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Flag trading the trend

  • #4,581
  • Jun 2, 2011 7:45am Jun 2, 2011 7:45am
eu had been on a strong upmove, over 160 pips on the day, i wouldnt be taking a long
  • #4,582
  • Jun 2, 2011 8:03am Jun 2, 2011 8:03am
HI CableGuy,
I'd recommend not trading from 10am- noon GMT (1pm in England) as traders start drifting away from their desks after the European session (they have to eat and go to the loo as well!), and the US traders will start coming online about noonish GMT.
Of course, sometimes signals do occur, and prices do move in this 10-12 period, but I reckon if you just go back through your charts, you'll see a lot less direction in this timeframe. We want a market that is trending, and that needs volume behind it, and as a general rule, there is less volume to drive prices during this period so you'll be more likely to be whipsawed and have your gains whittled away.

As for today's trades-always check your news diary. There was big US news at 12.30GMT-combine those trading session times with the fact that there was big news coming out, and the players in the market were never going to trade in the necessary volume to drive prices until these figures came out.

That's my opinion, don't know if others agree, hope that helps a bit.
  • #4,583
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:55pm Jun 2, 2011 5:55pm
hi all
i have q for mr DIVERGENCE
with all my respect i would like to ask you, do you keep track of the movement of other markets like s&p 500 and oil and gold for example, and do u pay attention to websites like dailyfx and their gossips for the future price movement
and their big headlines about eur is loosing ground and in the same time eur is beating the crap out of the usd and is making 30 pips green candles one after another........is it possible to be so simple...you really make it look like it is and i believe it....as long i started messing with too much fundamentals i drained my account and i was doing 25% a month in a row for a full year trading gartley and butterfly patterns before that....just don't want to be a statistic because i love trading and i do it for a living, but my business is going down
need you advice....thank you in advance
  • #4,584
  • Jun 2, 2011 6:40pm Jun 2, 2011 6:40pm
hey spec trading is not easy as we have seen over the last 3-4 weeks. Either setups happen when i am not if front of screen or we get these spike candles. I have now started to trade audusd which is trending and will give more setups also i am doing this on a 3 minute chart to cut those long candles down a tad. In my experience these things happen from time to time then things settle down and return to normal so when in doubt stay out and wait for the good setups. Murphys law is in effect right now my daughter now must go into hospitol to test for an ulser, i am running out of sick kids
  • #4,585
  • Jun 2, 2011 10:07pm Jun 2, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting Divergence
hey spec trading is not easy as we have seen over the last 3-4 weeks. Either setups happen when i am not if front of screen or we get these spike candles. I have now started to trade audusd which is trending and will give more setups also i am doing this on a 3 minute chart to cut those long candles down a tad. In my experience these things happen from time to time then things settle down and return to normal so when in doubt stay out and wait for the good setups. Murphys law is in effect right now my daughter now must go into hospitol to test for...
Hey Div,

Good to see you back posting. Man you’ve had a tough go at things lately, wish you and your family all the best.
Postings have been pretty quite lately, I would hate to see this amazing thread die out.
I was on the brink of believing that being consistently profitable was a myth in forex and I was ready to give up altogether, until I stumbled on your thread in its infancy. Thankfully I did because I have learned more in the past few months from you then I had in the past two years. I was hoping you could post some of your trades so that we can discuses them continue to absorb some knowledge. If you cant it’s completely understandable especially considering your circumstances lately. Either way I just wanted to thank you for reigniting my belief in my ultimate goal of becoming profitable trader (real trader) may one day be attainable. I am planning to open my first live account soon and I am hoping I can continue the successes I have recently been experiencing. In any case I am sure I am not the only person you have helped and I just wanted to thank you for “paying if forward”, I hope I can do the same for people one day.

God bless you and your family.
  • #4,586
  • Jun 2, 2011 10:21pm Jun 2, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting Divergence
hey spec trading is not easy as we have seen over the last 3-4 weeks. Either setups happen when i am not if front of screen or we get these spike candles. I have now started to trade audusd which is trending and will give more setups also i am doing this on a 3 minute chart to cut those long candles down a tad. In my experience these things happen from time to time then things settle down and return to normal so when in doubt stay out and wait for the good setups. Murphys law is in effect right now my daughter now must go into hospitol to test for...
Big D, when it rains, it pours. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. Hang in there big guy.
  • #4,587
  • Jun 4, 2011 2:45am Jun 4, 2011 2:45am
Quoting thefallguy
I’m not sure what is going on with the market direction lately. I took this trade today thinking it was a down trend but obviously it wasn’t.
Maybe somebody seen the market differently today?
Cant win them all my good friend. From what I have seen, this system wins more than it loses.
  • #4,588
  • Edited 12:22pm Jun 4, 2011 11:12am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting BigRatt
Cant win them all my good friend. From what I have seen, this system wins more than it loses.
no doubt, I have been testing this system for a few months now and I have been averaging about 70 to 80 percent wins lately.

