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Following the big money

  • #121
  • Jun 6, 2011 1:34am Jun 6, 2011 1:34am
Quoting cash_machine
How much is "less risk"? For example, leverage 5:1 - is it a lot of risk or not?
Below 1% risk per trade. Usually 0.5%
  • #122
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:48am Jun 6, 2011 2:48am
Quoting srmfx
For long position I move the stop below swing lows at 1M charts when the swing high is broken. The opposite if true for shot positions.
Thanks srmfx, what a great piece of advice.
  • #123
  • Jun 6, 2011 4:44am Jun 6, 2011 4:44am
Lazy market today, no trades. The tricky part of trading is to learn when to stay on the sidelines.
  • #124
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:13am Jun 6, 2011 5:13am
Quoting srmfx
Lazy market today, no trades. The tricky part of trading is to learn when to stay on the sidelines.
Do you determine that market is "lazy" by monitoring quotes (numbers) or you just want substantial move in any direction (trend on the chart)?
  • #125
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:16am Jun 6, 2011 5:16am
Quoting cash_machine
Do you determine that market is "lazy" by monitoring quotes (numbers) or you just want substantial move in any direction (trend on the chart)?
It is 11:15 London time but EURUSD couldn't break decisively the Asian range.
  • #126
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:36am Jun 6, 2011 5:36am
Quoting srmfx
It is 11:15 London time but EURUSD couldn't break decisively the Asian range.
Is it important to wait until euro break asian range? What if it keep bouncing between channel boundaries, then we can say that it bouncing from support/resistance?
  • #127
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:40am Jun 6, 2011 5:40am
The London Open brought in a little activity.....sell confirmed by the cross of the 1m 20 ema and 5m 20 ema....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jne 6 eu 1m fo on.gif Size: 21 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #128
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:49am Jun 6, 2011 5:49am
Quoting cash_machine
Is it important to wait until euro break asian range? What if it keep bouncing between channel boundaries, then we can say that it bouncing from support/resistance?
If the Asian range is wide enough you can buy the support and sell the resistance. Usually it is not and I prefer at least small breakout just before or after the London open.
  • #129
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:57am Jun 6, 2011 5:57am
Quoting srmfx
If the Asian range is wide enough you can buy the support and sell the resistance.
Can you please give approximate magnitude of "wide enough"? Say, 50 pips is enough?
  • #130
  • Jun 6, 2011 6:00am Jun 6, 2011 6:00am
Quoting cash_machine
Can you please give approximate magnitude of "wide enough"? Say, 50 pips is enough?
40+ pips at least. I prefer to fade a small break of the support if the trend on daily chart is up. Sometimes I can buy the low of the day.
  • #131
  • Jun 6, 2011 6:11am Jun 6, 2011 6:11am
price has been hugging 16412 level,which was a gap in price a couple of hours after markets opened,i traded this from 47 level during Asian session.price keeps coming back to it,my reason for taking the trade apart from filling that price was the bias across my pairs
Attached Image
was negative
  • #132
  • Edited 6:47am Jun 6, 2011 6:35am | Edited 6:47am
A good example of following the money was last weeks eu trade that srmfx posted about .the strike price of the barrier option being 14450,for reasons stated by srmfx ,price hit 14443 and dropped 40 pips in a minute,price well protected,price started to test that touch level again and eventually hit it and stalled around 14460,my 14 pairs were telling me were the money flow was going,all apart from euro and usd/chf, usd/ were falling in to negative value,the other euro crosses were also falling off,cable was negative 60 % ,eu was + 40,you didnt require a chart to see this price imbalance euro was to far out of synce ,very clear short ,no chart required just bid ask price for price to stall,strike price hit,and displacement of eu,you dont get many trades from watching overall money flow,but on occasion there are some great free gifts,
hope sombody can make some sense from my ramblings
regareds
william

ps the drop was a 160 pips,which brought all the pairs back into harmony with one and other
  • #133
  • Jun 6, 2011 6:50am Jun 6, 2011 6:50am
Quoting diceman555
A good example of following the money was last weeks eu trade that srmfx posted about .the strike price of the barrier option being 14450,for reasons stated by srmfx ,price hit 14443 and dropped 40 pips in a minute,price well protected,price started to test that touch level again and eventually hit it and stalled around 14460,my 14 pairs were telling me were the money flow was going,all apart from euro and usd/chf, usd/ were falling in to negative value,the other euro crosses were also falling off,cable was negative 60 % ,eu was + 40,you didnt require...
I see what you mean William. Currency pairs correlation is a great tool. It is not like it used to be but it's still useful.
  • #134
  • Jun 6, 2011 7:12am Jun 6, 2011 7:12am
hi smrfx
i generally use it for bias ,but on occasion it shows a pair which is so far out of sync,or lags the the general flow,it helps if i am aware of the reason,news can stall a pairs natural flow or increase its value against the general flow .only for it to fall back into line.one needs to be aware also of the fact that it could be leading the pack and a trend change or retracment is starting.but as i have said the trades i make like this are extreme misplacement
regard
william

another example of this was the aud /usd when it was 110,i traded that back down it was so far out of tune
  • #135
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:44am Jun 7, 2011 12:44am
Quoting srmfx
The correlation is one of my best filters for entry. I trade mostly EUR/USD and watch GBP/USD and one stock index (FTSE).
AUD/USD is usually very tightly correlated with EUR/USD. Do you monitor AUD/USD?
  • #136
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:51am Jun 7, 2011 12:51am
Quoting cash_machine
AUD/USD is usually very tightly correlated with EUR/USD. Do you monitor AUD/USD?
I don't like aussie and kiwi. The liquidity is much lower than in EURUSD and the commodities currencies are one of the favorite for Asian sovereigns and other large funds. I don't like such "competition". They can add to long or short positions forever. Although, as William said, when a currency pair is at extreme levels I can consider a position.
  • #137
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:57am Jun 7, 2011 12:57am
Quoting srmfx
I don't like aussie and kiwi. The liquidity is much lower than in EURUSD and the commodities currencies are one of the favorite for Asian sovereigns and other large funds.
Asian sovereigns and large funds are just as plentiful on EUR/USD. Aussie is plenty liquid... It would make sense that there is more "competition" on a more liquid pair, eur/usd being def. more liquid.
  • #138
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:09am Jun 7, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Monroe
Asian sovereigns and large funds are just as plentiful on EUR/USD. Aussie is plenty liquid... It would make sense that there is more "competition" on a more liquid pair, eur/usd being def. more liquid.
You are right that they are active in almost every currency pair, but the liquidity in EURUSD is much larger. The forex market is different in the last few months.
  • #139
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:22am Jun 7, 2011 1:22am
srmfx, I was thinking about monitoring AUD/USD with purpose to filter out trades on EUR/USD since these two pairs are very correlated. What do you think about this attempt?
  • #140
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:29am Jun 7, 2011 1:29am
Quoting srmfx
You are right that they are active in almost every currency pair, but the liquidity in EURUSD is much larger. The forex market is different in the last few months.
No they are very active in aud/usd and eur/usd as they diversify the dollars they buy from intervening in there currencies against the dollar.

I am not sure what you mean by the market changed, what have I missed?
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