Precision Trading

Sorry, my bad. Video Link has been corrected.

Excellent job Howie! I found this video extremely helpful not only with my understanding of the different functions and how they work/what they do, but this also seems like an effective trading method that makes a lot of sense to me. I can definitely see myself using this as a basis for perfecting my own method of trading.

Also, I love the template, thats a great idea and it's very helpful because its taking me a long time to get the charts the way I like them, and since I'm learning from you the way you do them, it helps stick in my head if I'm looking at the same thing.

As a side note, I was thinking that if you needed more ideas for videos you could maybe do a video log of some trades. Possibly start off with what tipped you off on your charts, how you decided your stop/take, and maybe what you'll be looking for as a sign to get out. I thought this would be a cool thing to do that shouldn't take too long and, for me at least, I think it would be quite helpful to see into the mind of a more experienced trader.

Just an idea though, so don't feel obliged.

Thanks a lot for the video, I look forward to more.

Griff~

No problem Griff. This is the start of several videos I will be posting. These were just basic videos and I was a bit tired. I will be recording videos based on following price action along, using Pivot Points and Fibs and how to use them not just to get into trades but to get out. Some Pivot Points are reversal PVP's and we use them to establish Take Profit Zones. With Fibs we use Fib Extensions to determine Take Profit Zones as well.

As a Fib Trader I use the following Fib Retracements and Extensions:

Fib Retracements:
38.2
50.0
61.8
78.6

Fib Extensions:
121.4
138.2
161.8
200.0
261.8

In Fib Theory specific Fib Retracements predict specific Fib Extensions:

38.2 - 161.8 to 200.0 or higher
50.0 - 138.2 to 161.8
61.8 - 121.4 to 138.2
78.6 - 100.0 to 121.4

so, using these guidelines gives you an obvious profit target. Overlap these Fibs Extensions with Reversal Pivots such as M4/R2 or M1/S2

For example:

Price is in an uptrend and you enter the trade on a 50.0 % Fib Retracement if the 138.2/161.8 Fib Extensions exists close to the M4/R2 Reversal Pivot Point you best Take Profit in that zone or move your Stop Loss to within 10 Pips of that area if you are afraid to miss any possible (but doubtful) continuation.

I will focus more on this in upcoming videos and discussions in this thread. I may even put out another video or two as early as tonight. Just remember Confluence and overlap of S/R. Dont enter the trade over 1 signal, use 3 to 4 and that can include multiple Timeframes.

There may be a 50.0 Fib Retracement that overlaps with the Central Pvoit Point or previous days high or low and touches a 21 or 55 ema on a 15 minute chart. Take a look at the 1 Hour which may be sitting on the 5 or 13 ema and there may be a trend line or two in the mix. This would be an excellent buy opportunity. But I still need to show you all how to pull the trigger not on the 15 Minute but on the 5 or 1 Minute. You dont have to be the first one in the trade. When price hits a reactionary zone on a 15 don't just jump into the trade, switch to the 5 or 1 minute. Watch for a couple higher highs and higher lows, then on the next Fib/Dip on the 5 or 1 minute take the trade. Set your stop loss just below the previous low. On a 1 minute chart that may only be 8 - 12 pips of risk for a trade that may very well yield 40 - 80 Pips.

I will soon cover currency correlation. As I said before, you cannot effectively trade the eurusd without monitoring the eurgbp and the usdchf and even the eurchf. Successful trading is all about relative strenght (not rsi). Its all about pairing the weak currency with a strong currency. A eurusd long will not work out if the eurgbp and eurchf is at resistance and the usdchf is on support most of the time. You also want to keep an eye on the indices such as the dow and s&p.

Understand the flow of money, Supply and Demand. The Forex Market is like a clock with gears. When one gear turns one way it causes another gear to turn the other way and that gear causes another gear to turn in yet another direction. The currency market reacts exactly like that.

It will all fall into place as this thread evolves and Ipost further videos. If necessary I will open up a live trading room for you all to observe me in action and of course at no cost to any of you. I hate hindsight explanations but we have to make due with what we have.

Meanwhile check out some of my other youtube videos on my channel. There are a few videos that I walk you through a successful profitable trade in real time and not in theory step by step. For get about Trading Systems and Strategies for now. It is all about a sound methodology.

Good work here!
Useful videos.

Thanks for the compliment, however, it appears this thread is beginning to die out before it takes off. In any case, if anything at all check out Part 4 of the most recent video I posted. This reinforces the accuracy of my methodology. Half way through that video I point out a Scalp short counter trend trade on eurusd with an accuracy within 10 Pips to the target area then of course the long I predicted came through shortly after. Check out the attached screen shots and compare them to the video and you will see what I mean. This is why I refer to my methodology as Precision Trading.

