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AUD/USD

  • #29,761
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:02am Jun 7, 2011 12:02am
Quoting lasty
Aussie getting smacked after the no rate changed.
Losing against Eur GBP and our country cousins NZD.
Infact AUD/NZD dropped by 100pips..
As many are looking to buy AUD for the yield,the economy locally seems jaded despite what many economists spruike.
I am looking for this down move to reverse. Closed short @ 0700. Flipped long @ 0690. AU spread is still the best carry going.

Regards,
  • #29,762
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:03am Jun 7, 2011 12:03am
So this is what the big drop is? Cuz they were expecting the RBA to raise the interest rate and instead they kept it the same?? Otherwise I thought the statement by the Governor was not that bad.

Gosh! Good thing I got out of EUR/AUD earlier otherwise I would've been out 80 pips. Yeesh!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #29,763
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:05am Jun 7, 2011 12:05am
this is pretty standard play for the aud/usd on rate day.

usually the dump is short lived, and a good buying opportunity.

Mitch
  • #29,764
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:08am Jun 7, 2011 12:08am
Quoting Mitchoss
this is pretty standard play for the aud/usd on rate day.

usually the dump is short lived, and a good buying opportunity.

Mitch
i have no idea why it drop so sharp
  • #29,765
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:12am Jun 7, 2011 12:12am
I would really not be long on this pair.

I am short from 1.07323 with a tp around 1.0650

RBA decision not only did not hike it also pushed back expectations of future hike like the market expected.

Not good news for the bulls.
  • #29,766
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:15am Jun 7, 2011 12:15am
Quoting Mitchoss
this is pretty standard play for the aud/usd on rate day.

usually the dump is short lived, and a good buying opportunity.

Mitch
Not so sure if the dip will be short-lived for this one. Depends on what those traders read in in the statement. In the statement, he did say:

"The exchange rate remains, in real effective terms, close to its highest level in several decades. If sustained, this could be expected to exert continued restraint on the traded sector."

So if those traders read this statement and interpret it to mean that the RBA is concerned about the high AUD/USD exchange rate and would potentially intervene then they might dump it further. But then again not sure if RBA intervene as much as the BoJ does.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #29,767
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:22am Jun 7, 2011 12:22am
Quoting Bigvick991
I would really not be long on this pair.

I am short from 1.07323 with a tp around 1.0650

RBA decision not only did not hike it also pushed back expectations of future hike like the market expected.

Not good news for the bulls.
Agree

besides, a/u could not break 1.0773 for several times
I think it will go down as low as 1.0590
  • #29,768
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:30am Jun 7, 2011 12:30am
Quoting FX-Petra
I am looking for this down move to reverse. Closed short @ 0700. Flipped long @ 0690. AU spread is still the best carry going.

Regards,
We are still stuck in a broad range 1.0500 1.0775. so perhaps your strategy of playing the range is right for the moment.
Im looking at the crosses as im bearish USD so running naked AUD is not the good option. Prefer selling AUD/NZD on the short.
  • #29,769
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:34am Jun 7, 2011 12:34am
Looking for long at 1.06xx... for a good week.
  • #29,770
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:39am Jun 7, 2011 12:39am
totally agree!! its a good chance to long aud. targeting 1.077-1.08
  • #29,771
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:42am Jun 7, 2011 12:42am
agreed. the fundamentals that drive aud/usd have not changed at all. Heck we even made gains in the short term and during what was meant to be 'the slow quarter' after the natural disasters.

Mitch

Quoting evelee8
Looking for long at 1.06xx... for a good week.
  • #29,772
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:47am Jun 7, 2011 12:47am
remember, RBNZ is making statement tomorrow. by looking at AUD/NZD, it is holding at 50 fibo since the long run from the bottom. AUD/NZD would be a good buying opportunity. considering NZD is extremely overbought
Lets Soar The Sky
  • #29,773
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:51am Jun 7, 2011 12:51am
Aud/Usd This pair is still on daily uptrend, high is at 1.0770, retracement is at 1.0700, break is to 1.0660 then 1.0630/40
  • #29,774
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:02am Jun 7, 2011 1:02am
added long. 1lot.

SL 1.065
TP 1.08
  • #29,775
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:16am Jun 7, 2011 1:16am
Hi All,
Here is my take on AUD. RBA decided to leave the cash rate at 4.75, it was expecetd anyway, but the tone in the statement wasnt as hawkish as I expected it to be. Europe market hasn't had the chance to react to the statement, so I think a downturn will be quite possible.

On technical level, we have weekly and monthly pivots on 1.0705 and 1.0719 respectively, so any upward movement should be capped there. On the downside we have a support at 1.0670, which should not be that difficult to break once EU opens, next level is 1.0635.

I would be looking at shorting on rise for about 40 pips or so, but not overly excited about this pair at the moment.

Good Luck all
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  • #29,776
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:34am Jun 7, 2011 1:34am
Quoting audangel
totally agree!! its a good chance to long aud. targeting 1.077-1.08
if it breaks 1.5577
  • #29,777
  • Jun 7, 2011 2:20am Jun 7, 2011 2:20am
Quoting soartosky
remember, RBNZ is making statement tomorrow. by looking at AUD/NZD, it is holding at 50 fibo since the long run from the bottom. AUD/NZD would be a good buying opportunity. considering NZD is extremely overbought
Well I beg to differ..
AUD/NZD has been up to mid 1.37's dow to 1.3200 up to 1.3700 down to 1.2900 up to 1.3180 and now extending lower.
NZ economy is on the rise, Aussie on the slide..
Could possibly see this cross back to 1.2770 or 1.2600
But thats what makes a market two differtent opinions .. so good luck
  • #29,778
  • Jun 7, 2011 2:53am Jun 7, 2011 2:53am
longs on track, back to 1.07

moved to BE + 1. not adding anymore longs until we break 1.077 and hold
  • #29,779
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:45am Jun 7, 2011 4:45am
Quoting dxchen
i have no idea why it drop so sharp
because tomorrow RBA will announce its decision on interest rate. So, traders partially close their long positions.
  • #29,780
  • Jun 7, 2011 4:57am Jun 7, 2011 4:57am
Quoting slovforex
because tomorrow RBA will announce its decision on interest rate. So, traders partially close their long positions.
RBA announced its decision today, they held interest rates at 4.75%. Thats the reason for the sharp drop. Further more, the statement accompanying the rate decision did not sound as hawkish as the bulls would have liked it and hence no further gains thusfar.
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