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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,721
  • May 27, 2011 7:31am May 27, 2011 7:31am
Quoting Evak
Just a point to ponder with regards to context..

1: We have selling tail on both sessions...no excess (yet?)
2: London did not takeout Asia's high
3: Asia inventory was long, London inventory is neutral for now (or merely short) but price right now is struggling to take out Asia close.
4: London IB volume was 15% above avg.
5: POC should migrate lower as price should be filling in the LUA (single print seen in Asia)

So what are the odds of NY taking out the highs of today?

Sidenote: if u set your rowheight to 3tick, your tail will be more pronounce...
Long entry made on NY open..exposure reduce after market took out previous session high...target to VPOC as shown on the daily profiles. which is also around 1xIB of the NY session rx..(some concerns about US economy compares to Euro problem..)


session & daily profiles
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  • #2,722
  • May 27, 2011 4:04pm May 27, 2011 4:04pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
I've decided some time ago to include profile indicator in my trading so for that i start using ensign platform (not a MT4 fan) but after i start to accommodate with the POC, VAH/VAL which helped me in my trading but just as support/resistance areas i saw is something more in here and i started to read Steidlmayer on Markets book which i didn't finish yet but opened my eyes in using market profile charts instead of using profile indicator on the charts. so for that i switched to investor RT platform which is a great platform for market profile chart but with some serious problems beside... anyway the idea is i want to start to use market profile on mt4 platform because of the very good applications i saw on this forum and because i want to use market profile on few forex pairs and on few futures symbols i need a reliable broker to open a demo platform which provides forex/futures data, is anybody who know a broker with unlimited reliable demo on forex/futures markets using mt4?
thank's, i hope soon i will contribute my self a little to this thread
  • #2,723
  • May 27, 2011 11:51pm May 27, 2011 11:51pm
Quoting s7c
I've decided some time ago to include profile indicator in my trading so for that i start using ensign platform (not a MT4 fan) but after i start to accommodate with the POC, VAH/VAL which helped me in my trading but just as support/resistance areas i saw is something more in here and...
http://www.brocompany.com/trading-pl.../broco-trader/
  • #2,724
  • May 28, 2011 12:17am May 28, 2011 12:17am
Quoting Evak
Long entry made on NY open..exposure reduce after market took out previous session high...target to VPOC as shown on the daily profiles. which is also around 1xIB of the NY session rx..(some concerns about US economy compares to Euro problem..)


session & daily profiles
Attachment
WOW..

Last 5 mins b4 market close price the eventually get pull in the the VPOC & close off the highs looking unbalance next week. (daily profile)

Attached Image
  • #2,725
  • Edited 5:12am May 28, 2011 12:46am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting Evak
Just a point to ponder with regards to context..

1: We have selling tail on both sessions...no excess (yet?)
2: London did not takeout Asia's high
3: Asia inventory was long, London inventory is neutral for now (or merely short) but price right now is struggling to take out Asia close.
4: London IB volume was 15% above avg.
5: POC should migrate lower as price should be filling in the LUA (single print seen in Asia)

So what are the odds of NY taking out the highs of today?

Sidenote: if u set your rowheight to 3tick, your tail will be more pronounce...
Just a post mortem for EU session profile & to add what i miss earlier.

1: Asia Inventory was Long then..
2: London open with a open drive but fail to take out Asia high due to excess of inventory in Asia (so that is the probable outcome under such context)
3: London traded back down to eventually fill the LUA which i have mentioned earlier but ROTATING BACK UP eventually creating a auction area here.THIS IS indicative of Asia inventory's weak longs being FORCE OUT to clear the way for a probable upside.
4: NY open with a open drive & push through previous session high in 1st A period but eventually settle to rotate but eventually end up higher..

Add: So in JD's term, "the market didn't care" even when Asia inventory was short but market was looking value higher.......

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  • #2,726
  • May 28, 2011 8:49am May 28, 2011 8:49am
Quoting Evak
Just a post mortem for EU...
With this sort of price action, I think other time frame player enter the market again.

Also, on daily chart, one time frame up possibility is confirmed. So next week strategy will be wait for pull back low and buy some more.
  • #2,727
  • May 28, 2011 11:27pm May 28, 2011 11:27pm
Quoting Evak
......

Add: So in JD's term, "the market didn't care" even when *Asia inventory was short but market was looking value higher.......

Attachment
* Errata, it should be London instead of Asia inventory being short as indicated in the charts..
  • #2,728
  • May 30, 2011 8:03pm May 30, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting tgwhbb

if there is acceptance near last week's POC, then up to 4400 would be my next target as that is the monthly VAH, and previous week's naked POC.

My 2c. But note there is also a naked POC from this week down at 4083, which IMO will need to get revisited. weakness at 4260 POC could send EU back down to 4080 area.
EU approaching 1.44 - May VAH, week of May 5th VAH/POC - longs are risky here IMO until value is accepted. Thoughts?
Change is the only constant
  • #2,729
  • May 31, 2011 1:09am May 31, 2011 1:09am
Quoting tgwhbb
EU approaching 1.44 - May VAH, week of May 5th VAH/POC - longs are risky here IMO until value is accepted. Thoughts?
I m long on European open now, Due to excess generated this morning i think the moves will be another leg to 4450 at least...as usual i'll reduce exposure on the test of today high...just in case London not interest in taking out the highs or liquidation break appears, prior to NY.

