me out of bars like this one.

As you said, the uptrend bars certainly overpower that Poodle PB.
The main lesson here I think, is not taking any PA setups, till they break.

I also used to jump the gun on PA setups and have since learned my lesson.
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  • #96,166
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:02am Jun 8, 2011 4:02am
Quoting Pinbar
Try a 10-15 pip buffer on daily PB's. Keeps me out of bars like this one.

As you said, the uptrend bars certainly overpower that Poodle PB.
The main lesson here I think, is not taking any PA setups, till they break.

I also used to jump the gun on PA setups and have since learned my lesson.
Thank you Pinbar...great knowhow sharing.
Could you please specify bit detail on 10~15 pips buffer? could not catch exactly the point, thank you.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #96,167
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:21am Jun 8, 2011 4:21am
Quoting CavinK
Thank you Pinbar...great knowhow sharing.
Could you please specify bit detail on 10~15 pips buffer? could not catch exactly the point, thank you.
Hi CavinK, i notice hes is not online right now so what he means is we put 10-15 pips on top of the price of the bars high/low (+ spread) for our entry price. that way we are more sure of the break and dont get dragged into trades simply becouse price hit the lows/highs of the bars before taking off again.

From what i see from your charts you are going in the right direction mate
you ve got the right idea. as simple as this stuff is in principal it is far from easy. keep at it and keep patient. Remember the details...bar size(important) bar shape..did it close bullish/bearish was the close near the lows/highs...etc
hope this helps
keep posting, as you can see eveyone is happy to help and give there views when they can


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #96,168
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:22am Jun 8, 2011 4:22am
Quoting CavinK
Thank you Pinbar...great knowhow sharing.
Could you please specify bit detail on 10~15 pips buffer? could not catch exactly the point, thank you.

Say for example the low of this PB was 1.8700 we would put a sell stop order 10-15 pips below this price for a bearish setup and above this price for a bullish setup. This keeps us out of PA setups that go 5 pips in our direction then reverse on us.
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  • #96,169
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:24am Jun 8, 2011 4:24am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Joey..

This should help I hope..It's a video in the Guest material section of the James16 Group.. http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html

Cheers,
Adrian
thank you very much.

best regards, Joey
  • #96,170
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:32am Jun 8, 2011 4:32am
Hi Guys

Did anyone else notice this DBLHC on EuAud? it closed strongly through ppz and above RN at 1.37. I saw it but could not ee any other confluence and was wondering what you guys think of this one? Comments and thoughts welcome.

Kal
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  • #96,171
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:41am Jun 8, 2011 4:41am
Quoting Kalbar
Hi Guys

Did anyone else notice this DBLHC on EuAud? it closed strongly through ppz and above RN at 1.37. I saw it but could not ee any other confluence and was wondering what you guys think of this one? Comments and thoughts welcome.

Kal
I am quite a junior here, just put my thoughts here and welcome any comments.
I think the DBLHC was not located at the swing low point and the close already touched 1.37, saw a lot of cases that the price got reversed (it didn't in this case).
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #96,172
  • Jun 8, 2011 5:22am Jun 8, 2011 5:22am
Quoting Kalbar
Hi Guys

Did anyone else notice this DBLHC on EuAud? it closed strongly through ppz and above RN at 1.37. I saw it but could not ee any other confluence and was wondering what you guys think of this one? Comments and thoughts welcome.

Kal
hey Kalbar, i saw this too but i had an entry planned for the break of the TL (see chart) news caused price to brake that area and i missed my entry. For that reason i passed the trade, i was tempted to take the 1H BUOB but decided i was chasing price and already had euro trades running. For me not a bad contuinuation set up cosidering price closed above that PPZ you mentioned.


jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #96,173
  • Jun 8, 2011 5:29am Jun 8, 2011 5:29am
Hi all

I would have entered this long but with LTF PA about 80 pips ago

Now the range is up 100 pips and we are approaching the 1.3900 Major PPZ so I dont like trading into these zones

Good luck!