Take note of the Red Arrows. They mark the exact buy area I pointed out in the video halfway through Part 4.

why do you think so?
personaly i would like to see more.
i may not agree 100% to all that you show, but i like to watch how other people (that have good results) trade.
i follow another system that use EMAs and lately i try to add SR to it so what you say here is of interest to me and i bet also to a many more even if ppl wont follow it religiously.

hey stranger

Why do you say that? The thread is actually just fine. In fact, I would suggest to request from the administrator to move your thread to the "Trading Systems" section since it is not a journal and it will get more attention there.

I will also send an email to the admin.

I was still going through the videos which were sent directly via e-mails without the need to go back to the thread. I was even setting up my charts on the eur/usd and taking trades on my demo. Long story short, I'm still here and just as interested. You seem extremely confident in your methodology and I would like to achieve this same level of comfort. If you don't mind my prying a little are you making a decent income from your trading. It sure seems like your probably doing very well with this method. I'll bet you hardly ever have a losing week. The method sure feels right to me and I was looking for encouragement to pursue this whole heartadly. Thanks for everything.
Ryan

OK, well with that being said I will keep at it for you. I will next record a live trade as it develops and enter it based on my methodology. If you all want I will keep recording some lessons. I think my next video will be based on Currency Correlation. I may even record and post it tonight.

For sure if they move this thread to the Trading Systems it will in fact get a lot of attention. That is where I put it originally but admin moved it to trade journals.

Somebody recently sent me a private message asking me why I am sharing my methodology and I would like to answer and explain in public.

Why they ask? Why not I am asking. It is not like it is a top secret recipe or formula. It is not as though if I share it with you all I will decrease my chances of success or my profits. On the contrary, it is to my best interest and all retail traders best interests to see the same reactionary areas. After all, if I enter a long at support and the majority of other traders see what I see and enter the same type of long demand will overcome supply and price will rise and it will surely increase my chances of success. I believe they call this a self fulfilling prophecy.

I have always been a giver, not a taker. I not one of those over serious stiff squarish types without a sense of humor, I am a real down to earth dude, hungry & humble and love to help others. I don't have a big head or ego and never brag about my success. I been at retail trading for the better part of five years and I was not smart enough to teach myself. I took several courses, read a lot of books and spent a lot of money joining live trading rooms. I was a member of FX Bootcamp for just over a year. I watched every Forex video on youtube at least 4 times over a period of three years. Since I have always been self employed with a home based business I had the luxury of being able to study all day and practice trade all night for years. It was approximately two years ago when I finally reached the point of unconscious competence. As of today I have five years of charting experience and can honestly say I get myself in and out of profitable trades daily. I still lose at times, you cannot always be right and the market does what it wants to do.

I joined FF nearly four years ago and all this time only used it to view the News Calender. I never really read or spent much time in the forums. Just out of curiosity I started to browse the forums and suddenly felt I had a moral obligation to start my own thread because I don't want to see others make the same mistakes I made and lose the kinda money I lost starting out.

Check it out, it is not for me to knock other peoples systems and I won't do it. All I am going to say is that you will not survive at this game just trying to score on the 5 - 10 Pip scalp trades. After all, when most traders lose it is a lot more than 10 Pips. So how can you survive if your target is just a 10 pip scalp? I have also seen these 5 Pip scalping systems and once again, in the end the losses will overcome the wins. Winning 5 Pips here and there is not skill, it is just plain luck.

Your daily pip goal should really be 60 - 80 Pips a day. Try to get 80 - 120 a day if you can but if you only get 40 Pips in a day that is also awesome. Get into a consistent, repeatable methodology that you can use daily that will yield you daily bread. The eurusd average range is around 120 Pips a day. There is no reason why you cannot get yourself into an 80 pip or better swing or a couple spot trades that can yield 40+ Pips at a time. If you focus on the small Pips you will have to over trade to reach your daily goal and Forex is a numbers game and the more you trade the higher your chances are to loose. So try to trade as little as possible but win as much as possible and specialize in just eurusd, gbpusd and audusd. If you can't master those pairs you definitely not gonna master the others and those pairs are all you need. If you can't yield at least 40 Pips a day on the low side with just eurusd then you shouldn't even consider trading other pairs.

I noticed in other threads traders boasting about being in like six different trades and in profit in all of them or four out of six or whatever. They couldn't be trading real money because if they were on a US Account how could they do that at 50:1 Leverage and if it was even a UK Account or what not they are dangerously over leveraging themselves. You will not trade the same on a live account as you would on a demo. So many people on a Demo in a negative 50 -100 Pips. I can assure you that you would not survive that with real money.

When I am negative 10 - 12 Pips I already know I screwed the pooch and should probably exit out with a modest loss then move on to the next setup. I am attaching a few screenshots of the kinds of trades I go after that you should be going after to. They are spot and swing trades and were executed on a 1 Minute but were planned out on the higher time frames. Remember, I am not trading the 1 Minute, I am mostly trading the hourly and 15 Minute but I am simply pulling my trigger on the 1 Minute.

