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Quoting the_wizard
You don't.

There are no certainties in this game. All you have are probabilities.

There are certain factors I look for to place the odds in my favour that price will bounce. These include but are not limited too;

- making sure the level is significant s/r (preferably with confluence - particularly the ATR)

- that price would make sense bouncing when I consider the highest timeframe (the D1)

- that the level not been hit too many times (particularly from the same side) in recent activity

- the the level...
Thanks wizard. I pm you to join your webinar few days ago.
I hope you accept me into your webinar.

Final question, you don't refer to any indicator at all? Not even MA and Stochastic?

Do you know any good source of dvd course (other than yourself of course) that you think is a good start to learn the basic of price action trading?
Quoting the_wizard
Simon,

It closed above the lowest low on my feed.

Only marginally but it was still a close above.

Tom
Thanks Tom - it was because it *just* closed (@1.05018) below the lowest low (@1.05048) on my feed (FXPro) that got me thinking I was missing something.

Simon
Quoting Gregg
Sorry Tom, I wasn't at the webinar is the pattern you are referring to a BEOB or is it something other than that?

Thanks.
Gregg
No Gregg,

It is when the market makes a swing HIGH or LOW.

It then pulls away from this over the course of a few bars and then comes back up to challenge it.

If it BREAKS the swing HIGH but fails to CLOSE ABOVE it, it is a signal that the market is likely to turn down.

If it BREAKS the swing LOW but fails to CLOSE BELOW it, it is a signal that the market is likely to turn up.

I look for this pattern on the D1 timeframe.
Please note: I cannot respond to PM's but you can email me via my profile.
Quoting jerryyap
Thanks wizard. I pm you to join your webinar few days ago.
I hope you accept me into your webinar.

Final question, you don't refer to any indicator at all? Not even MA and Stochastic?

Do you know any good source of dvd course (other than yourself of course) that you think is a good start to learn the basic of price action trading?
I look at the MACD for divergence from time to time but I don't keep it on my charts.

In terms of courses, I am afraid I cannot recommend any because I have never done one!
Please note: I cannot respond to PM's but you can email me via my profile.
Martin Pring is pretty solid, I have gone through a couple of his courses but in the end it's pretty much the same as James16 price action.

If you want to have visual material, I would highly recommend you the free guest material from James16.

Quoting jerryyap
Do you know any good source of dvd course (other than yourself of course) that you think is a good start to learn the basic of price action trading?
Quoting the_wizard
I'm buying a break and rounded retest of that.
Tom, would you consider this "rounded"? To touch trade the 1.33 area. It executed very nicely.
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rounded retest ....missed entry .8975...cancelled order
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Quoting the_wizard
No Gregg,

It is when the market makes a swing HIGH or LOW.

It then pulls away from this over the course of a few bars and then comes back up to challenge it.

If it BREAKS the swing HIGH but fails to CLOSE ABOVE it, it is a signal that the market is likely to turn down.

If it BREAKS the swing LOW but fails to CLOSE BELOW it, it is a signal that the market is likely to turn up.

I look for this pattern on the D1 timeframe.
Thanks Tom, that's very helpful
Gregg
Gregg Sniper in training
Quoting Atc
Tom, would you consider this "rounded"? To touch trade the 1.33 area. It executed very nicely.
I'd ideally like a little more space there.
Please note: I cannot respond to PM's but you can email me via my profile.
Quoting the_wizard
I'd ideally like a little more space there.
Beautiful retest on Geppy in confluence with Cable touching 1.6300 handle. Woke up a few minutes 2 late. Quite a good trade IMHO.
Quoting belekas
Beautiful retest on Geppy in confluence with Cable touching 1.6300 handle. Woke up a few minutes 2 late. Quite a good trade IMHO.
LOL, I woke up at 4am, could hardly see straight and head pounding.

Just missed the Cable, I had a bid in at 1.6295.

I've still got bids in GBP/JPY at 132.93.

The Kiwi has rallied hard - I'm fading a break through 0.8119.

I'll crack some EUR/USD short at 1.4213.

Going to load up in Intel at 22.06.

Also going to buy some Crude at 100.15 and the Bund at 124.50.

Looks like it's going to be a busy day.
Please note: I cannot respond to PM's but you can email me via my profile.
  • Post #512
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:44am May 26, 2011 3:05am | Edited at 3:44am
Quoting the_wizard
LOL, I woke up at 4am, could hardly see straight and head pounding.

Just missed the Cable, I had a bid in at 1.6295.

I've still got bids in GBP/JPY at 132.93.

The Kiwi has rallied hard - I'm fading a break through 0.8119.

I'll crack some EUR/USD short at 1.4213.

Going to load up in Intel at 22.06.

Also going to buy some Crude at 100.15 and the Bund at 124.50.

Looks like it's going to be a busy day.
This EU short looks juicy indeed and price is slowly aproaching that level.
Keeping my eye on this.

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usd/jpy . waitng 81.30
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Wizard,

What do you do when price comes to within lets say for instance 3 pips before your entry price and then turns around? Unless you entered 3 pips before your planned entry, the only option then is a slightly late entry. Just wondering what you do in this scenario and what you are looking for if you do decide to take a slightly earlier entry price. Case in point is the EURUSD short just before. You had planned an entry at 4213, but it only came to 4206 before plummeting.
Break and retest of this line should could be a nice trade.
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Looking for short off yellow line here.
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Took a call option here. This is a daily chart.
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Quoting macbow
Wizard,

What do you do when price comes to within lets say for instance 3 pips before your entry price and then turns around? Unless you entered 3 pips before your planned entry, the only option then is a slightly late entry. Just wondering what you do in this scenario and what you are looking for if you do decide to take a slightly earlier entry price. Case in point is the EURUSD short just before. You had planned an entry at 4213, but it only came to 4206 before plummeting.
Hey macbow,

Shame that, wasn't it?

In most cases, I will usually leave it.

Tom
Please note: I cannot respond to PM's but you can email me via my profile.
I did some backtesting on gaps on usdcad from 30th of november 2009.

Win rates are:

0.5 r = 84,37 %
1 r = 65,6 %
2 r = 53.1 %

with an account on 10 000 and risking 2 % of your account on every trade your account would have grown as follows.

Attached Image
File Type: bmp usdcad gap test chart.bmp   961 KB | 1 download


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