Anthony
  • #96,174
  • Jun 8, 2011 6:11am Jun 8, 2011 6:11am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Kalbar, i saw this too but i had an entry planned for the break of the TL (see chart) news caused price to brake that area and i missed my entry. For that reason i passed the trade, i was tempted to take the 1H BUOB but decided i was chasing price and already had euro trades running. For me not a bad contuinuation set up cosidering price closed above that PPZ you mentioned.


jon
Hey Hook

Thanks for that reply - I did not take the trade because I was looking for some more confluence but in hindsight with the strong close above PPz and RN it was as you say a fairly good continuation setup!

Kal
  • #96,175
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:37am Jun 8, 2011 7:37am
Quoting hotjoey
Mike,
thank you for your contribution to this thread and kind help when guys in need. could you please give me some URL I can learn how to draw PPZ?

best regards, Joey
Thanks TP

Also Joey here is a good starting point

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post2252116


Best
Mike
  • #96,176
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:43am Jun 8, 2011 7:43am
Quoting CavinK
Hi Masters,

I've been staying in this FF for quite a long time since last Oct and just keep studying silently with respect to all masters here. must say that it's really a treasure for all retail traders like me, thank you very much.

But in another point, studying silently may not a good method, hv been demoing for more than 7 months, now I just reached a stage---> continuously loosing...LOL, really frustrating sometimes, I just posted 2 my typical trade here, would you masters diagnoze it please?
Hey Calvin

Welcome , glad to see you come out from lurking

Here are some charts and posts for some of the posts you made

Here is one on the eur/cad

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post4670616

gbp/jpy see chart below you nailed this one. So I am not sure if you had a question or just posting it

gbp/chf- Very small buob coming off a HUGE strong down trend. What is the real support or confluence. Also It closed weak as well. Think back to eur/cad on this one.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  • #96,177
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:13am Jun 8, 2011 8:13am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Calvin

Welcome , glad to see you come out from lurking

Here are some charts and posts for some of the posts you made

Here is one on the eur/cad

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post4670616

gbp/jpy see chart below you nailed this one. So I am not sure if you had a question or just posting it

gbp/chf- Very small buob coming off a HUGE strong down trend. What is the real support or confluence. Also It closed weak as well. Think back to eur/cad on this one.

Hope this helps
Mike
Hi Mike,

Thanks for your hospitality.

The G/J chart I posted is just the one I feel really confused about, a big bearish bar followed by a bullish pinbar (or vice versa). it could be explained if the price start to take off as there's a pin bar, but it also can be explained if the price continue the down trend, as the big bearish bar provided the big bear force. what could be our pinbar justification under such situation? please kindly share your valuable input.
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----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #96,178
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:52am Jun 8, 2011 8:52am
Quoting CavinK
Hi Mike,

Thanks for your hospitality.

The G/J chart I posted is just the one I feel really confused about, a big bearish bar followed by a bullish pinbar (or vice versa). it could be explained if the price start to take off as there's a pin bar, but it also can be explained if the price continue the down trend, as the big bearish bar provided the big bear force. what could be our pinbar justification under such situation? please kindly share your valuable input.
Hey Calvin

I think this one can be justified since price entered a range on top of the round number. So you have pinbar + round number + support(at the bottom of the range) + space + clear target and/or FTA(this is the key).

So I think that's a pretty classic J16 trade there

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #96,179
  • Jun 8, 2011 9:11am Jun 8, 2011 9:11am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Calvin

I think this one can be justified since price entered a range on top of the round number. So you have pinbar + round number + support(at the bottom of the range) + space + clear target and/or FTA(this is the key).

So I think that's a pretty classic J16 trade there

Hope that helps
Mike
Thank you Mike for your nice analysis, I still need some deep dive study on the Pinbar definition.
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #96,180
  • Jun 8, 2011 11:37am Jun 8, 2011 11:37am
Hi All,

Is this first chart of any interest to anyone. Apologies of I missed this on any previous post. I'm thinking that if it breaks this PPZ, possibility of a trend change perhaps?

In the second chart, I entered with the close of the second eye (1 unit) of the swing high PB (not a protruding nose but I took it as indication of a failed buy attempt when the IB failed to form at that level). Then at the "double low, lower close", I entered Unit 2. I took profit on the first at 38.2 ret. and stop to BE. I closed the second just before the 50 ret level. Is this trade justifiable in such a way or was this a total fluke?

Thanks guys. Learning more about finance in this forum than I did in 4 years of uni.
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