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vsa with Malcolm

  • #20,621
  • May 31, 2011 1:08pm May 31, 2011 1:08pm
What was everyone's Monday print?

On IBFX (closes at Tokyo open), closed as ND and failed to close above weekly channel median.
  • #20,622
  • May 31, 2011 2:55pm May 31, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting ivonivon
this is why i'm not giving the book title.
lolz

If your interested in the mechanics of your broker, then this is definitely worth a read.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484
  • #20,623
  • May 31, 2011 3:20pm May 31, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting frankkn
What was everyone's Monday print?

On IBFX (closes at Tokyo open), closed as ND and failed to close above weekly channel median.
forex.com (GMT 0 day start) had it looking like a hidden test.
Change is the only constant
  • #20,624
  • May 31, 2011 3:58pm May 31, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting frankkn
Hey Intel

Let's say you're watching this develop.

Other than observing potential selling, waiting for a confirmed UT and ND entry, do you have any other considerations in your mind at all?

By considerations I mean volume from other time frames, supply/demand levels, or channels?
If the setup is there, I will take it.
  • #20,625
  • May 31, 2011 5:05pm May 31, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting pres78
So I was travelling today and didn`t take any trades (wouldn`t have even if I was home with the GBP and USD holidays)...

Opened the laptop in my hotel room and saw just what was expected with a crappy 60pip range day but... it was a NS on the daily with SOS in the background. Back above the hull and PAL (NS into PAL), above the 38.2 retrace level at 4150 etc... 2 high volume downbars followed by upbars showing buyers.

Entry was 6pips above Monday high at 4320 (set pending went to supper, came back to find order triggered), Target is 4500 first...
Lot 2 still open... drifting.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,626
  • May 31, 2011 5:37pm May 31, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting pres78
Lot 2 still open... drifting.
SL moved to 4370 on lot 2 (BE+50)... another Asia jump!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,627
  • May 31, 2011 5:43pm May 31, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting frankkn
What was everyone's Monday print?

On IBFX (closes at Tokyo open), closed as ND and failed to close above weekly channel median.
Monday was a downbar so how do you have it as a ND?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,628
  • May 31, 2011 6:19pm May 31, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting pres78
Monday was a downbar so how do you have it as a ND?
hey pres, curious what time your day starts and ends. My broker printed Monday as the following (based on 0 GMT start and 23:59 GMt end).

O: 1.42888
H: 1.53516
L: 1.42561
C: 1.43321

So it was an upbar on half the volume, but dipped down to test a previous top so that's why i consider it a hidden test.
Change is the only constant
  • #20,629
  • May 31, 2011 7:34pm May 31, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting ivonivon
this is why i'm not giving the book title.
lolz
How one decide which pair will drop more?
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  • #20,630
  • May 31, 2011 8:28pm May 31, 2011 8:28pm
http://upnhanh.sieuthinhanh.com/tmpi...u5nt27209.jpeg
  • #20,631
  • May 31, 2011 9:26pm May 31, 2011 9:26pm
So it looks like both London and NY sessions were busy shaking out the weak holders and buying into their selling. 1hr shows it pretty clear IMHO. I have marked what was the lowest 1hr close at 4372 (held up for quite awhile)... oh and did I mention that this was Asia's highest volume close level trigger as well... to the pip.


1. Bar 1 was the LO bar. This bar was sold into as we had an incease in volume with the next bar down. As of it's printing it was the highest volume bar of the day. Reaction on next bar did down selling but not a huge amount. (Compare this to the spread on that buyers bar which followed what was the highest volume of the Asia session)... Buyers working harder than the sellers so far.


2. Weak UT (ND if not for spread) creating the days high with the next bar down. Some more minor SOW. Higher volume UT is much better IMO as with the next bar down we would get some feeling that SM were actually selling rather than just pulling out topside interest. This is a bit of a clue that any shorts down would most likely be short lived.


So now 1hr after LO we have a range formed between the high volume upbar with the next bar being up obviously represnted buyers absorbing some supply (look at May 9th and 11th) and the higher volume upbar which contained some sellers (not much reaction though).


3. Some more sellers but still no follow through. Could not even close below the low of the weak UT.


4. NY open buyers? The previous bar was a No selling pressure leading into the NY open... wide spread but absolutely no volume to match... Weak SO.


5. Now here is where most of the "herd" would get caught shorting if trading the 1hr charts. We had an increased volume upbar closing off it's high followed by a powerful looking downbar (guranteed the EU thread sold this bar the whole way down) but us VSA'ers know that we don't sell downbars... we sell upbars just like SM does. So this bar makes the current NY/London low but closes well off it's low back above that trigger on a major increase in volume... Most likely we are seeing hidden buyers. Wait and see...

6. We have moved sideways so no major buying confirmed from bar 5 but sideways does confirm that there was at least enough to absorb the sellers that were there. Previous to bar 6 we had a low volume UT downbar - test into the 4372 trigger closing above... SOS, lack of supply. Bar 6 itself finally was able to close below the trigger but not below the low of the bar 6 and was a major drop off in supply. Major SOW into a new low area for NY session... this bar was actually the first bar after London close. This tells me that we will most likely see another NY only drift up. The next bar was a bullish engulfing which also appeared to be a No Buying pressure but in fact after the NS I think this was simple a product of no supply left to keep the prices down.