Although I take very few trades, about three a week
  • #4,589
  • Jun 4, 2011 11:16am Jun 4, 2011 11:16am
Quoting thefallguy
no doubt, I have been testing this system for a few months now and I have been averaging about 70 to 80 percent wins.
Have you also noticed fallow periods as in the past two weeks? If so, can you attribute such stretches to any particular variables?
  • #4,590
  • Jun 4, 2011 1:25pm Jun 4, 2011 1:25pm
Its definitely not trending as much. But the set ups are there just few and far between and thin. If I look at Friday's A/U then:
We start in an uptrend - it then turns to a downtrend. About this time using the divergence finder indicator it showed divergence.

The first SUB i can see to go short is around 2.10am (meta is USD time) - good for a few pips. It then does nothing but still in a downtrend as per my peak and trough analysis. The previous high is not taken out at 3.15am. ADX shows there is no trend well its 4am.

Another sub down comes along at 5.50am depending where you put your s/l you might get taken out but if you put it at the previous swing high then your good until the end of that retracement where you go back into profit. maybe you could have moved the S/l to breakeven when it started retracing.

Another SUB at 7am - However once again it might be a loss or breakeven. If you stuck around from the 5.50am sub you would be looking good.

After this it is not trending. At 12.30 the market wakes up with an invalid sub bar as over 20 pips. It starts an uptrend at 13.40 when PA moves above the previous higher peak. We can go long on the retracement at 14.00 after the blue SUB.

15.45 another blue SUB after a retracement. The market is so thin that only a brave soul would take a trade but the trend is still up.
Another SUB at 16.15

PA goes into a downtrend at 18.00 when Price action takes out the last higher low.
At 18.55 you could take another red sub short.
  • #4,591
  • Jun 6, 2011 4:24am Jun 6, 2011 4:24am
EUR/USD long after 123, had some slippage so exited for +10 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,592
  • Edited 5:05am Jun 6, 2011 4:33am | Edited 5:05am
I saw a 123 for short at 07.15 gmt (1 at 06.55, 2 at 07.05, 3 at 07.10, sub at 07.15, win at 07.40), but the bar at 08.20 had its low at 1.46163 and point 1 was 1.46165 on my chart, so in this case no 123 in my perception
---
and i see a big 123, point 1 round 06.55 gmt, point 2 at 08.25 gmt, point 3 at 09.05 gmt, sub at 09.25 for short, would be a winner, but i think according to the rules we first have to find the trend and actually there is sideways action on eur/usd
  • #4,593
  • Jun 6, 2011 7:45am Jun 6, 2011 7:45am
Divergence + 1 2 3 on EUR/USD and sentiment is still up, hmm?
Attached Image
  • #4,594
  • Jun 6, 2011 7:58am Jun 6, 2011 7:58am
Hi Doman

could you mark your 123, I cant see one in the period you have shown after the divergence

regards
John

Quoting doman
Divergence + 1 2 3 on EUR/USD and sentiment is still up, hmm?
  • #4,595
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:42am Jun 6, 2011 8:42am
EUR/USD long after 123

closed it, didn't like the doji +2pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fx02 Jun. 06 21.33.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #4,596
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:55am Jun 6, 2011 8:55am
Quoting batata
EUR/USD long after 123
i didn't enter because the high of the set-up bar wasn't within 2.4 pips of point 2 on my chart
  • #4,597
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:26am Jun 6, 2011 10:26am
Hey Tritom,

any news about that EA ?

PS. i cant PM, that is why i ask here
  • #4,598
  • Jun 7, 2011 5:55am Jun 7, 2011 5:55am
Hello,

I have seen now the webinar showed in this thread by Divergence

I did one screen where I think we would not be WIN in fact, becouse there is a false flag before the correct flag forms

Am I right? Any comments on this? Look at the picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot - 7.6.2011 , 12_47_43.png Size: 124 KB
  • #4,599
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:14am Jun 8, 2011 1:14am
Quoting doman
Hello,

I have seen now the webinar showed in this thread by Divergence

I did one screen where I think we would not be WIN in fact, becouse there is a false flag before the correct flag forms

Am I right? Any comments on this? Look at the picture
Real resistance with potential sell-off is from the previous swing low is (and it happend to be like that couple of bars later)
  • #4,600
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:41am Jun 8, 2011 4:41am
Quoting doman
Hello,

I have seen now the webinar showed in this thread by Divergence

I did one screen where I think we would not be WIN in fact, becouse there is a false flag before the correct flag forms

Am I right? Any comments on this? Look at the picture
I was always taught to take the trade off the lowest low of the flag (or whatever consolidation) and using the high as SL. That would then be a winning trade by my strategy. I'm sorry to say I have not read this thread so I don't know what I'm talking about.
Gone to a better place
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