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vsa with Malcolm

  • #20,601
  • May 30, 2011 8:14pm May 30, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting frankkn
I thought this was going to be a shake out but it's a much wider spread up bar on ultra high volume closing off the highs. There could be selling in this bar.
i think it's a push thru supply.
looks like the strength i mentioned in my recent post here is still playing out.

btw, i see a wide spread downbar on eurchf, on Friday (IBFX demo, 20.00 time).
i'd like to ask those with IBFX demo/live, if u have the same OHLC (particularly the low)?
O 1.2179
H 1.2185
L 1.2085
C 1.2126

Oanda live Friday low was 1.2101
thank you!
  • #20,602
  • May 30, 2011 8:17pm May 30, 2011 8:17pm
Still waiting around for an up thrust
  • #20,603
  • May 30, 2011 8:21pm May 30, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting supremeChaos
i think it's a push thru supply.
looks like the strength i mentioned in my recent post here is still playing out.

btw, i see a wide spread downbar on eurchf, on Friday (IBFX demo, 20.00 time).
i'd like to ask those with IBFX demo/live, if u have the same OHLC (particularly the low)?
O 1.2179
H 1.2185
L 1.2085
C 1.2126

Oanda live Friday low was 1.2101
thank you!
Same low bro. (from my IBFX demo feed)

Definitely could be absorption, I've been sitting on my hands and watching so far
  • #20,604
  • May 30, 2011 8:37pm May 30, 2011 8:37pm
it's end of month today.
looks like eur$ will close today/this week&month above 1.43
if it closes today above 1.43 (ideally +/-1.44), & this week at 1.43+ (ideally at/above 1.44 - 1.45), then i think it's not farfetched that it takes a stab at 1.50 again.
EU is hanging on.. still bullish (despite all the news) hahah
  • #20,605
  • May 30, 2011 9:18pm May 30, 2011 9:18pm
So I was travelling today and didn`t take any trades (wouldn`t have even if I was home with the GBP and USD holidays)...

Opened the laptop in my hotel room and saw just what was expected with a crappy 60pip range day but... it was a NS on the daily with SOS in the background. Back above the hull and PAL (NS into PAL), above the 38.2 retrace level at 4150 etc... 2 high volume downbars followed by upbars showing buyers.

Entry was 6pips above Monday high at 4320 (set pending went to supper, came back to find order triggered), Target is 4500 first (for lot 2) (old swing high to the left).

1. SOS WRB on UHV, some buyers found and knocked market sideways (price gapped up on the weekend technically making the bar after an upbar)
2. SOS WRB on high volume, next bar up
3. SOS possible selling climax into new low, next bar up
4. SOS SO, next bar up

Now I was confused a bit by the bar after the SO type bar as it looked like a ND - UT bar (SOW) but I think that there was enough SOS already to void this bar. Besides the fact that May 26th afternoon drop was IMHO just a SM SO off bad news after the NYSE opened... great way to buy in cheaper.

5. NS - from Monday...

Yes the bar before was a WR upbar on high volume with the next bar down however not really a SOW as the downbar was a major NS. Perhaps it was a NS only because of the holidays but I don`t care as I have booked 80pips on lot 1 so this is now a free trade with my lot 2 moved to BE. If the NS was not true weakness I will get stopped out on lot 2 and go from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,606
  • May 30, 2011 10:11pm May 30, 2011 10:11pm
I stand by my analysis, imo the market was week at the time. I never said that testing was weakness, what I implied was that a failure of those tests would show more weakness. The sarcasm is uncalled for, I was merely stating an opinion.
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
testing of a previous, broken high after NO-VOL ut's is weakness? interesting...
  • #20,607
  • May 30, 2011 10:28pm May 30, 2011 10:28pm
which broker are you using? fxcm daily vol is useless...
Quoting pres78
So I was travelling today and didn`t take any trades (wouldn`t have even if I was home with the GBP and USD holidays)...

Opened the laptop in my hotel room and saw just what was expected with a crappy 60pip range day but... it was a NS on the daily with SOS in the background. Back above the hull and PAL (NS into PAL), above the 38.2 retrace level at 4150 etc... 2 high volume downbars followed by upbars showing buyers.

