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Ken's Continuing Successes with EO's system

  • #4,381
  • Jun 4, 2011 9:01am Jun 4, 2011 9:01am
Quoting lazyboy
Ken,

Correct me if I'm wrong but that was support was as much to do with the prior break out of that range and the rally base rally demand?

I think drop base rally shows stronger demand than rally base rally?

visa versa for supply, or do you consider them equal? or each on its own merits?

But what is the real level ? It can be argued till time ends. as all we have to do is move time on the charts to see what we want to see. The key is to find the one you like the most and see the clearest. I still like the 30 min chart. But the big trades will be coming off big charts.

To not look at both or all views is a mistake a lot of intraday traders make . Focusing to much on fast charts and missing the bigger moves or even the correct trend.

Plus Support is not what we are focusing on at the present time. This is a supply line that has now become a demand line. which is a swap of predominant orders waiting to be filled.

This is key to understand. The thinking is a bit different and isn't readily interchanged as so many do. Support doesn't equal demand . nor resistance supply. For ease they are swapped constantly but to view them as such we are missing the picture.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,382
  • Jun 4, 2011 9:16am Jun 4, 2011 9:16am
As far as which one I prefer , is more a function of all things considered, the first and foremost being the major trend. We have been in a uptrend since Dec. which looks to be stalling but long trends don't die easy.

The drop-base-rally or rally-base-drop. Is always at the extreme leaves ( tops or bottoms) which so many want to be the first traders in. Which is fine but how many times have we seen what looks to be a level for a reversal just break and keep on trucking.

Then when you look to see what happened we see we had hit this area many times. Or we are fighting the relevant trend.

I am not the best at picking the entries using the s/d but getting better. A= levels tend to not get actually touched and turn before the level looking like some are worried they will miss out so have orders placed before the level which makes it safer. Which is why the fresh levels are best.

Hope everyone is having a great weekend Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,383
  • Jun 4, 2011 9:25am Jun 4, 2011 9:25am
I recently attended a webinar by sam seiden and he mentioned that the levels with the strongest imbalance should interest us more and they have the least activity in terms of candlesticks ..... i think your 4 hr chart shows it so clearly.....

thanks again ken for explaining this stuff so well

nice weekend guys


Quoting Kenneth Lee
But what is the real level ? It can be argued till time ends. as all we have to do is move time on the charts to see what we want to see. The key is to find the one you like the most and see the clearest. I still like the 30 min chart. But the big trades will be coming off big charts.

To not look at both or all views is a mistake a lot of intraday traders make . Focusing to much on fast charts and missing the bigger moves or even the correct trend.

Plus Support is not what we are focusing on at the present time. This is a supply line that has...
  • #4,384
  • Jun 4, 2011 9:40am Jun 4, 2011 9:40am
hi Ken, hi everybody,
this is the best thread on FF!
It is since you Ken, posted this idea of 21 mechanical trades that I was inspired about...
My lack of discipline and patience is my first big matter in trading.
So I decided to make a trial, with a new ad hoc demo account where I want to take only at least 21 trade based ONLY on PA and basically on MTF analysis of S and D level.
The idea is to use ONLY P.O. and ONLY the 4 majors, picking the "best" trade on the first ret.

The main big matter is about where to put the PO because the best level tend to push away price BEFORE.... I'm thinking of splitting the position 1/2 adn 1/2 and try with a scaling-in tactics, but I'm a little confused about

I'm going to post here the trades, with graphs.

Good week end and cheers

Alessandro
  • #4,385
  • Jun 4, 2011 9:53am Jun 4, 2011 9:53am
Quoting msap
I recently attended a webinar by sam seiden and he mentioned that the levels with the strongest imbalance should interest us more and they have the least activity in terms of candlesticks ..... i think your 4 hr chart shows it so clearly.....

thanks again ken for explaining this stuff so well

nice weekend guys
Yes and that is the biggest error in swapping the terminology of support and resistance for supply and demand.

When we look for support and resistance we always look for the most activity which is actually showing a NEAR balance. Think of a see- saw with kids of equal weight it will just teeter up and down a little bit. But have a big kid jump on one end and BOOM! we have a great imbalance.

If we attached a pen to one end of our see saw we could see the exact same thing we would on our charts. Nice consolidation till that one side is overwhelmed by the fat cats. In almost all trading styles the fast exits are considered the best , Pins , DBHLC or DBLHC. Which makes us wonder why the difference even exist.

