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  • #2,701
  • May 26, 2011 9:21pm May 26, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting mzvega
From our indi 1.5 (1.50%) should be before dib (200%) not shown on our indi. But to add it using the same math would be 1.5 range +ibh makes it greater than 200%.
Hi Claudia,

Not sure if you are referring to the indi i wrote, but if you are the math is simply IBH + (n*IB), or IBL - (n*IB), where n = the extension, so:

n=1 --> IBH + IB, IBL - IB (this is the first extension, commonly known as DIBH/L and is equal to 200% the IB when computed form the opposite end of the range)
n=2 --> IBH + 2*IB, IBL - 2*IB (this is the second extension, or 300%)

So following that math, the 1.5 extension would result in n=0.5, or IBH + (0.5*IB), not n=1.5 as you are calculating.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,702
  • May 26, 2011 9:21pm May 26, 2011 9:21pm
Looks like path of least resistance is up ( after the shakeout)
1st target MPOC 1.4223
than 1.4338
Attached is the chart.
Any suggestion claudia, Jamie, alexm, evak ??
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  • #2,703
  • May 26, 2011 9:40pm May 26, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting skyscraper
Looks like path of least resistance is up ( after the shakeout)
1st target MPOC 1.4223
than 1.4338
Attached is the chart.
Any suggestion claudia, Jamie, alexm, evak ??
looks right to me, although maybe slightly different prices. today price broke into and held at the bottom of last week's value area, suggesting a continuation up through the VA. Since last week's POC is at the top of its VA it suggests infact that other timeframe buyers were in control of that area. The VAH for last week was 4277 and POC 4260, so i think more likely that 4223.

if there is acceptance near last week's POC, then up to 4400 would be my next target as that is the monthly VAH, and previous week's naked POC.

My 2c. But note there is also a naked POC from this week down at 4083, which IMO will need to get revisited. weakness at 4260 POC could send EU back down to 4080 area.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,704
  • May 26, 2011 9:51pm May 26, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi Claudia,

Not sure if you are referring to the indi i wrote, but if you are the math is simply IBH + (n*IB), or IBL - (n*IB), where n = the extension, so:

n=1 --> IBH + IB, IBL - IB (this is the first extension, commonly known as DIBH/L and is equal to 200% the IB when computed form the opposite end of the range)
n=2 --> IBH + 2*IB, IBL - 2*IB (this is the second extension, or 300%)

So following that math, the 1.5 extension would result in n=0.5, or IBH + (0.5*IB), not n=1.5 as you are calculating.
Thanx!, I was using (and refering to) the wrong x as dib all this time!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,705
  • May 26, 2011 9:54pm May 26, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting skyscraper
Looks like path of least resistance is up ( after the shakeout)
1st target MPOC 1.4223
than 1.4338
Attached is the chart.
Any suggestion claudia, Jamie, alexm, evak ??
Dont have all my charts up but we also just came off yearly & quarterly vah's. looks bullish also, imo.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,706
  • Edited 10:19pm May 26, 2011 10:16pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting skyscraper
Looks like path of least resistance is up ( after the shakeout)
1st target MPOC 1.4223
than 1.4338
Attached is the chart.
Any suggestion claudia, Jamie, alexm, evak ??
Im not trading but I hope you took that trade!
my bad! if I saw the chart more closely, id see you were in
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,707
  • May 26, 2011 10:37pm May 26, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting mzvega
Im not trading but I hope you took that trade!
my bad! if I saw the chart more closely, id see you were in
TP @ 4270 hit and out, although looking like a trend day in the works...but wont be in front on computer all day tomorrow so can't take advantage of it unfortunately...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,708
  • May 26, 2011 10:40pm May 26, 2011 10:40pm
hmm, price reversed @4277, last week VAH to the pip! down 20 pips in less than 5 min from there...now the question is will london rotate around here like they did yesterday signaling acceptance...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,709
  • May 26, 2011 10:43pm May 26, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting Evak
Can't help but to grab a shot as it hit previous NY fair price zone just after 2xIB of this session also..since previous NY profile was definitely not weak hands since Asia break out with conviction today..

Will hold till the cows come home..

LUA between 4100 & 4150 should provide the platform for Asia...

Attachment
Wow, another asia rally..

1: NY inventory was short
2: Asia open with an open test drive, drove pass POC & continue on..up
3: exceeds 3xIB ++, IB is below avg suggesting greater rx.
4: expect overlapping london range perhaps..
*note that the LUA between 4100 & 4150 i spoke about earlier, was filled by end of NY ...balancing nicely there..