I will post some charts later...
  • #2,730
  • May 31, 2011 1:22am May 31, 2011 1:22am
I'm offline this week for a holiday in guam USA.
Trade safe guys n gals, especially this Friday NFP!
  • #2,731
  • May 31, 2011 1:27am May 31, 2011 1:27am
Currently price have taken out previous two weeks profile high, & now should be on the verge on undoing the previous 3rd week profile high. Previous 3rd week fair price may also force current levels to be balance prior to any moves...

Anomaly spotted on the previous 4th week profile @4450 should provide an intermediate pause for this moves...

VPOC is around 4850.

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  • #2,732
  • May 31, 2011 1:48am May 31, 2011 1:48am
Evak can you post your session profiles chart. Wanted to see how mine compared and if I have indie setup right.

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  • #2,733
  • May 31, 2011 2:03am May 31, 2011 2:03am
Quoting Nverstop
Evak can you post your session profiles chart. Wanted to see how mine compared and if I have indie setup right.

Attachment
Looks fine to me...

FYI, updated version posted earlier tks to mzvega, minor updates to DIBs
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2011%2010:33pm

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  • #2,734
  • May 31, 2011 3:06am May 31, 2011 3:06am
hi evak,
would you tell me,how you combine the weekly profile on post 2731?is that bandung's ay-tpochart session?
thanks
  • #2,735
  • May 31, 2011 3:24am May 31, 2011 3:24am
Quote from JD's glossary "balance and excess are the two most important concepts you will be introduced to because they signify change or the potential for change to take place. "
--

Here perhaps is a good example of this concept in EU session profile:
1:Right after Yesterday's NY session horizontal development (holiday) we see the start of rally today prior to Tokyo open...
2:Then the rally after Tokyo opens generated an excess (start of new auction) in which eventually market balance higher with symmetry. Indicating acceptance of this new auction.
3:The excess break out point provide a reference level for potential London opening dip..
4: London open with an opening test drive with responsive just below Asia fair value.
5: Asia high was taken out one during IB period indicate confidence.

Note that inventory is long & the risk of overlapping value now is near. Therefore the context of excessive-ness of inventory have to be factor in for this cautious up move..

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  • #2,736
  • May 31, 2011 6:25am May 31, 2011 6:25am
Quoting otnishan
hi evak,
would you tell me,how you combine the weekly profile on post 2731?is that bandung's ay-tpochart session?
thanks
Is not base on ay-tpochart session but the ay-tpocharts v1.02 u can find in this thread attachment.

Just set your "profiletimeframe" settings to W1 (weekly)

my "WeeklyProfiledataTf is H4 for text base profile, is up to u, H1 is fine if u want more granularity.

*ignore the "Daystarthour" (default is 0) since it don't apply on charts for weekly & above.
  • #2,737
  • May 31, 2011 9:48am May 31, 2011 9:48am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i think i need some help, i installed some apps from bandung and i followed the instructions but i don't know, it doesn't like it supposed to...i saw in the past a detailed explanation on haw to make'it work but i wasn't interested at that point in mt4 and now i was looking for it but i cannot find'it. what i wanna get is very close of ewak charts but to be able to combine london+new york for daily profile and weekly profile if the app is different from daily or i can use the daily with different settings? so as you see i'm kind of lost in mt4 indis territory, so any help i can get here will be very much appreciated.
thank you, sorin.
  • #2,738
  • Edited 10:37am May 31, 2011 10:30am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting s7c
i think i need some help, i installed some apps from bandung and i followed the instructions but i don't know, it doesn't like it supposed to...i saw in the past a detailed explanation on haw to make'it work but i wasn't interested at that point in mt4 and now i was looking for it but i cannot find'it. what i wanna get is very close of ewak charts but to be able to combine london+new york for daily profile and weekly profile if the app is different from daily or i can use the daily with different settings? so as you see i'm kind of lost in mt4 indis...
Try setting asia session start hour the same as Londons start hour (@ 7-8 gmt depending on your personal preference) to get the profile to start building in the london hour. That would be for the daily.Now the weekly, Im not sure its possible how the code is written. It would be very complicated to change, the weekly profiles are based off Daily data, to leave out the asian session would not make sense to me, imo. The current asian sessions data would then go where? back into the previous week? wouldnt you have to wait for the asian session to end in the new week before you can determine, levels & projections for the new week? But anywy try setting asia & london to star at the same time. I hope this helps somewhat.

ay-TPOChart.v1.02 set to DayStartHour to london start hour
ay-TPOChart-Session.v.100 set asia & london to start at the same time
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,739
  • May 31, 2011 12:11pm May 31, 2011 12:11pm
folks, today is the end of May, and with a wide London IB EU should close off the month within the IB range between 4366 and 4412 IMO which is the top of the monthly profile as attached. EU looks stronger now than before, having repaired the anomalies from March's 'normal' month (to use JD's terminology), plus the lack of excess at the top indicates the up move may not be finished yet. May will end up as a 'b' shape, which JD says can be strength but depends on the context, given the previous months profiles, i think the context is there to be considered as strength. closest upside targets marked on the chart, not a coincidence they are 100 pips apart

Not posted, but to add weight, yesterday printed as a test day in vsa terms, another sign of strength. Although US and London markets were closed yesterday, one must remember than money never sleeps...

Thoughts on the longer term view?

short term, i think EU may dip to around 4350 to test yesterday's Asia breakout...
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,740
  • May 31, 2011 1:35pm May 31, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting Evak
Quote from JD's glossary "[i]balance and excess are the two most important concepts you will be...
Price have tested the excess break level in this NY session not to mentioned the one in London too. & bounce off it, strengths appearing as price now trading into fair price.

No anomaly spotted below the excess of Asia session may suggess no more interest for that area..perhaps...

Another Asia rally again?

Inventory is mostly short about 60/40...for NY
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