Cheers Ken
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,386
  • Edited Jun 5, 2011 7:08am Jun 4, 2011 10:02am | Edited Jun 5, 2011 7:08am
Entries. There are only 3 different entries which is true for most systems The touch the Confirmation and the retest. The retest can be consider a touch as well , The only difference is that price has just broken a area and this is the first test of that break.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,387
  • Jun 6, 2011 1:30pm Jun 6, 2011 1:30pm
anyone see the oz trades.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,388
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:20pm Jun 6, 2011 10:20pm
Then !!!
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,389
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:42am Jun 7, 2011 1:42am
couple of trades on Oz

I entered the short before the news came out but stop was in place so let it ride
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,390
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:54am Jun 7, 2011 1:54am
Can you see the clear entries on e/u - gbp/jpy and usd/cad all around 9 pm eastern time. will post charts later but see if you can see them . The key is to take the clear entries or set PO's it isn't terribly hard just take a bit to start spotting them .
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,391
  • Jun 7, 2011 6:06am Jun 7, 2011 6:06am
You talk about higher timeframes in the thread,can we use this system as set and forget also this doesnt seem to be time dependant so do you have to monitor the daily range?
Thanks
sean
  • #4,392
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:03am Jun 7, 2011 10:03am
Quoting seansheep
You talk about higher timeframes in the thread,can we use this system as set and forget also this doesnt seem to be time dependant so do you have to monitor the daily range?
Thanks
sean
With this new ideology I am not worrying about any thing else , Just looking to see how it works out just as supply and demand levels.

Was chatting with a friend this am and was talking about the gbp
and how the swap from a supply level to a demand level was tested as the best entry this morning. 1.6360 level.

and he said that it was the break and test of Asian. I hadn't even noticed.

Last week on my test accounts I set the trades on the 4hr charts on sunday and never made any changes. except I messed up and looked and closed some to soon that would have tp'd for over 200 pips .

But it shows that yes you can set po's and let them play out , I thin k if you look everyday at your charts and pick entries that or A+ with the trend you will do very well.

Plus what he was calling the asian high ws also the lower level from 11 that morning . so not so much asian only high.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,393
  • Jun 9, 2011 4:27am Jun 9, 2011 4:27am
Last pre-asian I set some pending orders based on supply and demand Levels..
when I woke up during london... had one loss of 20 pips.. and was up 80 in active trades. Some nice sleep pips!!!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #4,394
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:42am Jun 9, 2011 6:42am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Last pre-asian I set some pending orders based on supply and demand Levels..
when I woke up during london... had one loss of 20 pips.. and was up 80 in active trades. Some nice sleep pips!!!

Nice , yep just like all trading ideas the key is to take them all. you can see many times one level will get stopped then the next turns it back for a large gain . One reason to look for 3:1 trades 1 makes up for 3 bad.

On those test accounts I am running I had set about 8 trades on each pair 3 different time zones and on the yen pair it went through 3 but when it turned on the 4th it made up all 3 losses and then some. plus had soem that didn't lose at all.

So just keep looking and watching your PO's and it won't be long before you learn the ones your picking that have the greatest change of winning and your average should soar.

Great Going .. Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,395
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:44pm Jun 9, 2011 11:44pm
Another good supply demand trade... Also with 62sma confluence.
Choose TP area at resistance level.

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/5685/20110610-hyfs-54kb.jpg
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #4,396
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:59pm Jun 9, 2011 11:59pm
a/j trade
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,397
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:10am Jun 10, 2011 12:10am
another view of a/j
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,398
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:42am Jun 10, 2011 6:42am
Hi ken, hi all people here,
Ken your words are always inspiring for me...
well, the first thing I'd like to share is "less is better", may be less time to look at a chart.... more than 10 minutes on a chart means messing all up for me, the best trades are put in a matter of minutes and they went to profit when I sleep... when I cant mess the trades....

maybe I'm going to put an alarm clock to cut the time of my analysis at the minimum, like a time S/L.

how much time do you spend on a single pair in oder to spot S/D levels and to evaluate the trade? Maybe cutting this time we can trade better...

My trial,
only last night 2 pending orders with S/D methodology on Aussy on the nearest fresh D Level (not so much good not so much bad)

Buy 0593 S/L 0564 t/p 0625 (+32 already closed)
Buy 0593 S/L 0564 t/p 0649 (now at break even with some pips locked)

I decided to do so: half a position with the nearest target and half with the second target. When the first is at tp, the second one is put on BE. What do you think of this?

Other PO not triggered on USDCAD buy 9680 s/l 9663 t/p 9730

Do you think is better to cancel pending order before the end of friday sessions? Or may be the S/D level are there over the week-end?