Entry was 6pips above Monday high at 4320 (set pending went to supper, came back to find order triggered), Target is 4500 first...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,608
  • May 30, 2011 10:31pm May 30, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting apple_sauce
which broker are you using? fxcm daily vol is useless...
looks like FXCM MT4 has a Sunday bar? live/demo?
based on his chart, it's Tadawul FX.
  • #20,609
  • May 30, 2011 10:53pm May 30, 2011 10:53pm
interesting... that screenshot was from an mt4 fxcm demo ... here is a comparison between fxcm demo mt4, and the fxcm platform real account... they are WAY different. Look at the volume spike on the chart on the right, on pres's chart its actually a low volume bar. Can anyone confirm this?
Quoting supremeChaos
looks like FXCM MT4 has a Sunday bar? live/demo?
based on his chart, it's Tadawul FX.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,610
  • Edited May 31, 2011 7:53am May 30, 2011 11:15pm | Edited May 31, 2011 7:53am
Is this a good trade?

On the left is a H1 EU chart, the dashed vertical line is a buying climax (SOW). On the right is the same chart, but I decided to look for a ND bar on the M5 instead in order to find a tighter entry. The vertical bar is the ND bar I found.

Stop-loss is slightly above the ND bar, and TP is yesterday's point of control using Market Profile.

Did I done good, ma?

EDIT: apparently not, stopped out lol
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  • #20,611
  • May 30, 2011 11:45pm May 30, 2011 11:45pm
Quoting lolpie
...
On the left is a H1 EU chart, the dashed vertical line is a buying climax (SOW). On the right is the same chart, but I decided to look for a ND bar on the M5 instead in order to find a tighter entry. The vertical bar is the ND bar I found.
...
hello lopie,
why do u say it's a BC?

is the vol exceptionally high? definitely not high, most definitely unexceptional. kindly check your chart
narrow spread? no
new high ground? yes

hope this helps
  • #20,612
  • May 31, 2011 4:50am May 31, 2011 4:50am
Quoting pres78
SL management 1... (Sometimes the best MM is knowing when not to trade!)


Take the day off when both GBP and USD are on holidays... SM doesn't trade 5 days a week every week so why should we?


Today was a bad day to trade and is not a good example to use for where to place SL... Also the bar you marked is a hidden test and these can be traded but are more risky as they are an upbar and upbars can contain hidden selling since these are what SM sells into.

On a normal day as soon as the next bar UT'd to take me in and then closed back below...
Ty pres78. you gave me lot's great advices here ;-) For sure trading during the holidays was a bad idea.

About the bar after my entry, you're right too. It was a very bad one and I've to be more strict and close immediately when I see that.

Thanks again! :-)
  • #20,613
  • May 31, 2011 6:10am May 31, 2011 6:10am
Quoting lolpie
Is this a good trade?

On the left is a H1 EU chart, the dashed vertical line is a buying climax (SOW). On the right is the same chart, but I decided to look for a ND bar on the M5 instead in order to find a tighter entry. The vertical bar is the ND bar I found.

Stop-loss is slightly above the ND bar, and TP is yesterday's point of control using Market Profile.

Did I done good, ma?
Not a buying climax if the next bar is up (also close should be lower in the bar)... buying climax should be followed by a downbar to confirm sellers. Also BC's are only one piece of a short trade. You need to see furthers SOW after.

BC's can sometimes print as we push up through supply.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #20,614
  • May 31, 2011 7:03am May 31, 2011 7:03am
just read a great book in forex.
here's the quote

Quote
In my experience. mOst retail FX traders seem to have a decent system or genuine "feel" for the market, yet more often than not they still find themselves posting steady losses. They see the possibility for greatness. yet they are unable to grasp it. Something must be missing ... but what? Although they may spend hours dutifully studying technical analysis, candle charting, and the history of the market, seldom do they take a moment to concentrate on their number one killer: the forex dealer. By preying on the small speculator, these shadowy characters are often single-handedly responsible for turning winning trades into losers.

Both casinos and FX brokers have an ace up their sleeve which ensures that the odds are always shifted aggressively against a player, and not surprisingly these villains share a common name. Dealers are much more than simple order-processors (do you want to buy/sell. hit/stay?); they are in fact the house's fail-safe device sent out to take down any player who is deemed to be winning "too much". Their direct and purposerul interference can ruin even the most advanced or elegant trading system.