Ryan,

I do OK for myself. I make my living trading OPM (Other Peoples Money) and work as a free lance consultant for small trading groups as well as other retail traders. I travel and put on small private work shops and use to host a Live Local Trading Room. The rent was high and the participation was low and I couldn't afford the high operating cost. Was an 8,000 Square foot office and when I decided to shut it down I had only 3 traders that were actively participating. None of these individuals were my students or protege's, just some newbie traders that wanted to utilize my multi-monitor arrays, super computers and super fast internet connection, comfortable furniture and drink my free gourmet coffee. They did not want advise, only to give it and they could not get themselves into a profitable trade if there lives depended on it so finally they bailed out.

I'm still here, I've watched all your videos and read all your posts, and they were extremely helpful, thank you so much for your efforts. I created a similar template with all the EMAs, Pivots etc. and already started to trade on demo using your method. I find it very effective, and I feel very confident using it because it's based on Price Action and actual psychological levels. I'm sure a lot of people feel the same way, we just need time to fully comprehend all the new information. So I'm definitely looking forward to everything you're posting on here and on your youtube channel as well.

Well, when I hear things like that it makes it all very worthwhile. I am happy you are benefitting from this thread and if it helps even one person to get into profitable trades and stay out of losing trades it is no doubt fulfilling to me as well as worth my efforts.

I am still here too and have watched all your videos. I am in the process of setting up the charts as per your methodology and plan to demo trade. I am looking forward to your posts

Great work Howie! Thanks for posting, and explaining everything so thoroughly.

Man, this is some interesting information you're sharing here, as my man Fitness, who I know from another forum I'm in says... it's a great work...

I've been reading and re-reading and watching your videos over and over, and in between some more activities I've been almost inactive in my favourite forums, but this you're sharing here is excellent man, if you're willing to post more I'm sure there'll be lots of us interested...

I just posted multiple time frames for eurusd. Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M, 5M

I have already done my analysis and the Trendlines and Fibs on each of the time frames has been updated by me and on the 15 Minute and 5 Minute chart the Monthly, Weekly and Daily Pivot Point areas have been set. The Monthly Pivot Points are in Purple, the weekly in yellow and the daily in white.

On the daily we are riding the 5 ema but have a bit of seperation from the 5. We are slightly above it. Price and the 5 ema on the daily need to touch.

Looking at the 4 hour we have already fibbed at the 38.2 level, however we are below the 5 ema and the 13 ema exists between the 38.2 and 50.0 Fib.

On the 1 Hour price has broken out of a channel and the 5 ema has crossed below the 21 and it appears that the 5 ema is attempting to take control of price. The 55 ema also seems to be overlapping with the 50.0 Fib of the most recent swing high however, we are also between a 61.8 and a 78.6 Fib from the recent swing low. Remember, Green fib levels stand for support and the red levels mean resistance.

Checking out the 15 Minute we see the 13 ema is in control and wants to pass the torch over to the 5 ema. You will also notice that there is a trend line in between the 38.2 and 50.0 Fib and the 144 ema overlaps with the 38.2 Fib.

Finally on the 5 Minute price is below the 233 ema and the 55 ema is crossing the 233 downward.

Putting it all together now: So I am still very bullish on this pair (how can I not be) but I see that price will most likely continue to fall to around the .4630 - .4640 price level before continuation to the upside will be possible. So when price reaches that zone I will be carefully watching the 5 and/or 1 minute chart to watch for some hesitation, a little green then a couple higher highs and higher lows. If it all transpires as I am forecasting it I will wait for a fib to the second or third higher low on the 1 Minute and enter a Buy Order. A recommended area for a Stop Loss would be just below the 233 ema or the 61.8 Fib so this will be a very low risk long.

An optimum Profit Target for this long if it transpires would be somewhere between .4690 - .4700 since that area is an overlap of previous day high, pivot point and .4700 is a psychological level. FYI: Price levels that end in 00 is regarded as a psychological level for those of you that did not know that.

OK, lets see what happens. I may even turn my desk cam on when price finally reaches the expected reactionary zone. Happy Trading everybody.

on the 15M chart above, why do you draw support BELOW the candles on a down move?
i dont think i have seen this again. everyone says draw support BELOW price for an UP move, draw resistance ABOVE price for a DOWN move.

Looks like at this point price may not fall to the levels I previously expected. This could be due to recent jpy and chf news. eurusd is gonna do one of two things. It is either retesting the channel breakout on the hourly which is also a 78.6 Fib of the drop but is also overlapped with a monthly pivot point or it will work its way back into the hourly channel and continue upward. If in fact price continues upward, I would expect to see a struggle around the .4694 - .4700 Level. At that point I will then be watching for price to take a dive or to break that level to the upside. If it was to fall, I would wait for a Fib retracement then scalp short this pair down to the level I mentioned during my earlier analysis or if price is to break I would then let it break then retrace back to the scene of the crime and look for a long opportunity.

I will be watching this pair very carefully. In any case, we are in an area of contention. I guess we will just have to see what happens.

If you are referring to the White and Yellow Horizontal lines, remember, they are just Daily and Weekly Pivots, not actual Trend Lines.

If you are referring to something else please let me know.