The last thought / idea / questions: on a thread I read something like this:
"The first retracement is the best trade", what do you think about? Is our "fresh first touch" the first retracement?

I think so, maybe in a uptrend / downtrend (best view in a higher TF) we enter with the trend at the first touch of the recent S/D level, in a breackout the first touch of our just broken / swaped S/D Level is also the first retracement....
in a box range, it's not a matter of ret but of fading a failed breackout, also in this case we could think it is a ret?

Cheers and have good life and good trading insights to all


Alessandro
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  • #4,399
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:14am Jun 10, 2011 7:14am
Quoting fxtrader-ale
Hi ken, hi all people here,
Ken your words are always inspiring for me...
well, the first thing I'd like to share is "less is better", may be less time to look at a chart.... more than 10 minutes on a chart means messing all up for me, the best trades are put in a matter of minutes and they went to profit when I sleep... when I cant mess the trades....

maybe I'm going to put an alarm clock to cut the time of my analysis at the minimum, like a time S/L.

how much time do you spend on a single pair in oder to spot S/D levels and to evaluate...

how much time do you spend on a single pair in oder to spot S/D levels and to evaluate the trade? Maybe cutting this time we can trade better...

Time has nothing to do with it. It is SEEING the levels, that is key maybe to not try and over analysis your choices . Which if your trying to use the S/D trading ideology the rules are pretty straight forward and few. But you must pick the right areas. Some will get hit others won't. During times of little volume maybe the hardest is when they start to move again they can really move, why having more than one level picked can save you from just to tight losses. In other words if your placing say a short on that a/j chart you may place two one at 85.50 then one at 85.90 in case the first is blown thru,

I decided to do so: half a position with the nearest target and half with the second target. When the first is at tp, the second one is put on BE. What do you think of this?

How ever we decided to lock in some gains on possible trades that may travel for long distances is good. Most traders once they find themselves picking the right entries will just move to BE the whole trade and aim for targets off longer time frame charts, the ART of this is knowing when those longer TP's aren't going to be hit and taking the gains you have. Again with time just like picking FRESH entries it should become easier to see a fresh TP will be the end of your trade while a multiple hit level will signal to hold for a breakout and more gains.


how much time do you spend on a single pair in oder to spot S/D levels and to evaluate the trade?


AS long as it takes. LOL , But really it should only take a moment or two. Plus always flip your chart thru the different times . This way you don't miss the big picture and the big trade. especially when you can't seem to spot anything it sometimes becomes clear going up or even down in time frame on your charts.


Do you think is better to cancel pending order before the end of friday sessions? Or may be the S/D level are there over the week-end?

I am not sure cancelling PO's is so important but I don't like leaving open trades over the weekend unless your really up on a long term position trade maybe off a daily chart. The only issue is global events that can and do happen over the weekend can rock the markets and cause some really wild moves on Sunday open . If your broker honors stops in all conditions might be OK but it is a definite personal choice.


The last thought / idea / questions: on a thread I read something like this:
"The first retracement is the best trade", what do you think about? Is our "fresh first touch" the first retracement?

This probably very true. But the question to ask is what do you see as the first retracement. Is it the entry I took on a/j after the swap . or was it 5..5 hrs later to the same area? It is the strength of picking levels that is critical and if we are going to do some scalping knowing that we are scalping and trading that way. in and out quickly.


I think so, maybe in a uptrend / downtrend (best view in a higher TF) we enter with the trend at the first touch of the recent S/D level, in a breackout the first touch of our just broken / swaped S/D Level is also the first retracement....
in a box range, it's not a matter of ret but of fading a failed breackout, also in this case we could think it is a ret?


The hardest and riskiest entry is always that first little retest after a breakout. It can be a false breakout. But it also can be just a start to a very large move. Sometimes we don't even get a retest . Look at the gbp last night. Be really hard to see that breakout and get on board after the fact. The first retracement after a breakout which is normally where supply and demand have swapped places is normally a fresh entry . But as the rule state the best are when price moved away quickly and a decent amount then stayed away awhile. This doesn't happen alot because a breakout can be a rally-base-rally,or drop-base-drop. Meaning a good portion of a move has happened before they formed.

Again why the entry from the top on A/J was the best entry. One entry get twice the pips of the late entry. Maybe if you took the top entry and you SAW the swap you can add on at those areas with a stop move to protect from any losses. That can accelerate a account very quickly.

Hope everyone had a good week and has a even better weekend. Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,400
  • Jun 10, 2011 1:00pm Jun 10, 2011 1:00pm
What of this Kenn? Is this a good demand level to long?
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