Will reduce exposure on close my megapip trade soon...but i think 4300 may be hit


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  • #2,710
  • May 26, 2011 10:53pm May 26, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting Evak
Wow, another asia rally..

1: NY inventory was short
2: Asia open with an open test drive, drove pass POC & continue on..up
3: exceeds 3xIB ++
4: expect overlapping london range perhaps..
*note that the LUA between 4100 & 4150 i spoke about earlier, was filled by end of NY ...balancing nicely there..

Will reduce exposure on close my megapip trade soon...but i think 4300 may be hit

Attachment
Hi evak! wondering how you qualify NY session as being short. It started in the upper distribution, quickly moved to the lower distribution, then distributed in between and formed a VA with POC near the high indicating session was dominated by other timeframe buyers. Does that not indicate inventory was long?
Change is the only constant
  • #2,711
  • Edited May 27, 2011 12:02am May 26, 2011 11:41pm | Edited May 27, 2011 12:02am
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi evak! wondering how you qualify NY session as being short. It started in the upper distribution, quickly moved to the lower distribution, then distributed in between and formed a VA with POC near the high indicating session was dominated by other timeframe buyers. Does that not indicate inventory was long?
Not at the...according to JD if all (or most) of the inventory is below the settle price of the overnight...then is SHORT. Vice versa , if all the settle price is above it then it is Long. If the inventory falls in between the settle price & have a 50/50 tpo count on both side of the settle, then is Neutral.

"It is as simple as that". (That is what JD say when he explain overnight inventory)

It does not really matter where the price have been trading or rotating up or down the ladder withing the value just so long as Where the majority TPO count falls in relation to settle...

IN EU yesterday, most of the TPO counts fall way below the "London profile close (settled) price" NOTE: NOT THE ACTUAL LONDON CLOSE)

Due to overlap session between NY & London; NY session open supersedes the inventory in this case. Therefore London inventory stops when NY starts.

Of coz one would argue since London close way below then inventory have to be long, right? But how do u account for the overlap inventory? so better KISS.

In a previous post in respond to question by Alex on forex overnight inventory, Claudia did gave here take on this topic, perhaps she can help to validate too..but here is a ref from JD recent webinar which i think a question on forex overnite inventory was briefly answered...if i m not wrong..
http://vimeo.com/24291612

Generally speaking overnight inventory are assume to be in the hands of weak holders until proven otherwise..the degree or excessive-ness may translate to more adverse opposing force, like the liquidation break seen in EU yesterday.

Here is the for your ref..hope it helps..
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  • #2,712
  • May 27, 2011 12:06am May 27, 2011 12:06am
Quoting Aesg
Evak, i see it now, excuse me, my fault...

Thanks.-
No worries...
  • #2,713
  • Edited 2:10am May 27, 2011 12:59am | Edited 2:10am
Quoting mzvega
I’m working on a grading system to guesstimate comm participation. By counting range ext, va, and tails.
Example: previous day, buy tail =1pt , higher va =1pt, attempted dir (TPO+ count or RF+)= 1pt, So total long 3(3lots)that day, so if the next day, sell tails= “-1”, lower va= -1pt, rf+= 1pt, “-1”+ “-1”+ “ 1” Total next day = -1, so from yesterday of 3lots long, plus -1 leaves otf -2 lots still short. Kind of confusing, but it does seem to help when determining if OTF is “too long” or “too short”. This takes lots of observation. I keep most my...
sound like a good idea on scoring points on MP. I would be interested to see how your ideas evolve do share it as & when u can grab an example perhaps all of use here can discuss it further..

I use to keep a score sheet using weighted scoring system for my 3BR (3 bar reversal) in which i look at this 3BR pattern as it occur at critical levels (SR or round nubmers level) & i score according to the each of the 3 bars volume pattern. I use a 5, 3 , 1 weighed scoring..if let say at EU 1.4000 previously 2 sets of 3BR with varied combination I will score this area e.g. a 5 and a 3(edit) & if price revisit this area & find support & reverse with a 3br i score again let say now is a 1(edit)...I would total up this value & score level 1.4 as of current to be 5+3+1 = 9(edit). This is just a way for me to validate if support for future reference if it ever revisit. But now i tend to just keep a mental score..

Anyway just an idea perhaps we an extrapolate & consider...

edit: (some numbers edited above)
  • #2,714
  • May 27, 2011 2:22am May 27, 2011 2:22am
New entry for EU GU...

Simple trend trade on pullback low just prior to London open...entry is made just minutes after open...EU to target POC of daily around 4315. GU to 6500 (its quarter level).