Have you ever had your stop hit at a price that turned out to be the lowlhigh for the day?! Bad luck perhaps? Maybe. What if it happens more than once? Do you ever feel like the market is "out to get you?' Well , guess what ... in this zero-sum game it absolutely is.
Dealers make particularly tough opponents for traders because they act on better information. Although it is hard to bluff when the other party knows your cards, you can however profit by betting on their actions. and a dealer's actions are, after all, very predictable. You know what they want (your money) and you have a rough idea of how they will come after it (running stops, shading prices. fading moves, etc.): all that you now need is a way to exploit these actions. Throughout this book you will find information meant to help you identify and counteract typical dealer traps, which if implemented correctly can instantly improve your trading profits.
Many of these are exactly the same techniques used by hedge funds and eTAs to exploit loopholes left by their dealers. which can also be used successfully by the retail trader.

Make no mistake about it. There is a lot of money 10 be made in currency trading; you just have to know where to look. Sidestepping dealer traps is one simple way of improving your daily P/L, but it is surely not the only one. Successful trading comes down to taking care of the details, and for me the only way to do this is by
providing concrete, up-to-date real-life examples, and sharing the FX trading tips that have proved so profitable over the years.

In the end, it is my hope that by stripping away the theory and getting down to the core of trading you too may find yourself well on your way to beating the forex dealer!
  • #20,615
  • May 31, 2011 8:45am May 31, 2011 8:45am
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
just read a great book in forex.
here's the quote


Quote:
In my experience. mOst retail FX traders seem ...........
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That,s not a quote. It's a wonderfully written sales pitch. Identify problem, connect with reader, supply solution.

Just catching up with this thread after being away and can agree with the comments that it is going down hill. Starting to see 'the blind leading the blind'.

If you have a question, try to find the answer in MTM. Most of the answers are there if not alredy spoken about in the first 500 pages of this thread. Read thread from the start. Gavin has recently provided more info on bar descriptions (pt 2 of his book, free) so there is no excuse to incorrectly label bars on your charts that you post here.

Effort and quality go a long way in your learning and the results with show up in your trading.

Rant over, happy trading
  • #20,616
  • May 31, 2011 10:11am May 31, 2011 10:11am
Quoting Aspire
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
just read a great book in forex.
here's the quote


Quote:
In my experience. mOst retail FX traders seem ...........
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That,s not a quote. It's a wonderfully written sales pitch. Identify problem, connect with reader, supply solution.

Just catching up with this thread after being away and can agree with the comments that it is going down hill. Starting to see 'the blind leading the blind'.

If you have a question, try to find the answer in MTM. Most of the answers are there if not...
this is why i'm not giving the book title.
lolz
  • #20,617
  • May 31, 2011 10:53am May 31, 2011 10:53am
Quoting lolpie
Is this a good trade?

On the left is a H1 EU chart, the dashed vertical line is a buying climax (SOW). On the right is the same chart, but I decided to look for a ND bar on the M5 instead in order to find a tighter entry. The vertical bar is the ND bar I found.

Stop-loss is slightly above the ND bar, and TP is yesterday's point of control using Market Profile.

Did I done good, ma?

EDIT: apparently not, stopped out lol
#

Your instinct for a trade is ok but, your recognition of a tradeable setup was at fault.

An alternative view for you.
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  • #20,618
  • Edited 12:40pm May 31, 2011 12:02pm | Edited 12:40pm
any thoughts on current eu 30m...to me i see a SO(highlighted)..then several bars later a test on low volume(highlighted ) of the SO uhv area...what i dont get is the 3 bars between say ND to me so im not sure what to really think..bad time of day too as volume is falling off..anyone else got a different perspective? i have a feeling im not reading deep enough into this chart to really know whats going on so i was hoping someone else had some thoughts... best regards, TX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,619
  • May 31, 2011 12:51pm May 31, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Trader_X
any thoughts on current eu 30m...to me i see a SO(highlighted)..then several bars later a test on low volume(highlighted ) of the SO uhv area...what i dont get is the 3 bars between say ND to me so im not sure what to really think..bad time of day too as volume is falling off..anyone else got a different perspective? i have a feeling im not reading deep enough into this chart to really know whats going on so i was hoping someone else had some thoughts... best regards, TX
My vsa analysis is that there is something fishy going on but not exactly sure...
  • #20,620
  • May 31, 2011 1:05pm May 31, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting Intel
#

Your instinct for a trade is ok but, your recognition of a tradeable setup was at fault.

An alternative view for you.
Hey Intel

Let's say you're watching this develop.

Other than observing potential selling, waiting for a confirmed UT and ND entry, do you have any other considerations in your mind at all?

By considerations I mean volume from other time frames, supply/demand levels, or channels?
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