7. SO type bar, downbar increased volume closing well off it`s lows, next bar up, buyers...

8. Basic test... SOS

I don`t know if it will keep heading up but we should see at least 1.45 later today is 4450 gives way.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,632
  • May 31, 2011 9:32pm May 31, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting tgwhbb
hey pres, curious what time your day starts and ends. My broker printed Monday as the following (based on 0 GMT start and 23:59 GMt end).

O: 1.42888
H: 1.53516
L: 1.42561
C: 1.43321

So it was an upbar on half the volume, but dipped down to test a previous top so that's why i consider it a hidden test.
GMT+1...

O:4310
H:4314
L:4254
C:4284

So that means I opened and close 1 bar later giving me a NS vs a ND...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,633
  • May 31, 2011 9:38pm May 31, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting nguahoang
http://upnhanh.sieuthinhanh.com/tmpi...u5nt27209.jpeg
And might I ask what was the basis for your long entry so others can learn from your chart. I assume your trading a countertrend retrace into your trendline since you are below it and all of your moving averages all stacked for a downtrend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,634
  • May 31, 2011 9:38pm May 31, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting pres78
So it looks like both London and NY sessions were busy shaking out the weak holders and buying into their selling. 1hr shows it pretty clear IMHO. I have marked what was the lowest 1hr close at 4372 (held up for quite awhile)... oh and did I mention that this was Asia's highest volume close level trigger as well... to the pip.



I don`t know if it will keep heading up but we should see at least 1.45 later today is 4450 gives way.
Brilliant Pres78. Thankyou for your very informative posts- they really are super.
  • #20,635
  • May 31, 2011 9:41pm May 31, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting pres78
And might I ask what was the basis for your long entry so others can learn from your chart. I assume your trading a countertrend retrace into your trendline since you are below it and all of your moving averages all stacked for a downtrend.
Thanks Pres78
  • #20,636
  • May 31, 2011 10:19pm May 31, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting nguahoang
Thanks Pres78
For what.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,637
  • May 31, 2011 10:28pm May 31, 2011 10:28pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
I want to talk about what Gavin said something about trade with the trend and ignore the sign in opposite direction, concentrate on the signs in direction of the trend. Piece of cake, I'm gonna be enjoying my freedom of doing and living haw I like...yeah sure, is not so easy, if you follow just one time frame you got some chance in doing that but you're obviously missing the main picture which is supposed to increase probability in your favor. But if you want to follow the main pictures and define the trend as consecutive higher lows with higher highs for a uptrend and consecutive lower highs with lower lows for downtrend we will see that at this point on 4h chart we had a strong down trend formed at the beginning of may and last week we broke the trend andwe retrace almost 50% is a new trend or just a retracement? 1h chart is in uptrend and 15 minis in uptrend too...so my question is haw we trade with the trend we are looking just to go long and we ignore 4h which I can't say it changed for now the down move or we are trading with hull or diamond in trade guider if they are green is uptrend and vice versa. Right now after I wrote all this I'm realythinking to look for SOS, funny when I start to write this I was confused....anyway trade with the trend it gives me headache...I really would love if someone could make some light...
By the way press 78, the price at ensign package is 49.95 or if not I would need to ask a refund....
  • #20,638
  • May 31, 2011 10:31pm May 31, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting s7c
By the way pres 78, the price at ensign package is 49.95 or if not I would need to ask a refund....
Not sure I follow what you are saying to me... do you own ensign.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,639
  • May 31, 2011 10:34pm May 31, 2011 10:34pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Better volume indicator and HLC bars you have on ensign chart are paid apps or you can share them or point me into right direction?
Thanks, sorry for bring this here but he doesn't have enabled the private message option...
  • #20,640
  • May 31, 2011 10:39pm May 31, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting s7c
I want to talk about what Gavin said something about trade with the trend and ignore the sign in opposite direction, concentrate on the signs in direction of the trend. Piece of cake, I'm gonna be enjoying my freedom of doing and living haw I like...yeah sure, is not so easy, if you follow just one time frame you got some chance in doing that but you're obviously missing the main picture which is supposed to increase probability in your favor. But if you want to follow the main pictures and define the trend as consecutive higher lows with higher...
Waiting for daily to form a trend or show a clear trend reversal takes forever... if you want to trade in conjunction with higher TF it`s not trend per say you are waiting for. If EU say has been trending clearly up or down on 4hr then you would drop to lower TF and look for matching SOS or SOW for entries going with the 4hr trend. Daily trend is a little harder as we can have a 400 pip drop which gives some nice short entries but the whole thing just be a retrace in and overall uptrend.

If you see SOS on say a 1hr chart, then you could drop to a 15min and look for matching SOS for long entry so as not to have to wait for the added SOS on the higher TF and allowing earlier entries. Even Malc who trades 12hr charts takes his entries off 15 and 30 min charts.

For multi TF trading I almost look at it more as trading with the SOS or SOW rather than trading with the trend... trend is such a tricky word and hard to define at times. Take the daily chart for a pair zoomed in and define trend... zoom out and out and out and out until you can`t anymore and see if the original trend is still what you see...

Or you could trade like HG completely off 1 TF... even Gavin says (I think) that he defines trend based on the chart and TF he is trading.

Just my 2 cents...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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