Since inventory is long, the reaction to price on POC, VAH & Asia london high is crucial.....Any adverse price reaction or reluctance of price moving higher could trigger weak holders in Asia long, to liquidate..therefore the previous session high have to be at last taken out. Tempo here plays a part too. If it takes too long panic will run high...

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  • #2,715
  • May 27, 2011 2:26am May 27, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Evak
sound like a good idea on scoring points on MP. I would be interested to see how your ideas evolve do share it as & when u can grab an example perhaps all of use here can discuss it further..

I use to keep a score sheet using weighted scoring system for my 3BR (3 bar reversal) in which i look at this 3BR pattern as it occur at critical levels (SR or round nubmers level) & i score according to the each of the 3 bars volume pattern. I use a 5, 3 , 1 weighed scoring..if let say at EU 1.4000 previously 2 sets of 3BR with varied combination I will...
there are "special situations" p.273 in mind over markets called 3I days others call it 3I & 3R days. This has been taken further, forming a way to track com activity. This is still new to me, I have to learn how to track the data before I can begin to start analyzing the data

3R(responsive) or 3I(inititive) days, They consist of three forms of responsive/inititive activity indicating that the commercial activity is all on the same side of the market. They keep a running total of this activity. This is what i am also trying to do automate in excel.

example: click link choose chapter 59
http://www.macleanreport.com/ccchapters/charting.html


also: click link choose chapter 60
Capital Flow http://www.macleanreport.com/ccchapters/charting.html
has great references to profile distributions, P & b profiles too with definitions to help remind you of what the pictures is telling us.
This is a great site, has a great mp section.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,716
  • May 27, 2011 3:13am May 27, 2011 3:13am
Quoting Evak
Not at the...according to JD if all (or most) of the inventory is below the settle price of the overnight...then is SHORT. Vice versa , if all the settle price is above it then it is Long. If the inventory falls in between the settle price & have a 50/50 tpo count on both side of the settle, then is Neutral.

"It is as simple as that". (That is what JD say when he explain overnight inventory)

It does not really matter where the price have been trading or rotating up or down the ladder withing the value just so long as Where the majority TPO...
Man you are fast on posting that video, I woke up at 4.30am this morning to join them. This video is fantastic.
  • #2,717
  • Edited 4:51am May 27, 2011 4:35am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting Evak
New entry for EU GU...

Simple trend trade on pullback low just prior to London open...entry is made just minutes after open...EU to target POC of daily around 4315. GU to 6500 (its quarter level).

Since inventory is long, the reaction to price on POC, VAH & Asia london high is crucial.....Any adverse price reaction or reluctance of price moving higher could trigger weak holders in Asia long, to liquidate..therefore the previous session high have to be at last taken out. Tempo here plays a part too. If it takes too long panic will run high...

Attachment ...
Panic sets in, within the "A" period if things stalled..u can almost tell is not going north in this case. This is what JD call is it, view in context....

EU out with -11 & GU with +5

Looks like a pull back of sorts, back in to session VAL daily POC levels. Session profile is unbalance now...

Daily profile (Tokyo) Potential references...daily
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  • #2,718
  • May 27, 2011 4:37am May 27, 2011 4:37am
Quoting alexm
Man you are fast on posting that video, I woke up at 4.30am this morning to join them. This video is fantastic.
Indeed...One silly question was asked how overnight inventory was determine or something like that...JD quickly say "next question"...

BUT the video i posted was last week ago...perhaps u are refering to updates to MOM?

PS all the videos are here ladies...
http://vimeo.com/user4051895/videos
  • #2,719
  • May 27, 2011 5:50am May 27, 2011 5:50am
Has anyone tried order book fx mt4 indicator ?

hxxp://orderbookfx.com/howitworks.html
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  • #2,720
  • Edited 6:28am May 27, 2011 6:02am | Edited 6:28am
Just a point to ponder with regards to context..

1: We have selling tail on both sessions...no excess (yet?)
2: London did not takeout Asia's high
3: Asia inventory was long, London inventory is neutral for now (or merely short) but price right now is struggling to take out Asia close.
4: London IB volume was 15% above avg.
5: POC should migrate lower as price should be filling in the LUA (single print seen in Asia)

So what are the odds of NY taking out the highs of today?

Sidenote: if u set your rowheight to 3tick, your tail will be more pronounce then say 5tick...So one needs to qualify this carefully, let say for UJ u would use 2tick coz visually. Of coz screen size estate too impact on the visual of the charts
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