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Flag trading the trend

  • #4,561
  • Edited 2:34pm May 29, 2011 2:19am | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting thefallguy
I was checking out the screen shots you post earlier, wow it looks cool, can’t wait to see it...
ok ok, i'm doing my best to get it done asap ;-)

i'm in the middle of the pdf right now, have to check few things as markets open.. i have added a feature of taking screenshots anytime with a hotkey.. another definite feature is: it works in strategy tester (visual mode) as a trading simulator without any restriction.. there's also a way to replay the past on tick data with real spread so it can be useful as a training tool; everything moves in the tester just like in live market, even the range / bid-ask price / spread / bar clock indies. the code has bloated over 100kB and i want it to be as water-tight as possible and that's not easy as this is the only thing i ever coded so please be patient, i only hope the waiting is worth it.
:-anything
  • #4,562
  • May 30, 2011 12:18pm May 30, 2011 12:18pm
wow...no one posts here...i guess all are waiting for tritom`s robot
  • #4,563
  • May 30, 2011 12:28pm May 30, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting bradu
wow...no one posts here...i guess all are waiting for tritom`s robot
Bank holiday USA and England today, staying out of the markets.

(And, yes, we are all waiting for Tritom's EA. )
  • #4,564
  • Edited 6:05pm May 30, 2011 1:25pm | Edited 6:05pm
Quoting bradu
wow...no one posts here...i guess all are waiting for tritom`s robot
hey guys I really do apologize it's not out yet as promised but pls be patient, I still have some unresolved issues with it and I'm working on it. Testing some things (slippage control, RR re-adjustment etc) require the market to be moving so I'm waiting as well. If you want to speed up my progress, call the Tokyo boys to play some pretty vortex moves; that's all you can do ;-). I'll not post here until it's out and appeal to anyone interested to do the same regarding the ea. I will also PM all those who PM'd me or shown interest with a link to the ea thread as soon as I open it. Thanks.

Edit: Thx guys for calling Tokyo, well done
:-anything
  • #4,565
  • May 30, 2011 7:49pm May 30, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting tritom
hey guys I really do apologize it's not out yet as promised but pls be patient, I still have some unresolved issues with it and I'm working on it. Testing some things (slippage control, RR re-adjustment etc) require the market to be moving so I'm waiting as well. If you want to speed up my progress, call the Tokyo boys to play some pretty vortex moves; that's all you can do ;-). I'll not post here until it's out and appeal to anyone interested to do the same regarding the ea. I will also PM all those who PM'd me or shown interest with a link...
You're welcome!
  • #4,566
  • May 31, 2011 10:46am May 31, 2011 10:46am
I’m not sure what is going on with the market direction lately. I took this trade today thinking it was a down trend but obviously it wasn’t.
Maybe somebody seen the market differently today?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: may 31 8 45am.png Size: 133 KB
  • #4,567
  • May 31, 2011 12:07pm May 31, 2011 12:07pm
Although I've only been flag trading for a few weeks I have my own working theory as to why a momentum-based strat like flag trading has been mostly a bust for about a week now. (And you can call it a bust if you have taken signals that failed or have been very strict in only taking "cherry" setups and have found them few and far between during this time.)

When I look at the daily charts I see sideways movement, consolidation and possible direction changes. Basically, I see indecision in the two Euro pairs most of us trade.

Recently, I began looking up trend indicator ideas for the daily charts and decided to try a common tactic to get perhaps a better idea of what I thought I was seeing. Many veteran traders talk about putting a short, medium and long period set of moving averages on a chart to get an idea of whether a pair is trending or not - and by how strongly.

I used a set of MAs on the daily chart as described by Boris Schlossberg in an article on Investopedia. Boris mentioned a 7-, 20- and 65-period set of SMAs. I figured since I already keep a daily chart open for each of my trading pairs with the flag indis on them already, that I would just add the 20 and 65 SMAs to my 10-p SMA to see what it all looked like.

What you can observe is that several of the major pairs are currently twisted around in their short, medium and long term moving averages. On the Daily, EU has just recently come down from a long, steady bull run, followed by a fairly decisive bear move. Now it's a bit mixed up and we await the next direction.

Can this impact the viability of momentum-based strategies like flag trading? Or is the 5m timeframe largely immune from such considerations and am I just barking up the wrong tree? I don't have enough experience with this strategy to say one way or another. Perhaps someone like Div who has traded it for a long time can offer both insight and an opinion.
  • #4,568
  • Edited 1:50pm May 31, 2011 1:14pm | Edited 1:50pm
I had a look at your trade. The only thing I can think of is that the price had not taken out the previous swing high but then that is dubious as we are in a down trend. Everything else points to a short. The red SUB bar you have I would not have taken as my oscillators indicated a weakening of trend. The subsequent red bar after WOULD have been a losing trade for me.

The only other thing is whether you should have waited until price had taken out the 1.4365 area but it was already in a downtrend from before around 1.4399

Another thing is I think this was wave 5 or 6. I might go back and read what people say about these waves.
One more thing - put on a Parabolic Sar - that shows me its an uptrend. So in combination the AO and AC would keep me out of your SUB and the parabolic SAR would keep me out of the one I would have taken. Let me know your thoughts.
  • #4,569
  • May 31, 2011 4:46pm May 31, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting Finsia
I had a look at your trade. The only thing I can think of is that the price had not taken out the previous swing high but then that is dubious as we are in a down trend. Everything else points to a short. The red SUB bar you have I would not have taken as my oscillators indicated a weakening of trend. The subsequent red bar after WOULD have been a losing trade for me.

The only other thing is whether you should have waited until price had taken out the 1.4365 area but it was already in a downtrend from before around 1.4399

Another thing is I...
The way I had seen it was, the price had to stay below the pervious swing low to remain a down trend. I’m not sure what pervious high your referring to at the 4365 area? I thought we were treating every day as a new day as per Mr.D’s last webinar?

As far as the oscillators showing weakness, I am trying to keep this system as mechanical as possible and oscillator weakness is not one of the rules so ignored that.

Thanks for your feed back Finsia.
  • #4,570
  • May 31, 2011 5:23pm May 31, 2011 5:23pm
thanks for your prayers still not out of the woods with step daughter now her mother in law died the day she got out of hospitol. The eurusd has been horrific over the last couple of weeks what i am looking at is 3 minute charts with audusd and have found nice results i will keep you posted
  • #4,571
  • May 31, 2011 6:29pm May 31, 2011 6:29pm
Best wishes Divergence for your family.

Thank you for your generosity in providing this system and the webinars.
  • #4,572
  • May 31, 2011 6:38pm May 31, 2011 6:38pm
Quote
The way I had seen it was, the price had to stay below the pervious swing low to remain a down trend. I’m not sure what pervious high your referring to at the 4365 area? I thought we were treating every day as a new day as per Mr.D’s last webinar?

As far as the oscillators showing weakness, I am trying to keep this system as mechanical as possible and oscillator weakness is not one of the rules so ignored that.

Thanks for your feed back Finsia.

The swing I was talking about was the last high low at 5.40 - 7.00 on your time chart - but I don't think its really applicable as we are in a downtrend afterwards. I tried to keep this method without other indicators but there are so many sub bars when its ranging like it is that give false signals. (Given I have been looking at this for 2 weeks and the charts have been horrible see Div's post above). So I added in the awesome oscillator and also now I think I will use the SAR parabolic to confirm when is a good signal. I can only trade after hours when most markets are dormant so I want to separate a good signal from the noise.
  • #4,573
  • Jun 1, 2011 3:19am Jun 1, 2011 3:19am
Quoting thefallguy
I’m not sure what is going on with the market direction lately. I took this trade today thinking it was a down trend but obviously it wasn’t.
Maybe somebody seen the market differently today?


Price needs to take out the last HL and form a flag straight away...
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #4,574
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:24am Jun 1, 2011 9:24am
http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/daxgap.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #4,575
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:11am Jun 1, 2011 10:11am
!aio flag trading v2 indicator repaint? or redaw somehow the number after they were plotted on the chart?
  • #4,576
  • Edited 1:15pm Jun 1, 2011 12:27pm | Edited 1:15pm
Please add alert for divergence signal for !aio flag trading v2
  • #4,577
  • Jun 1, 2011 3:11pm Jun 1, 2011 3:11pm
very sad to hear that div,,all condolences and power to get through all this.
making money in JimB2468 trading room
  • #4,578
  • Jun 1, 2011 3:22pm Jun 1, 2011 3:22pm
hello to all from Bulgaria

i am trading on fxcm platform and can't add sma HL/2...its just 10 sma added to median...is it too much of a difference, and if anyone know how to get the custom sma for fxcm i would appreciate your help.
keep up the good work guys
  • #4,579
  • Jun 1, 2011 7:46pm Jun 1, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting speculant
hello to all from Bulgaria

i am trading on fxcm platform and can't add sma HL/2...its just 10 sma added to median...is it too much of a difference, and if anyone know how to get the custom sma for fxcm i would appreciate your help.
keep up the good work guys
I also trade on the fxcm platform and use the 10-period SMA drawn from the median and it's fine.
  • #4,580
  • Jun 2, 2011 7:22am Jun 2, 2011 7:22am
This appeared to be a textbook trade, but it failed. Wondered if anyone wants to discuss?

have to admit, i have had a few failed trades around middle of the day (GMT) now and am considering leaving the computer completely until at least 16:00...


http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/fucku.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
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